Can a team realistically challenge for the cup without drafting in the top 5?

aufheben

#Norris4Fox
Jan 31, 2013
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Of course a team can realistically win without a top 5 pick. There are other ways to acquire high end players.

The thing is there are very few teams that don't have a core roster player from a top draft pick.

Anaheim, Boston, Detroit, Minnesota, New York Rangers, Ottawa I think are all of them (San Jose now that they've lost Marleau but I'm not counting them because I'm reviewing last season)

3 of those teams had over 100 points last season. Of the remaining 24 teams, 6 had over 100 points so in fact it seems like teams that don't rely on high draft picks are actually likely to perform better.
And the closest the Rangers have been to a top-5 pick they used 10OA on Dylan McIlrath, which amounted to literally nothing. It was always ~15-25. Boston signed Chara, Thomas. I guess it depends on your definition of "realistic"; half the league makes the playoffs.
 

hairylikebear

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Apr 30, 2009
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And the closest the Rangers have been to a top-5 pick they used 10OA on Dylan McIlrath, which amounted to literally nothing. It was always ~15-25. Boston signed Chara, Thomas. I guess it depends on your definition of "realistic"; half the league makes the playoffs.

The last time the Rangers had a top 5 pick pan out was Brad Park whom they drafted in 1966...
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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Of course a team can realistically win without a top 5 pick. There are other ways to acquire high end players.

The thing is there are very few teams that don't have a core roster player from a top draft pick.

Anaheim, Boston, Detroit, Minnesota, New York Rangers, Ottawa I think are all of them (San Jose now that they've lost Marleau but I'm not counting them because I'm reviewing last season)

3 of those teams had over 100 points last season. Of the remaining 24 teams, 6 had over 100 points so in fact it seems like teams that don't rely on high draft picks are actually likely to perform better.

Right, because a 100 point regular season is a measure of success. Congratulations on the successful season your team had 2 years ago. The Panthers, Islanders, Kings, and your Dallas Stars all had over 100 points. Half of them were eliminated in the first round and half of them were eliminated in the second round. They all missed the playoffs the next year. Of the 10 teams that had 100 points in 2015-2016, 40% missed the playoffs the following year.

Seriously, what the ****? Minnesota had a PDO fluke season. They lost in 5 games in the first round to a bubble team that lost their captain and traded their #2D. At no point did they even come close to challenging for the Cup. Columbus also lost in 5 games in the first round. Montreal lost in 6. Chicago lost in 4.

1/3 of the 100 point teams this year lost in the first round in 5 or less games. Just like last year, of the four teams in the conference finals, only 2 had 100 points. 100 points literally doesn't mean **** when it comes to contending for the Cup. It's just a random benchmark you decided to use.

The goal of the NHL is to win a Stanley Cup. Teams that rely on high draft picks are the only ones that perform well, since they are the only ones that win Stanley Cups.
 

hairylikebear

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Apr 30, 2009
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Houston
Right, because a 100 point regular season is a measure of success. Congratulations on the successful season your team had 2 years ago. The Panthers, Islanders, Kings, and your Dallas Stars all had over 100 points. Half of them were eliminated in the first round and half of them were eliminated in the second round. They all missed the playoffs the next year. Of the 10 teams that had 100 points in 2015-2016, 40% missed the playoffs the following year.

Seriously, what the ****? Minnesota had a PDO fluke season. They lost in 5 games in the first round to a bubble team that lost their captain and traded their #2D. At no point did they even come close to challenging for the Cup. Columbus also lost in 5 games in the first round. Montreal lost in 6. Chicago lost in 4.

1/3 of the 100 point teams this year lost in the first round in 5 or less games. Just like last year, of the four teams in the conference finals, only 2 had 100 points. 100 points literally doesn't mean **** when it comes to contending for the Cup. It's just a random benchmark you decided to use.

The goal of the NHL is to win a Stanley Cup. Teams that rely on high draft picks are the only ones that perform well, since they are the only ones that win Stanley Cups.

The year before last you could add Dallas to that list for 7 total, so there would be 3 teams again that scored 100 points without a top 5 pick on the roster, and 10 total 100 points teams.

The last time a team that fit this criteria won the cup was Detroit in 2008, and the last time one made the finals was the Rangers in 2014.

Just looking at the snapshot of last year, only 20% of teams fit that criteria, so there's a 50% chance that one wins a cup in a given 5 year snapshot, 75% chance in a 10 year snapshot, etc.

Also Anaheim and Ottawa both made the conference finals. Out of 4 teams half of them came from this small minority.
 

lawrence

Registered User
May 19, 2012
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The year before last you could add Dallas to that list for 7 total, so there would be 3 teams again that scored 100 points without a top 5 pick on the roster, and 10 total 100 points teams.

The last time a team that fit this criteria won the cup was Detroit in 2008, and the last time one made the finals was the Rangers in 2014.

Just looking at the snapshot of last year, only 20% of teams fit that criteria, so there's a 50% chance that one wins a cup in a given 5 year snapshot, 75% chance in a 10 year snapshot, etc.

Also Anaheim and Ottawa both made the conference finals. Out of 4 teams half of them came from this small minority.


I mentioned that the 2008 red wings were an exception to the rule even at that time their opposition had Crosby, malkin , steal fleury.

The New York rangers had rick Nash who was drafted number 1 overall. I pointed out that teams that make it to the finals have a top 5 pick in the line up. Actually is more top 3, Nashvilee actually pulled it off by not having one with ry jo as their highest.

Again even if you want to go back 15 years, all the teams that made it to,the finals have top 5 picks on the roster.

2016 cup finals
Crosby malkin
Thornton Marleau.


2003 devils had Scott neidermayer (3)
Ducks had kariya (4)

2004 lecavelier

2006
Oilers had pronger
Hurricanes had Eric staal and Andrew Ladd.

2007
Sens had spezza and heatly
Ducks had neidermayer and pronger

2010
Hawks had Kane, toews.
Flyers had pronger , van Riemsdyk.

Have the sens scored the ot goal in game 7, their so called top 5 pick would have been Turris and bobby Ryan.

So to answer ops question, can you compete for a cup without drafting in the top 5.

The data from the past 10 years says it's much harder to see your team, make it to,the finals without a top 5 player in the line up. Rangers devils and Oilers made it to the finals without drafting one, but they (traded) and got their hands on one, (kovalchuk, Nash, pronger) heck the ducks signed neidermayer and traded for pronger.

So,if your team is pretty good won't be In the lottery anytime soon, might be your best bet to sign a former top 5 pick or trade for one.
 
Last edited:

lifeisruff

Registered User
Oct 29, 2009
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Boston kind of a works here. Yeah they had Seguin but he was the forth or fifth most important player on that team.
 

Neuf

Leaving HFBoards for now
Dec 17, 2016
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Because there are so many teams, the elite talent is diluted. You need higher picks now than you would in a smaller league to balance out the higher amount of average or lesser players.

Pull a Pittsburg or Edmonton and pick top 2 for a few years and you have a team.
 

Mattilaus

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Sep 12, 2014
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I think there needs to be a distinction between drafting in the top 5 and obtaining a top 5 drafted player later.

Unless I am mistaken, the heart of the OP is that teams need to suck enough to get a top 5 pick to have a chance at winning a cup. Teams which traded for a player who was taken top 5 did not need to do so. The title of the thread is "without drafting in the top 5", not "without having a top 5 drafted player on your team".

As such, I don't think Turris or Ryan should count against Ottawa as they did not need to suck/tank to obtain those players.
 

aufheben

#Norris4Fox
Jan 31, 2013
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And "bad" teams make it like the 2015 Lightning, 2012 Devils and 2016 Sharks.
2015 Bolts? What?

IMO it's irrelevant. If a team is in the SCF, they have a realistic chance to win the Cup. I don't think it should be judged in retrospect either. The outcome is separate from their chances going in.
 

blankall

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Jul 4, 2007
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Boston kind of a works here. Yeah they had Seguin but he was the forth or fifth most important player on that team.

The year that Boston one the cup, 2010/11, Seguin was far from the 4th or 5th most important player on the team.
 

The Grim Reaper

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Apr 18, 2017
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I appreciate the kind words. Unfortunately, my last thread wasn't all that well received because folks took the NBA comparison section of my post to heart and thought I was saying the NBA had more parity as a whole, and wouldn't let that, or the "Boston is a fluke" part go.

Ultimately, busts will always occur. The thing about the back to back top-5 picks rule is that teams with back to back top-5 picks will always be able to recover from busts because they will eventually draft a no brainer superstar. Look at LA. A year before they drafted Doughty, they drafted Thomas Hickey 4th overall. Now, most folks will say that Hickey is not relevant to the back to back top-5 picks rule; he was waived and never played a game for them. However, this is actually precisely why he is relevant to the discussion! What Hickey was was an opportunity for them to select a franchise player. They failed. They could have picked Jakub Voracek (was chosen 6th), Logan Couture (9th), Ryan McDonagh (12th), or Kevin Shattenkirk (14th), all of whom were bonafide stars by the time they won their first Cup. However, none of those guys are true franchise players; the only franchise players available at that point were Subban and Benn, but neither of those guys were even ranked in the 1st round. Because they drafted back to back, they got another opportunity in 2008, with which they didn't miss; they picked Doughty. Then a year later, with their 3rd straight top-5 pick, they picked Brayden Schenn; the main piece in the Mike Richards trade.

Same applies to Chicago. While they only had two back to back top-5 picks (both of which were slam dunk franchise players), they had other top-13 (playoff miss) picks, including another top-3 pick that was a bust. They picked Cam Barker 3rd overall in 2004, Jack Skille 7th overall in 2005, and Kyle Beach 11th overall in 2008. All 3 were total busts, the only one with any contribution to a Stanley Cup was Cam Barker who they traded for Nick Leddy who was important but not key to their 2013 Cup win.

The point is, some busts will happen. By drafting top-5 enough times, you are eventually guaranteeing a bonafide can't miss franchise player, as LA got with Doughty in 2008, and Chicago did with Toews and Kane. Pittsburgh didn't make awful picks in Whitney, MAF and Staal, but definitely left better players on the board in Semin/Lupul, the entire 2003 draft class, and Toews/Backstrom, respectively. However, they got 2 slam dunk can't miss franchise centers in Malkin and Crosby. Edmonton fits the mold as well; they probably messed up with Hall, RNH, Yakupov (and Nurse, who wasn't top-5), but outside of Seguin in 2010, they didn't really miss out on any true bonafide franchise players. However, after enough top-5 picks, they eventually got a can't miss franchise player handed to them in McDavid.

Another thing I would like to bring up, in regards to the group of fans who constantly mention the amount of teams that have made the SCF, and how close some teams were. How do you feel about blatant tanking? How do you feel about a GM building a team that is designed to lose as many games as possible? How do you feel about the 2014-2015 Buffalo Sabres?

In my opinion, that season was an absolute disgrace to the game of hockey. In a year where the highest touted prospect of the past decade is available in the next draft, the Buffalo Sabres made a blatant effort to lose every single game and earn the highest odds of drafting said player. Of course, the Edmonton Oilers, who had already had taken half of the first overall picks made that decade, won the lottery (a ridiculous system, btw) and got that generational talent. The Sabres got Jack Eichel, a fine consolation prize and an elite franchise center in his own right.

Guess what? The Buffalo Sabres had already drafted in the top-5 the year before. They selected Sam Reinhart. If teams were not allowed back to back top-5 draft picks, the Sabres would not have engaged in that horrid abomination of a season that blatantly disrespected every single team they played against. That season is not only unfair to the fans who paid to watch that Buffalo team, it was unfair to the teams in every division besides the Atlantic, as they did not get as many chances to rack up points against that joke of a team.

Yet, because of this abomination of a season, their future is actually looking bright! They have the #1 most important piece for a championship team: an elite franchise center. The organization was actually rewarded, not punished, for icing that utter joke of a team.

I completely agree. So we agree that the NHL should setup a draft system that helps bad teams improve without rewarding deliberate tanking teams by, like you've proposed, stopping the back-to-back top-5 draft. However, do you think this hurts small market teams too much? For example, Pittsburgh was ready to move to KC before drafting Malkin/Crosby. I think we can all agree that Pittsburgh not only lucked into drafting two generational talents, but they also lucked into drafting Crosby (per the lottery system). Had Malkin been a bust, the team could have easily went under, whereas say, Toronto, has no chance in hell of ever going under. I'd like to hear your opinion on small vs. large market teams within this proposed system.
 

BlueBaron

Registered User
May 29, 2006
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In answer to the OP yes you can, but it is hard. You need a #1 C with a mid to late teen pick. A well managed team with good drafting could do it but drafting #1 and getting an instant star sure helps.
 

CrypTic

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Oct 2, 2013
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http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2352141

A team does not just need a top 5 pick; they need multiple top-5 picks, back to back.

Thanks for that link. It was a good read.

I didn't have the numbers but had a gut feeling about teams not being able to pick in the top 5 too often. I didn't realize that it was only back to back. E.g., my gut feeling was to not let them pick in the top five more than twice every five years and also not let them pick in the top three more than once every five years. But it was just a gut feeling without looking at the numbers so obviously somewhat arbitrary.
 

Classicnamesup

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Sep 13, 2013
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I think there needs to be a distinction between drafting in the top 5 and obtaining a top 5 drafted player later.

Unless I am mistaken, the heart of the OP is that teams need to suck enough to get a top 5 pick to have a chance at winning a cup. Teams which traded for a player who was taken top 5 did not need to do so. The title of the thread is "without drafting in the top 5", not "without having a top 5 drafted player on your team".

As such, I don't think Turris or Ryan should count against Ottawa as they did not need to suck/tank to obtain those players.

Agreed. Trading for a top 5 pick means you didn't bottom out, you gave up valuable assets that you gained without picking top 5 to get them. So Ottawa is counted and Anaheim is excluded.

Besides Detroit which benefited from the start of the salary cap, Boston is the closest imo.
 

Frankie Blueberries

Allergic to draft picks
Jan 27, 2016
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The Bruins had Seguin on the team, but he was not a big piece.

Marchand, Krecji, Lucic, Bergeron, Chara, etc were all later draft choices that just turned out great.

I also think the need a top end draft pick stats are being heavily skewed by Crosby. Not only is his team winning more, but he's knocking other teams out.

Seguin played a fairly important role in the Tampa Bay series. It's unclear if they'd make the SCF without him.
 

LeafFever

Registered User
Feb 12, 2016
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You can challenge, but win the cup. Not sure. We're not seeing that happen in quite a while.
 

Frankie Blueberries

Allergic to draft picks
Jan 27, 2016
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Yeah he had 1 good period and was scratched over 50% of the playoff games.

Thomas got them that cup
.


Not what I was arguing, nor am I debating that.
Seguin had a game where he scored 2 goals and 2 assists, pretty much single handedly won that game for the Bruins. Considering that series went 7 games, the Bruins might not have made the SCF without Seguin during that run.
 

b in vancouver

Registered User
Jul 28, 2005
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this is a strange thread. From Thornton and Marleau (are there older top 5 picks still active) to today - there's a lot active in the league. Thrown in that most every team has bad years and even the good teams have come close to picking top 5. And they get traded... How many teams don't have top 5 picks on their roster?

Bottom 10 finishes during the cap era (high picks or the equivalent if traded cough:T.O.) - the teams that have found success are few and far between.
Toronto, Colorado, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Arizona, Florida, Buffalo, Edmonton, Carolina, Tampa Bay, The Isle, Columbus (that has to be approaching two-thirds of top 10 picks) - haven't exactly found success. Tampa being the best of the bunch. That's the poster child.

Outside of Crosby and Malkin, Kane and Toews, - what have all these other top end picks done? Doughty and Stamkos were big parts of their teams but not the engines. I know there's a few others that have had success in the playoffs but...

This whole needing top 5-10 picks to build your team seems like a fool's errand at times.
 

kaiser matias

Registered User
Mar 22, 2004
4,738
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I mentioned that the 2008 red wings were an exception to the rule even at that time their opposition had Crosby, malkin , steal fleury.

The New York rangers had rick Nash who was drafted number 1 overall. I pointed out that teams that make it to the finals have a top 5 pick in the line up. Actually is more top 3, Nashvilee actually pulled it off by not having one with ry jo as their highest.

Again even if you want to go back 15 years, all the teams that made it to,the finals have top 5 picks on the roster.

2016 cup finals
Crosby malkin
Thornton Marleau.


2003 devils had Scott neidermayer (3)
Ducks had kariya (4)

2004 lecavelier

2006
Oilers had pronger
Hurricanes had Eric staal and Andrew Ladd.

2007
Sens had spezza and heatly
Ducks had neidermayer and pronger

2010
Hawks had Kane, toews.
Flyers had pronger , van Riemsdyk.

Have the sens scored the ot goal in game 7, their so called top 5 pick would have been Turris and bobby Ryan.

So to answer ops question, can you compete for a cup without drafting in the top 5.

The data from the past 10 years says it's much harder to see your team, make it to,the finals without a top 5 player in the line up. Rangers devils and Oilers made it to the finals without drafting one, but they (traded) and got their hands on one, (kovalchuk, Nash, pronger) heck the ducks signed neidermayer and traded for pronger.

So,if your team is pretty good won't be In the lottery anytime soon, might be your best bet to sign a former top 5 pick or trade for one.

Even Detroit in 2008 and 2009 had a top-5 pick, though an unexpected one and not someone they drafted: Brad Stuart, who went 3rd overall in 1998 to the Sharks.

Not that the inclusion of Stuart was key to the Wings making the Finals both years, but it does fit the criteria here, and should not be forgotten.
 

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