Can a team realistically challenge for the cup without drafting in the top 5?

[Perfect_Drug]

Rather than focus on Draft Picks.


Cup winning Teams need several players capable of winning major individual hardware.


Hart-Art Ross- Lindsay winning Penguins beat the Norris-Vezina winning Predators.

Chicago's Art Ross/Hart/Norris winning team, beat the Norris/Vezina/Selke Bruins.


If you don't have several superstars, you don't have a chance.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Rather than focus on Draft Picks.


Cup winning Teams need several players capable of winning major individual hardware.


Hart-Art Ross- Lindsay winning Penguins beat the Norris-Vezina winning Predators.

Chicago's Art Ross/Hart/Norris winning team, beat the Norris/Vezina/Selke Bruins.


If you don't have several superstars, you don't have a chance.

Pens got their 2 Hart/Lindsay/Art Ross winners 1st and 2nd overall
Hawks got 2 of their 3 Hart/Lindsay/Norris/Selke/Art Ross winners 1st and 3rd overall
Kings got 1 of their 2 Selke/Norris winners 2nd overall

5/7 of the award winning big guns on the big three were top-3 picks so your logic kind of crumbles

 

[613Leafer]

It just happened with Nashville.

They drafted top 5 in 2013.

Anyway, I think if it look around the league, probably ~25 teams have a top 5 pick they drafted on their team, or the resulting trade value from a pick that high.

Teams still have top 5 players from the late 1990s playing (e.g. Sedins, Thornton, etc). That's ~20 drafts ago, which is ~100 players drafted top 5.

 

[Crede777]

Seems to me to be a question of necessary vs. sufficient.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Pens got their 2 Hart/Lindsay/Art Ross winners 1st and 2nd overall
Hawks got 2 of their 3 Hart/Lindsay/Norris/Selke/Art Ross winners 1st and 3rd overall
Kings got 1 of their 2 Selke/Norris winners 2nd overall

5/7 of the award winning big guns on the big three were top-3 picks so your logic kind of crumbles

I don't think it crumbles.


Just shows that you can occasionally get those top talents outside of a top 5 pick.

Subban and Rinne had more to do with Nashville's run than RyJo. Also I'd imagine most teams have a top 5 pick playing somewhere in their lineup. Even if they're not key contributors.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

2015 Bolts? What?

IMO it's irrelevant. If a team is in the SCF, they have a realistic chance to win the Cup. I don't think it should be judged in retrospect either. The outcome is separate from their chances going in.

The 2015 Bolts were carried by a lucky/hot Triplets line. Also they had freakishly good injury luck until the finals when their luck fell back down to earth as TyJo and Bish got hurt.

Also at that time Hedman was just becoming an elite defenseman.


So, for a SCF team, we were Garbo.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The question needs to be refined, imo. It's really looking at whether you can build a cup contender without a top five pick. It should be restricted to top five picks drafted by that team or traded for with other top five picks.
For example, if the Ducks signed Yakupov as a 13th forward and win the Cup they built that team without top five picks. But if a team traded a top five pick for another top five pick then they should not qualify.
But like I said earlier this is mostly a theoretical question as only a very few teams don't have top five picks. Probably top two or three picks would give more data.

 

[WesMcCauley]

I considered that example, but I think they were the exception, not the rule. Moreover, even though they made the finals, they didn't put up much of a fight. They were shutout their last two games.

NYR made the final without a top 5 pick drafted by NYR. Had Nash(1st overall by CBJ) though.

 

[Maukkis]

E.Kane-Turris-Niederreiter
Vanek-Spezza-Gaborik
B.Schenn-R.Strome-E.Lindholm
Ladd-Bennett-Yakupov

Alzner-Gudbranson
Bouwmeester-Johnson
Hickey-L.Schenn

Lehtonen
Luongo

I doubt you can do worse with only using active players.

 

[izlez]

I don't know how you can look at all of the recent examples and come to the conclusion that drafting in the top-5 is necessary.


Ryan Johansen, Brad Stuart, and Nathan Horton being mentioned?
The 7th or so best player on each team is really the thing that put it all together and made it possible? And those level of players could not possibly be found outside the top 5?

This is much less proof of it being a necessity, and much more that 100% of NHL teams will one way or another have a player that was a high pick.

 

[GordieHowsUrBreath]

And "bad" teams make it like the 2015 Lightning, 2012 Devils and 2016 Sharks.

the lightning and sharks were very good

it's especially funny to see people say the sharks weren't good when most of the experts and 99% of this forum predicted they would beat the pens for the cup

 

[meenamjah]

Let's just put it this way, the only way to get an elite center is with a top 5 pick. Every other position is a lot easier to aquire, and it's pretty much impossible to win the cup without one.

it's rare, but you can trade for one. thornton and ryjo come to mind.

 

[CrypTic]

it's rare, but you can trade for one. thornton and ryjo come to mind.

RyJo doesn't count bc he was traded for a top 5 player (Jones was #4). Thornton should count or Seguin since they weren't traded for top players.

 

[boredmale]

The Anaheim, Boston or Detroit model of winning the cup is much harder then the Pittsburgh, Chicago or LA Model. All that being said it is possible you just need one or 2 lucky picks. It should also be noted in the case of Anaheim or Boston you need to luck out on the UFA market

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

How many teams don't have a top 5 draft pick?

 

[smoneil]

NYR made the final without a top 5 pick drafted by NYR. Had Nash(1st overall by CBJ) though.

And Nash was a total passenger that year, too. The Rangers are a great modern example. Multiple trips to the ECF and a trip to the SCF in recent years. They haven't drafted top 5 since the O6 era.

 

[smoneil]

How many teams don't have a top 5 draft pick?

Aside from Pavel Brendl in 1999 (forgot about him, and the Rangers traded for that pick), the Rangers haven't drafted in the top 5 since 1966 IIRC (Brad Park, back in the O6 era).

 

[VoluntaryDom]

the lightning and sharks were very good

it's especially funny to see people say the sharks weren't good when most of the experts and 99% of this forum predicted they would beat the pens for the cup

I predicted Pens in 6

 

[VoluntaryDom]

How many teams don't have a top 5 draft pick?

tbay has 2 top-2 picks

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

Aside from Pavel Brendl in 1999 (forgot about him, and the Rangers traded for that pick), the Rangers haven't drafted in the top 5 since 1966 IIRC (Brad Park, back in the O6 era).

Sure, but they've always had a top 5 pick in the lineup, Nash for instance.

 

[CrypTic]

How many teams don't have a top 5 draft pick?

Anaheim (unless you count the players they got from Ryan) and SJ (unless you count Thornton). That's part of the problem, though. Presumably, if you trade a top 5 draft pick, you got back equivalent assets so shouldn't that still count? What if you trade for a top 5 draft pick without including one of your own in exchange?

 

[boredmale]

Anaheim (unless you count the players they got from Ryan) and SJ (unless you count Thornton). That's part of the problem, though. Presumably, if you trade a top 5 draft pick, you got back equivalent assets so shouldn't they count? What if you trade for a top 5 draft pick without including one of your own in exchange?

I can't speak for everybody but I think the general feeling the question asks would be can you win the cup without having 2 or 3 of your core players being top 5 picks. In this case you are looking at guys like Crosby, Malkin, Toews or Kane and ignore somebody say Like Seguin who was a passenger on the Bruins, although a 2nd overall pick when they won the cup. When it comes to trades I would think a team trading a top 5 pick for players holds more weight then a team trading for a player previously picked in the top 5(ie Using the Thornton trade, Boston would get the benefit of having a top 5 choice and not San Jose)

 

[Community]

Certainly! I'm trying to determine if a top 5 pick is almost necessary for winning/challenging for a cup.

It's not necessary, but it's obviously gonna help. There aren't a lot of examples however as there is 50 top 5 picks in the last 10 years and i would guess around 20 of the 30 teams had at least 1 top 5 pick in that time frame.

I would expand your question though to also include teams that have top 5 picks on their roster that aren't major/core pieces. These teams obviously don't need the top 5 pick they have (lots of teams have guys like Yakupov and G Reinhart that are top 5 picks, but not good players and therefore not needed to compete for the cup).

 

[boredmale]

It's not necessary, but it's obviously gonna help. There aren't a lot of examples however as there is 50 top 5 picks in the last 10 years and i would guess around 20 of the 30 teams had at least 1 top 5 pick in that time frame.

Without looking I am guessing it might be closer to 15. I will look it up and give an answer in 5 minutes

ETA Wow I was wrong.

So here is a list of teams without top 5 picks since the 2006 draft(9). NYR, OTT, SJ, ANA, VAN, ANA, MIN, DET, DAL

Of Note; ANA and MINN picked top 5 in 2005, DAL hasn't picked top 5 until 2017, WASH, CHI AND PITTS last picked TOP 5 in 2006(PITT) and 2007(WASH and CHI) so it depends what you would consider 10 years, BOS did pick top 5 in 2006, but the Top 5 pick they had in 2010 was not theirs(although ironically the guy they picked in 2006 allowed them to pick #2 in 2010)

 

[Peggy]

I thought that's what the jets were trying to do til they got lucky with Laine