C Will Smith - Boston College, NCAA (2023, 4th, SJS)

[GAGLine]

Interesting... So Celebrini can't really burn a year at the end of next college season...

Is Celebrini going to return to college? Power did as a 1st overall pick, but I haven't heard anything about Celebrini doing the same.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Maybe rent is $25-50k... Bay Area is expensive.

You're probably right on the escrow. Point remains that if you believe you're going to earn $20-30MM over your career, a couple hundred thousand difference may very well be worth it to run it back with your bros, go to your family's college with your sister, etc.

I guess I have a hard time relating. I'd take the money right now.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

$1MM salary, taxes in CA leave you with $570K. Probably gets ~50% of the 12.5% california tax back because you're working in other states half the time, but then some of those states also have taxes, so maybe he gets back roughly $30-40K, make it an even $600K.

Escrow payment is what, 17%? I don't know, but that's another $170K that you don't even see, and you may get back, maybe not. $400K in take home pay is a lot of money for a normal person, but it's not so much that you would be insane to turn it down, because his rent in SJ could be $100K and then...

At college, he's living for free and he's a Chipotle athlete and probably makes $100K in NIL (BC is a rich school, rich donors -> NIL payments... Rumor has it that even depth players in college D1 football make nearly $100K/year, I can't believe BC Hockey stars don't make that much).

So that's $300K in takehome pay after rent, vs. $100K in takehome pay with no other living expenses and living the time of your life.

Plus, it's not like his development is going to get hurt. He may play better in year 1 of his ELC, and that may knock on to his first big contract.

Plus, as others have said, he could burn the ELC year anyway at the end of next year.


I agree with the rest of your post, lots of reasons to stay, but Smith is a Communication Studies major and it sounds like the school work is... not significant (podcast appearance talked about basically him, Leonard, and Perreault being stage hands for some performance for credit). And therefore the studies are ... not meaningful.

Ahh that makes sense.

What's a Chipotle athlete? He's just sponsored by them to appear in commercials and stuff ?

 

[PAZ]

I guess I have a hard time relating. I'd take the money right now.

Smith could genuinely think that staying in College is better for his development which will make him more money over his career.

Joining the worst team in the league where you're playing half the game in your own zone and getting blown out every other game s is not an ideal situation for a player like Smith.

 

[WADEugottaBELAKthat]

My personal opinion is that the three studs that play together should stop doing that before they become too used to it.

 

[GAGLine]

Ahh that makes sense.

What's a Chipotle athlete? He's just sponsored by them to appear in commercials and stuff ?

The members of the US WJC team get free Chipotle for a year. I assume that's what the other poster was referring to.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Is Celebrini going to return to college? Power did as a 1st overall pick, but I haven't heard anything about Celebrini doing the same.

There has been some talk that he is considering it depending on the team he goes too.

 

[Wieters]

My personal opinion is that the three studs that play together should stop doing that before they become too used to it.

Or else what, they might mess around and go down as one of the greatest amateur American lines of all time en route to guaranteed NHL contracts? The horror.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Interesting... So Celebrini can't really burn a year at the end of next college season...

Yes, exactly. That’s why Smith (and Leonard and Perrault) not signing right at the end of his season was not surprising because he wouldn’t have been able to burn a year, but Gauthier signed with the Ducks immediately.

Or else what, they might mess around and go down as one of the greatest amateur American lines of all time en route to guaranteed NHL contracts? The horror.

Or they could become lazy and complacent and never develop the aspects to their game they’re used to one of the other guys taking care of. If they all go back, they shouldn’t play on the same line.

 

[coooldude]

My personal opinion is that the three studs that play together should stop doing that before they become too used to it.

I 100% agree.

The members of the US WJC team get free Chipotle for a year. I assume that's what the other poster was referring to.

No, Smith is a sponsored partner with Chipotle. I have no idea the terms of the agreement or if anyone does.

Will Smith on Instagram: "Team Chipotle🤝 #ChipotlePartner"

6,317 likes, 68 comments - _willsmith2 on June 16, 2023: "Team Chipotle🤝 #ChipotlePartner".

www.instagram.com

 

[Wieters]

Or they could become lazy and complacent and never develop the aspects to their game they’re used to one of the other guys taking care of. If they all go back, they shouldn’t play on the same line.

I understand this concern in the abstract, but I'm not sure how practically concerning it is. The adage amongst professional talent evaluators is that returning to college never really hurts, which is verbatim what Grier himself said the other day when discussing Smith's decision. Maybe there's an additional wrinkle here in the sense that this is a line that has been together for awhile and so theoretically there could be stagnation. But there's just as colorable of a case that playing together allows them to create and experiment in ways they wouldn't dare to if playing with others. That kind of ambition and creativity is something the USNTDP encourages for the purpose of development.

This is also ignoring that maybe they want to win national/international titles as much as they want to stress test their NHL development.

 

[Brodeur]

I don't know one sane person that would turn down 1 million dollars per year to play in front of NHL crowds in NHL arenas while burning off a year of your ELC to stay in college. Its crazy.

Jack Johnson could have turned pro after his freshman year. But he (and unfortunately his dad) were enjoying the college experience.

I forget if Brock Boeser would have had the inside track to an NHL job after his freshman year but he went back to North Dakota for another season.

The Michigan 2021 trio (Power-Beniers-Johnson) decided to come back, but they had some extenuating circumstances. Michigan made the 2021 postseason but forfeited their first round game due to positive Covid tests. Powers and Beniers also noted that they wanted at least a year of the college experience as the previous year had been online.

In the context of Smith, if he signs next spring, he can burn the first year of the deal anyways because he's 20. The only difference is that he'd be 10.2(c) RFA at the end and not eligible for an offer sheet.

Really does come down to personal preference, there's no single right answer. Trevor Zegras signed after his freshman year and his ELC slid as a result. Cole Caufield and Matt Boldy went back for their sophomore years and were able to burn their first years since they signed at 20.

Zegras:
2020-21: ELC1 (split season between AHL/NHL)
2021-22: ELC2
2022-23: ELC3
2023-24: 5.75 mil (5.75 mil x 3 years)
2024-25: 5.75 mil

Caufield:
2020-21: ELC1 (went back for sophomore year, signed spring 2021)
2021-22: ELC2
2022-23: ELC3
2023-24: 9.975 mil (7.85 mil AAV x 8 years)
2024-25: 9.975 mil

Boldy:
2020-21: ELC1 (went back for sophomore year, signed spring 2021)
2021-22: ELC2
2022-23: ELC3
2023-24: 8 mil (7 mil AAV x 7 years)
2024-25: 9.7 mil

Zegras got an immediate paycheck but didn't necessarily fast forward his next contract / pay day. And then mix in the horror story that is Alex Turcotte signing after his freshman year. Due to injuries resulting in an ELC slide, he's just getting RFA status this summer while his other NTDP teammates have gotten paid.

I can't remember which podcast/article it was, but I recall Tage Thompson saying that if he could do it over again he would have done another year of college. I think it was in context with him getting advice to his younger brother who was contemplating turning pro after his sophomore year. Tyce Thompson did go back for his junior year.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Securing 1 million dollars early, especially when you play a dangerous sport like hockey or football, is also fun.

What are the chances that’s going away so quickly?

1-3%, at most?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I know this website likes to play life advisor for these players, but someone like Will Smith has probably already missed out on a lot of the fun of his high school and college years that a lot of his friends didn’t miss out on.

There’s an appeal to taking an extra year of what’s a more fun experience than entering the workforce at an age the majority of his friends probably aren’t in the workforce at and dealing with a lot more of the serious realities of that stage of life.

You can say he might miss out on a lot of money, but when you are 19 or 20 years old and you probably came from a family that is financially not in poverty you might not believe that you need to go with whatever option gets you the most money for the interim.

 

[Michoulicious]

What are the chances that’s going away so quickly?

1-3%, at most?

I dunno. I'd say many players had their careers derailed by injuries. When you can secure a bag, you should.

 

[Brodeur]

Securing 1 million dollars early, especially when you play a dangerous sport like hockey or football, is also fun.

Football sure, but I can't recall too many catastrophic injuries happening in college hockey. Jon Merrill went back for his junior year instead of turning pro and got boarded in a preseason game. As a result, he missed the first half of that season but I don't think that changed the trajectory of his career.

Meanwhile Alex Turcotte signed after his freshman year and subsequently got hurt in the AHL. In a different post, I listed how far behind in career earnings he is from his NTDP teammates Caufield/Boldy who went back for their sophomore years. I don't know if I'd consider Turcotte as "securing the bag" compared to his former teammates. I don't think I was ever concerned that Caufield was going to concussed or hit with a red turtle shell when he went back for college.

ACL injury might ruin a college football player's pro career (Marcus Lattimore) or a blown arm for a college baseball pitcher. But those seem like way more common scenarios than a hockey player being more susceptible to concussions in college rather than pros.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I dunno. I'd say many players had their careers derailed by injuries. When you can secure a bag, you should.

What a player should do depends on the situation.

The overarching “secure the bag at all costs” thing I completely disagree with. I think this ruins sports and leads to people making decisions that they aren’t happy with.

I don’t believe in living such a risk-adverse life, especially at that age. Do what makes you happy. If things don’t go your way doing so, you deal with it then.

 

[Brodeur]

I dunno. I'd say many players had their careers derailed by injuries. When you can secure a bag, you should.

Just checking from recent drafts:

2015:
Noah Hanifin signed after his freshman year, Zach Werenski signed after his sophomore year. Werenski seems to be doing fine financially.

2016:
Clayton Keller signed after his freshman year. Charlie McAvoy signed after his sophomore year. McAvoy seems to be doing fine financially.

2017:
Casey Mittedlstadt signed after his freshman year. Cale Makar signed after his sophomore year. Makar seems to be doing fine financially.

2018:
Brady Tkachuk signed after his freshman year. Quinn Hughes signed after his sophomore year. Hughes seems to be doing fine financially.

2019:
Trevor Zegras signed after his freshman year. Matt Boldy and Cole Caufield signed after their sophomore years. I don't think they're asking Zegras to borrow money.

As I said before, there's no one right answer. Just comes down to the player. But I think you're letting your imagination run a bit wild regarding hypothetical injuries.

More recently, Logan Cooley signed while Cutter Gauthier went back for his sophomore year. Both will be RFAs in the summer of 2026. With the benefit of hindsight, I wonder if Cooley has any regrets about not going back for another shot at WJC/NCAA championships.

In the context of Will Smith, maybe he is looking at Gauthier's example as the path to follow (minus the forcing a trade thing). Is it better to get another year of the college experience with a shot at defending WJC and a chance to win an NCAA championship? Or is it better to sign right away and probably have to survive a bad year with a rebuilding Sharks club?

Just to reiterate, I don't think there's a right or wrong answer.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I know this website likes to play life advisor for these players, but someone like Will Smith has probably already missed out on a lot of the fun of his high school and college years that a lot of his friends didn’t miss out on.

There’s an appeal to taking an extra year of what’s a more fun experience than entering the workforce at an age the majority of his friends probably aren’t in the workforce at and dealing with a lot more of the serious realities of that stage of life.

You can say he might miss out on a lot of money, but when you are 19 or 20 years old and you probably came from a family that is financially not in poverty you might not believe that you need to go with whatever option gets you the most money for the interim.

I'm not trying to play advisor. I just know what I'd do. But obviously I don't look at money the same way.

 

[Dead Coyote]

$1MM salary, https://www.forbes.com/advisor/inco...s=0&filing=single&income=1000000&ira=0&k401=0

At college, he's living for free and he's a Chipotle athlete and probably makes $100K in NIL (BC is a rich school, rich donors -> NIL payments... Rumor has it that even depth players in college D1 football make nearly $100K/year, I can't believe BC Hockey stars don't make that much).
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/inco...s=0&filing=single&income=1000000&ira=0&k401=0

College Football in the US is a completely and totally different beast than College hockey, and it's not close. The leagues aren't really monetized the same either.

I think it's definitely possible he stays, don't get me wrong, but I also don't think he's going to be pulling in tons of money or anywhere close to what his NHL contract would be.

 

[coooldude]

College Football in the US is a completely and totally different beast than College hockey, and it's not close. The leagues aren't really monetized the same either.

I think it's definitely possible he stays, don't get me wrong, but I also don't think he's going to be pulling in tons of money or anywhere close to what his NHL contract would be.

Yes, it's a different beast. However, if there's any school in the country that can funnel alumni money to its top, let's say 4 players, on the order of $100K, it's BC. Who knows if true, but I would be shocked if they weren't getting any money and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were getting $100K in NIL.

 

[WADEugottaBELAKthat]

Or else what, they might mess around and go down as one of the greatest amateur American lines of all time en route to guaranteed NHL contracts? The horror.

Or else they risk developing a lack of adaptability which in turn diminishes their long-term potential earnings and their teams’ long-term development goals of having good players.

 

[GAGLine]

Or else they risk developing a lack of adaptability which in turn diminishes their long-term potential earnings and their teams’ long-term development goals of having good players.

That seems like a made-up concern. Developing a lack of adaptability? Can you cite one example of where it has ever happened?

They've played together, more or less, for 2 years now. 1 more year isn't going to make a difference. If you watched, you'd have seen that they weren't always together this year, and they performed well regardless of who they were with.

 

[Herby]

Or else they risk developing a lack of adaptability which in turn diminishes their long-term potential earnings and their teams’ long-term development goals of having good players.

By going back to college for a 2nd year over the possibility of ending up in the AHL at 19?

If Will Smith has a guaranteed spot he should go, otherwise he's better off at BC. The NCAA is a better developmental environment for teenagers than the AHL.

 

[Bonin21]

Yes, exactly. That’s why Smith (and Leonard and Perrault) not signing right at the end of his season was not surprising because he wouldn’t have been able to burn a year, but Gauthier signed with the Ducks immediately.


Or they could become lazy and complacent and never develop the aspects to their game they’re used to one of the other guys taking care of. If they all go back, they shouldn’t play on the same line.

IMO this rule is stupid and should be changed. Especially for NCAA players.

Mack Celebrini can't burn a year at the end of next season.
Buium and Levshunov can, just because they were born after September 15.

Just make it so any NCAA player can burn a year.