Player Discussion Cam Talbot (G)

[bert]

I'm all for taking chances on older players, heck Alife, Andy, etc... played well for us after age 35. I just don't want us trading touted prospects that we haven't given a chance, its just a symptom of random impatience + poor player evaluatino that this organization needs to stop with.

BINGO!

Need a new GM with an actual vision. Pierre rushed all of this. Now the cupboards are bare, no picks for 2 years its sad. Have to really hope that there is internal growth and a massive new coach bump as there is no room for anything to come from the salary cap perspective.

 

[Ice-Tray]

The West is wide open, though - you can make a good case for almost any team outside of Winnipeg/Calgary. I could see the Wild making a run to the Finals, and once they get there they'll be facing an East team that had to go through a death march to make it that far. It is not all that far fetched that Gus could be a Conn Smythe contender if he is the hot hand they ride to the Finals...

That’s very far fetched.

 

[Ice-Tray]

BINGO!

Need a new GM with an actual vision. Pierre rushed all of this. Now the cupboards are bare, no picks for 2 years its sad. Have to really hope that there is internal growth and a massive new coach bump as there is no room for anything to come from the salary cap perspective.

Rushed? Lol No vision? Lol

Guys in here couldn’t be patient through the rebuild, now everything is rushed.

We played 8 rookies in the lineup last night, and still have a handful of good prospects coming up, yet the cupboards are bare.

We replace two first round picks with DBC and Chychrun, we’ll be just fine.

I love how we just had a pretty solid season and the doom and gloom is as bad as ever for some people.

This place is becoming more and more out of touch.

 

[Micklebot]

Oh I hear you, but it was a calculated trade, not random or knee-jerk.

We weren’t going to roll all season with 3 goalies, Forsberg was better than Gus, and we wanted a seasoned vet to platoon with Forsberg to give us stability in net this season. Talbot was an All-Star, and Gus had some stumbles, and some issues.

I have no idea why you, Joe blow fan, think it’s premature to speculate that his conditioning was a problem, when his GM flat out told it was a problem yesterday. You sure you know better? You also don’t seem to understand how conditioning affects goalies. Being in top condition affects a goalies mental game as much as the physical. This was also explained by the pros.

Anyways, it doesn’t mean the org thought he was crap, or that he couldn’t put it together, it meant that they gave up to get a ‘better’ tender for the short term, while clearly feeling that Soggy was their future guy. As I said, Gus has been traded by both Pitt and Ott, so perhaps he has needed some added motivation?

Didnt work out this season due to injuries, and we’ll see how Gus fares long term.

So a couple points,

1. We don't know if his conditioning was a persistent problem or just this year, Guerin identified it as an issue this year, but was he out of shape previously, idk.

2. You mention how this isn't the first time a team has opted to go with another goalie rather than Gus, while trading for Talbot was a calculated move, but by the same token, more teams have abandoned ship on Talbot than have on Gus. So how calculated really was it.

3. This one is just a bit of a pet peeve of mine, but referring to Talbot as an all star while true, to me is a bit misleading, it implies he was one of the top goalies last year, but he didn't receive a single Vezina vote or get any votes for first team/ second team all star voting. The all star game is a player from every team, so you sometimes get a player that wouldn't otherwise make it if not for their team needing representation but all star voting gives you top players for their position.

 

[jbeck5]

BTW, if you want to know why it is that Talbot thought he was worth $5 million, just consider this - Chris Driedger is under contract for one more year next season to Seattle at a $3.5 million cap hit, $4.5 million in hard cash. He missed most of this year with a torn ACL suffered at the Worlds last year, and is now just starting to play in the AHL. If you're Talbot, and you see a guy like Driedger getting 4.5....

Lol I mean...does that mean any 7th D should ask for 5 million with term because guys like zaitsev exist making 4.5???

Seems like a terrible argument and not logical. Those guys are literally trying to be dumped by every team because they have negative value.

That argument does nothing to justify his ask. I'm not left reading your argument and going "you're right. That IS a reasonable ask from Talbot because driedger." Lol like at all.

 

[boxbox]

It's wild how bad he can be while somehow having a pretty much a league average sv% but at the same time never stealimg any games to make up for the terrible games.

He's the worst goalie in the league 30% of the time, and while the other 70% he's above average he's never great...

He has respectable numbers because contrary to what most believe this team can actually play defense. The PK was good this year but never because of him. I never seen a goalie have as many absolutely terrible games as as he has had this season.

He's the worst goalie in the league 30% of the time, and while the other 70% he's above average he's never great...

def not something that would have an effect on players and their play

 

[Ice-Tray]

So a couple points,

1. We don't know if his conditioning was a persistent problem or just this year, Guerin identified it as an issue this year, but was he out of shape previously, idk.

2. You mention how this isn't the first time a team has opted to go with another goalie rather than Gus, while trading for Talbot was a calculated move, but by the same token, more teams have abandoned ship on Talbot than have on Gus.

3. This one is just a bit of a pet peeve of mine, but referring to Talbot as an all star while true, to me is a bit misleading, it implies he was one of the top goalies last year, but he didn't receive a single Vezina vote or get any votes for first team/ second team all star voting. The all star game is a player from every team, so you sometimes get a player that wouldn't otherwise make it if not for their team needing representation but all star voting gives you top players for their position.

My point was that teams two teams have moved on from a young Gus, and there have been questioned raised about his conditioning. He himself spoke about the change.

You‘re misunderstanding, I’m not arguing facts here, I’m introducing tidbits and speculating that just maybe this wasn’t some knee jerk random move from the org, as the poster I was speaking to characterized it.

I have nothing against Gus and am glad he's putting things together.

For some Folks every move is a blunder, when the reality is that perhaps there is more to the story.

The pet peeve is your own though, All star to me means that he was selected to represent his team at the all star game, which generally means he’s the teams best player, and was one of the better goalies of the first half. Nowhere does anyone mention the vezIna. It means that he’s played really well, which for one or two seasons is exactly what this team wanted and needed.

Brady is referred to as an All Star all the time, since he’s been to two all star games now, but he hasn’t been a finalist for any major awards.

 

[Larionov]

Lol I mean...does that mean any 7th D should ask for 5 million with term because guys like zaitsev exist making 4.5???

Seems like a terrible argument and not logical. Those guys are literally trying to be dumped by every team because they have negative value.

That argument does nothing to justify his ask. I'm not left reading your argument and going "you're right. That IS a reasonable ask from Talbot because driedger." Lol like at all.

I wasn't saying that Talbot was right. ;-) I'm just saying that he and his agent looked around the marketplace earlier this year, saw a very thin free agent goalie class brewing, saw what they saw as some comparable players, and aimed high. Of course, his injury and swan dive late in the year has cratered his value, but remember that the $5 million ask was back in January. We should be forever grateful that he overvalued himself, because if he was willing to sign a two year deal at three million per year in January, I bet Dorion would have pulled the trigger...

 

[Micklebot]

He has respectable numbers because contrary to what most believe this team can actually play defense. The PK was good this year but never because of him. I never seen a goalie have as many absolutely terrible games as as he has had this season.

This is an odd conclusion, the PK has the 10th highest xGA/60 in the league suggesting that Ottawa is not really keeping quality chances down.

Meanwhile, Talbot has the 12 best PK sv% in the league among the 55 goalies with 100+ PK mins, Forsberg is 33rd. So while you don't feel the PK is successful due to him, the seats seem to tell a different story.

One difference is that our biggest issue defensively at 5v5 is our zone exits, we have one of the worst dz turnover rates in the league, but on the PK you aren't trying to make a pass to start a break out, you just ice it at the first opportunity so that weakness is gone.

 

[Micklebot]

The pet peeve is your own though, All star to me means that he was selected to represent his team at the all star game, which generally means he’s the teams best player, and was one of the better goalies of the first half. Nowhere does anyone mention the vezIna. It means that he’s played really well, which for one or two seasons is exactly what this team wanted and needed.

That's just it though, he wasn't one of the better goalies in the first half, and he wasn't the wilds best player either (Kaprizov easily takes that mantle).

At best, Talbot was having a pretty league average year. 17th in sv % among starters at the all star break, finished the year at 18th. The issue is they need to get representation and sometimes that results in some choices just to get the right numbers for each position.

I brought up vezina and all star team voting because it removes the need to get representation from each team, and if you get even a single vote, it's recorded. 13 different goalies got all star team votes, 9 got vezina votes, none were Talbot.

He's an all star is pretty meaningless in the scheme of things, it really doesn't give you much of an idea of how he performed relative to his peers, you might think he had a better season than Forsberg based on him being an all star, but it's Forsberg that had the better sv% despite playing on the defensively challenged team.

It's the kind of spin politicians would use, technically true but does it really convey an accurate representation of the situation, that's highly debatable.

 

[Hale The Villain]

BTW, if you want to know why it is that Talbot thought he was worth $5 million, just consider this - Chris Driedger is under contract for one more year next season to Seattle at a $3.5 million cap hit, $4.5 million in hard cash. He missed most of this year with a torn ACL suffered at the Worlds last year, and is now just starting to play in the AHL. If you're Talbot, and you see a guy like Driedger getting 4.5....

Driedger signed that contract after putting up a .927 SV% in 21/22 and .938 SV% in 20/21 as Florida's backup.

Seattle was hoping he was a late-bloomer that could emerge as a legit starter at age 26.

Not at all comparable situations.

 

[Ice-Tray]

That's just it though, he wasn't one of the better goalies in the first half, and he wasn't the wilds best player either (Kaprizov easily takes that mantle).

At best, Talbot was having a pretty league average year. 17th in sv % among starters at the all star break, finished the year at 18th. The issue is they need to get representation and sometimes that results in some choices just to get the right numbers for each position.

I brought up vezina and all star team voting because it removes the need to get representation from each team, and if you get even a single vote, it's recorded. 13 different goalies got all star team votes, 9 got vezina votes, none were Talbot.

He's an all star is pretty meaningless in the scheme of things, it really doesn't give you much of an idea of how he performed relative to his peers, you might think he had a better season than Forsberg based on him being an all star, but it's Forsberg that had the better sv% despite playing on the defensively challenged team.

It's the kind of spin politicians would use, technically true but does it really convey an accurate representation of the situation, that's highly debatable.

All of this is just overanalysis to try and prove whatever minutia you’re caught up in this time.

Being an all star is a nice meteic to use no matter how you try and discredit it. Also, the team obviously observed the player instead of simply looking at the all star roster and drawings a circle around the goalie. While the nod to the weekend may not compare performances to other tenders, the team obviously looked around, and it’s indicative of his solid play no matter how you spin the value of invites.

They obviously wanted to bring in a solid vet goalie to play tandem with Forsberg for the season to bring stability in the net. Talbot’s season painted a nice picture of that ability.

This has nothing to do with politics, and at no time has anyone used the All star game invite as the sole reason for anything. The invite is actually a reaction to his play, nothing political or sneaky about it.

 

[Micklebot]

All of this is just overanalysis to try and prove whatever minutia you’re caught up in this time.

Being an all star is a nice meteic to use no matter how you try and discredit it. Also, the team obviously observed the player instead of simply looking at the all star roster and drawings a circle around the goalie. While the nod to the weekend may not compare performances to other tenders, the team obviously looked around, and it’s indicative of his solid play no matter how you spin the value of invites.

They obviously wanted to bring in a solid vet goalie to play tandem with Forsberg for the season to bring stability in the net. Talbot’s season painted a nice picture of that ability.

This has nothing to do with politics, and at no time has anyone used the All star game invite as the sole reason for anything. The invite is actually a reaction to his play, nothing political or sneaky about it.

So John Scott is an all star, we could have really used an all star like him right, or for a sens flavour peter Sidorkiewicz and his .856 sv% in 93? Or Craig Billington the same year with his slightly better .876, they were even traded for each other afterwards? How about Girgenson in 2015 if you want more recent?

The whole point is it's a misleading 'metric' to use, and it's one that keeps getting brought up to defend a trade that went wrong. Maybe playing in the all star game usually means you're good, but it's not actually a measure of a player and there are tons of instances of mediocre players in the game.

So no, not over analysis, just calling a spade a spade. It's spin to try and paint Talbot as more than what he is.

 

[Liver King]

Classic Dorion f*** up

Oh well, Mads and Leevi babyy

 

[swiftwin]

BINGO!

Need a new GM with an actual vision. Pierre rushed all of this. Now the cupboards are bare, no picks for 2 years its sad. Have to really hope that there is internal growth and a massive new coach bump as there is no room for anything to come from the salary cap perspective.

Nobody is "hoping" for internal growth. Internal growth is the plan. Internal growth is the vision. Our highest potential forward and our highest potential defenseman were 20 years old to start the season. One of them is locked in until 2031.

This is it. We are hitched to this core. They are almost all signed to extremely long term contracts. The only two who are not signed long term are DeBrincat and Sanderson, but cap space is already lined up and allocated for them to sign long term. If this core doesn't grow and become competitive, no draft picks or cupboards full of prospects are going to save us.

That's the mistake lots of failed rebuild did was not dedicating enough resources and assets to pull the team out of that loser mentality. Kicking the can down the road for future assets does not help that. It just slows the development of the players we already have and shortens our future cup window.

 

[Micklebot]

Nobody is "hoping" for internal growth. Internal growth is the plan. Internal growth is the vision

I mean, we traded off our goaltending prospect for a guy that will walk as a UFA (we hope), a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for DeBrincat, and a 1st and two seconds for Chychrun, that's not really internal growth, that's shippi g off a ton of assets to improve now.

Internal growth is certainly part of the plan, but we've left ourselves with very little wiggle room now.

That said, I'm ok with most of the moves, I wasn't a fan of the Talbot move, but even there I understand the logic even if it's not what I'd have done.

I think this roster has a bright future, not really worried about anything but goaltending and coaching at this point.

 

[Ice-Tray]

So John Scott is an all star, we could have really used an all star like him right, or for a sens flavour peter Sidorkiewicz and his .856 sv% in 93? Or Craig Billington the same year with his slightly better .876, they were even traded for each other afterwards? How about Girgenson in 2015 if you want more recent?

The whole point is it's a misleading 'metric' to use, and it's one that keeps getting brought up to defend a trade that went wrong. Maybe playing in the all star game usually means you're good, but it's not actually a measure of a player and there are tons of instances of mediocre players in the game.

So no, not over analysis, just calling a spade a spade. It's spin to try and paint Talbot as more than what he is.

Uhm, Talbot had solid season and was the choice from his team to go to the all star game, not fan voted in on a lark.

It doesn’t mean he was a vezina candidate, but it does means that he was one of the best player from his team at the time, like Brady. I’m not even sure why we’re having this discussion.

All it is is another supporting argument that he was a solid vet who could help stabilize our goaltending in a crucial session where we needed/wanted to take a big step forward. Rather than being a knee jerk and under evaluated trade, which is the point of discussion I was having with a different poster.

Its not a misleading metric at all the way I’m using it, it’s a misleading metric when you strawman it up as some sort of vezina stand in, and stand alone, and then proceed to tear it down all by your lonesome.

Once again you’ve come in and co-op-ed a discussion, changed the point to some minutea that you’re arguing to yourself about. Not only did I not make the point you’re arguing, I also have zero interest in carrying on with you about it.

 

[coladin]

If he is willing to come back for 1 more year between $1.5-$2.1M then would do it.

Full year of having 6 legit NHL defensemen plus having a new coach with an actual D system, will make him look better.

The “system” has nothing to do with Talbot whiffing on shots

 

[swiftwin]

I mean, we traded off our goaltending prospect for a guy that will walk as a UFA (we hope), a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for DeBrincat, and a 1st and two seconds for Chychrun, that's not really internal growth, that's shippi g off a ton of assets to improve now.

Internal growth is certainly part of the plan, but we've left ourselves with very little wiggle room now.

That said, I'm ok with most of the moves, I wasn't a fan of the Talbot move, but even there I understand the logic even if it's not what I'd have done.

I think this roster has a bright future, not really worried about anything but goaltending and coaching at this point.

We had little wiggle room from the moment we locked in Tkachuk, Norris, Stutzle, Batherson, etc. We hitched ourselves to that wagon. We need those players to grow. That's what I'm talking about when I say internal growth. Drafting players is not internal growth. Bringing in veterans like Giroux and Talbot and high end players like DeBrincat and Chychrun helps the aforementioned core grow faster and makes them more likely to reach their maximum potential. Talbot was a bit of a flop on the veteran front, but Giroux was clearly not.

The plan and vision is clearly built around a core of players aged 20-25, on long term contracts, looking to peak within the next 3-7 years when their contracts have maximum value relative to the rising cap. The faster we can get these players to peak, the bigger our cup window will be. A couple extra 17yr olds does absolutely nothing to help us there.

Besides, nothing about this is rushed. Chychrun and DeBrincat are the same age as our core. We didn't just ship off assets to improve now. We shipped off to improve now and in the future when our core will be at their peak.

 

[Mingus Dew]

If Talbot is willing to pay $1mm to play for the Sens next year I'd consider it.

 

[bert]

If Talbot is willing to pay $1mm to play for the Sens next year I'd consider it.

Not a chance for me. Guys lost it. Cant lose your net as often as he does. They dont even think he can win right now. Or else he would be starting.

 

[Mingus Dew]

Not a chance for me. Guys lost it. Cant lose your net as often as he does. They dont even think he can win right now. Or else he would be starting.

Yeah I mean I’m saying if the dude pays the Sens to pay for him I’d consider it.

In other words no chance I want him back at any cost.

 

[bicboi64]

Its easy to criticize moves once they finalize and don't meet expectations. Every GM makes good and bad moves, that is why certain GMs are regarded to be better at the position than others. I guarantee you that no GM makes moves that include the teams prostpects hoping once the trade is complete they turn into all stars for their new team. You also have to consider that Ottawa was never a desirable location for player so if a player was needed for whatever team related reason it was by trade or by signing the player. Being a budget team the Sens never really threw money at FA in the summer or had no problem offering over market value contracts as a mean to attract FA. Only a fool knowing that would not use it to their advantage when trading with the Sens.

Dorion literally acquired two of the biggest names in trade rumours in the last calendar year. The core issue is who the team is targeting.

Thinking Talbot is good enough to repeat his success in Minnesota despite playing behind an inferior blueline is the issue. Taking a chance on a player who is aging and playing behind a good D just because you fear we can't get anyone better isn't a sustainable recipe for success. In that spot, don't make the move and invest in your player development.

 

[bicboi64]

Its not a misleading metric at all the way I’m using it, it’s a misleading metric when you strawman it up as some sort of vezina stand in, and stand alone, and then proceed to tear it down all by your lonesome.

Its not a misleading metric at all. I think the point about being an all-star being somewhat meaningless is that it simply reflects a single season. Based off that, players like John Scott, Girgensons, Mike Komisarek, etc...

Using all star as a qualifier is a very limited way to evaluate a player as good considering there's better metrics to use to evaluate players and those other metrics (don't want to repeat them as other posters are) are what some of us are using to discuss the acquisition.

 

[Micklebot]

Uhm, Talbot had solid season and was the choice from his team to go to the all star game, not fan voted in on a lark.

He was in the bottom half of the league in s% among starters. Yes, he was one of 8 goalies at the all star game, but if you don't see how calling him an all star is loaded language, that's not on me.

It doesn’t mean he was a vezina candidate, but it does means that he was one of the best player from his team at the time, like Brady. I’m not even sure why we’re having this discussion.

Does it it? Was he actually better than Kaprizov, Fiala, or Zuccarello? How about Brodin or Spurgeon? Idk, what I do know is only 9 skaters and Two goalies could be representated from the central division, so building the roster wasn't just about picking the best players at their position, or even the best players from each team.

All it is is another supporting argument that he was a solid vet who could help stabilize our goaltending in a crucial session where we needed/wanted to take a big step forward. Rather than being a knee jerk and under evaluated trade, which is the point of discussion I was having with a different poster.

No, it's a label that invokes a perception of a player rather than show why he's a solid vet, an argument that he's a solid vet would be detailing examples of his performance relative to his peers. That's the whole point about it being misleading, it's not that you were trying to pull the wool over people's eyes by using it, it's that it it's not actually evidence of the perception it involes

Its not a misleading metric at all the way I’m using it, it’s a misleading metric when you strawman it up as some sort of vezina stand in, and stand alone, and then proceed to tear it down all by your lonesome.

Again, the problem isn't what you intent it to represent, it's what the average person would assume having no other information available to them if you told them he was an all star.

saying someone is an all star suggests they were one of the better goalies that year, but he was bottom half of the league in sv% among starters.

Once again you’ve come in and co-op-ed a discussion, changed the point to some minutea that you’re arguing to yourself about. Not only did I not make the point you’re arguing, I also have zero interest in carrying on with you about it.

You used all star participation as evidence he was having a good season, you said so yourself, my point was he wasn't really having a good season. Average at best, hence why it's misleading, the tag all star inherently suggests more than it actually means thanks to how the all star rosters are built.