The Athletic Buffalo Sabres 2022-23 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

[Jim Bob]

Buffalo Sabres 2022-23 season preview

For the first time in a long time, there are legitimate reasons for optimism in Buffalo even if they don't make a real playoff push.

theathletic.com

The projection​

If we’re going off vibes, there are few teams that were stronger than Buffalo last year. The Sabres were excruciatingly bad in 2021 going into the 2021-22 season with very little hope, but they somehow managed a small turnaround, earning 75 points and being a whole lot of fun along the way. Though there is still a lot of work left to be done, things are starting to look up again in Buffalo.

Still, the 2022-23 season is expected to be a trying one with the team’s most likely point total being somewhere in the same ballpark as last season. The Sabres have a 55 percent chance of improving on last season’s point total, but any improvement is likely to be modest at best. For now, baby steps are the goal and even an 80-point season would be welcome progress after a decade of turmoil. Buffalo has a 36 percent chance of reaching that mark or higher. That’s not a bad shot and would represent a solid stepping stone for the team’s rebuild.

In order for this rebuild to work though, another year of being really bad is probably the best course of action – and Buffalo seems well-poised to be just that. Given the depth of this year’s draft, being a bottom-five team is much more appealing.

The Atlantic is full of juggernaut teams, followed by a few teams on the rise. It’s uber-competitive and Buffalo isn’t ready for that yet. Rushing into things is exactly how the Sabres ended up here in a rebuild redux. It sucks, but patience is the key. The Sabres have a roster that demands it, one that looks like it will finish in the neighbourhood of 70-to-80 points this season.

Good vibes can only take a team so far and while the Sabres looked like they had plenty to build off of last season, development isn’t linear. Another season in the league’s basement would be good for the long run. It’s not Buffalo’s destiny, but it is the team’s most likely landing spot next season.

I am guessing the fanbase is more optimistic for this season than The Athletic team is.

The bottom line​

Good as the Sabres were down the stretch — and welcome a sight as it was for the fanbase and hockey fans with a sense of justice — expecting them to carry a 102-point pace over a full season would be pure madness. The good news? It’d be nearly as silly to expect a full-blown backslide. There are legitimate reasons for optimism, and even if only some of them are borne out in full, it’d represent a major step forward.

The Sabres can make that step — and keep feeling positive about the future — even if they don’t make any kind of real playoff push. In fact, the Sabres can make that step even if, based on point total, they’re still pretty bad. This season is about growth from a handful of key, young players like Cozens and Power, and repeat performances from guys like Thompson, Tuch and Dahlin, even though they may well have more to give. There’s reason for optimism in Buffalo, and it doesn’t need to be fully couched. That, for now, should be good enough.

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[sabremike]

I am actually paying money for this "content" that is textbook "hockey is a math problem" fancystats blind spot. One of the people in the comments already pointed out the gigantic flaw of not factoring in Wretched Ralph over the last 3 seasons and how badly he messed everyone in the entire organization. Anyone who thinks we are with the Habs and Yotes in the league basement is a complete lunatic.

 

[Matt Ress]

It's been far too long. We won't get any respect until we earn it.

 

[Dingo44]

They are rating the Sabres worse than the Flyers and the Blackhawks so that says enough about Dom and his predictions. I take the stuff he spits out of his graphing calculator with a grain of salt.

He also mentioned in his article about the Coyotes is that their point total next season is the worst one they've ever predicted since their prediction for the Sabres last year who they picked to be record-setting bad (which was way off). And their numbers carry over from the last three years so their predictions are still being dragged down by Krueger and other factors that no longer should count. But Dom is too stubborn to adjust so there you go. I guess I look forward to another year of snarky remarks from Dom and Gentile which really add nothing but seem to make those two giggle back and forth with each other.

 

[Dingo44]

I mean, look at this mess - based on the LAST THREE YEARS

 

[Fjordy]

This is some nonsense, maybe they didn't follow the Sabres last season. Also I do not agree that another season in the basement will be useful, what? Get another peak in the top 10 or top 5? What for? Adams can draft great players no matter where that pick is, and our pool of prospects is already great.

 

[Dirty Dog]

It's been far too long. We won't get any respect until we earn it.

THIS! I mean who cares and who can blame anyone for thinking this team will be bad…

I am optimistic and disagree (playoffs baby!), but it is what it is

 

[Jacob582]

It was the same way coming out of the lockout. The season before the Sabres had 85 points and were out of the playoffs. They traded for Grier towards the end and were looking good.

However, most of the media were projecting Buffalo to be out of the playoffs. I'm thinking this team is looking good on paper heading into 2005-2006; watch out!

 

[TehDoak]

It was the same way coming out of the lockout. The season before the Sabres had 85 points and were out of the playoffs. They traded for Grier towards the end and were looking good.

However, most of the media were projecting Buffalo to be out of the playoffs. I'm thinking this team is looking good on paper heading into 2005-2006; watch out!

I'm not sure why people are still reaching back to 2005-06 team for comparisons here. The reasons for people being pessimistic that year is that they lost Zhitnik and Satan to UFA. Buffalo's breakout was a bit of a lightning in a bottle confluence of an emerging team combined with two strong rookie classes and rule changes that gave advantages to speed over size. To line up all those circumstances again would be nearly impossible.

It's fine to be optimistic about the team, and hopefully we'll find some improvements and have a good year. It's not going to be at the 05-06 Sabres breakout level.

 

[Chainshot]

Rub his nose in it, just like they did by not being the worst team of all time as per last year's predictions.

 

[Chainshot]

Also, I've thought they can improve (I think 89 points) and STILL be drafting in the 7-8 range of this draft.

 

[Zman5778]

I am actually paying money for this "content" that is textbook "hockey is a math problem" fancystats blind spot. One of the people in the comments already pointed out the gigantic flaw of not factoring in Wretched Ralph over the last 3 seasons and how badly he messed everyone in the entire organization. Anyone who thinks we are with the Habs and Yotes in the league basement is a complete lunatic.

It's one model.....and his model has been notably sketchy often. I actually like The Athletic and don't regret spending money for it. There's PLENTY of good, solid content in there.

Dom's models? I look at them, say "LOLMEH" and move on.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

Sabres have to earn the leagues respect. They have not yet

There has been spurts in the last ten years where the team looked like it was on the rise
And they were not

Other teams playing backup goalie vs Sabres a lot last year. Big difference between primary goalie and backup

 

[Chainshot]

It's one model.....and his model has been notably sketchy often. I actually like The Athletic and don't regret spending money for it. There's PLENTY of good, solid content in there.

Dom's models? I look at them, say "LOLMEH" and move on.

Dom is worth the laugh also from how he deals with people who don't like his models both those who approach it from an illogical sense (YOUZ DONTZ LIKE MY TEAMS! RAAAGE!!) and those who punch holes in his models (witness not being able to weigh Kruegeritis into his predictions or going back three years on a team that has only half a dozen players still on it from that long ago).

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

Me, after reading that article:

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Other teams playing backup goalie vs Sabres a lot last year. Big difference between primary goalie and backup

I'd argue they played more starters than back-ups, though a lot of the teams they played didn't even have definitive starters either or had injury issues causing them to play whoever was available.

Canucks - Demko both times
Jets - Helly both times
Flames - Markstrom both times
Preds - Saros both times
Florida - Bob 2 times (chased him once) Knight 2 times
Kings - Quick and Cal 1 each
Pens - Jarry 3 times, DeSmith 1 time
Avs - Kuemper both times

Boston, Islanders, Caps, Blues - Who was the actual starter?

Habs, Knights, Hawks, Ottawa, Leafs, Flyers, Wings, Jackets, Yotes etc - Does it even matter? they played who was healthy half the time

The only 3 teams I'd say played their back-ups mainly were Carolina, Tampa and NY
Carolina only played Anderson once and Buffalo won that game, Raanta had 2 starts.
Rangers only started Georgiev
Tampa started Elliot twice and Vasi once

 

[Faceboner]

Best case scenario besides the cup is finish just out of a wild card spot and win the lottery or draft a top pairing potential RHD other than that this team just needs experience

 

[Sansbacon]

Best case scenario besides the cup is finish just out of a wild card spot and win the lottery or draft a top pairing potential RHD other than that this team just needs experience

If they’re anywhere near a wild card spot in the final games of the season, I want playoffs.

 

[BuffaloGooner]

Dom and Bader give analytical study a bad name

 

[sabremike]

Here is video of fans rushing to shit all over Dom in the comments:

 

[Team Cozens]

Sabres will make the playoffs with 92 points. Book it.

 

[Zman5778]

Sabres will make the playoffs with 92 points. Book it.

I can see a scenario in which the Sabres have 92 points.

I do not see a scenario where 92 points makes the playoffs in the East this year.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

So everyone complaining about this model had Thompson down for a 35 goal 2021 right? Cause it seems to me like the prevailing wisdom was that he was a bust.

And if Thompson doesn't explode for 35 goals, last year's Sabres would have been an awful team.

I can see a scenario in which the Sabres have 92 points.

I do not see a scenario where 92 points makes the playoffs in the East this year.

Exactly.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Premium content!

 

[sabremike]

So everyone complaining about this model had Thompson down for a 35 goal 2021 right?