Speculation: Buffalo in need of a Legit #1 Goalie

[CaseyMitts37]

 

[AustonsNostrils]

So he doesn't hold a candle to what Tim Murray has accomplished, got it.

He's 29 years old, he's a prodigy. Tim Murray was 50 when he became a GM.

I'm not throwing TM under the bus, I'm saying by the end of next season he'll have enough of a history as our GM to make a decision on his future as our GM.

 

[Aladyyn]

He's 29 years old, he's a prodigy. Tim Murray was 50 when he became a GM.

I'm not throwing TM under the bus, I'm saying by the end of next season he'll have enough of a history as our GM to make a decision on his future as our GM.

Literally meaningless. No wait, less than that.

 

[sabrebuild]

Tying up space is AVERAGE goaltending is bad GMing.

A top 5 goalie elite goalie is typically worth the contract.

The problem is sorting the Lundqvist/Schneider/Price from the Bobrovsky/Lehtonen/Howard (goalies on bad long term deals)

I actually don't mind spending dollars on goalies, its the term I would avoid, especially any that takes them past the age of 32 or so.

If let's say we could get Ben Bishop for a 1st+ Lehner he'd do a 3 year, 20M deal....I'd probably be fine with that.

If that Bishop deal was a possibility I would personally break the fax machine.

Honestly that is a horrific idea.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Holy **** trading a first for the right to sign Ben Bishop to basically the Ryan Miller contract is aggressively bad asset management.

If Lehner sucks and Bishop's throwing a tantrum for starting time and torpedoes his value, maybe.

For fun, because I've felt out this concept for a while but have never put it to paper, Struck's Rules of goaltending:

1) Goaltending evaluation is a combination of peak performance, in-game stamina, and in-season stamina. I fold mental toughness into both staminas.

2) The league values players who put together consistent, high level regular season performances.

3) The playoffs value whoever peaks the highest.

4) Tons of goaltenders are capable of basically-indistinguishable performances behind elite teams.

5) While it's ideal to consistently have a goaltending corps of say, Talbot, Neuvirth and Ullmark in perpetuity, the strain of constant goaltender churn on teams/GMs/coaches/ (because if you miss, it could get ****in ugly for 30-50 games) is significant.

6) Therefore, if you must spend on goaltending, it should be on someone: capable of providing 55-62 solid starts, slightly undervalued because of pedigree or more pedestrian regular season numbers, and capable of peaking as high as anybody in the playoffs.

7) You should not invest a top 5AAV into a goaltender.

 

[Cirris]

Lehner is a legit #1 goalie

I want to give Lehner another season to prove his worth. His ankle issues were a big blow. While it is fair to question Lehner's durability. To judge him for the ill-timed injury is kind of harsh. For the the games he did play last year, while still in some amount of pain, he was pretty damn good.

I know the fact that he was pulled from team Sweden is a bit unnerving. But coming off surgery if he isn't 110% for a preseason tournament. I'm glad he's not doing it. It'll give him another few weeks to rehab and prep for regular season.

It's not like he was going to get a lot of playing time on Sweden anyways. Lundqvist was always going to be the main starter.

So in the end, let Steve Dangle get excited for his new leaf backup to get to open the doors at the end of the bench, or sit in the press box.

 

[TehDoak]

Rangers took years to realize that their team sucked and King was masking it. Habs haven't realized it yet. Devils can't/don't want to realize.

Tampa and Pittsburgh are shopping Bishop/Fleury for a good reason. And as much as I like Bishop, he's so not worth that much money.

Before Staal/Girardi fell off the map they actually had a pretty good team. Not a contender, but a consistent playoff team. Lundqvist helped sure.

As for Fluery, he's actually been quite good the past few years. The only reason why they would trade him is because they will have to give Matt Murray a large extension next summer.

If that Bishop deal was a possibility I would personally break the fax machine.

Honestly that is a horrific idea.

Holy **** trading a first for the right to sign Ben Bishop to basically the Ryan Miller contract is aggressively bad asset management.

If Lehner sucks and Bishop's throwing a tantrum for starting time and torpedoes his value, maybe.

For fun, because I've felt out this concept for a while but have never put it to paper, Struck's Rules of goaltending:

1) Goaltending evaluation is a combination of peak performance, in-game stamina, and in-season stamina. I fold mental toughness into both staminas.

2) The league values players who put together consistent, high level regular season performances.

3) The playoffs value whoever peaks the highest.

4) Tons of goaltenders are capable of basically-indistinguishable performances behind elite teams.

5) While it's ideal to consistently have a goaltending corps of say, Talbot, Neuvirth and Ullmark in perpetuity, the strain of constant goaltender churn on teams/GMs/coaches/ (because if you miss, it could get ****in ugly for 30-50 games) is significant.

6) Therefore, if you must spend on goaltending, it should be on someone: capable of providing 55-62 solid starts, slightly undervalued because of pedigree or more pedestrian regular season numbers, and capable of peaking as high as anybody in the playoffs.

7) You should not invest a top 5AAV into a goaltender.

If Lehner is injured we have Andres Nilsson as our starting goalie. Who is a NHL career 59 GP, .900 SP, and a 3.09 GAA. All of which are decidedly in the "awful" category. If Lehner is playing strongly and plays 60+ games this year do I trade for Bishop? Absolutely not. If Lehner is injured 3 games into the season? It's a serious consideration.

As much as people here lining up against the idea of spending money on a goalie...the 26 top goalies in the league make more than 4M. 9 make more than 6M.

That means, to get an "average" starting goalie in this league....you likely are spending 5M-ish. To go from a top 26 goalie to a top 10 goalie, salary wise, you have to spend between 1-2M extra.

 

[TehDoak]

Lehner is a legit #1 goalie

By what measure?

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/5283/robin-lehner
107GP 35W 45L 18OTL 2.80 GAA .916 SP 3 SO

Looks pretty "average" to me. If not slightly below average for a starter.

Now, does Lehner have the tools to be a #1? Sure. Will he commit to getting into shape and the conditioning level needed to be a starting goalie in the NHL? remains to be seen.

 

[dotcommunism]

If Lehner is injured we have Andres Nilsson as our starting goalie.

No. If Lehner is injured we have any of a dozen or so goalies who can be picked up for relatively cheap during the season. There are more goalies than goaltending jobs.

 

[TehDoak]

No. If Lehner is injured we have any of a dozen or so goalies who can be picked up for relatively cheap during the season. There are more goalies than goaltending jobs.

Going to need the names of these magic "starter quality" goalies who will magically appear for cheap.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Lehner is a shockingly good goalie when he's healthy. Ride or die.

Why because you want him to be? He has done nothing but been comparingly average when healthy. We got the same type of play and skill with Enroth and Neuvirth the last few years and no one thinks they can lead a team to the championships.

 

[Jim Bob]

Murray expects Lehner to be a "legit #1 goalie".

Hopefully Lehner proves Murray correct this year.

If not, it will be interesting to see what happens when Lehner hits RFA next summer.

 

[TehDoak]

When we acquired Chad Johnson most considered him the worst backup goalie in the NHL.
By the end of last season everyone had forgotten that and thought him quite a good backup.

It's like throwing darts, and all you have to do is hit the board.

This marginalizes the position so much. People act as if we can just pick a random AHL goalie, put him in, and we'd be fine.

There are two ways to get a "cheap" goalie.

1) Draft one
2) Sign a 27-30 year old goalie who has yet to establish himself
3) Pay a premium for a young goalie stuck behind an established starter

And even then...they aren't really all that cheap.

Now, will, right now, "average" goaltending be adequate for us? Sure. But, you only have to see the Islanders team in 2013/14 to know the perils of NOT having at minimum average goaltending. Lots of people have talked about how easy it is go out and get an average goalie for super duper cheap. I'd like to see a list of names of goalies who will be available for no more than a 3rd round pick, on demand.

 

[Mattilaus]

This marginalizes the position so much. People act as if we can just pick a random AHL goalie, put him in, and we'd be fine.

There are two ways to get a "cheap" goalie.

1) Draft one
2) Sign a 27-30 year old goalie who has yet to establish himself
3) Pay a premium for a young goalie stuck behind an established starter

And even then...they aren't really all that cheap.

Now, will, right now, "average" goaltending be adequate for us? Sure. But, you only have to see the Islanders team in 2013/14 to know the perils of NOT having at minimum average goaltending. Lots of people have talked about how easy it is go out and get an average goalie for super duper cheap. I'd like to see a list of names of goalies who will be available for no more than a 3rd round pick, on demand.

My math might be off....but that appears to not be two.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

By what measure?

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/5283/robin-lehner
107GP 35W 45L 18OTL 2.80 GAA .916 SP 3 SO

Looks pretty "average" to me. If not slightly below average for a starter.

Now, does Lehner have the tools to be a #1? Sure. Will he commit to getting into shape and the conditioning level needed to be a starting goalie in the NHL? remains to be seen.

Looking like an average starter at 25 is actually very good

If you look at 5v5 Save % before a goalie turns 25, Lehner is right in the mix
T-1. Tuukka Rask .931
T-1. Braden Holtby .931
T-1. Jaroslav Halak .931
T-4. Petr Mrazek .929
T-4. Sergei Bobrovsky .929
6. Cory Schneider .926
7. Carey Price .925
8. Semyon Varlamov .925
T-9. Robin Lehner .921
T-9. Cam Ward .921
T-11. Jonathan Bernier .920
T-11. Ondrej Pavelec .920
T-11. Jonathan Quick .920
14. Michal Neuvirth .919
15. Devan Dubnyk .917
16. Jake Allen .916
17. Steve Mason .915

Guys like Miller, Talbot, Niemi, and Lundqvist never played in the NHL until they were 25. Pekka Rinne only had 2 GP and Ben Bishop only had 13 GP before their 25th birthdays.

 

[Lock3Boys]

By what measure?

http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/5283/robin-lehner
107GP 35W 45L 18OTL 2.80 GAA .916 SP 3 SO

Looks pretty "average" to me. If not slightly below average for a starter.

Now, does Lehner have the tools to be a #1? Sure. Will he commit to getting into shape and the conditioning level needed to be a starting goalie in the NHL? remains to be seen.

Isn't Ryan Miller's career save percentage around .914/.915?

I always felt he was average and overrated outside of two seasons, yet people on this board thought he was top 5.

Too early to decide on Lehner, but so far he has been solid when healthy.

 

[Vito_81]

Im still really excited about Lehner. He showed flashes of being a strong, reliable goalie last season. He played that way without feeling 100% from the ankle injury. Thats pretty promising IMO

Im not saying Lehner is definitely the guy for us going forward for the next 10 years. But from what he's shown thus far im confident he has the ability to be our guy.

This season is not Cup or bust time. There are still question marks on the team in every area. Lehner gets the shot this year to prove he has what it takes. As others have said, he may disappoint and make TM rethink things next summer. But a goalie is far from a concern for the Sabres as of today.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

Surrounded by a strong team, is Lehner good enough to win a Cup?

I think the answer is yes and that's really the only question that matters

 

[Woodhouse]

My de facto answers on Lehner remain the same, aka not worried about a healthy Lehner. I simply don't want to hear that he's rushing his rehab to make camp (or some other date) or that he's aggravated it again. In case you've forgotten, flashbacks to February:

Hard to complain when Lehner has a .943+ SV% in 8 of his last 10 GP .. just look how he compares to rest of the league in that period: http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...g&aggregate=1&filter=gamesStarted,gte,5&pos=G

...and a July summary:

Looked back again at Lehner's 20-game stretch in 2016 and used that sample size against everyone else (34 goalies total) in the same time-frame with 12+ GP. Context of the sample size is his return from injury and later playing through re-injury before shutting down. Lehner's stats read --> W = 5 (t-28th best) .. GAA = 2.48 (18th best) .. Sv% = .924 (t-7th best) .. EV Sv% = .923 (t-16th best) .. PP Sv% = .930 (2nd best) .. SH Sv% = .929 (17th best) .. so very good PK'er, above average on the whole saves-wise, average when they're at EV and PP and in GAA, and only poor in wins .. then go compare that to winning goalies like Fleury, Holtby, Korpisalo, Luongo, Rask, etc. and you should conclude that you can win with these numbers with goal support and it's not like Lehner was fully healthy or the defense ideal yet either. I can understand concerns about his injury rehab or season endurance to an extent, but he's not really a problem some make him out to be either simply because they don't like the cost of his acquisition.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...g&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,12&pos=G

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...g&aggregate=1&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,12&pos=G

 

[Meichel Kane]

This team's goaltending worries are so overblown. I expect that by this time next year, one of Lehner or Ullmark will have emerged and firmly seized the job.

Yeah, this team was fine in goal with a combination of Lindback, Enroth, Neuvirth, Johnson, etc. Not exactly something I'm stressing out about.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Before Staal/Girardi fell off the map they actually had a pretty good team. Not a contender, but a consistent playoff team. Lundqvist helped sure.

As for Fluery, he's actually been quite good the past few years. The only reason why they would trade him is because they will have to give Matt Murray a large extension next summer.





If Lehner is injured we have Andres Nilsson as our starting goalie. Who is a NHL career 59 GP, .900 SP, and a 3.09 GAA. All of which are decidedly in the "awful" category. If Lehner is playing strongly and plays 60+ games this year do I trade for Bishop? Absolutely not. If Lehner is injured 3 games into the season? It's a serious consideration.

As much as people here lining up against the idea of spending money on a goalie...the 26 top goalies in the league make more than 4M. 9 make more than 6M.

That means, to get an "average" starting goalie in this league....you likely are spending 5M-ish. To go from a top 26 goalie to a top 10 goalie, salary wise, you have to spend between 1-2M extra.

There is an expansion draft coming next summer and you are only allowed to protect 1 goalie. They either trade Fluery or likely lose him for nothing. Either that or they protect Fleury and lose Matt Murray for nothing.

Also, I believe Fleury has a NMC. I think it turns into a NTC after this year but I'm not sure. If it doesn't, they'd be forced to protect Fleury over Matt Murray.

 

[dotcommunism]

Going to need the names of these magic "starter quality" goalies who will magically appear for cheap.

How are we defining "starter quality" here, because if we're talking about guys who could be at least adequate starting in the NHL they're all over the place. Just the season before last, the Sabres kept trying and failing to pick up goalies who couldn't stop the puck. The Minnesota Wild picked some bum up off the the scrap heap who went on to finish third in Vezina voting and fourth in Hart voting (okay, technically the Coyotes picked him up off the scrap heap, but Minnesota got him for a 3rd).

Still, the underlying point is that if Lehner goes down, it's not Nilsson or bust. It's not even Nilsson or Ullmark or Kasdorf or bust. It's any of a number of options who could range from mediocre to a guy who can go on a run so you ride the hot hand. It's obviously not ideal if Lehner gets hurt, but it's not defcon one either.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

If The Sabres are truly interested in moving this team forward They had better secure a Legit #1 Goalie!

Lehner still is not 100% healed and not a proven #1. Nilsson even as a back up is questionable @ #2.

If Owners are truly interested in advancing this team they had better consider bringing in a proven #1 Goalie.

Everyone is looking to add Defense which is needed but I strongly feel without a true #1 Tender no matter what they added up front this team will not be able to keep the puck out of the net.


Any Thoughts? Will they go with an unproven Duo to start the season or will a deal get done to bring in a proven #1 Stopper.

Where is our draft pick now?

I have a feeling Lehner will never put together a full season as a sabre.

 

[Gras]

Where is our draft pick now?

I have a feeling Lehner will never put together a full season as a sabre.

Playing for Metallurg Magnitogorsk

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

The OP should be on page 12 of a tabloid rag. So much drama over so little problem.