C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2018, 3rd, MTL) Part III

[The90]

KK has stated in an interview that the pace of play in Liiga is so slow and he is having to get used to the slow speed and the trap defensive game.

So I'm not concerned at all that he hasn't acclimated as well as critics on HFboards would like.

Lol. That’s 100% not an excuse. If you have a high hockey iq, that makes the game infinitely easier to follow. Slower players telegraph their plays. Ever watch a former junior player play gents league? I’m sure most of us have, it’s child play because they intuitively know where the puck is going.

and yes I know that’s a different scale. But someone playing several leagues below what they’re used to is what I’m getting at

 

[P10p]

Lol. That’s 100% not an excuse. If you have a high hockey iq, that makes the game infinitely easier to follow. Slower players telegraph their plays. Ever watch a former junior player play gents league? I’m sure most of us have, it’s child play because they intuitively know where the puck is going.

and yes I know that’s a different scale. But someone playing several leagues below what they’re used to is what I’m getting at

Okay hockey Yoda, please educate us more on the complexity of the relationship between junior/beer league and nhl/liga

 

[gifted88]

My memory of Bonk is that he was slow and plodding and wouldn't use his body despite his strength. It doesn't sound much like Kotkaniemi. Is there any reason to predict a late 20s massive regression for Kotkaniemi?

My guess is the guy was comparing the two based on where he sees their production only. Didn't look like a play style comparison.

 

[RipCityPuckers]

Lol. That’s 100% not an excuse. If you have a high hockey iq, that makes the game infinitely easier to follow. Slower players telegraph their plays. Ever watch a former junior player play gents league? I’m sure most of us have, it’s child play because they intuitively know where the puck is going.

and yes I know that’s a different scale. But someone playing several leagues below what they’re used to is what I’m getting at

Is that why every superstar European soccer player who has come over to the MLS goes on to dominate the league?

Oh wait that doesn't happen.

Different leagues in different sports have different characteristics that make them unique. That is why there are countless examples of players who look mediocre at best at a lower level (such as the AHL, NCAA, or even junior) and then go to flourish in a higher league (such as the NHL).

To pretend like there are no variables between leagues, teams, line mates, coaching, etc. and that any "high hockey IQ" 20 year old player can be dropped into any inferior league and be expected to be a top player immediately out of the gate is a moronic take to be honest with you

 

[93LEAFS]

Is that why every superstar European soccer player who has come over to the MLS goes on to dominate the league?

Oh wait that doesn't happen.

Different leagues in different sports have different characteristics that make them unique. That is why there are countless examples of players who look mediocre at best at a lower level (such as the AHL, NCAA, or even junior) and then go to flourish in a higher league (such as the NHL).

To pretend like there are no variables between leagues, teams, line mates, coaching, etc. and that any "high hockey IQ" 20 year old player can be dropped into any inferior league and be expected to be a top player immediately out of the gate is a moronic take to be honest with you

What in his prime European soccer player has come over to even make this a valid comparable? Giovinco is the closest and he just dominated the MLS. Nani, Zlaten, Rooney, etc were all past their primes and came in and made an immediate impact.

I would think all high-end NHLers could be dropped into any Euro league and be better than they were in the NHL, unless they are playing themselves into shape which some guys have done during previous lockouts. Guys who weren't great at lower levels tend to have massively progressed, and if they were sent back to the leagues you mentioned would absolutely dominate them.

 

[Martin Skoula]

What in his prime European soccer player has come over to even make this a valid comparable? Giovinco is the closest and he just dominated the MLS. Nani, Zlaten, Rooney, etc were all past their primes and came in and made an immediate impact.

I would think all high-end NHLers could be dropped into any Euro league and be better than they were in the NHL, unless they are playing themselves into shape which some guys have done during previous lockouts. Guys who weren't great at lower levels tend to have massively progressed, and if they were sent back to the leagues you mentioned would absolutely dominate them.

I think there's at least a handful of good NHLers that would do worse at the AHL level just due to how much more North-South the AHL is, plus the added amount of headhunters with no future looking to make a name for themselves. Playmakers with weak shots and non-elite skating come to mind. Euro leagues might have a similar effect on different types of players depending on the nuances of the league - a young Ovechkin might have lost the physical side of his game if he got neutered by suspensions in most non-NA leagues.

 

[FlyguyOX]

What in his prime European soccer player has come over to even make this a valid comparable? Giovinco is the closest and he just dominated the MLS. Nani, Zlaten, Rooney, etc were all past their primes and came in and made an immediate impact.

I would think all high-end NHLers could be dropped into any Euro league and be better than they were in the NHL, unless they are playing themselves into shape which some guys have done during previous lockouts. Guys who weren't great at lower levels tend to have massively progressed, and if they were sent back to the leagues you mentioned would absolutely dominate them.

chicarito was garbage. Giovani dos santos was garbage.

 

[93LEAFS]

chicarito was garbage. Giovani dos santos was garbage.

Dos Santos was never elite in Europe. Chicharito only really had success as a poacher brought in for late goals on teams that dominate possession. It's not like he was an elite player at West Ham or Sevilla before coming over.

A 3rd overall pick in his D+3 season should be able to dominate the Finnish league. Most top 9 NHL forwards would instantly be among the top 5 best players in that league, and when you have that much of an ability advantage over your competition, you should be an elite player in that league.

 

[SlafCaufield]

Dos Santos was never elite in Europe. Chicharito only really had success as a poacher brought in for late goals on teams that dominate possession. It's not like he was an elite player at West Ham or Sevilla before coming over.

A 3rd overall pick in his D+3 season should be able to dominate the Finnish league. Most top 9 NHL forwards would instantly be among the top 5 best players in that league, and when you have that much of an ability advantage over your competition, you should be an elite player in that league.

What are you going on about smh have you watched any of Kokos games? He's a top player in Liiga already but his stupid coach decided to play your leaf prospect as 1C and they lost 9-1

Why are you talking about Chicarito he sucks

 

[SlafCaufield]

 

[RipCityPuckers]

What in his prime European soccer player has come over to even make this a valid comparable? Giovinco is the closest and he just dominated the MLS. Nani, Zlaten, Rooney, etc were all past their primes and came in and made an immediate impact.

I would think all high-end NHLers could be dropped into any Euro league and be better than they were in the NHL, unless they are playing themselves into shape which some guys have done during previous lockouts. Guys who weren't great at lower levels tend to have massively progressed, and if they were sent back to the leagues you mentioned would absolutely dominate them.

Kotkaniemi is not in his prime either though, he's 20 years old.

And everything being equal, I'd argue it should be a lot easier for a veteran player to transition to a new inferior league while still maintaining their level of play than it would be for a 20 year old doing the same thing

 

[93LEAFS]

Kotkaniemi is not in his prime either though, he's 20 years old.

And everything being equal, I'd argue it should be a lot easier for a veteran player to transition to a new inferior league while still maintaining their level of play than it would be for a 20 year old doing the same thing

How many examples do we have of young guys going back over? We have Matthews going in and dominating the Swiss league at 17. Puljujarvi last year? Kotkaniemi has also played in this league before and grew up in that country. It shouldn't be a massive adjustment.

 

[Just Linda]

Dos Santos was never elite in Europe. Chicharito only really had success as a poacher brought in for late goals on teams that dominate possession. It's not like he was an elite player at West Ham or Sevilla before coming over.

A 3rd overall pick in his D+3 season should be able to dominate the Finnish league. Most top 9 NHL forwards would instantly be among the top 5 best players in that league, and when you have that much of an ability advantage over your competition, you should be an elite player in that league.

Different ice services, different games. Someone like Matthews or Laine would do good in Finland because they can devestate when they get open ice, someone like Gallagher might just be a high end consistent player because he doesn't play the Finnish game.

Max Domi probably would be an amazing Finnish player, Hornqvist might be just average.

 

[RipCityPuckers]

How many examples do we have of young guys going back over? We have Matthews going in and dominating the Swiss league at 17. Puljujarvi last year? Kotkaniemi has also played in this league before and grew up in that country. It shouldn't be a massive adjustment.

And who the hell here is comparing Kotkaniemi to Matthews other than maybe KotkaCaufield who most rationale people are now ignoring anyway lol

I'm not arguing (and I think the vast majority here aren't as well) that Kotka is a stud right now or even a future stud. But does he still have a chance to be a capable 1st line C/very solid 2nd line C? Absolutely. And not dominating in Finland isn't going to change my opinion on that.

He's a 20 year old kid that just went from being terrible in the NHL in Jan, to being very solid in the AHL in late Feb/March. Then was off for 5 months, played well in the NHL playoffs and is back playing hockey 2-3 months later for his 3rd different team in 11 months.

If you don't think those sorts of things can contribute negatively to a 20 year old kid then I don't know what to tell you.

All I'm saying is let's wait until he gets back to the NHL for the 2021 season before we write him off completely

 

[Zahra Starker]

Idk why there is so much hate. Just because somebody doesn't play well after going from NHL to getting injured twice, to the AHL and back in the NHl and now sm ligga doesn't mean he isnt a good player. Everybody thought deli tolvanen was going to be a star because he had 1 good khl season because of having great chemistry and being comfortable with the style of play in that league. Look at him now.

 

[The90]

Is that why every superstar European soccer player who has come over to the MLS goes on to dominate the league?

Oh wait that doesn't happen.

Different leagues in different sports have different characteristics that make them unique. That is why there are countless examples of players who look mediocre at best at a lower level (such as the AHL, NCAA, or even junior) and then go to flourish in a higher league (such as the NHL).

To pretend like there are no variables between leagues, teams, line mates, coaching, etc. and that any "high hockey IQ" 20 year old player can be dropped into any inferior league and be expected to be a top player immediately out of the gate is a moronic take to be honest with you

You mean the over the hill former stars that come over and play mls? I’m shocked they don’t tear it apart. Nice try.

The 20 year old 3rd overall pick should have more than 0-3 in 7gp. End of. The fact that he as a 20 year old is having a tough time reportedly keeping up with or adjusting to the speed of the game is an absolute joke. He’s not getting any faster after 20. You do or you don’t. You get bigger and slower. Find me one player that makes monumental leaps in their skating from the start to the end of their careers.

just because you reallllly realllly want him to be very good doesn’t mean he will be. There are big red flags going off everywhere for Kk. His nhl regular season last year is no bueno. Ppg in ahl is pretty good. 4 g 0 a in 10 games in playoffs is ok, but understood he was a beast other than the scoresheet. 0-3 in 7 in a league many leagues lower than the nhl is a huge red flag. As a third overall pick he should be eating that league for breakfast. And btw this isn’t some new league new language to him. He’s home, in his bed, with mommas cooking, in a league he had already played in. Your ‘oh there’s lots of variables’ argument doesn’t work. It doesn’t get anymore familiar than that. He’s literally lived at home 90% of his hockey life save for 2 years in Montreal.

Hes trending to be a 3c or a 2c on a weak lineup down the middle. There’s nothing wrong with that and I actually like him as a player. The problem is that at 3c you need to nail a superstar player. The only real bonafide superstars that Montreal has are on the wrong side of 30. They finally get a high draft pick again and it looks like he’s not going to be a superstar.

as it stands Montreal looks solid on paper, lots of depth good d and g. But what are they missing up front? A superstar. That’s the problem here. Kk doesn’t fit that bill. Typically young players are oozing with offensive talent but are sheltered to allow them to develop The defensive side of their games too. Can you honestly say that kk is oozing with offensive talent? Intangibles like using the body, working hard and hitting aren’t what I’m talking about. The answer is no and you know it. Again, he’s a good player, just not what you were hoping for, AT THIS POINT.

 

[93LEAFS]

And who the hell here is comparing Kotkaniemi to Matthews other than maybe KotkaCaufield who most rationale people are now ignoring anyway lol

I'm not arguing (and I think the vast majority here aren't as well) that Kotka is a stud right now or even a future stud. But does he still have a chance to be a capable 1st line C/very solid 2nd line C? Absolutely. And not dominating in Finland isn't going to change my opinion on that.

He's a 20 year old kid that just went from being terrible in the NHL in Jan, to being very solid in the AHL in late Feb/March. Then was off for 5 months, played well in the NHL playoffs and is back playing hockey 2-3 months later for his 3rd different team in 11 months.

If you don't think those sorts of things can contribute negatively to a 20 year old kid then I don't know what to tell you.

All I'm saying is let's wait until he gets back to the NHL for the 2021 season before we write him off completely

I'm not writing him off, but he's playing at a level of comp he should be expected to dominate night in and night out given his draft pedigree, his point in development. It'd be foolish to write anyone off after 7 games at any level. But, I do think the its a different league and stuff is just making excuses. It's a league he's played in and its in his home country, and it is a step down from the competition he's been primarily facing the last 2 years. People saying its disappointing or not living up to expectations in that league aren't writing him off, but its not exactly inspiring. There is a very large gap between everything is fine, it's just an adjustment and should be expected, and he should be written off as a bust.

 

[sansabri]

You mean the over the hill former stars that come over and play mls? I’m shocked they don’t tear it apart. Nice try.

The 20 year old 3rd overall pick should have more than 0-3 in 7gp. End of. The fact that he as a 20 year old is having a tough time reportedly keeping up with or adjusting to the speed of the game is an absolute joke. He’s not getting any faster after 20. You do or you don’t. You get bigger and slower. Find me one player that makes monumental leaps in their skating from the start to the end of their careers.

just because you reallllly realllly want him to be very good doesn’t mean he will be. There are big red flags going off everywhere for Kk. His nhl regular season last year is no bueno. Ppg in ahl is pretty good. 4 g 0 a in 10 games in playoffs is ok, but understood he was a beast other than the scoresheet. 0-3 in 7 in a league many leagues lower than the nhl is a huge red flag. As a third overall pick he should be eating that league for breakfast. And btw this isn’t some new league new language to him. He’s home, in his bed, with mommas cooking, in a league he had already played in. Your ‘oh there’s lots of variables’ argument doesn’t work. It doesn’t get anymore familiar than that. He’s literally lived at home 90% of his hockey life save for 2 years in Montreal.

Hes trending to be a 3c or a 2c on a weak lineup down the middle. There’s nothing wrong with that and I actually like him as a player. The problem is that at 3c you need to nail a superstar player. The only real bonafide superstars that Montreal has are on the wrong side of 30. They finally get a high draft pick again and it looks like he’s not going to be a superstar.

as it stands Montreal looks solid on paper, lots of depth good d and g. But what are they missing up front? A superstar. That’s the problem here. Kk doesn’t fit that bill. Typically young players are oozing with offensive talent but are sheltered to allow them to develop The defensive side of their games too. Can you honestly say that kk is oozing with offensive talent? Intangibles like using the body, working hard and hitting aren’t what I’m talking about. The answer is no and you know it. Again, he’s a good player, just not what you were hoping for, AT THIS POINT.

no it isn't

 

[stickty111]

That will happen when you're playing with Hirvonen.

He isn't playing with him. He just needs to play better.

 

[Just Linda]

You mean the over the hill former stars that come over and play mls? I’m shocked they don’t tear it apart. Nice try.

The 20 year old 3rd overall pick should have more than 0-3 in 7gp. End of. The fact that he as a 20 year old is having a tough time reportedly keeping up with or adjusting to the speed of the game is an absolute joke. He’s not getting any faster after 20. You do or you don’t. You get bigger and slower. Find me one player that makes monumental leaps in their skating from the start to the end of their careers.

just because you reallllly realllly want him to be very good doesn’t mean he will be. There are big red flags going off everywhere for Kk. His nhl regular season last year is no bueno. Ppg in ahl is pretty good. 4 g 0 a in 10 games in playoffs is ok, but understood he was a beast other than the scoresheet. 0-3 in 7 in a league many leagues lower than the nhl is a huge red flag. As a third overall pick he should be eating that league for breakfast. And btw this isn’t some new league new language to him. He’s home, in his bed, with mommas cooking, in a league he had already played in. Your ‘oh there’s lots of variables’ argument doesn’t work. It doesn’t get anymore familiar than that. He’s literally lived at home 90% of his hockey life save for 2 years in Montreal.

Hes trending to be a 3c or a 2c on a weak lineup down the middle. There’s nothing wrong with that and I actually like him as a player. The problem is that at 3c you need to nail a superstar player. The only real bonafide superstars that Montreal has are on the wrong side of 30. They finally get a high draft pick again and it looks like he’s not going to be a superstar.

as it stands Montreal looks solid on paper, lots of depth good d and g. But what are they missing up front? A superstar. That’s the problem here. Kk doesn’t fit that bill. Typically young players are oozing with offensive talent but are sheltered to allow them to develop The defensive side of their games too. Can you honestly say that kk is oozing with offensive talent? Intangibles like using the body, working hard and hitting aren’t what I’m talking about. The answer is no and you know it. Again, he’s a good player, just not what you were hoping for, AT THIS POINT.

He's not adjusting to the pace of the game because its too fast, hes adjusting to going from playing an 'in your face' style of play to playing a more measured, trap-style system. He was playing a very specific style for the last two years, working on the skills he needs to be a successful NHL player. In Finland, him using those skills that made him effective arent really useful right now. If he battles in the corner, he's going to be out of position. If he closes the gap, he's left himself out of position, etc etc. He's looking quite good while playing, 90% of his shifts are fantastic but he makes the occasional misplay that would be something that works in the NHL but doesnt in Finland.

You point out him having a disappointing regular season last year... he was 19. There were only 9 players in the league from his draft or the draft after that have become NHL regulars. He wasn't struggling in juniors at 19, he was struggling at the NHL level. Saying he was injured last season which contributed to his struggles isnt a variable as much as it is an explanation because he had a full NHL season where he contributed as an effective 3C and then a playoffs series where he was again effective as a 3C.

I have a hard time believing that him as 20 year old wont develop from beyond his current role. No I dont think he will become Joe Thorton but low end 1C isnt beyond him at all. He may likely end up as a 2C, cool. You cant base his potential off a 30 game stretch thats surrounded by 2 good stretches of game. He looked great at 18, he struggled at 19. Only 6 players from his draft class including him have played more than half an NHL season.

Evander Kane, Chara, Duchene, Hornqvist, McDonagh, Simmonds... off the top of my head, those are all guys who played in Europe during the lockout and struggled. Heck Kane got 2 points in 12 games or something like that playing KHL (Minsk I believe). All of these guys were (or became) top 6 forwards or top pairing dmen in the NHL. Lots of players in the lockout sturggled to adapt to the leagues they were playing, some popped right in and produced but others took a while to get warmed up. This mindset that NHL talent will immediately become game-breakers in Europe was disproved during the lockout. For every Malkin there was a Kane during the lockout, dont judge a player by production, judge him by the skills he displays. Its bad scouting to look at the numbers and not the whys of the numbers

 

[FreeMcdavid]

Oooof not looking good for Jesperi.

Montreal fans and media are going to eat this guy alive and turn on him so fast. I feel sorry for him.

Its not his fault he got drafted 3rd overall.

Who is even responsible for having him that high on their draft board in MTL?

Imagine how good Quinn Hughes or Brady Tkachuk would look good right now wearing the Habs jersey on a nightly basis.

He has played 115 NHL games. Its clear MTL rushed this prospect and might ultimitely face the consequences of doing so.

 

[hockeyman1]

Its clear MTL rushed this prospect and might ultimitely face the consequences of doing so.

The more i read 'prospect xy was rushed', the more i start to believe this is the modern sports version of 'he would have been a good student, but his classmates were so mean to him'.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

How many examples do we have of young guys going back over? We have Matthews going in and dominating the Swiss league at 17. Puljujarvi last year? Kotkaniemi has also played in this league before and grew up in that country. It shouldn't be a massive adjustment.

I mean...Kotka scored 10+19 in 57 games on his draft year in Liiga. He PROBABLY hasn't regressed from that. I didn't find him very impressive back then, but he did look a lot better on the smaller ice. Couldn't this sometimes be an individual thing? Like others have pointed out, it's not completely out of the ordinary for even an established NHL player to struggle with larger ice & completely different playstyle. Hell, there's even players who struggle on one NHL team because of the playstyle and succeed on another.

I just find it silly how many people have an opinion to give, even though it's impossible for them to even watch Liiga.

Just a few months ago Habs fans were happy with how Jesperi played in the playoffs, and now there's panic, as if something's actually changed.

 

[The90]

He's not adjusting to the pace of the game because its too fast, hes adjusting to going from playing an 'in your face' style of play to playing a more measured, trap-style system. He was playing a very specific style for the last two years, working on the skills he needs to be a successful NHL player. In Finland, him using those skills that made him effective arent really useful right now. If he battles in the corner, he's going to be out of position. If he closes the gap, he's left himself out of position, etc etc. He's looking quite good while playing, 90% of his shifts are fantastic but he makes the occasional misplay that would be something that works in the NHL but doesnt in Finland.

You point out him having a disappointing regular season last year... he was 19. There were only 9 players in the league from his draft or the draft after that have become NHL regulars. He wasn't struggling in juniors at 19, he was struggling at the NHL level. Saying he was injured last season which contributed to his struggles isnt a variable as much as it is an explanation because he had a full NHL season where he contributed as an effective 3C and then a playoffs series where he was again effective as a 3C.

I have a hard time believing that him as 20 year old wont develop from beyond his current role. No I dont think he will become Joe Thorton but low end 1C isnt beyond him at all. He may likely end up as a 2C, cool. You cant base his potential off a 30 game stretch thats surrounded by 2 good stretches of game. He looked great at 18, he struggled at 19. Only 6 players from his draft class including him have played more than half an NHL season.

Evander Kane, Chara, Duchene, Hornqvist, McDonagh, Simmonds... off the top of my head, those are all guys who played in Europe during the lockout and struggled. Heck Kane got 2 points in 12 games or something like that playing KHL (Minsk I believe). All of these guys were (or became) top 6 forwards or top pairing dmen in the NHL. Lots of players in the lockout sturggled to adapt to the leagues they were playing, some popped right in and produced but others took a while to get warmed up. This mindset that NHL talent will immediately become game-breakers in Europe was disproved during the lockout. For every Malkin there was a Kane during the lockout, dont judge a player by production, judge him by the skills he displays. Its bad scouting to look at the numbers and not the whys of the numbers

Cool and what happens when you combine all of his stats from last year in the NHL, a short stint in the AHL and this year in Liiga? Still paint a good picture?

it’s underwhelming no matter how much you want to put a cute little dress on it. He’s not a natural scorer.

 

[Goldenhands]

Oooof not looking good for Jesperi.

Montreal fans and media are going to eat this guy alive and turn on him so fast. I feel sorry for him.

Its not his fault he got drafted 3rd overall.

Who is even responsible for having him that high on their draft board in MTL?

Imagine how good Quinn Hughes or Brady Tkachuk would look good right now wearing the Habs jersey on a nightly basis.

He has played 115 NHL games. Its clear MTL rushed this prospect and might ultimitely face the consequences of doing so.

LOL, I guess you missed MTL playoffs where he was one of our best players... KK is in training camp right now with Assat, he is chasing rust away and getting ready for the real training camp that should start in about 2 weeks, there is no need to go full force and has probably been told to avoid injuries, he also jumped in the action while his teamates were already skating for weeks...

I expect KK getting close to 50 pts next season, has matured alot both mentally and physically and will have better wingers to play with...