C Leo Carlsson (2023, 2nd, ANA)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don’t see how it’s outside of relevant discussion to discuss him compared to other potential picks.

Not like the Ducks needed to take a center to begin with. It was also controversial that he was the center they picked. They had the first choice to make in the draft. He’s had a good D+1 if you take his season in a vacuum, but given how stacked of a draft it was all the teams drafting in the top 10 will be on alert to make sure they didn’t draft the second or third line guy as opposed to the potential superstar.

 

[HanSolo]

I don’t see how it’s outside of relevant discussion to discuss him compared to other potential picks.

Not like the Ducks needed to take a center to begin with. It was also controversial that he was the center they picked. They had the first choice to make in the draft. He’s had a good D+1 if you take his season in a vacuum, but given how stacked of a draft it was all the teams drafting in the top 10 will be on alert to make sure they didn’t draft the second or third line guy as opposed to the potential superstar.

You're not going to prove Anaheim made a mistake picking Leo over Michkov until the latter starts playing in the NHL. You can make all the comparisons you want but it's not going to change that production in a D+1 year at age 18 is rarely indicative of a failure to find success as an NHL star in the future. A lot of factors, many outside the young player's control can affect an 18 year old's first year of NHL play, not least of which is that usually a young kid making the NHL right out of the draft comes into the league on a team bad enough to draft high to get them.

By way of more examples here's some notable18 year old seasons inclusive of Barkov:

Mark Messier: 75 gp 33p (36 point pace)
Stamkos: 79gp 46p (47 pt pace)
Stutzle: 53 gp 29p (44 pt pace)
Pastrnak: 46gp 27p (48pt pace)
Barkov: 54gp 24p (36 pt pace)
G. Howe: 58gp 22p (31 pt pace)
J. Hughes: 61gp 21p (28 pt pace)

Guys like Bedard, Gretzky, McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon are the exception. Not the rule.

Now, that's not to say Carlsson for sure will reach the level of these guys I listed (definitely not the generational guys barring some miracle) I can't predict the future. But the idea that Leo's early production is indicative of a limitation on his potential such that Anaheim made a mistake picking him over Fantilli or Michkov completely ignores that: 1) Leo plays for an utterly inept team offensively and defensively (Ducks are second to last in GF and SOG/GP, and would probably be lower if you counted the last 3/4 of the season); 2) he plays with two players that he has little to no chemistry with (including Troy Terry who is very much a puck hog); 3) the kid has suffered three fairly significant injuries in one season; 4) he's still adapting to the pace, size, speed, schedule, and rink size of the NHL before reaching (American) drinking age.

And it also ignores that there's nothing to compare Leo's production to as Michkov is not in the NHL right now and Fantilli's season ended due to injury.

Could he have performed better? Sure. But I don't think the fact that he didn't is proof that he won't.

And in any case, you're on the first or second page of this thread casting doubts that he should be seen as anything special based on performance at the U-18s so I feel like you're looking at base stats in a D+1 as a confirmation bias device instead of giving any credence to necessary context.

 

[Boxscore]

I don't think I've ever seen as much "concern" over a young player as I have with Carlsson. It's crazy imho. This kid is an absolute stud and will be a horse for the Ducks for many years. I said before, and I'll say it again -- there are only two forwards in the draft I would have selected over Carlsson -- Bedard and Michkov. That's it. Not Fantilli. And, who knows if Michkov would have even been open to play with the Ducks. Due to his status in the KHL, passing on Carlsson for Michkov would have been a big risk. I may have taken in, but I cannot blame the Ducks for not.

For anyone swooning over Fantilli vs. Carlsson, Adam scored 27 points in 49gp this year and Leo 26 points in 50gp. That's splitting hairs. And when you consider that Fantilli was stepping into a situation with much more talent and veteran leadership around him than Carlsson, it's borderline criminal that he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

Carlsson has already shown glimpses of being a world-class player. Just look at his goal the other night. The Ducks just have to be carefully to not throw him to the wolves and they need some veterans to insulate him and limit the damage until they're ready to begin contending again. Once Carlsson emerges, he's going to be a 35g/55a/90pt. force who does everything well and plays key roles in all situations.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don't think I've ever seen as much "concern" over a young player as I have with Carlsson. It's crazy imho. This kid is an absolute stud and will be a horse for the Ducks for many years. I said before, and I'll say it again -- there are only two forwards in the draft I would have selected over Carlsson -- Bedard and Michkov. That's it. Not Fantilli. And, who knows if Michkov would have even been open to play with the Ducks. Due to his status in the KHL, passing on Carlsson for Michkov would have been a big risk. I may have taken in, but I cannot blame the Ducks for not.

For anyone swooning over Fantilli vs. Carlsson, Adam scored 27 points in 49gp this year and Leo 26 points in 50gp. That's splitting hairs. And when you consider that Fantilli was stepping into a situation with much more talent and veteran leadership around him than Carlsson, it's borderline criminal that he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

Carlsson has already shown glimpses of being a world-class player. Just look at his goal the other night. The Ducks just have to be carefully to not throw him to the wolves and they need some veterans to insulate him and limit the damage until they're ready to begin contending again. Once Carlsson emerges, he's going to be a 35g/55a/90pt. force who does everything well and plays key roles in all situations.

I’m not worried about carlsson at all…. I was in the fantilli camp, but I forgot about fantilli when I saw carlsson play.

As for michkov, Anaheim has basically avoided Russians for a while…. He wasn’t even on my radar as a realistic pick

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Fantilli vs. Carlsson, Adam scored 27 points in 49gp this year and Leo 26 points in 50gp. That's splitting hairs. And when you consider that Fantilli was stepping into a situation with much more talent and veteran leadership around him than Carlsson, it's borderline criminal that he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

Borderline criminal he didn’t outshine Carlsson ? Yeah sure, all that veteran leadership in Columbus. A team almost last in the standings and just league filling since ages. No he is really playing in a winning environment.

Shameful

 

[Garl]

Lol, you have no idea actually about it, and as I said I had in mind exactly that dude, Garl. Because he used to say so many times how great Carlsson was and how SHL was much better than KHL...

I said that Carlsson had a better draft season than Michkov, but I did not say that he is a better prospect.

As for SHL, KHL, Carlsson, I just dont follow you at all LOL

 

[HanSolo]

I don't think I've ever seen as much "concern" over a young player as I have with Carlsson. It's crazy imho. This kid is an absolute stud and will be a horse for the Ducks for many years. I said before, and I'll say it again -- there are only two forwards in the draft I would have selected over Carlsson -- Bedard and Michkov. That's it. Not Fantilli. And, who knows if Michkov would have even been open to play with the Ducks. Due to his status in the KHL, passing on Carlsson for Michkov would have been a big risk. I may have taken in, but I cannot blame the Ducks for not.

For anyone swooning over Fantilli vs. Carlsson, Adam scored 27 points in 49gp this year and Leo 26 points in 50gp. That's splitting hairs. And when you consider that Fantilli was stepping into a situation with much more talent and veteran leadership around him than Carlsson, it's borderline criminal that he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

Carlsson has already shown glimpses of being a world-class player. Just look at his goal the other night. The Ducks just have to be carefully to not throw him to the wolves and they need some veterans to insulate him and limit the damage until they're ready to begin contending again. Once Carlsson emerges, he's going to be a 35g/55a/90pt. force who does everything well and plays key roles in all situations.

Well. I don't know how true this is. Certainly better veteran leadership and Columbus has been better at offense.

With Leo a lot of it comes down to personal adaptation. Some shifts he does things with the puck that most NHLers can't (which is a good sign that with more experience and physical growth he'll excel past most of his competition) others he'll try to skate past a defender or force a pass that gets cut off and that's just an inexperience and adapting to the timing he needs with less space against bigger and better defenses than he faced in the SHL.

Add in that Terry is a guy who always tries to play lone wolf hero puck and Killorn most shifts is a guy who just pushes the puck around and doesn't have natural chemistry with Leo, and it's not the most conducive setting for him to be on the scoresheet. I'd add that after his last injury, Leo seems to have been more focused on trying to set up these linemates with assists they're not converting on than ripping the puck himself.

Agree with most of what you said though. Leo shows a lot of promise most of the time. But he's not immune to the general Ducks problem that they've been playing very subpar and disinterested hockey since the trade deadline. Last night as an example, the Ducks played well enough to match Seattle's pace for about twelve minutes, then they have one bad turnover laden shift that leads to a goal against and their game completely collapsed from that point on. Leo didn't look great but he was one of the better players who was actually trying while mostly everyone else was playing defeated and like amateurs.

 

[Leonardo87]

Folks,

Going to lay this out here right now. If you are going to troll about the Ducks not picking a player over Carlsson, this is not the thread for you.

This thread is to discuss the play and progress of Leo Carlsson. Comparisons are welcome like him and Fantilli who are both in the NHL now.

Thank you.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

And in any case, you're on the first or second page of this thread casting doubts that he should be seen as anything special based on performance at the U-18s so I feel like you're looking at base stats in a D+1 as a confirmation bias device instead of giving any credence to necessary context.

This has to be a joke. Resorting to such underhanded tactics is an easy way to lose respect.

You find a post from two and a half (or more) years ago and are trying to play some gotcha game because I dared to pushback on the idea that everything is great and Carlsson is immune from criticism.

How about my recent opinions? While we're at it, let's see your thoughts about Carlsson at that time too and we can compare notes about what we thought. Carlsson has improved since he was a U18 and I was pretty up front that I changed my opinion on him during the course of last season.

You are completely reaching to claim I'm looking for confirmation bias. I'm helping to defend a valid view from a poster that came under attack from someone trying to play prevent defense. Not because of confirmation bias. It's because I read the posts and informed myself on the issue.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Folks,

Going to lay this out here right now. If you are going to troll about the Ducks not picking a player over Carlsson, this is not the thread for you.

This thread is to discuss the play and progress of Leo Carlsson. Comparisons are welcome like him and Fantilli who are both in the NHL now.

Thank you.

^^^ that’s my mod !

 

[HanSolo]

This has to be a joke. Resorting to such underhanded tactics is an easy way to lose respect.

You find a post from two and a half (or more) years ago and are trying to play some gotcha game because I dared to pushback on the idea that everything is great and Carlsson is immune from criticism.

How about my recent opinions? While we're at it, let's see your thoughts about Carlsson at that time too and we can compare notes about what we thought. Carlsson has improved since he was a U18 and I was pretty up front that I changed my opinion on him during the course of last season.

You are completely reaching to claim I'm looking for confirmation bias. I'm helping to defend a valid view from a poster that came under attack from someone trying to play prevent defense. Not because of confirmation bias. It's because I read the posts, informed myself on the issue, and thought the poster was onto something that might be a little inconvenient to bring up to some but is probably on the right track in terms of accuracy.

And yet you still have nothing to say-in all that rambling about one assumption I made-about context provided by someone who's actually watched most of his games this year.

And no one is saying Leo is immune from criticism. I criticized Leo in this thread and in several Ducks GDTs the past few games. But when the source of the discussion is a renewal of the notion that the Ducks made a mistake picking him over other guys, I think it's fair to point out that raw production numbers in a D+1 season (particularly when the prospect at issue is a euro player adapting to a very different style of hockey) are an unreliable metric for future success in this league without contemplation about situational context. I think it's fair to point out that other 18-19 year olds fresh out of the draft that went on to be superstars had similar or markedly worse scoring struggles. And I think it's fair to point out that it's extremely difficult to impossible to compare the subject prospect to a kid who is playing in a very different league, under different circumstances, with a different quality of competition and make the call that Anaheim f***ed up in picking prospect A over prospect B.

If you'd like to address any of those considerations instead of complain for four paragraphs about one assumption I made, I'd be more than willing to have that conversation.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

And yet you still have nothing to say-in all that rambling about one assumption I made-about context provided by someone who's actually watched most of his games this year.

And no one is saying Leo is immune from criticism. I criticized Leo in this thread and in several Ducks GDTs the past few games. But when the source of the discussion is a renewal of the notion that the Ducks made a mistake picking him over other guys, I think it's fair to point out that raw production numbers in a D+1 season (particularly when the prospect at issue is a euro player adapting to a very different style of hockey) are an unreliable metric for future success in this league without contemplation about situational context. I think it's fair to point out that other 18-19 year olds fresh out of the draft that went on to be superstars had similar or markedly worse scoring struggles. And I think it's fair to point out that it's extremely difficult to impossible to compare the subject prospect to a kid who is playing in a very different league, under different circumstances, with a different quality of competition and make the call that Anaheim f***ed up in picking prospect A over prospect B.

If you'd like to address any of those considerations instead of complain for four paragraphs about one assumption I made, I'd be more than willing to have that conversation.

Did you do anything other than ramble and out of context look for the juiciest quote you could find from my opinions on Carlsson over the years?

You attacked me and claimed I'm using confirmation bias. You even asserted that I was attempting to compare Carlsson to Michkov. I didn't name any player to compare him to. I was generally speaking about Carlsson's situation. I don't know why you are surprised after all that I wouldn't take well to your post.

 

[HanSolo]

Did you do anything other than ramble and out of context look for the juiciest quote you could find from my opinions on Carlsson over the years?

You attacked me and claimed I'm using confirmation bias. You even asserted that I was attempting to compare Carlsson to Michkov. I didn't name any player to compare him to. I was generally speaking about Carlsson's situation. I don't know why you are surprised after all that I wouldn't take well to your post.

So, no then.

Like apologies for a bad observation. I offered to keep the conversation on the subject and you don't seem interested so let's just leave it at that.

 

[MNRube]

And when you consider that Fantilli was stepping into a situation with much more talent and veteran leadership around him than Carlsson, it's borderline criminal that he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

Utter nonsense.

 

[majormajor]

For anyone swooning over Fantilli vs. Carlsson, Adam scored 27 points in 49gp this year and Leo 26 points in 50gp. That's splitting hairs. And when you consider that Fantilli was stepping into a situation with much more talent and veteran leadership around him than Carlsson, it's borderline criminal that he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

I have zero concern that Carlsson will be anything less than an elite center. He's going to be great.

But this is some shoddy work. Columbus does not have a better situation for a young scorer to come into. Both Columbus and Anaheim lack leadership, they both have a lot of talented misfits and young unripened talent.


Carlsson played 14:08 per game at 5v5 and scored 1.09 points per 60.

Fantilli played 12:30 per game at 5v5 and scored 2.05 points per 60. Almost double. You can adjust for team 5v5 goals and it still isn't going to be close.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Leo's generally had a very rough 2nd half of his season. There have been patches of stellar play - measured more accurately in terms of shifts rather than even games - but they've been few and far between for a bit. I do think he's just a bit worn out and the injuries have probably upped his scare factor somewhat. I expect him to score at least 60 points next year, but wouldn't be surprised if he goes far beyond that if he can stay healthy.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I am probably missing something, but in the games I’ve seen of him I don’t see much at this point that looks like that of a very high pick. Big and skates pretty well with some puck skills. Looks pretty raw.

You might have the worst track record for evaluating talent I've ever seen.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I don’t see how it’s outside of relevant discussion to discuss him compared to other potential picks.

Not like the Ducks needed to take a center to begin with. It was also controversial that he was the center they picked. They had the first choice to make in the draft. He’s had a good D+1 if you take his season in a vacuum, but given how stacked of a draft it was all the teams drafting in the top 10 will be on alert to make sure they didn’t draft the second or third line guy as opposed to the potential superstar.

Your post seems sus considering only four prospects from the 2023 draft played in the NHL in their D+1 season to posit about potential superstar, 2nd line, or 3rd line guy. Take a seat and watch a while since it should be illogical to believe a prospect's D+1 is their finite development for the rest of their career. We can revisit the prospects in five years.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

You might have the worst track record for evaluating talent I've ever seen.

In his defense, maybe carlsson wasn’t actually playing in the games he saw and he held that against him

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

You might have the worst track record for evaluating talent I've ever seen.

If Carlsson, Bedard and Fantilli stay healthy they should be the top 3 players in that draft.

 

[Kalv]

Make that draft again and I'm still picking Leo with #2 any day of the week. If someone else would make another pick, that's totally fine as well

 

[ZEBROA]

I have zero concern that Carlsson will be anything less than an elite center. He's going to be great.

But this is some shoddy work. Columbus does not have a better situation for a young scorer to come into. Both Columbus and Anaheim lack leadership, they both have a lot of talented misfits and young unripened talent.


Carlsson played 14:08 per game at 5v5 and scored 1.09 points per 60.

Fantilli played 12:30 per game at 5v5 and scored 2.05 points per 60. Almost double. You can adjust for team 5v5 goals and it still isn't going to be close.

Are u saying that Fantilli is almost double as good as Carlsson?

I thought Fantilli would have double goals but less assist and worse on D. And worse impact in advanced stats. But expected Carlsson to have more growing pains, litterly, and more adjustment problems.

 

[Boxscore]

Well. I don't know how true this is. Certainly better veteran leadership and Columbus has been better at offense.

With Leo a lot of it comes down to personal adaptation. Some shifts he does things with the puck that most NHLers can't (which is a good sign that with more experience and physical growth he'll excel past most of his competition) others he'll try to skate past a defender or force a pass that gets cut off and that's just an inexperience and adapting to the timing he needs with less space against bigger and better defenses than he faced in the SHL.

Add in that Terry is a guy who always tries to play lone wolf hero puck and Killorn most shifts is a guy who just pushes the puck around and doesn't have natural chemistry with Leo, and it's not the most conducive setting for him to be on the scoresheet. I'd add that after his last injury, Leo seems to have been more focused on trying to set up these linemates with assists they're not converting on than ripping the puck himself.

Agree with most of what you said though. Leo shows a lot of promise most of the time. But he's not immune to the general Ducks problem that they've been playing very subpar and disinterested hockey since the trade deadline. Last night as an example, the Ducks played well enough to match Seattle's pace for about twelve minutes

And this is exactly why the Ducks need to surround Carlsson and co. with some vets with high compete levels that know how to play. Similarly to what the Flyers did this season by having the right vets mentor the kids and show them how to give an honest 60-minute effort. As for the mistakes and adjustments, Leo is still a puppy. Him playing in the NHL at all this season was gravy for me... let alone showing some flashes of pure brilliance.

 

[Boxscore]

Borderline criminal he didn’t outshine Carlsson ? Yeah sure, all that veteran leadership in Columbus. A team almost last in the standings and just league filling since ages. No he is really playing in a winning environment.

Shameful

You're looking at the results now and playing MMQB imo. Fantilli was heading into the season with established all-star level players in Gaudreau, Werenski, Laine, etc. plus other vets like Jenner, Severson, and Provorov... in addition to nice young talent like Kent Johnson, Marchenko, Sillinger, and potentially Jiricek. Yes, ultimately the Jackets suffered some key injuries and ended up underachieving, but Fantilli headed into the season with much more talent and proven performers around him than Leo Carlsson did. Even early on when the Jackets were relatively heathy and the fans were buzzing with expectations, Fantilli performed like a "good rookie" but nothing that blew the doors off. Imho, swap Carlsson with Fantilli and the Jackets would have had a better overall season as would Carlsson. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

You're looking at the results now and playing MMQB imo. Fantilli was heading into the season with established all-star level players in Gaudreau, Werenski, Laine, etc. plus other vets like Jenner, Severson, and Provorov... in addition to nice young talent like Kent Johnson, Marchenko, Sillinger, and potentially Jiricek. Yes, ultimately the Jackets suffered some key injuries and ended up underachieving, but Fantilli headed into the season with much more talent and proven performers around him than Leo Carlsson did. Even early on when the Jackets were relatively heathy and the fans were buzzing with expectations, Fantilli performed like a "good rookie" but nothing that blew the doors off. Imho, swap Carlsson with Fantilli and the Jackets would have had a better overall season as would Carlsson. Just my opinion of course.

All Star level players, Laine, Gaudreau & Co ? Vets like Provorov and Severson and the Jackets underperformed ? Well that’s a statement. Columbus has underperformed ever since they have entered the league.

According to you one will be a stud (Carlsson) which could be true but Fantili was “just good” this season AND don’t forget….with an all star level cast surrounding him.

I am not sure what I am reading here.

Hahaha