joshjull
Registered User
If a team in desperate need of a #1 center had a chance to add one in his early twenties with an offersheet. They would be fools not to try.
TSN: Button: Habs' offer sheet to Aho was 'laughable'
- Thread starter Jim Bob
- Start date
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
- 18,671
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When is market rate just 2 firsts (or first round prospects) for a good first line center (Botterill deals aside)?
82Ninety42011
Registered User
It certainly wasn't laughable but I believe there was no doubt Hurricanes were gonna match. Even if offer was 10.5 they would have matched really. They have the room and Aho is trending to a good one. I mean a certain 1st over all player gets paid 11 plus next season and he isn't any better if at all then Aho.
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Edgy
Registered User
- Nov 30, 2009
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His team is already operating at a 3.9 mil loss, his gate sales are 27mil. He has to pay Aho 21, Pay Marleau around 4, a couple of other players around a mil each, his entire team's salary was 62mil, so the 27mil financed half of that, now that's all gone.
So he needs another 27mil to cover the 27mil he lost to buyouts and Signing Bonuses. That's on top of the additional salaries he still has to add for the 7 players he needs to sign, so factor in another 21mil or so unless he plans on filling them with entry level contracts.
So now the math is roughly
58 + (21 (Aho) + 4 (Marleau) + 21 (various players)) = 58 + 46 or 104mil
And instead of a 4mil loss, it'll be closer to 30mil after the buyouts and signing bonuses.
Or he could not sign Aho and save 22mil and keep his expenses at 83mil, 23 of which is covered by his ticket sales, which means he doesn't have to take a loan to pay and have to pay it back.
It becomes a question of whether he wants to spend that 21 on Aho and almost double his expenses year over year for one player and have that player account for 30% of your projected payroll and 90% of your gate sales.
Or he wants to cut his losses and take the compensation/negotiate a better return on a separate deal.
That's what makes this move was so aggressive. It puts him in a really tough financial position and that's why despite all the posturing Dundon has done, he has yet to match the offer.
Calling it laughable is lazy journalism and shows lack of analytical thinking. This was never about the AAV, it was about placing Carolina between a rock and a hard place and making them choose between financial sense and keeping their franchise center.
Lose money now and face the potential of your franchise center walking in 5 years or demanding a massive raise to stay or lose fans and revenue by letting him walk.
So he needs another 27mil to cover the 27mil he lost to buyouts and Signing Bonuses. That's on top of the additional salaries he still has to add for the 7 players he needs to sign, so factor in another 21mil or so unless he plans on filling them with entry level contracts.
So now the math is roughly
58 + (21 (Aho) + 4 (Marleau) + 21 (various players)) = 58 + 46 or 104mil
And instead of a 4mil loss, it'll be closer to 30mil after the buyouts and signing bonuses.
Or he could not sign Aho and save 22mil and keep his expenses at 83mil, 23 of which is covered by his ticket sales, which means he doesn't have to take a loan to pay and have to pay it back.
It becomes a question of whether he wants to spend that 21 on Aho and almost double his expenses year over year for one player and have that player account for 30% of your projected payroll and 90% of your gate sales.
Or he wants to cut his losses and take the compensation/negotiate a better return on a separate deal.
That's what makes this move was so aggressive. It puts him in a really tough financial position and that's why despite all the posturing Dundon has done, he has yet to match the offer.
Calling it laughable is lazy journalism and shows lack of analytical thinking. This was never about the AAV, it was about placing Carolina between a rock and a hard place and making them choose between financial sense and keeping their franchise center.
Lose money now and face the potential of your franchise center walking in 5 years or demanding a massive raise to stay or lose fans and revenue by letting him walk.
If Carolinas management have any bad feeling towards Aho or his agent they could trade him to Ottawa for a big package of quality futures after paying his bonus next year. Aho will help Ottawa reach the cap floor while Carolina would have payed much of his salary.
and
conjunction
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Definition of and
(Entry 1 of 2)
1—used as a function word to indicate connection or addition especially of items within the same class or type —used to join sentence elements of the same grammatical rank or function
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Did you see the part about the overpayment?
Also in what world can you successfully OS a legit 1C for under $10.5M???? It's going to take a lot more $cake$ and another 2 first rounders.
No one wants to suck on purpose!
Baccus
Garage League filled with Mickey Mouse teams
- Feb 18, 2014
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By your math the Canes wouldn't be able to operate in any given year, which is odd considering they continue to operate year to year. The reality is that the first two years of signing bonus + salary, while probably annoying and somewhat costly if the Billionaire owner isn't just fronting it, isn't an untenable amount above his yearly salary which he'd be getting anyway.
Acting like one or two payments, that can be borrowed in the worse case scenario and spread over the two years he'd be making 17 million anyways is some unbelievably high bar to pass is pretty stupid. You understand that this Offer Sheet was made to a team owned by somebody who made his living off predatory loans correct? I think he can handle it.
Baccus
Garage League filled with Mickey Mouse teams
- Feb 18, 2014
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You realize you posted this on the Buffalo Sabres forum? It's still under debate if we're doing it currently, and we literally did it on purpose just a few years ago.
By mentioning 2 first rounds, let alone 4, I'm implying that the bid is too low. They should have gone to the level that Carolina would either financially squirm or start to contemplate the value of the picks. I don't think $10 million is an overpayment in the current climate of the NHL for a player of Aho's talents. I also don't think 4 first rounders is that much of a payment to get a play of Aho's age and ability for 7 years if they went to the level required.
It looks like Montreal made a move to look like they were trying to do something more so than actually succeeding. They get to pump their own tires that "they are willing to do whatever it takes" (even if they didn't) and also put a soft cap on their own pending RFA signings next summer (Domi) and beyond (Kotkaneimi the summer after) with a show of what they are willing to pay for a player of Aho's ability.
Haha! I thought about the irony in what I was saying.
But, one 1C, even the best in the game can't make a team good.
You need depth, especially cheap depth to win cups. Try getting cheap depth after giving up four 1sts.
Four 1sts is a killer. You need good cheap depth to be good. You get your good cheap depth through the draft. Draft well, and you're a perennial contender. Draft poorly, we know how that goes. Don't draft at all, and you're guaranteed to suck.
Edgy
Registered User
- Nov 30, 2009
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You understand that is strictly talking about what the Canes bring in on their own, without the revenue sharing that keeps them afloat? Just because they get a piece of the pie from richer teams like Montreal, Toronto and the Rangers doesn't mean that it makes financial sense to invest heavily and go deeper into debt for 1 player who in all likelihood will pack up and leave in 5 years as an UFA and if Carolina doesn't win the cup before that happens, recouping that investment becomes impossible.
Can Dundon come up with the money? Absolutely. Should he? Debatable. That's the point I was making and why the Habs offer isn't as laughable as some would like to think.
Also, in the future if you want to discuss anything try not throwing insults needlessly in your argument. It only weakens your stance and makes me less interested in continuing the conversation.
Montreal seems to already have a great deal of inexpensive and effective players - Danault, Gallagher, Tatar, Byron and potentially Armia as well as ELC guys like Kotkaniemi. They have a 12 picks in next year's draft, 8 in the 4th round or earlier and a well stocked pipeline of quality prospects already, as well as the clout to be able to compete for UDFA types every spring, both collegiate and European.
But it does seem by their own posturing, that going to the 4 firsts is too much risk for them even with that in place. They were slightly bold in getting him to sign the deal - which at 5 years pops him into UFA status at the age of 26 so he will get a secondary payday out of this. He wins either way.
Ryan Poehling, Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Jesse Ylonen, Jacob Olofsson, Joni Ikonen and Jake Evans is a nice collection of forward talent already. They have Cale Fleury, Josh Brook and Otto Leskinen on D on the farm, plus the rash of guys they drafted in later rounds this year. Cayden Primeau is a quality prospect goalie. They already have a very full pipeline, one of the better ones in the NHL. They have a crap ton of picks for next year. Conventional wisdom may be the blanket comment about needing ELC talent (which they will have) but doesn't necessarily fit with what the Habs already have on hand.
Edit: I forgot Alexander Romanov on defense.
The problem is you need to eventually pay your existing cheap talent, so you need to have more picks in the queue.
Plus if you give a huge contract to an Aho, it makes it harder to pay for the depth you want to keep.
And the goalposts move...
They have a lot of prospects who will come in on ELC's and potentially get bridged. They already have existing value contracts who likely one day will need to be moved, but in the next few years are quality contributors. When they get moved, it is likely that they will be deals like they just made with the Hawks, where they recouped multiple picks... which in turn will lead to more ELC and bridge talent. Unlike Buffalo, they seem to be able to find players outside of the top half of the first round of the draft.
So to recap: they have a deep prospect pool already with which to feed their team or be used in trade. They have a crap-ton of picks next year and even an extra third the year following. They have value guys right now, and they have an ELC guy right now. They don't have to have 1st round picks in the future to augment their cap structure.
You're perplexed why no one is making successful OS's. It would have likely taken $12+mill, four 1st rounders, and a serious front load to get the deal done... all for Aho. That's a good deal?!?!?!
joshjull
Registered User
What difference does it make if you are paying a guy 10 or 12mil per year via offer sheet vs free agency or an extension? It doesn’t remotely matter how they got that cap hit. If a GM can’t fill out of lineup because one guy makes that much then they’re not very good at their job.
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Baccus
Garage League filled with Mickey Mouse teams
- Feb 18, 2014
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You realize it's not strictly about what the Canes bring in one their own outside of you setting made-up parameters on their operating revenue and that talking about what the Canes bring in (debatable numbers since you don't see the books and are pulling back of the napkin numbers I'm assuming from Forbes) without including revenue sharing is completely irrelevant because a) Revenue Sharing exists, 2) Revenue Sharing will continue to exist and iii) The NHL doesn't care about richer teams feeling bad about funding poorer teams through Revenue Sharing because that's literally what it exists for.
Your argument consists of numbers you want to believe are true but you aren't sure about, subtracting numbers you know to be true but don't want to exist in revenue sharing, while ignore the many realities of why and how Professional Sport Franchises exist and maintain increasing value despite what seems to often be minimal yearly profit in their own daily business.
The yearly balance sheet did not appear to be the point you were trying to make. I personally have posted commenting that one of the harshest parts of the Offer Sheet isn't the AAV or signing bonuses, but that it walks Aho to UFA, but that's a double edged sword as it would do the same for the Habs, and nobody knows where or for whom Aho would want to play in 5 years, so it's irrelevant outside of the leverage the Canes would have currently held in trying to pursue a longer term deal.
You also conveniently ignore that the Canes were reported to have already offered Aho a longer term deal at a 7.5 AAV, so 8.5 is hardly so massive bump in yearly cost, just in the value over term.
If the entirety of your argument is about the term 'laughable' I'd actually give you more credit since it's an overly harsh description of the offer sheet compared to say 'unlikely to succeed', but you made it about the signing bonus, a roundabout and inaccurate view of the Canes financials, and now lastly some sort of financial/moralist version of 'should' Dundon come up with the money. It's not debatable if he should match in any sense outside of some oddball financial version that ignores finances you want to ignore. These aren't mom & pop grocery store operations, despite how often they give that impression.
The premise that the Canes can't/shouldn't match simply because of the front loaded outlay of cash, and some fantasy that Revenue Sharing shouldn't count is completely silly and calling it stupid as I did is hardly insulting and doesn't weaken anything. The fault lays in your attempt to pick and choose which things count for your argument.
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Der Jaeger
Generational EBUG
That offer sheet was Aho le other level of laughable.
I'll see myself out now.
I'll see myself out now.
JThorne
Stop accepting failure
People whine and complain about OS's never happening. Then one happens after 6 years FINALLY, and people STILL complain. Bergevin deserves some credit for actually trying something. If it was such an easy match as the Hurricanes say, why didn't they offer it to Aho? It's clear he would have signed it. They were being cheap, got called on it, so now they're saving face. Button is a Buffoon. There's a reason he, like Pierre McGuire, never had much of an NHL management career. They're both blowhards living off of a short lived NHL job. It's easy for them to point fingers when they're hiding(or, being forced to hide) behind desks in the media. They don't know shit. Hell, I don't know shit and I know more than them. (Don't give me that trivia BS Pierre spews as being knowledge. This isn't NHL Jeopardy)
Push Dr Tracksuit
Gerstmann 3:16
- Jun 9, 2012
- 13,239
- 3,316
Their function in the cba is exactly that but they need other managers to trigger it. Which probably explains why they’re so rare.
OS are almost completely useless because they’re intended use can’t be triggered by the player and they’re side use requires overpaying in cap space/real dollars and giving up assets.
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