Prospect Info: Canucks 2018 Prospect Rankings - #3

[Saturated Fats]

1. Elias Pettersson (175/182)

2. Quinn Hughes, D, University of Michigan (7th Overall, 2018)
116/129 votes (89.9%)

2017/18: REG 37GP 5G 24A 29P; WJHC 7GP 0G 3A; WHC 10GP 0G 2A
NCAA All-Rookie Team
NCAA Second All-Star Team
WHC Bronze Medallist
WJHC Bronze Medallist

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[FOurteenS inCisOr]

Tough call between Dahlen and Demko for me. Went Demko.

 

[Saturated Fats]

Thiiis is where it gets interesting!

Close between Gaudette and Demko for me, but went with the Hobey Baker winner.

I could conceivably see Juolevi falling to 7th. Which is both encouraging AND worrisome.

 

[Verviticus]

seems wrong to put demko anywhere near the valuable prospects seeing as he's a goalie. a good goalie prospect? yeah of course. but he's a goalie. hes probably not worth the draft pick (in trade) that we used to pick him, the market's so f***ed up

 

[sting101]

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

seems wrong to put demko anywhere near the valuable prospects seeing as he's a goalie. a good goalie prospect? yeah of course. but he's a goalie. hes probably not worth the draft pick (in trade) that we used to pick him, the market's so ****ed up

If you were building a franchise from scratch, you take Demko every time. Trade value only matters if you don't need to fill that position.

 

[Verviticus]

the only sane way to grade your prospects is to gauge how valuable they are, not how badly you want to build a team around them

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

the only sane way to grade your prospects is to gauge how valuable they are, not how badly you want to build a team around them

Yes, how dare we rank them on their ability. All that matters is tradesssssssss.

 

[HankNDank]

the only sane way to grade your prospects is to gauge how valuable they are, not how badly you want to build a team around them

I'm the opposite. I judge prospects based on how many more wins they will potentially earn our franchise, not for how much we would get for them if we shipped them out. If we had a young vezina caliber goalie singed long term right now, I would vote differently.

 

[Verviticus]

Yes, how dare we rank them on their ability. All that matters is tradesssssssss.

yes, thank you for understanding

 

[Verviticus]

I'm the opposite. I judge prospects based on how many more wins they will potentially earn our franchise, not for how much we would get for them if we shipped them out. If we had a young vezina caliber goalie singed long term right now, I would vote differently.

thats not a good way to rank prospects. it leads to all sorts of insane crap, like cross comparisons between teams being wildly different from individual team lists

we dont rank players like that. tanev and edler aren't our two best players because compared to our trashheap of a d-core they're elite

 

[PhilMick]

Tough call at this point for me, have to decide what parameter makes someone a higher ranked prospect. I think Gaudette and Juolevi are both safe candidates for long careers, but kind of low ceilings. Goldobin could blow up at any minute, and already has a handful of goals in his pocket. I love Dahlen but think he needs another year. And then there's Demko who's awesome with a good pedigree and great AHL resume...but he's a goalie, ew. (I went Demko).

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Should go something like:

1. Pettersson
2. Hughes
3. Demko
4. Juolevi
5. Gaudette
6. Dahlen
7. Lind
8. Woo
9. DiPietro
10. Gadjovich
11. Jasek
12. Madden
13. Rathbone
14. Lockwood
15. Palmu
16. Briseboise
17. Brassard
18. Sautner

Weighing both NHL readiness and overall potential. After Lind/Woo it gets pretty subjective and arguments can be made for interchanging most of the players.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Should go something like:

1. Pettersson
2. Hughes
3. Demko
4. Juolevi
5. Gaudette
6. Dahlen
7. Lind
8. Woo
9. DiPietro
10. Gadjovich
11. Jasek
12. Madden
13. Rathbone
14. Lockwood
15. Palmu
16. Briseboise
17. Brassard
18. Sautner

Weighing both NHL readiness and overall potential. After Lind/Woo it gets pretty subjective and arguments can be made for interchanging most of the players.

Looks about right to me.

Jasek will be interesting to watch.

Watch out for Tanner MacMaster too.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

Looks about right to me.

Jasek will be interesting to watch.

Watch out for Tanner MacMaster too.

Jasek producing at the AHL level is a huge bonus for him. The common thread we see every year is people get overhyped on junior stats, while discounting players that have shown a capacity for pro play.

 

[Captain Bowie]

Definitely Demko.

 

[Lindgren]

I found this one difficult, but I went with Dahlen. I'm guessing that Dahlen will end up as a good second-line winger. Demko could be an elite goaltender, but it remains hard to predict with that position, so for me Dahlen edges him out.

 

[Bitz and Bites]

Going with Demko here as he’s trrnding towards being an elite #1 goaltender which has more value to a team than a good top six winger.

 

[vancityluongo]

seems wrong to put demko anywhere near the valuable prospects seeing as he's a goalie. a good goalie prospect? yeah of course. but he's a goalie. hes probably not worth the draft pick (in trade) that we used to pick him, the market's so ****ed up

the only sane way to grade your prospects is to gauge how valuable they are, not how badly you want to build a team around them

Agreed. I think your first post contradicts your second though.

Demko is probably equal parts likely to be Markstrom vs Schneider with some minimal probability of Alex Auld/backup downside or Roberto Luongo upside on the fringes. Let's just call that the spectrum of possibilities. Even smart GMs get suckered in by that upside. I agree that it would be foolish to trade more than a high 2nd for a guy who has never played in the NHL given how finnicky goalies are, but it really wouldn't take more than a linear projection of what he's already done to just play in the NHL for like, 25 games next season, and do decently well.

That Luongo/Schneider potential is tantalizing. If no-pedigree Antti Raanta can get the return he did from a smart dude after playing a bunch of games behind a stacked defense, then high pedigree Thatcher Demko would return a boatload in the very near/projectable future.

On the other hand, the projected expectation for Adam Gaudette is probably somewhere in the realm of 2010 Sam Gagner and Adam Henrique with an extremely fringe shot at being, I dunno, Bryan Little. Or he could bust and be one of the numerous disposable no-value players the team has recycled through over the past few years, like 2018 Sam Gagner.

In theory, a projected 40-50 point center should be worth boatloads more than a run-of-the-mill starter, given what those two players contribute relative to their expected cap hit above replacement cap hits. But uh, I think trade market value dictates otherwise. Teams are okay with cycling through second line centers but lose their shit recycling through goalies.

On trade value alone, it's probably Juolevi third based on pedigree.

 

[Verviticus]

im not saying demko can't be worth more, im saying right now the average demko on the trade costs about what we used to pick demko four years ago. in general i think that unless you have a kid whos name is johnny vancouver and is powered by the seawall, assets are fungible and should be evaluated on what they contribute to a team in value (similarly, teams should be build by acquiring the highest value possible in all avenues and working top down). i dont think those statements contradict one another

if someone wanted to point out the flaw in my reasoning it would be that we acquired dahlen for an old busted winger, but i think its pretty clear that we fleeced a moron and a competent GM should have rendered more in return

 

[Disappointed EP40]

Should go something like:

1. Pettersson
2. Hughes
3. Demko
4. Juolevi
5. Gaudette
6. Dahlen
7. Lind
8. Woo
9. DiPietro
10. Gadjovich
11. Jasek
12. Madden
13. Rathbone
14. Lockwood
15. Palmu
16. Briseboise
17. Brassard
18. Sautner

Weighing both NHL readiness and overall potential. After Lind/Woo it gets pretty subjective and arguments can be made for interchanging most of the players.

Nailed it. May just slap that up as the final outcome of these votes. #democracysucks

 

[Nucker101]

This is actually pretty tough


Can make a case for Demko, Dahlen, Gaudette, even OJ

 

[Verviticus]

and yes im fully aware that this means the best goaltending prospect ends up never winning these polls. unfortunate, but thats why you shouldnt draft goaltenders high

 

[Disappointed EP40]

seems wrong to put demko anywhere near the valuable prospects seeing as he's a goalie. a good goalie prospect? yeah of course. but he's a goalie. hes probably not worth the draft pick (in trade) that we used to pick him, the market's so ****ed up

He’s projecting very well. that’s the only thing to account for here.

 

[Verviticus]

our current starting goalie projected very well. thankfully he's now a superstar