Prospect Info: Canucks 2017 Prospect Rankings - #7

[Catamarca Livin]

No, the Virtanen votes really are because of his draft position. Ignore his draft position and looking at him for what he is: a draft +3 player who didn't even crack 20 points in 65 games in the AHL this past year. Players who perform that poorly typically don't end up as top 6 forwards in the NHL. Hell, players who perform that poorly typically don't end up in the NHL period. He's teetering on the brink of being an outright bust. I'm willing to give him another year to see where he ends up, but unless he becomes a PPG player in the AHL this upcoming season I'll be ready to write him off. Terrible draft pick, and not a very good prospect at this point.

Went with Goldobin here. At 8, 9, and 10 I'd be looking at Jordan Subban, Kole Lind, and either DiPietro or Gadjovich.

I would still say Virtanen is a better prospect than Gaunce. We saw Virtanen play well in the Nhl at times at 19. It is very possible that he improves from when he was 19 unless he is like Shinkaruk who just stagnated, that is possible as well. I think Goldy and Virtanan are very similar prospects at this point. It is a make or break year for them.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I would still say Virtanen is a better prospect than Gaunce. We saw Virtanen play well in the Nhl at times at 19. It is very possible that he improves from when he was 19 unless he is like Shinkaruk who just stagnated, that is possible as well. I think Goldy and Virtanan are very similar prospects at this point. It is a make or break year for them.

At this point I don't know that I would say Virtanen is a better prospect than Gaunce was.

 

[Nuckles]

At this point I don't know that I would say Virtanen is a better prospect than Gaunce was.

Gaunce did have a more productive 20 year old season in the AHL...

Virtanen needs to bounce back hard to consider him having 2nd or even 3rd line potential. He was on pace for 22 points over a full AHL season, and he pretty much needs to be close to a point per game pace this season.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Fun with facts:

Jake Virtanen August 17, 1996
Utica Comets 65 GP | 9 G | 10 A | 19 Pts

Michael Carcone May 19, 1996
Utica Comets 61 GP | 5 G | 13 A | 18 Pts

Yayyyyy

 

[ChilliBilly]

No, the Virtanen votes really are because of his draft position. Ignore his draft position and looking at him for what he is: a draft +3 player who didn't even crack 20 points in 65 games in the AHL this past year. Players who perform that poorly typically don't end up as top 6 forwards in the NHL. Hell, players who perform that poorly typically don't end up in the NHL period. He's teetering on the brink of being an outright bust. I'm willing to give him another year to see where he ends up, but unless he becomes a PPG player in the AHL this upcoming season I'll be ready to write him off. Terrible draft pick, and not a very good prospect at this point.

Went with Goldobin here. At 8, 9, and 10 I'd be looking at Jordan Subban, Kole Lind, and either DiPietro or Gadjovich.

You realize i voted Goldy here. I think Virts is next because he has shown he can play in the NHL. A disappointment yes, and the wrong pick, but I still think he has a chance to be an NHL'er. I understand your argument ... none of people you propose is a lock to ever play as a regular in the nhl.

No offense chris, but you tend to be either black or white, never gray. Virts is grey.

 

[denkiteki]

I would still say Virtanen is a better prospect than Gaunce. We saw Virtanen play well in the Nhl at times at 19. It is very possible that he improves from when he was 19 unless he is like Shinkaruk who just stagnated, that is possible as well. I think Goldy and Virtanan are very similar prospects at this point. It is a make or break year for them.

Not sure about that. Gaunce had a very productive CHL career, plays a more valuable position (C generally considered more valuable than wingers more so since its easier for a C prospect to transition to W than the other way around). Of course Gaunce was also head and shoulder above where Virtanen is defensively. A 20 yr old Gaunce might be better defensively than Virtanen @ his prime.

 

[alternate]

Went Goldy here, and will go Virtanen next. His production stunk last year, but there was growth as far as being a professional goes. For pure tools, nobody on the list holds a candle to Jake. He showed as a 19YO that his skating, shot, and physicality can transfer to the NHL. Only question is whether he can figure out the mental side of things.

This is something that comes with maturity. Physically, he's advanced beyond his years maturity wise, and so he's been able to get away with taking short cuts. But mentally, he has a lot of maturing to do still. Last season there was evidence of growth in this department, so I'm voting that this coming season the two elements (physical and mental maturity) finally come together. His development path might be atypical, and sure we'd all prefer if he'd had a Cody Hodgson type D+1 and D+2, put there's still 25 goal upside, and a speed/size/physicality combination that could be a post-season nightmare for the opposition.

 

[y2kcanucks]

You realize i voted Goldy here. I think Virts is next because he has shown he can play in the NHL. A disappointment yes, and the wrong pick, but I still think he has a chance to be an NHL'er. I understand your argument ... none of people you propose is a lock to ever play as a regular in the nhl.

No offense chris, but you tend to be either black or white, never gray. Virts is grey.

14 points in 65 games is proving you can play in the NHL?

 

[Nucker101]

Lockwood for me(Lind a close 2nd), I like Goldobin's skill set but I have my doubts that he'll put it all together. Hope I'm wrong.

Outside of EP, all the new guys are being underrated in these polls.

 

[Kryten]

14 points in 65 games is proving you can play in the NHL?

As a 4th line winger yes

 

[Scygen]

Went with Goldobin here. At 8, 9, and 10 I'd be looking at Jordan Subban, Kole Lind, and either DiPietro or Gadjovich.

I totally understand your skepticism of Virtanen, he most definitely is on his last year of hope with this organization. But I think he has a higher NHL chance then Subban does.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

As a 4th line winger yes

Developing into Jack skille is absolutely without value. Can

 

[rune74]

Not sure about that. Gaunce had a very productive CHL career, plays a more valuable position (C generally considered more valuable than wingers more so since its easier for a C prospect to transition to W than the other way around). Of course Gaunce was also head and shoulder above where Virtanen is defensively. A 20 yr old Gaunce might be better defensively than Virtanen @ his prime.

Hasn't Virtanen scored more then Guance at the NHL level with way fewer games?

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Hasn't Virtanen scored more then Guance at the NHL level with way fewer games?

 

[denkiteki]

Hasn't Virtanen scored more then Guance at the NHL level with way fewer games?

Not way fewer, its 77 GP vs 65.

A huge difference however is Gaunce is a complete player who is actually an asset defensively. Virtanen is a huge liability in his own end. Also quite a few of Virtanen's points were actually a result of playing with Horvat/Baertschi (and McCann at some point too). Gaunce hasn't played much (if at all) with those players. I think he might have played a bit with Baertschi but we all know Baertschi without Horvat is a different player...

Also i did say CHL not NHL.

 

[iceburg]

You know what's really nice, each of these top 7 prospects have a legitimate shot at having a solid NHL career. Maybe not all of them will reach their potential and other lower down may move up. But it's really cool to have expectations that prospects will have NHL careers rather than just unfounded hope that some lower level prospects will surprise.

It wasn't too long ago that everybody was hoping that Grenier could make the leap.

 

[m9]

Not way fewer, its 77 GP vs 65.

A huge difference however is Gaunce is a complete player who is actually an asset defensively. Virtanen is a huge liability in his own end. Also quite a few of Virtanen's points were actually a result of playing with Horvat/Baertschi (and McCann at some point too). Gaunce hasn't played much (if at all) with those players. I think he might have played a bit with Baertschi but we all know Baertschi without Horvat is a different player...

Also i did say CHL not NHL.

A 'complete player' would be one that has shown some sort of sign of offense in the NHL, which Gaunce has not. Gaunce also played with Horvat down the stretch of his first season.

Virtanen may have been the worst defensive player I've seen at the NHL level for the first half of his rookie season. Just looked absolutely lost defensively, like he had never played the sport before. But, to his credit he did get better later in the year. I'm not sure where he is at now after Utica, but I think he can be an effective defensive player.

 

[denkiteki]

A 'complete player' would be one that has shown some sort of sign of offense in the NHL, which Gaunce has not. Gaunce also played with Horvat down the stretch of his first season.

Virtanen may have been the worst defensive player I've seen at the NHL level for the first half of his rookie season. Just looked absolutely lost defensively, like he had never played the sport before. But, to his credit he did get better later in the year. I'm not sure where he is at now after Utica, but I think he can be an effective defensive player.

The offense hasn't shown in Gaunce yet but that doesn't mean he doesn't have offensive skills. It doesn't help when he spent last year playing with other players who generally don't score or shouldn't be in the NHL.

Also take a closer look at his stats...

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?season=2015-16&sit=5v5&pid=1531&withagainst=true

His rookie season, Virtanen spent more time on the ice with Baertschi and Horvat than anyone else.

Gaunce did get some time with Horvat the same season (and scored his only goal during that time) but overall minutes with Horvat is 72:21 vs 218:52. The other thing to note is majority of Virtanen's points came with Bae as well... and Horvat/Bae seems to play better together. Gaunce played 5:37 with Bae where as Virtanen played 214:11 (and scoring 5 of his 11 points with Bae on the ice).

Then take '16-17 stats, when Virtanen played (not a ton in the NHL) he once again played mostly with the Horvat and Bae. Gaunce? He played mostly with Skillie and Chaput. The next forward on the list? Megna and Suter... not exactly with players you expect to score much. Chaput had a grand total of 8 points last season and played with the Sedins for over 100 minutes... he actually scored at a better rate than Gaunce than the Sedins so that gives you an idea how much "offensive" talent Gaunce was playing with.

Not saying Gaunce would produce a ton or anything but if you dive deeper into his advanced stats, you'll see his lack of production has more to do with his line-mates (or lack there of). Also note that despite Virtanen spending the entire season with Utica, he played more (than double) with Horvat/Bae than Gaunce did last season.

 

[m9]

The offense hasn't shown in Gaunce yet but that doesn't mean he doesn't have offensive skills. It doesn't help when he spent last year playing with other players who generally don't score or shouldn't be in the NHL.

Also take a closer look at his stats...

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?season=2015-16&sit=5v5&pid=1531&withagainst=true

His rookie season, Virtanen spent more time on the ice with Baertschi and Horvat than anyone else.

Gaunce did get some time with Horvat the same season (and scored his only goal during that time) but overall minutes with Horvat is 72:21 vs 218:52. The other thing to note is majority of Virtanen's points came with Bae as well... and Horvat/Bae seems to play better together. Gaunce played 5:37 with Bae where as Virtanen played 214:11 (and scoring 5 of his 11 points with Bae on the ice).

Then take '16-17 stats, when Virtanen played (not a ton in the NHL) he once again played mostly with the Horvat and Bae. Gaunce? He played mostly with Skillie and Chaput. The next forward on the list? Megna and Suter... not exactly with players you expect to score much. Chaput had a grand total of 8 points last season and played with the Sedins for over 100 minutes... he actually scored at a better rate than Gaunce than the Sedins so that gives you an idea how much "offensive" talent Gaunce was playing with.

Not saying Gaunce would produce a ton or anything but if you dive deeper into his advanced stats, you'll see his lack of production has more to do with his line-mates (or lack there of). Also note that despite Virtanen spending the entire season with Utica, he played more (than double) with Horvat/Bae than Gaunce did last season.

Nothing in those stats helps a case that Gaunce is a complete player or is a useful offensive player. I never said that Gaunce has no offensive upside, just that he is not a complete player right now. Gaunce's offensive production needs to get better, just like Virtanen's defensive play needs to get better.

The narrative about putting Gaunce's offensive struggles on his linemates was in here all season. The problem is, I watched the games and know that Gaunce was just as much a part of the offensive struggles as those other guys. None of them created anything, with the exception of Jack Skille who had flashes of creating offense. As soon as Reid Boucher was put in Gaunce's place later in the season, you saw more offense out of that line than you had all season as well.

I find myself often on the anti-Gaunce side of things on this board, and it's not that I dislike the player or anything. I just feel like the analytics, numbers, and eye test back up that Gaunce is a good defensive player but unfortunately still a completely useless offensive player. I wish that I was watching him play on the 4th line last year and saw a player that was clearly better than his linemates, but I didn't.. because he wasn't.

 

[Pip]

I saw Gaunce pushing the play forward while creating chances for himself and his linemates.

 

[Verviticus]

yeah i mean i watched gaunce and he played well. dont you people watch the games? too much nerding over stats here

 

[rune74]

I saw Gaunce pushing the play forward while creating chances for himself and his linemates.

But he didn't put up the points...much like the criticism Virtanen had in the AHL...doesn't matter if he is playing well if he doesn't put up any points at all.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

But he didn't put up the points...much like the criticism Virtanen had in the AHL...doesn't matter if he is playing well if he doesn't put up any points at all.

You can all play well in the nhl without putting up points.

If you can't put up points in the ahl you can't play in the nhl.

 

[denkiteki]

yeah i mean i watched gaunce and he played well. dont you people watch the games? too much nerding over stats here

Not nerding over stats but using stats as a supplement to what you see.

After all thats why fans goto forums because they are invested in their teams and if you want more insights then you need to supplement your knowledge.

Again im just saying Gaunce is a more complete player not a better offensive player or even top 6 forward. Im also pointing out that Virtanen out producing Gaunce is misleading and the numbers suggest it was due to him playing with better offensive players.

 

[Pip]

But he didn't put up the points...much like the criticism Virtanen had in the AHL...doesn't matter if he is playing well if he doesn't put up any points at all.

I don't see any comparison to Virtanen.