Byfuglien

[Bob E]

When he's good he's very, very good. When he's bad he's ....... well, you know.

I don't think we should focus in on every mistake or questionable play with Buff anymore than we should dissect every goal for Pav. I wonder if Buff's play might deteriorate after the move back to D is made permanent. I think that unless Buff can change sides successfully the only sensible way to go with it is to trade Bogo. This is not necessarily a bad thing as long as we get full value for the trade. My only real worry is that Buff ages out early but the probability is that he still has 5-6 good years in him.

Completely disagree.

Don't see that as sensible at all, IMO.

Edit: my vote would be to return Buff to forward and pp specialist. Able to fill in on d when needed, like now.

Bogo, and at times Trouba, has been given the tough match-ups and assignments for past couple of years. There's a reason for that.

 

[StronGeer]

Do we really need to sully onions by lumping them in with Flyers fans?

I like onions. They're like ogres.

 

[garret9]

Buff (D) > Trouba / Enstrom > Bogo > Other Jets D > Buff F > Any person to wear a Flyers jersey as a defenseman after Pronger went veg


But on a serious note:

 

[Bob E]

Buff (D) > Trouba / Enstrom > Bogo > Other Jets D > Buff F > Any person to wear a Flyers jersey as a defenseman after Pronger went veg


But on a serious note:

Basing it on Corsi? Or something else? D is small sample size.

Edit: For instance, goal differential. Buff on for 4 more goals against, than goals for, in past 5 games.

 

[garret9]

Basing it on Corsi? Or something else? D is small sample size.

Oh those two things are separate thoughts...

But I'd still put Byfuglien > Bogosian and currently Trouba but that could change.

Don't just need Corsi. There really isn't any metric that makes either of those two better than Buff.

Since you want larger samples:

Keep in mind Byfuglien's goal differential while on the ice for D is actually above that for the minutes Buff is on the bench, unlike forward where it's below team differential.
ie: Team quality (mostly due to better goaltending from Hutch) under exaggerates the difference between those goal differentials.

 

[Bob E]

Oh those two things are separate thoughts...

But I'd still put Byfuglien > Bogosian and currently Trouba but that could change.

Don't just need Corsi. There really isn't any metric that makes either of those two better than Buff.

In what way?

Buff generates offence and goals for himself and others. Including the opposition.

When he's a minus player in goal differential, he's not generating enough offence to offset being scored on. I'd take Bogo and Troubs any day over Buff. Not close for me, either.

 

[Romang67]

Oh those two things are separate thoughts...

But I'd still put Byfuglien > Bogosian and currently Trouba but that could change.

Don't just need Corsi. There really isn't any metric that makes either of those two better than Buff.

I present to you: The dreaminess metric.

P.S. There weren't quite as many pictures of Trouba looking dreamy as I hoped.

P.P.S. I should probably delete my search history on google.

 

[Huffer]

Thanks for those numbers Garret. Question, are they 5v5 only, or every situation?

I'd love to see 5v5 only if that was possible.

 

[garret9]

In what way?

Buff generates offence and goals for himself and others. Including the opposition.

When he's a minus player in goal differential, he's not generating enough offence to offset being scored on. I'd take Bogo and Troubs any day over Buff. Not close for me, either.

So is Bogosian and Trouba, and worse so. Remember, the Jets/Thrashers were a bad team with a 0.906 sv% starter.

Byfuglien (D) Jets own 49% of goals with Byfuglien on the ice (and is positive relative to off ice)
Bogosian Jets own 45.3% of goals with Bogosian on ice.
Trouba Jets own 46.9% of goals with Trouba on ice.

You could take Bogo and Troubs over Buff as that's subjective, but literately there is not a single number over a significant sample size that puts those over Buff...

Thanks for those numbers Garret. Question, are they 5v5 only, or every situation?

I'd love to see 5v5 only if that was possible.

Yes only 5v5. Doing all strengths would be pointless as Buff is playing D all the time for PP.

 

[ps241]

So is Bogosian and Trouba, and worse so.

Byfuglien (D) Jets own 49% of goals with Byfuglien on the ice (and is positive relative to off ice)
Bogosian Jets own 45.3% of goals with Bogosian on ice.
Trouba Jets own 46.9% of goals with Trouba on ice.

You could take Bogo and Troubs over Buff as that's subjective, but literately there is not a single number over a significant sample size that puts those over Buff...



Yes only 5v5. Doing all strengths would be pointless as Buff is playing D all the time for PP.

It will be interesting to see what Maurice does when or if Bogo and Trouba get healthy this season?

 

[Bob E]

Oh those two things are separate thoughts...

But I'd still put Byfuglien > Bogosian and currently Trouba but that could change.

Don't just need Corsi. There really isn't any metric that makes either of those two better than Buff.

Since you want larger samples:

Keep in mind Byfuglien's goal differential while on the ice for D is actually above that for the minutes Buff is on the bench, unlike forward where it's below team differential.
ie: Team quality (mostly due to better goaltending from Hutch) under exaggerates the difference between those goal differentials.

That includes pp time? Or is it simply 5v5?

 

[KingBogo]

When he's good he's very, very good. When he's bad he's ....... well, you know.

I don't think we should focus in on every mistake or questionable play with Buff anymore than we should dissect every goal for Pav. I wonder if Buff's play might deteriorate after the move back to D is made permanent. I think that unless Buff can change sides successfully the only sensible way to go with it is to trade Bogo. This is not necessarily a bad thing as long as we get full value for the trade. My only real worry is that Buff ages out early but the probability is that he still has 5-6 good years in him.

There is absolutely nothing sensible about trading Bogosian. Jets don't have enough good defenseman as it is and you want to trade a young top 4 who happens to be signed long term. Teams virtually never trade away young top 4 defenseman since most teams are just happy to find them.

 

[garret9]

That includes pp time? Or is it simply 5v5?

5v5 only.

Only way to properly compare Buff on FWD vs D

 

[Bob E]

So is Bogosian and Trouba, and worse so. Remember, the Jets/Thrashers were bad team's with a 0.906 sv% starter.

Byfuglien (D) Jets own 49% of goals with Byfuglien on the ice (and is positive relative to off ice)
Bogosian Jets own 45.3% of goals with Bogosian on ice.
Trouba Jets own 46.9% of goals with Trouba on ice.

You could take Bogo and Troubs over Buff as that's subjective, but literately there is not a single number over a significant sample size that puts those over Buff...



Yes only 5v5. Doing all strengths would be pointless as Buff is playing D all the time for PP.

Are we talking about the opposition scoring, not just Jets scoring?

 

[garret9]

Are we talking about the opposition scoring, not just Jets scoring?

Do you win games for outscoring or for allowing few goals?
But, all 3 have similar GA/60 though (within 0.0x/60).

Makes sense given their shots against and for distributions:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...un-with-shot-location-winnipeg-jets-defenders

For fun I recently looked at a different shot differential, looking at shot differentials weighted to shot location:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...-case-study-shot-quality-versus-shot-quantity

 

[Bob E]

Do you win games for outscoring or for allowing few goals?
But, all 3 have similar GA/60 though (within 0.0x/60).

Makes sense given their shots against and for distributions:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...un-with-shot-location-winnipeg-jets-defenders

For fun I recently looked at a different shot differential, looking at shot differentials weighted to shot location:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...-case-study-shot-quality-versus-shot-quantity

Is the ga/60 for this year, or from 2011 onwards?

 

[Koonta]

I sometimes wonder if Buff had never been a forward before, like when he was with Chicago that there would ever be a question regarding where he should play.

If he had been a D from the beginning when he broke in with Chicago and he was never switched to FW would people just look at him as just strictly as he is what he is.

Like does anyone look at Karlsson or Subban and say maybe we should try them at forward because they sometimes have errors when they get burned as a defenseman. No I don't think so, but with Buff people do because he played as a FW before

 

[Bob E]

It will be interesting to see what Maurice does when or if Bogo and Trouba get healthy this season?

I agree, ps.

And with a few more games like last night, that highlights the good (goal) and bad (pinch and Giroux's strip) of having Buff on d, will be interesting to see what they prefer.

 

[garret9]

Is the ga/60 for this year, or from 2011 onwards?

No... just this year for Byfuglien's GA/60 is 1.6 which is a full 1.00 lower than those 3 usually have.

 

[Bob E]

I sometimes wonder if Buff had never been a forward before, like when he was with Chicago that there would ever be a question regarding where he should play.

If he had been a D from the beginning when he broke in with Chicago and he was never switched to FW would people just look at him as just strictly as he is what he is.

Like does anyone look at Karlsson or Subban and say maybe we should try them at forward because they sometimes have errors when they get burned as a defenseman. No I don't think so, but with Buff people do because he played as a FW before

He was a dman in Jr. They move him to forward to take the risk out of his game. That, and they had organizational strength on d at the time.

Thrashers moved Bogo up to wing for a while when he was struggling and was constantly in trade rumours.

 

[Bob E]

No... just this year for Byfuglien's GA/60 is 1.6 which is a full 1.00 lower than those 3 usually have.

Just as a dman? I'm floored.

 

[garret9]

Just as a dman? I'm floored.

Yes... All three of the d average around ~2.6x GA per 60, but Buff is at 1.60 this season as a D-man. It's not sustainable though.
Byfuglien's Corsi% is 54.5% and his Goal% is at 63.6% (ie: Jets own 63.6% of goals with him on ice or he has a 2GF : 1GA ratio). That goal% is over inflated and will settle down more towards his Corsi%.


As HFBoards poster gm0ney recently said:

Byfuglien would look a lot better if Pavelec didn't have a 0.000 sv% on Byfuglien's mistakes haha

 

[Bob E]

Yes... All three of the d average around ~2.6x GA per 60, but Buff is at 1.60 this season as a D-man. It's not sustainable though.
Byfuglien's Corsi% is 54.5% and his Goal% is at 63.6% (ie: Jets own 63.6% of goals with him on ice or he has a 2GF : 1GA ratio). That goal% is over inflated and will settle down more towards his Corsi%.


As HFBoards poster gm0ney recently said:

Byfuglien would look a lot better if Pavelec didn't have a 0.000 sv% on Byfuglien's mistakes haha

Ahhhh. So Hutch is inflating those numbers.

 

[Huffer]

Yes only 5v5. Doing all strengths would be pointless as Buff is playing D all the time for PP.

That's what I was hoping for, thanks.

 

[Ducky10]

I sometimes wonder if Buff had never been a forward before, like when he was with Chicago that there would ever be a question regarding where he should play.

If he had been a D from the beginning when he broke in with Chicago and he was never switched to FW would people just look at him as just strictly as he is what he is.

Like does anyone look at Karlsson or Subban and say maybe we should try them at forward because they sometimes have errors when they get burned as a defenseman. No I don't think so, but with Buff people do because he played as a FW before

Hmmm, I recall making that same observation a couple of weeks back and getting roasted.