The Athletic Buffalo Sabres 2022-23 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

[TheMistyStranger]

Buffalo Sabres Training Camp Vibes: The Music

One song for each player expected at training camp.

www.diebytheblade.com

This might be less controversial.

I have a big issue with Girg's song. Completely ridiculous selection. /s

 

[Diaspora]

Actually last years model spitting out a result so wrong is an example of that. Using it again, acknowledging its failure and the many reasons why, is just lazy work. When a model fails…you tweak the model.

Essent he’s saying…here’s my model that can predict what the average of your teams last three years can do against the average of every other teams last three years. Which is fine if the article was “predictions of the 2020-2022 NHL aggregate”. But it’s called 2022-23 predictions…and admits it can’t account for player development, system change…or really anything relevant to 2022-23. So again…why use the model? Lazy.

His model is a toy -- a little spinney thing built out of numbers and observations *meant for entertainment*. And that's just fine.

Good teams are made of good players, and good players are consistently good over time. You take into account when they get older. That's all his model says -- nothing more to argue about.

Nothing about coaching, nothing about management, nothing about character or chemistry. In most cases, the impact of those factors is marginal anyway.

Anyone who endows the model with more meaning than any random intricate little whizbang is doing himself a disservice.

 

[Matt Ress]

I have a big issue with Girg's song. Completely ridiculous selection. /s

I had no idea that was a song. Now I suppose I have to listen to it.

E: ok is that his goal song?

 

[brian_griffin]

Serious comments first:
I'm not an Athletic subscriber. Curious how these are formatted. i.e., are all 32 teams' predictions released en masse, or are a few teams / one division announced at a time? Regardless of model imperfections, or ignoring common sense, etc., the true cojones (if I used the French en masse, should I have used testicules?) would be to declare which playoff team(s) from last year won't make it this season, and focus more critically on why.

Now, on to the frivolities...

Well there’s your answer then. 2/3 of what this years model is including is the projection to be the worst team of all time. Can’t overcome that.

Model should have a Krueger remover.

Krueger remover? My go-to book for stubborn stains says to rub a meatball on it... and presto!!!

Part of the problem we face is how good the Atlantic division is. We play Tampa, Toronto, Florida, and Boston 8 times each next year. That's 32 of 82 games of our season. Almost 1/3rd of our whole season is our 24 games against Tampa, Toronto, and Florida alone.

For a moment I thought I was in a time-warp...

Leafs probably want very little to do with Buffalo, given historical won-loss records.

Agreed, regular season too risky.
I'm thinking MLSE would clearly prefer to lose to BUF in the 2023 playoffs. Here's a primer for them.


A nice nostalgia watch. Some observations:
1. Meet the new (2022) Leafs defense, same as the old (1999) defense.
2. Although, on the second goal, you can't blame Dave Andreychuk for sticking with the back-door Sabre instead of moving toward Rob "Rocket Richard" Ray in the slot.
3. Satan smartly shooting to CuJo's* left to force any chance of rebound to Sanderson. I know that's taught from a young age, but I wish the Sabres did that more regularly the past few seasons on the rare on-the-rush attempts they had.
*I always liked CuJo (and Felix Potvin).

If you're a little younger, or prefer your Leaf collapses late and hard...

 

[sabremike]

If you think about it Dom is the Larry Brooks of fancystats.

 

[Gras]

I had no idea that was a song. Now I suppose I have to listen to it.

E: ok is that his goal song?

They recorded it the year he went to the ASG

 

[Djp]

I'm not sure why people are still reaching back to 2005-06 team for comparisons here. The reasons for people being pessimistic that year is that they lost Zhitnik and Satan to UFA. Buffalo's breakout was a bit of a lightning in a bottle confluence of an emerging team combined with two strong rookie classes and rule changes that gave advantages to speed over size. To line up all those circumstances again would be nearly impossible.

It's fine to be optimistic about the team, and hopefully we'll find some improvements and have a good year. It's not going to be at the 05-06 Sabres breakout level.

No

they finished the season before (03/04) on a similar streak they did last year finishing at a 100 point paceover theend of the season odf 25+ games.

they lost some players and gained younger ones from the farm in Roy, pommers, vanek, Miller

this season has a similar feel.

 

[Djp]

I can see a scenario in which the Sabres have 92 points.

I do not see a scenario where 92 points makes the playoffs in the East this year.

if you have a bunch of bubble teamsfighting for the final 2-3 playoff spots you usually get the playoff line drop to the 88-92 range.

if you get big separating like last year then the line is higher Until all teams clinch.

last year you had 6 teams battling for the 2 WCs and a division #3 spot. As a result you had a lower playoff line.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

Another factor to consider, which I realize could have zero effect, but then again, this is Buffalo....

With the excitement that the Bills are bringing to WNY right now, and hopefully through the season, it's not far-fetched to think it will carry over to the Sabres. If there is a positive vibe throughout the area, it'll have a positive effect on the young Sabres.