The Athletic Buffalo Sabres 2022-23 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

[Ace]

What did his model predict last year?

 

[Weltschmerz]

What did his model predict last year?

All time worst

 

[Ace]

All time worst

Well there’s your answer then. 2/3 of what this years model is including is the projection to be the worst team of all time. Can’t overcome that.

Model should have a Krueger remover.

 

[Panthaz89]

Sabres have to earn the leagues respect. They have not yet

There has been spurts in the last ten years where the team looked like it was on the rise
And they were not

Other teams playing backup goalie vs Sabres a lot last year. Big difference between primary goalie and backup

The Sabres were playing their 3-5 goalies half the year and murdered the Laughs h2h in spite of the Sabres only loss being a 4-5 gauntled spearheaded by the mighty Aaron Dell so the backup goalie argument can suck it.

 

[paulmm3]

Part of the problem we face is how good the Atlantic division is. We play Tampa, Toronto, Florida, and Boston 8 times each next year. That's 32 of 82 games of our season. Almost 1/3rd of our whole season is our 24 games against Tampa, Toronto, and Florida alone.

 

[K8fool]

I want every publication to say we suck. .. we're never going to be good . The giraffe w shite the bed . Middlpuke will be out for months and our goalie's have contagious Alzheimer's .. awesome.. thank them too.. look at the bills and josh talking up Jalen what's his name. Secretly I'm Happy to finally watch vicious physical hockey that is beautiful like the Russian 5 ( moving in those directions at least)

 

[K8fool]

Part of the problem we face is how good the Atlantic division is. We play Tampa, Toronto, Florida, and Boston 8 times each next year. That's 32 of 82 games of our season. Almost 1/3rd of our whole season is our 24 games against Tampa, Toronto, and Florida alone.

The four line game Donny finally has the talent to play and the D to make it possible is designed to beat those teams.(and depth we'll see next two weeks) . We'll see..

On a side note if teams match our stamina and speed we'll need goaltending. Another we'll see..

Should be fun finding out what the team is made of and if they can play fast and rough for 70 games. ..and win half of 12 when they are full of themselves.

 

[Fezzy126]

Dom's model has us 29th. It would seem that he's too heavily weighting previous years results over development and age performance curves.

I'm not predicting a magical run to the playoffs or anything, but I would be surprised if we finished below:
- Anaheim
- San Jose
- Seattle
- Philadelphia
- Devils

I fully expect us to compete with teams like Detroit, Ottawa, Columbus, Islanders in our conference. Where we land will largely depend on the usual unknowns - goaltending, injuries, luck...

 

[Chainshot]

Part of the problem we face is how good the Atlantic division is. We play Tampa, Toronto, Florida, and Boston 8 times each next year. That's 32 of 82 games of our season. Almost 1/3rd of our whole season is our 24 games against Tampa, Toronto, and Florida alone.

They don't play those teams 8 times, only 4 times each.

 

[paulmm3]

They don't play those teams 8 times, only 4 times each.

Weird, one way of phrasing the question on Google led to one result and another way to another result. That did seem like a lot of games when I was doing the percentages but I was definitely wrong in my initial post. Makes me feel better about our chances.

 

[Chainshot]

Weird, one way of phrasing the question on Google led to one result and another way to another result. That did seem like a lot of games when I was doing the percentages but I was definitely wrong in my initial post. Makes me feel better about our chances.

They used to play the divisional opponents 8 times each. Then it got reduced to 6 and then to 4, so you may have gotten info that was valid from older seasons when you did your searching. Here is their full schedule for this year - Buffalo Sabres Schedule

 

[debaser66]

this is an example were data without the right interpretation means nothing

 

[Tsyolin]

It's so bizarre because most if not all the things said in the actual article are pretty correct, but the point projection is just so off. My biggest issue with this model is that when you have to explain the caveats as to why something might seem off, it's probably not a good model. A good model wouldn't have caveats that lead to a massive deviation from general expectation.

I've stuck to 85 points as my prediction assuming no injury or goalie fiasco and I really don't think that's unreasonable.

 

[Strexvale]

They don't play those teams 8 times, only 4 times each.

On top of that, they only play Toronto and Montreal 3 times this year for some reason.

 

[Chainshot]

On top of that, they only play Toronto and Montreal 3 times this year for some reason.

Leafs probably want very little to do with Buffalo, given historical won-loss records.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Leafs probably want very little to do with Buffalo, given historical won-loss records.

Probably trying to avoid more retaliation suspensions for their superstars.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

My expectation is range from same record to last playoff team. My best guess is 10 less wins than last playoff team.
Questions
1) goalies
2) team defence
3) talent progression specifically
Does casey breakout
Does Tage progress
Does cozens progress
How do the rookies do ( counting jj, Quinn and Krebs here)
Does skinner repeat?
Do power and dahlin continue to progress
Does the injury bug stay away?

Too many questions I think to believe realistically in playoffs

 

[Bendium]

It is hard to argue that Buffalo will not be better this year. There is no position that is being replaced by a lesser player. Most changes are at least even or upgrades. Additionally, 3/4 of the roster is still in growth and development phases, so you can expect improvement from them. Just based on that alone I think you could argue 5 more wins is not unrealistic.

The real key here to me is goaltending. If the analytics department is right, and Eric Comrie is at that point in his career where he is ready to take that step into legit NHL goaltender (did not say #1 or top tier, just legit starter), then that is worth a few wins as well. Andersen was good last year when he did not have to play more than once a week. If UPL takes another step he should get 15-25 NHL games? Goaltending is the wildcard, and their plan has a better chance of success this year than the one last year.

So, in short.

Player quality improvement = +10 pts.
Goaltending improvement = +8 pts.

Last year 75 pts + 18 = 93 pts. Thats the area I am expecting.

 

[Jim Bob]

Buffalo Sabres Training Camp Vibes: The Music

One song for each player expected at training camp.

www.diebytheblade.com

This might be less controversial.

 

[Matt Ress]

It is hard to argue that Buffalo will not be better this year. There is no position that is being replaced by a lesser player. Most changes are at least even or upgrades. Additionally, 3/4 of the roster is still in growth and development phases, so you can expect improvement from them. Just based on that alone I think you could argue 5 more wins is not unrealistic.

The real key here to me is goaltending. If the analytics department is right, and Eric Comrie is at that point in his career where he is ready to take that step into legit NHL goaltender (did not say #1 or top tier, just legit starter), then that is worth a few wins as well. Andersen was good last year when he did not have to play more than once a week. If UPL takes another step he should get 15-25 NHL games? Goaltending is the wildcard, and their plan has a better chance of success this year than the one last year.

So, in short.

Player quality improvement = +10 pts.
Goaltending improvement = +8 pts.

Last year 75 pts + 18 = 93 pts. Thats the area I am expecting.

I second that emotion.

I think we're unlikely to see regression at critical points because there's not a lot of real reason for it and most likely to see progression from at least some of the several players that are poised to move forward.

Bendium fleshed it out well and maybe we see Skinner fall a bit or Tage not score quite as many goals but there's also just as much reason to believe that they could both take additional steps forward.

 

[K8fool]

They don't play those teams 8 times, only 4 times each.

Yep.. yr both right that they are the teams that we must split or win three of four to be relevant again.

 

[K8fool]

It is hard to argue that Buffalo will not be better this year. There is no position that is being replaced by a lesser player. Most changes are at least even or upgrades. Additionally, 3/4 of the roster is still in growth and development phases, so you can expect improvement from them. Just based on that alone I think you could argue 5 more wins is not unrealistic.

The real key here to me is goaltending. If the analytics department is right, and Eric Comrie is at that point in his career where he is ready to take that step into legit NHL goaltender (did not say #1 or top tier, just legit starter), then that is worth a few wins as well. Andersen was good last year when he did not have to play more than once a week. If UPL takes another step he should get 15-25 NHL games? Goaltending is the wildcard, and their plan has a better chance of success this year than the one last year.

So, in short.

Player quality improvement = +10 pts.
Goaltending improvement = +8 pts.

Last year 75 pts + 18 = 93 pts. Thats the area I am expecting.

I'm happy that comrie. Cares and will live or die w each outing.. If the game slows w good D, and he shakes of mistakes w calm confidence..(anderson will help) .. Great for Us . Big if ... Highly possible... Good bet over 60%

 

[K8fool]

I second that emotion.

I think we're unlikely to see regression at critical points because there's not a lot of real reason for it and most likely to see progression from at least some of the several players that are poised to move forward.

Bendium fleshed it out well and maybe we see Skinner fall a bit or Tage not score quite as many goals but there's also just as much reason to believe that they could both take additional steps forward.

Yep.. that's why i like the bad predictions , you all suck, I dare you to prove it rasmus and you farkin kids, you haven't won shite ..yr not close to Cale etc .. w a wink and a wry smile..

 

[Dingo44]

Buffalo Sabres Training Camp Vibes: The Music

One song for each player expected at training camp.

www.diebytheblade.com

This might be less controversial.

Can't agree with all of them but the inclusion of "Long Promised Road" on the Beach Boys' criminally underrated Surf's Up album for Rasmus Asplund was definitely inspired.

 

[Ace]

this is an example were data without the right interpretation means nothing

Actually last years model spitting out a result so wrong is an example of that. Using it again, acknowledging its failure and the many reasons why, is just lazy work. When a model fails…you tweak the model.

Essent he’s saying…here’s my model that can predict what the average of your teams last three years can do against the average of every other teams last three years. Which is fine if the article was “predictions of the 2020-2022 NHL aggregate”. But it’s called 2022-23 predictions…and admits it can’t account for player development, system change…or really anything relevant to 2022-23. So again…why use the model? Lazy.