Byfuglien

[peter sullivan]

I can't believe anyone could be criticizing his play at D. It's like the entire city is watching him in isolation to find mistakes. He is our ONLY impact player. And he is only an impact player as a defenceman. All players make mistakes. His are no more often than anyone else, particularily when you consider he is playing 50% of the game in every single situation.

He is only weak when he's directly in front our own net. His feet get slow. They should work on that. The rest of what he brings is far above the individual impact of every other player. It's no coincidence that our scoring drought ended the second he went back there. He moves the team forward like nobody else. He makes every player on the ice better. He is even a good defenceman on the whole.

I'd be shocked if ever goes back to forward. If it causes issues with the current roster, change the roster to make room.

 

[Bob E]

I still think buff would be p-good on the left side. He rovers anyways.

If you pair Buff with Trouba, with Buff on left side, that just might be fun to watch.

 

[Bob E]

I can't believe anyone could be criticizing his play at D. It's like the entire city is watching him in isolation to find mistakes. He is our ONLY impact player. And he is only an impact player as a defenceman. All players make mistakes. His are no more often than anyone else, particularily when you consider he is playing 50% of the game in every single situation.

He is only weak when he's directly in front our own net. His feet get slow. They should work on that. The rest of what he brings is far above the individual impact of every other player. It's no coincidence that our scoring drought ended the second he went back there. He moves the team forward like nobody else. He makes every player on the ice better. He is even a good defenceman on the whole.

I'd be shocked if ever goes back to forward. If it causes issues with the current roster, change the roster to make room.

To each his own. I don't like how he plays defensively as a dman. I like how he plays offensively as a dman.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Buff gives up less than Trouba or Bogo.

You've presented some compelling stats but based on this year only they are 2 small samples, 1 each at F and at D. I know you have defended that position in the past with larger data sets but I always come away feeling that your stats must be missing something. As Jet and others have pointed out last night's game was a good example of the eye-test that Buff fails and that somehow disappears in the stats that you present.

I am not equipped to debate the stats with you and I will not insist that the eye-test must be right and the stats wrong but I think this is a perfect case of the 2 tests not agreeing. Correct me if I am wrong but I think I remember you saying that when the 2 disagree you need to look for an explanation for the disagreement, not assume that either is right or wrong until the disagreement can be explained.

I'm not sure now but were there not some examples of bad Buff in the previous game as well? Just ones that didn't happen to end up in our net. At any rate, prior to that Buff was playing well defensively since his switch back. Now it looks like some of his old habits are appearing again. Is this all just an illusion? Is he really making no more and no worse mistakes than normal for a top D playing 27 minutes a game? I really don't know. I know I was disappointed in his production playing wing so far. Was he just in a slump like Kane or is he never going to score as much as he does on D (5v5)? What about his affect on the scoring of the rest of the team even when he is not getting points? He can affect that by good passing in the D zone. On F he can affect it by creating space. All the statistics I've seen (pretty much all from you) have shown him to be more effective on D. Yet there are those things we saw last night.

My gut feeling says use him as the hybrid and put him on D when there are injuries but I can't defend that very well. Putting him on D full time creates roster issues but that would simply be something for Chevy to deal with one way or another. Keeping him at F does the same if he does not re-sign.

 

[garret9]

You've presented some compelling stats but based on this year only they are 2 small samples, 1 each at F and at D. I know you have defended that position in the past with larger data sets but I always come away feeling that your stats must be missing something. As Jet and others have pointed out last night's game was a good example of the eye-test that Buff fails and that somehow disappears in the stats that you present.

I am not equipped to debate the stats with you and I will not insist that the eye-test must be right and the stats wrong but I think this is a perfect case of the 2 tests not agreeing. Correct me if I am wrong but I think I remember you saying that when the 2 disagree you need to look for an explanation for the disagreement, not assume that either is right or wrong until the disagreement can be explained.

I'm not sure now but were there not some examples of bad Buff in the previous game as well? Just ones that didn't happen to end up in our net. At any rate, prior to that Buff was playing well defensively since his switch back. Now it looks like some of his old habits are appearing again. Is this all just an illusion? Is he really making no more and no worse mistakes than normal for a top D playing 27 minutes a game? I really don't know. I know I was disappointed in his production playing wing so far. Was he just in a slump like Kane or is he never going to score as much as he does on D (5v5)? What about his affect on the scoring of the rest of the team even when he is not getting points? He can affect that by good passing in the D zone. On F he can affect it by creating space. All the statistics I've seen (pretty much all from you) have shown him to be more effective on D. Yet there are those things we saw last night.

My gut feeling says use him as the hybrid and put him on D when there are injuries but I can't defend that very well. Putting him on D full time creates roster issues but that would simply be something for Chevy to deal with one way or another. Keeping him at F does the same if he does not re-sign.

No I also showed careers as jets too. As I said there is not one stat over multi season sample that puts Bogosian or Trouba ahead of Buff.
Not scoring
Not PP
Not PK
Not shots against in the slot
Not corsi
Not goals
Not shot differentials weighted by shot location
Not zone exits
Not puck possession loses in the defensive zone per puck touch


People get stuck in thinking I'm saying buff doesn't have those faults. That's not it. It is two fold.
1) the numbers can show those issues, like I showed in the shot location data, it's just that he creates FAR FAR FAR more substantially for than against as a defender.
2) even if the numbers miss why some things happens the numbers are the measurement in the results that matter: goals (what has happened) and shots (showing it will persist)

This season Jets have been out scoring their opponents 2:1 with buff on the ice which while unsustainable is extraordinary so I don't even see why anyone cares. Fancy stats say as long as Byfuglien doesn't play in front of someone as bad as Pavelec, the impact will be phenomenal as we are seeing with Hutchinson.

I want a team that wins and outscores their opponents. I most of all want that in the future more so in the past (hence fancystats).
Everything else is just cosmetic.

Honestly, I truly believe it's more cognitive bias than numbers missing things. Just looking at a few low-occurrence high-impact which are being weighed more so than how they actually impact the game overall.

 

[wpgsilver]

Garret, do the stats take into account in any way the quality of the opportunities created when Buff is on the ice for and against.
For instance, take the 2 on 1 goal against last game. We had numerous shots on goal leading up to it, and they only had one shot on goal during the sequence. The difference is that their one shot was a prime scoring chance while ours (for arguments sake) were not.

Though I think Buff is a positive on D (or on O, I think he is one of the most gifted players in the entire league), when he does drop the ball on D it often leads to a grade A chance. Do the stats view every shot equally, so the 2 on 1 goal is viewed the same as a shot from the point?


I'm not sure if I'm totally clear in what I'm asking, but I'm wondering if stats are limited in how they assess chances for and against.

 

[KingBogo]

Theres a lot in the post above mine, so of which I agree with some of which I don't.

I'm not going to respond to the whole thing because frankly I'm lazy. But saying Buff had 0 to do with last nights loss is wrong. I'm not a fan of speaking in absolutes. Does he bear the majority of the responsibility. Perhaps not, thats up for debate. But to say he has no responsibility is false.

Also, using that Bogosian gift isn't very persuasive to me. Yes Bogo made a ridiculously bad play.
That play is not indicative of how a player plays. Bogo has warts, there are many plays you could have pointed. But pointed to a gaffe like that doesn't tell me much.
I think the issue people have with Buff on D (I don't necessarily agree with them always) is that his mistakes are not gaffes. They are not flukes. They are instead evidence of how he actually plays the position.




Also not sure what that means ^^
The issue with Buff there is not necessarily his proximity at the time the puck is shot. Mathematically I mean.

Anyways, like I said I'm lazy and watching football.

I agree it adds nothing to compare Bogo's gaff last season to Buff's play in OT as the are fundamentally 2 different things. Bogo caught his skate on the board, fell and lost control of the puck in spectacular fashion as the puck came right to Perry in front. It was an accident. Buff in OT however, played like a forward on the cycle in the offensive zone. He tried keeping possession without losing momentum to get around the opposing player. This is fine 200 feet from your goal as the risk is worth the potential reward. Behind your own goal it is the opposite the risk is no where near the potential reward. In that case the risk is lost possession and a wide open scoring chance for the opposition. IMO he needed to play like a defensman and protect the puck. That is what defenseman need to do. If Buff would have had a Bogo type fall and they scored it would have been *****, but I wouldn't blame Buff as it would be an accident. Not the wrong play.

 

[PhilJets]

To each his own. I don't like how he plays defensively as a dman. I like how he plays offensively as a dman.

As a defenseman how much Buff plays Defence on a defensive end.
How much does he have the puck on his sticks and creating chances?


can someone put that up?

thanks

 

[KCjetsfan]

this thread is bursting at the seams.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

this thread is bursting at the seams.

A Byfuglien thread that's too large? Imagine.

Continue here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1799521