Prospect Info: Canucks 2017 Prospect Rankings - #8

[MS]

On Virtanen, as ghastly as his season was, it was a major underperformance relative to ability that I believe was based more on conditioning and off-ice stuff than his actual ability. There's no way that the player we saw in Feb-March 2016 should have been that atrocious at a lower level the following year.

If he can't show he has his head screwed on straight and come out as a significant point producer in the AHL to start this season, I'll drop him like a rock in my rankings but at this point I'm still willing to give him another chance and feel he's a better prospect than mediocre talents like Lind and Brisebois.

 

[Slapshot_11]

picked the man child

 

[Kearns]

It looks like Jake Virtanen has the #8 spot in hand. Fair enough.

I genuinely hope he has an outstanding season this year and becomes a pro in every sense of the word, perhaps learning from last April (2016) when he (among others) was called out by team leadership (perhaps for off-ice behavior, as well as) for on-ice apathy.

His success would be great for the team, but to be honest I have wondered about his hockey IQ since before we took him at 6.

 

[VanJack]

Just an observation, but these prospect polls seem to skewed towards drafted players....but at the end of day kids like MacEwan and Chatfield might end up being a lot better pros some of the guys drafted based on early looks at Development Camp...they'll be definitely guys to watch at the Prospects Tournament.

 

[denkiteki]

Virtanen had a stretch of play two seasons ago where he was in the nhl and looked like he belonged. His possession metrics were good too, since I know you are into that sometimes.

Last season was an epic disaster the likes of which none of us expected but he is still the same player who looked like an NHLer at times the season prior and you just hope last year was an anomaly.

It probably wasn't. Don't get me wrong. I think he is probably a bust. But we are talking about our... What.. 8th best prospect? I don't think it's a huge reach here. None of the remaining guys are close to the nhl.

The argument that Virtanen for Lind would be a good trade is a pursuasive one, I will admit. But I am no so sure it is true that this would be widely viewed as a brilliant trade. I think the same people who voted for Jake would be against the trade.

Anyway, I think a vote for either Jake or Lind is justifiable. And no, I don't much care that Jake was drafted 6th overall 3 years ago so shove it.

A few things...

#1 2 seasons ago, he did play well in the NHL but remember it was a 4th line role. On top of that, it was limited minutes... that makes a very inaccurate matrix. The same season, he was also the scapegoat @ WJC. Also remember that season started his waiver clock so he only has 1 season of non-NHL development left (unless you think he can clear waivers? teams will take him on as a project).

#2 You're right, last year Virtanen had a horrible season. He might be the same person but it doesn't exactly mean he's the same player. Rookie Nail Yakupov was a 17 goal scorer... do you really think he has been the same player since? That was in 48 games too... he hasn't scored more than 14 in a season since. There were times last season when Virtanen just looked lost. Also if you're saying he can regain a form as a 4th liner... that isn't exactly a lot of potential.

I do expect Virtanen to do a lot better than last season but you can't completely ignore it on the polls because its a year of wasted development... actually a year of regression. That in theory should drop him a ton in the polls.

If you really ignore draft positions then consider a few things...

Virtanen last season had 19 AHL points, Carcone had 18. Both are liabilities in their own end. Do you think they are close in terms of potential/value? Statistically speaking, they had similar years. They are similar age (Carcone a few months older). Carcone even has an advantage for best CHL season (47/42/89 vs 45/26/71). Of course Virtanen is bigger and is more physical so he should be valued higher but we're not no one is even considering Carcone right now nor likely for the next 5-10 picks.

The other thing to remember is Virtanen had a bad season with Green as his coach... guess who's likely to be 'nucks NHL coach the next few seasons? If he performed poorly in his only season with Green as his coach, it only hurts his value and makes it less likely Green trust him going forward. Remember first impressions are generally important and you only get to make them once... Virtanen made his first impression with Green and it wasn't impressive.

I voted Lind but like i said earlier, i expected Virtanen to win somewhere between 8-10 range because his draft status will get him votes. He's the only 1st rounder left in the polls, was 6th overall, and actually played 65 NHL games. Those are enough justification for fans to vote for him.

Reason i voted Lind is is based on videos, he has high IQ with a high skill set. That's one of the reasons he went from probably a 3rd round prospect to a lot of boards ranking him in the late first/early 2nd. The IQ and work ethic should help with his development. I considered Gadjovich but his skating is the reason i went with Lind over him. Lockwood was also considered but the shinny new toy effect took him out of consideration (for now).

Looks like my votes have lost about 50% of the time so i'm guessing my next vote might win!

My top 10 so far has been:
1) Boeser
2) Pettersson
3) Dahlen (end up Demko)
4) Juolevi (tho i voted Dahlen since he was on the board still)
5) Demko (voted Dahlen again and he finally won)
6) Goldobin (Gaudette won)
7) Gaudette (voted Goldobin who won)
8) Lind (Virtanen looks like he'll win)

That means i'll be voting Lind till he wins (which based on current poll results, i guess he'll win #9).

 

[Knight53]

Lockwood. His speed puts him ahead of Lind who would be my second choice.

Predict Lockwood has a breakout year next season and hopefully, makes the USA team for WJC.

 

[jimmythescot]

While I personally wouldn't vote for him for a while yet, I don't think it's crazy to vote for Virtanen here. I think he had his confidence destroyed by WD and spent most of the last two seasons with no more guidance than 'skate hard' or 'be strong'.

This season is make or break for him, but if the new coach in Utica is good at guiding players, he could still turn it around. Too many don't see that progression isn't linear.

 

[Verviticus]

If he can't show he has his head screwed on straight and come out as a significant point producer in the AHL to start this season, I'll drop him like a rock in my rankings but at this point I'm still willing to give him another chance and feel he's a better prospect than mediocre talents like Lind and Brisebois.

i dont think its really fair to lump lind in with brisebois. you can think lind has a low ceiling but mediocre is harsh. i have no clue what people see in brisebois

 

[Grub]

Picking Subban just because he has the bloodlines as well as impressive numbers with Utica. Hopefully he gets a chance this year to show us what he can do. I think he can really carry our power play.

 

[Grub]

A few things...

#1 2 seasons ago, he did play well in the NHL but remember it was a 4th line role. On top of that, it was limited minutes... that makes a very inaccurate matrix. The same season, he was also the scapegoat @ WJC. Also remember that season started his waiver clock so he only has 1 season of non-NHL development left (unless you think he can clear waivers? teams will take him on as a project).

#2 You're right, last year Virtanen had a horrible season. He might be the same person but it doesn't exactly mean he's the same player. Rookie Nail Yakupov was a 17 goal scorer... do you really think he has been the same player since? That was in 48 games too... he hasn't scored more than 14 in a season since. There were times last season when Virtanen just looked lost. Also if you're saying he can regain a form as a 4th liner... that isn't exactly a lot of potential.

I do expect Virtanen to do a lot better than last season but you can't completely ignore it on the polls because its a year of wasted development... actually a year of regression. That in theory should drop him a ton in the polls.

If you really ignore draft positions then consider a few things...

Virtanen last season had 19 AHL points, Carcone had 18. Both are liabilities in their own end. Do you think they are close in terms of potential/value? Statistically speaking, they had similar years. They are similar age (Carcone a few months older). Carcone even has an advantage for best CHL season (47/42/89 vs 45/26/71). Of course Virtanen is bigger and is more physical so he should be valued higher but we're not no one is even considering Carcone right now nor likely for the next 5-10 picks.

The other thing to remember is Virtanen had a bad season with Green as his coach... guess who's likely to be 'nucks NHL coach the next few seasons? If he performed poorly in his only season with Green as his coach, it only hurts his value and makes it less likely Green trust him going forward. Remember first impressions are generally important and you only get to make them once... Virtanen made his first impression with Green and it wasn't impressive.

I voted Lind but like i said earlier, i expected Virtanen to win somewhere between 8-10 range because his draft status will get him votes. He's the only 1st rounder left in the polls, was 6th overall, and actually played 65 NHL games. Those are enough justification for fans to vote for him.

Reason i voted Lind is is based on videos, he has high IQ with a high skill set. That's one of the reasons he went from probably a 3rd round prospect to a lot of boards ranking him in the late first/early 2nd. The IQ and work ethic should help with his development. I considered Gadjovich but his skating is the reason i went with Lind over him. Lockwood was also considered but the shinny new toy effect took him out of consideration (for now).

Looks like my votes have lost about 50% of the time so i'm guessing my next vote might win!

My top 10 so far has been:
1) Boeser
2) Pettersson
3) Dahlen (end up Demko)
4) Juolevi (tho i voted Dahlen since he was on the board still)
5) Demko (voted Dahlen again and he finally won)
6) Goldobin (Gaudette won)
7) Gaudette (voted Goldobin who won)
8) Lind (Virtanen looks like he'll win)

That means i'll be voting Lind till he wins (which based on current poll results, i guess he'll win #9).

Had the same top 8 as you but I voted Gaudette ahead of Goldobin. Dahlen should be number 3 and I think we will see why this upcoming season.

 

[Grub]

Basically all I took from that was that Jake had a stretch of games a couple years ago where he looked like he belonged in the league. Not that he was good, but just that he looked like he belonged. You also state how awful he was last year, but seemingly appear to discount that.

I agree with Y2K here... he did have that stretch when he was dominant. This year will really determine where Jake is IMO. Since he has trimmed down to 215 Points, I am positive we will see an improvement with Jake.

 

[settinguptheplay]

[MOD]

I voted Virtanen for some of the same reasons listed just above. He has shown something in this league. It may have only lasted a month but that is one more month than many of our other prospects. Last year was a **** show all around this franchise. A kid pressured into a situation where he had to perform but a coach unwilling to give him some rope. I realize his fitness was junk but I tend to lay that blame on the staff that was supposedly training him last summer. This franchise has done all it can to derail Virtanen.

He deserves anther year before we start mocking him as a player. He is not yet a bust. He may have lost much of his perceived ceiling but he is still very deserving of a top 10 spot. Not just because of his draft position.

 

[iceburg]

Looks like Virtanen has taken some poster energy from Sbisa...not surprising in the closed system of HFBoards.
So many writing this kid off before his 21st birthday. He belongs in Utica this coming year where I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 0.6ish ppg. I've said this before, but only Ehlers, Nylander, and Larkin in the top 20 can clearly be considered draft wins over Virtanen at this stage. And there is only really a credible argument for Ehlers and Nylander because several teams passed over Larkin.
While guys like RItchie and Perlini are trending better, it is still way to early to lock them in as better picks. Basically need 2 more seasons to make those conclusions.

Anyway, Virtanen is a reasonable ranking at #8. But I understand shinny new toy syndrome.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Probably Virtanen went a bit early but I still think he should be in the top 10. I picked him here but I think Lind should be 8.
In my view once you get past the top 10 prospects the odds of being a regular NHL player are pretty low. I still think Virtanen has a decent chance of becoming a 4th liner who plays physical. Picking him around 9 or 10 is probably about right.
Its tempting to pick the newer guys we drafted but outside of a couple of them like Lind and Gadjovich they aren't likely to be NHL players and even Gadjovich has a long way to go. In my mind it's less a case of overrating Virtanen (who I don't see as having big upside) and more a case of some people overrating other prospects who have probably bigger question marks on becoming NHL players.

 

[Gaunce4gm]

I think this is a great problem to be discussing.

2 years ago he was our #1 prospect ahead of McCann, Demko, and Shinkaruk.


The fact that he's our #8 prospect and we still haven't reached


Lind
Gadjovich
Brisebois
Subban
Lockwood
Palmu


Says a lot about our prospect depth. We still need young D in a bad way but it's been a big improvement especially considering we lost McCann via trade

 

[Fork]

if someone offered lind in a trade for virtanen would people accept?

virtanen has underperformed at EVERY level he has played at, WHL, world juniors, nhl, ahl

if thats not a bust then what is?

 

[MS]

I think this is a great problem to be discussing.

2 years ago he was our #1 prospect ahead of McCann, Demko, and Shinkaruk.


The fact that he's our #8 prospect and we still haven't reached


Lind
Gadjovich
Brisebois
Subban
Lockwood
Palmu


Says a lot about our prospect depth. We still need young D in a bad way but it's been a big improvement especially considering we lost McCann via trade

You're acting like Virtanen now has the same value as Virtanen in 2015.

2015 Virtanen would have been voted in at #3 in this poll. His stock has dropped considerably.

 

[y2kcanucks]

[MOD]

I voted Virtanen for some of the same reasons listed just above. He has shown something in this league. It may have only lasted a month but that is one more month than many of our other prospects. Last year was a **** show all around this franchise. A kid pressured into a situation where he had to perform but a coach unwilling to give him some rope. I realize his fitness was junk but I tend to lay that blame on the staff that was supposedly training him last summer. This franchise has done all it can to derail Virtanen.

He deserves anther year before we start mocking him as a player. He is not yet a bust. He may have lost much of his perceived ceiling but he is still very deserving of a top 10 spot. Not just because of his draft position.

So let me get this straight...Virtanen should be voted here because he's shown something in the league (and the others on the list have not). By that definition should Virtanen not be voted ahead of Elias Pettersson? Thatcher Demko? Jonathan Dahlen? They haven't shown anything in the NHL, but Virtanen has.

As someone else mentioned, Michael Carcone put up the same offensive production as Virtanen this past season. Carcone and Virtanen are the same age. Carcone isn't even on this list, let alone being voted into the top 10. That proves my point that Virtanen is only being voted because of his draft spot. If not for that draft spot (and all the media attention that comes with it) nobody cares about Jake Virtanen being in this organization. And like I said, if people don't want to admit that and instead say that he looked competent during a one month stretch a couple years ago, well then why isn't he ahead of Pettersson, Demko, and Dahlen? If we're now looking at other factors...what are they? And why would those other factors not apply to Lind, Gadjovich, Subban, and Dipietro?

 

[ChilliBilly]

So let me get this straight...Virtanen should be voted here because he's shown something in the league (and the others on the list have not). By that definition should Virtanen not be voted ahead of Elias Pettersson? Thatcher Demko? Jonathan Dahlen? They haven't shown anything in the NHL, but Virtanen has.

As someone else mentioned, Michael Carcone put up the same offensive production as Virtanen this past season. Carcone and Virtanen are the same age. Carcone isn't even on this list, let alone being voted into the top 10. That proves my point that Virtanen is only being voted because of his draft spot. If not for that draft spot (and all the media attention that comes with it) nobody cares about Jake Virtanen being in this organization. And like I said, if people don't want to admit that and instead say that he looked competent during a one month stretch a couple years ago, well then why isn't he ahead of Pettersson, Demko, and Dahlen? If we're now looking at other factors...what are they? And why would those other factors not apply to Lind, Gadjovich, Subban, and Dipietro?

I love how you and many others are saying the majority of people voting here are wrong. I voted for Virt, because he has shown he can play in the league, and has the tools. He has dropped to this point because he is not progressing. That said, this is pretty much his last chance to prove the majority right and the naysayers wrong. He needs to step up in all ways this season.

 

[MS]

So let me get this straight...Virtanen should be voted here because he's shown something in the league (and the others on the list have not). By that definition should Virtanen not be voted ahead of Elias Pettersson? Thatcher Demko? Jonathan Dahlen? They haven't shown anything in the NHL, but Virtanen has.

As someone else mentioned, Michael Carcone put up the same offensive production as Virtanen this past season. Carcone and Virtanen are the same age. Carcone isn't even on this list, let alone being voted into the top 10. That proves my point that Virtanen is only being voted because of his draft spot. If not for that draft spot (and all the media attention that comes with it) nobody cares about Jake Virtanen being in this organization. And like I said, if people don't want to admit that and instead say that he looked competent during a one month stretch a couple years ago, well then why isn't he ahead of Pettersson, Demko, and Dahlen? If we're now looking at other factors...what are they? And why would those other factors not apply to Lind, Gadjovich, Subban, and Dipietro?

Come on. Obviously people aren't looking at JUST his decent stretch two seasons ago, they're just taking it into consideration. To act like saying 'I'm factoring this into my rating of him' means 'this means everything and he should thus be ahead of Pettersson' is being intentionally obtuse.

Likewise, Virtanen clearly has a superior skillset to Carcone and is a far better NHL prospect, and it should be obvious why he's rated well ahead. Do you have Petrus Palmu and Pierre-Luc Dubois rated similarly?

The guy's season last year was a complete disaster. Absolutely. But it didn't turn a previously promising player into worthless garbage in 6 months. Doubly so because his problems appeared to be more off-ice issues.

 

[rune74]

So let me get this straight...Virtanen should be voted here because he's shown something in the league (and the others on the list have not). By that definition should Virtanen not be voted ahead of Elias Pettersson? Thatcher Demko? Jonathan Dahlen? They haven't shown anything in the NHL, but Virtanen has.

As someone else mentioned, Michael Carcone put up the same offensive production as Virtanen this past season. Carcone and Virtanen are the same age. Carcone isn't even on this list, let alone being voted into the top 10. That proves my point that Virtanen is only being voted because of his draft spot. If not for that draft spot (and all the media attention that comes with it) nobody cares about Jake Virtanen being in this organization. And like I said, if people don't want to admit that and instead say that he looked competent during a one month stretch a couple years ago, well then why isn't he ahead of Pettersson, Demko, and Dahlen? If we're now looking at other factors...what are they? And why would those other factors not apply to Lind, Gadjovich, Subban, and Dipietro?

[MOD]

I think that some people have hopes that last year was a growing pains year, at one point he was getting 2 or more breakaways a game, but with no finish. This isn't good obviously, but hopefully if he converts on some of those chances then we have a different conversation now. Let's hope he comes in with a good attitude and a desire to win this year, kids got the physical tools lets get them working.

 

[Pavel96]

It wasn't just his D+2 season, every single season after being drafted has been a disappointment. D+1 he didn't really improve that much in the WHL and his goals per game dropped by about 35%, D+2 he was rushed to the NHL and looked good at times but was mostly out of his depth, and his D+3...well...it was a complete disaster.

People need to stop looking at where he was drafted and start looking at his performance over the years.

Disappointment in what way? Since he was drafted he has hung out with Justin Beiber, played a full year in the NHL, went to disneyland with an actress, has much more noteworthy instagram pics/social media, has gotten some cool tattoos, and he's a local celebrity. Sounds fun!

 

[y2kcanucks]

Come on. Obviously people aren't looking at JUST his decent stretch two seasons ago, they're just taking it into consideration. To act like saying 'I'm factoring this into my rating of him' means 'this means everything and he should thus be ahead of Pettersson' is being intentionally obtuse.

Likewise, Virtanen clearly has a superior skillset to Carcone and is a far better NHL prospect, and it should be obvious why he's rated well ahead. Do you have Petrus Palmu and Pierre-Luc Dubois rated similarly?

The guy's season last year was a complete disaster. Absolutely. But it didn't turn a previously promising player into worthless garbage in 6 months. Doubly so because his problems appeared to be more off-ice issues.

Except that's basically what people are saying. I haven't read much else about why people are voting Virtanen this high.

Did he look ready for the NHL in his Draft +2 season? Not at all. Did he take a step back in his Draft +1 season in the WHL from when he was drafted? Yes he did. Did he look like complete garbage in his Draft +3 season? Absolutely.

Now I agree he does have a nice skillset, but plenty of players have nice skillsets and they never put it together. Nothing we've seen from Virtanen suggests he will put it together.

I believe it was you who wrote off Shinkaruk after his poor Draft +2 season in the AHL, yet you're willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Virtanen?

Again, I'm not saying Virtanen is complete garbage, just that he's been passed by several better prospects in our system.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

So let me get this straight...Virtanen should be voted here because he's shown something in the league (and the others on the list have not). By that definition should Virtanen not be voted ahead of Elias Pettersson? Thatcher Demko? Jonathan Dahlen? They haven't shown anything in the NHL, but Virtanen has.

Dear Lord.

We are talking about the 8th best prospect, and comparing him to other players who are frankly longshots. Compared to these players, yes I think his previously demonstrated ability at the nhl merits consideration. Where should he be ranked? Last? Not a prospect? Frankly none of the players lower than 5 have anything but a decent chance of becoming anything. You are just being deliberately daft here. I am ranking Virtanen as a longshot slightly ahead of a few other longshot due to his previous demonstrated ability. I am not ranking him above Pettersson, who I do not consider a long shot.

As someone else mentioned, Michael Carcone put up the same offensive production as Virtanen this past season. Carcone and Virtanen are the same age.

That was ME who mentioned that, and I am the one arguing with you. Does that not indicate something to you?

 

[Karl Childers*]

Except that's basically what people are saying. I haven't read much else about why people are voting Virtanen this high.

Did he look ready for the NHL in his Draft +2 season? Not at all. Did he take a step back in his Draft +1 season in the WHL from when he was drafted? Yes he did. Did he look like complete garbage in his Draft +3 season? Absolutely.

Now I agree he does have a nice skillset, but plenty of players have nice skillsets and they never put it together. Nothing we've seen from Virtanen suggests he will put it together.

I believe it was you who wrote off Shinkaruk after his poor Draft +2 season in the AHL, yet you're willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Virtanen?

Again, I'm not saying Virtanen is complete garbage, just that he's been passed by several better prospects in our system.

And he isn't wrong. Shinkaruk looks like a pretty mediocre prospect at this time coming up on 23. Virtanen is 21. He has this season to get his sh!t together.