Prospect Info: Canucks 2018 Prospect Rankings - #3

[Canadian Canuck]

Juolevi getting underrated.

 

[Verviticus]

you think juolevi should be 3rd?!

 

[M2Beezy]

Should be Gaudette but it wont happen due to AGENDAS

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Went with OJ as he is most valuable asset. Cory Schneider was traded for a 9th overall pick. Demko is worth at most a late 1st so as a prospect is in the Lind/Dahlen area maybe jyst above them but not here. OJ is still worth more probably mid 1st pick.

 

[Verviticus]

i thought about that but i think that overvalues OJ. i feel like it might be hard to get that now just like it might have been hard to get that for jake when he was 20

edit: that said, griffin reinhart...

 

[M2Beezy]

i thought about that but i think that overvalues OJ. i feel like it might be hard to get that now just like it might have been hard to get that for jake when he was 20

edit: that said, griffin reinhart...

Yeah Benning should really be trading more with Edmonton, theyre run by clowns

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

The first three were easy, I expect the ratings to get tighter now

 

[Luck 6]

Went Juolevi. I think he’s still going to prove his haters wrong.

 

[2011 still hurts]

Was between Demko, Gaudette and Dahlen for me. I think out of those three Demko is the safest bet to hit his ceiling with his progression/player profile so far

 

[timw33]

Demko
Gaudette
Dahlen
Juolevi

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Demko
Gaudette
Dahlen
Juolevi
Di Pietro
Jasek
Lind
Woo
Gadjovich
Madden

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Juolevi getting underrated.

I’d have him fourth. We’ve seen his warts but not some of the newer guys also will have flaws.

 

[stampedingviking]

Should be Gaudette but it wont happen due to AGENDAS

Won't be Gaudette because he's just not as good as other players

Demko it is.

 

[M2Beezy]

Won't be Gaudette because he's just not as good as other players

Demko it is.

Yeah whatevs bub

 

[ziploc]

Juolevi
Demko
Dahlen
Gaudette

But really this tier is a bit pick and mix, with a reasonable expectation that they all have an impact in the show.

 

[stampedingviking]

Yeah whatevs bub

I'd have our top 6 as:

Petterson
Demko
Hughes
Juolevi
Dahlen
Goldobin

 

[Captain Bowie]

Should be Gaudette but it wont happen due to AGENDAS

And what agendas would those be?

 

[Cupless44]

Went with OJ as he is most valuable asset. Cory Schneider was traded for a 9th overall pick. Demko is worth at most a late 1st so as a prospect is in the Lind/Dahlen area maybe jyst above them but not here. OJ is still worth more probably mid 1st pick.

I look at it by who has the best chance at having the most impactful NHL career. Juolevi a bit down the list at this point.

 

[nucker11]

Gaudette projects as a high end 3rd liner, dahlen as a 2nd line winger, Juolevi as a #3 Dman, and Demko as a high end starter (however value is low cause the risk of being a goalie prospect).

Pretty easy decision for Juolevi at 3 IMO.

 

[VC]

1. Elias Pettersson
2. Quinn Hughes

Seems like a no brainer at 1 and 2, after that it gets interesting. Count me in as somebody that does these rankings based on value due to various things like position, upside and likelihood of reaching it. While I may think that Demko heading to very good things, I just wouldn't have him ranked until 5 or 6.

For 3 here, I flip-flopped with Juolevi and Gaudette. A 3/4 defender vs. a 2/3 centre. A sliding asset vs. a raising one. Went with Juolevi. I value a 2nd pairing defensemen over a 3rd line centre though in this case it is very close.

Dahlen and Demko are next. Kind of leaning towards Demko, just slightly.

3. Olli Juolevi
4. Adam Gaudette
5. Thatcher Demko
6. Jonathan Dahlen
7. Nikolay Goldobin (does he still count?)
8. Kole Lind
9. Jett Woo
10. Jonah Gadjovich
11. Tyler Madden
12. Lukas Jasek
13. Michael DiPietro
14. Petrus Palmu
15. William Lockwood

or there abouts...

 

[Love]

Voted Demko but I think there’s an argument for Dahlen, Gaudette, and Juolevi as well.

 

[thefeebster]

Poor Dahlen, trending as the #6th prospect. Allsvenskan MVP, pretty much single-handedly promoted his team to the SHL, based on what i watched.

If Juolevi has as much goodwill and trade value in NHL GMs minds as posters in this thread, we have to see about making a deal.

 

[pitseleh]

im not saying demko can't be worth more, im saying right now the average demko on the trade costs about what we used to pick demko four years ago. in general i think that unless you have a kid whos name is johnny vancouver and is powered by the seawall, assets are fungible and should be evaluated on what they contribute to a team in value (similarly, teams should be build by acquiring the highest value possible in all avenues and working top down). i dont think those statements contradict one another

if someone wanted to point out the flaw in my reasoning it would be that we acquired dahlen for an old busted winger, but i think its pretty clear that we fleeced a moron and a competent GM should have rendered more in return

Its an interesting question. I'm not sure trade value is necessarily the whole story when evaluating prospects. One of the problems is that a player's trade value does not necessarily equal a player's value in helping the team win for a variety of reasons, some reasonable (e.g., scarcity value for traits that help you win) and others not (e.g., valuing things that don't help you win). I don't think a prospect should necessarily be penalized because GMs are dumb.

It's the same sort of logic that leads you to taking Virtanen ahead of Ehlers because if Virtanen pans out, his type of player is more expensive to get on the market, even though its not clear that value difference is based on value to the team in terms of helping them win. There may very well have been a stretch of time where Virtanen would have garnered more in a trade than Ehlers, even though Ehlers may have been the better prospect in terms of projected future value to the team.

That said, I think the goalie trade value issue largely reflects the underlying prospect value. I think your next post gets at the nub of it:

our current starting goalie projected very well. thankfully he's now a superstar

There are only 31 spots for a goalie to make a meaningful impact on a team's success, whereas there are at least 90 for each of the forward positions, and 150 on defence. So a top-10 goalie prospect is more like a top-30 centre or top-60 defence prospect in terms of where they should rank on prospect lists, roughly speaking. Plus goalies seem to have more variance in outcome regardless of their performance leading into the NHL. I'm not sure on the latter point, but subjectively it feels right. I feel confident that top-5 goalie prospects bust more often than top-5 forward or defence prospects, for example.

 

[alternate]

Went OJ, but OJ/Dahlen/Gaudette are nearly interchangeable. Really, down to the positional tie breaker: top 4 D>Top 9 C>Top 6 W.

Maybe I'm sleeping a bit on Dahlen. Maybe his season would get more acknowledgement if Pettersson didn't have the season he did, and if Dahlen hadn't "skipped out" on Utica. What's the general consensus on his ceiling? 25+25?

 

[Verviticus]

Its an interesting question. I'm not sure trade value is necessarily the whole story when evaluating prospects. One of the problems is that a player's trade value does not necessarily equal a player's value in helping the team win for a variety of reasons, some reasonable (e.g., scarcity value for traits that help you win) and others not (e.g., valuing things that don't help you win). I don't think a prospect should necessarily be penalized because GMs are dumb.

no, i think you're right. at least on a personal level, i rank prospects on a kind of trading scale - ie: i try to be confident that i would always trade my #4 for my #3, #3 for #2, #6 for any of 5-1, etc. there's definitely a little more nuance than the trade market itself because gms can be capricious and stupid