Speculation: Buffalo in need of a Legit #1 Goalie

[Man of Principles]

Lehner made the right decision to sit out for the tournament. It's more important to him to heal. I get nervous watching him, I will say that. If he can keep himself healthy and no freak accidents occur, the best is yet to come. He's starting caliber now, but may have another gear he hasn't gotten to. With all that said, another goalie in the organization would be okay by me.

Contradictory to what I just mentioned, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in another goalie capable of backing up. I'm not sold on Nilsson, but goalie still isn't a glaring need. Top pairing left handed defenseman is.

 

[wunderpanda]

Chad was almost good enough to get the Sabres to the playoffs last season. Guy was over .500, just need Lehner or somebody to be that good & get hot in the playoffs. Don't need a top 3 goalie that steals 40 games a year, just need to avoid the bottom 3 that cost the team wins due to mental lapses. There are only negligible differences in the middle 24, and its those middle guys that got hot & won Cups the last 10 years anyway.

 

[Chad Thundercock]

Just get some cheapo goalie that will save 91%+ of shots and I'm good. I don't care what he looks like.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Lehner made the right decision to sit out for the tournament. It's more important to him to heal. I get nervous watching him, I will say that. If he can keep himself healthy and no freak accidents occur, the best is yet to come. He's starting caliber now, but may have another gear he hasn't gotten to. With all that said, another goalie in the organization would be okay by me.

Contradictory to what I just mentioned, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in another goalie capable of backing up. I'm not sold on Nilsson, but goalie still isn't a glaring need. Top pairing left handed defenseman is.

If he has another gear it will cost the sabres 5 million plus on his next free agent contract. Wonder if that makes Murray a bad GM by some people's philosophy here when it comes to paying a goalie.

 

[HolyGhost]

If The Sabres are truly interested in moving this team forward They had better secure a Legit #1 Goalie!

Lehner still is not 100% healed and not a proven #1. Nilsson even as a back up is questionable @ #2.

If Owners are truly interested in advancing this team they had better consider bringing in a proven #1 Goalie.

Everyone is looking to add Defense which is needed but I strongly feel without a true #1 Tender no matter what they added up front this team will not be able to keep the puck out of the net.


Any Thoughts? Will they go with an unproven Duo to start the season or will a deal get done to bring in a proven #1 Stopper.

I am happy with Lehner

 

[brian_griffin]

(1) This team's goaltending worries are so overblown. (2) I expect that by this time next year, one of Lehner or Ullmark will have emerged and firmly seized the job.

(1) Absolutely agree.
(2) Yes. But if Lehner or Ullmark hasn't fully seized the job, it still won't matter.

I'd far, far rather have cheap goaltending which lets me invest proportionally more cap in players who actually drive possession and shot differential.

Differences in SV% between goalies doesn't matter without context of how many shots you're giving up per game. As the table below attempts to illustrate, suppressing shots against is just as impactful on GA as improving Save%. In the table below, the last column shows essentially equivalent total goals-against for a series of declining shots/against per game with worsening save percentage. i.e., there is no real difference.

SA/GM SV% GP SA SVs GA
34 0.930 82 2788 2592 196
30 0.920 82 2460 2263 197
25 0.905 82 2050 1855 195

Note there are about 60 total shots per NHL game (actually 59.5 per game last season). It's a tight distribution: 29 of 30 teams averaged between 57.5 and 62.9 total shots per game. (New Jersey was the low outlier.) Leaguewide, all teams are within -4.5 and +4.5 in shot differential. (Hence the rationale for tables with 30 +/- ~5 shots increments and paired with the table above for 60 total shots / game. If your suppressing shots, you're likely taking more, on average, per game.

For the first table, I used the Sabres shooting percentage last season.
Shots/GM SF/GM S% GF GP GF
60 _____26 0.0823 2.17 82 175
60 _____30 0.0823 2.50 82 202
60 _____35 0.0823 2.92 82 236

For the second table, I used the league average shooting perecentage.
Shots/GM SF/GM S% GF GP GF
60 _____26 __0.089 2.31 82 189
60 _____30 __0.089 2.67 82 218
60 _____35 __0.089 3.12 82 255

Spend the money on skaters who drive possession and shot differential, not goalies who are only involved in shots against, and don't influence either shots for or against, unless their rebound control is sub-NHL-caliber..

Just get some cheapo goalie that will save 91%+ of shots and I'm good. I don't care what he looks like.

Exactly.

 

[Jim Bob]

Just get some cheapo goalie that will save 91%+ of shots and I'm good. I don't care what he looks like.

.910 is a pretty low bar.

Cam Ward had a .909 Save% last year and the Canes re-signing him was laughed at by many.

 

[brian_griffin]

.910 is a pretty low bar.

Cam Ward had a .909 Save% last year and the Canes re-signing him was laughed at by many.

It's not that low. A total of 69 goalies played 10 or more games last season.

The median SV% was 0.917, the mean was 0.913, the std. deviation was 0.010.

The top third was 0.920-0.934 (tops was Price, it was 0.920-0.930 without him. He played 12 games, fewest in the >10gm/season list).

the middle third was 0.912-0.919.

The bottom third was 0.879-0.910.

GAA median = 2.55. Mean = 2.55. Stdev = 0.31.

Whether Canes should have signed Ward or paid him $3.3M AAV for this season and next is a separate issue. Lack is signed for the same timeframe for $2.75M AAV. I don't think their total spend in goal is problematic for them at this point.

 

[Jim Bob]

It's not that low. A total of 69 goalies played 10 or more games last season.

The median SV% was 0.917, the mean was 0.913, the std. deviation was 0.010.

The top third was 0.920-0.934 (tops was Price, it was 0.920-0.930 without him. He played 12 games, fewest in the >10gm/season list).

the middle third was 0.912-0.919.

The bottom third was 0.879-0.910.

GAA median = 2.55. Mean = 2.55. Stdev = 0.31.

Whether Canes should have signed Ward or paid him $3.3M AAV for this season and next is a separate issue. Lack is signed for the same timeframe for $2.75M AAV. I don't think their total spend in goal is problematic for them at this point.

Wanting a goalie that is in the bottom third in the league in Save% is a low bar to me.

 

[Ace]

I'll worry about goaltending the first time I see them not have a perfectly fine starter. Hasn't happened yet in the 37 years I've been around.

 

[Jim Bob]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-goalie-robin-lehner-sporting-new-look-ive-done-life-changes/

At first glance, you might not recognize Robin Lehner. While the 6-foot-5 Sabres goalie wouldn’t give an exact number, he appears to have shed around 40 pounds since April. His hair, which he has often worn long, is closely cropped. His bushy beard is gone.

“I’ve lost a decent amount of weight, got in shape,†Lehner said this morning after skating inside HarborCenter. “I’ve done some life changes. It’s not always going in a straight line, you know?â€

It will be interesting to see how the new and improved Lehner does this year.

 

[Myllz]

No more psycho Lehner?

 

[FearTheBeard]

If he's in better shape and can stay focused during a 60 min game he could be a top 5 goalie in the league. He let is some soft ones towards the end of games (McDavid just one example) and if he eliminates those he's an extremely good goalie

 

[Jim Bob]

No more psycho Lehner?

He reportedly was working with an MMA trainer, so maybe there is still some psycho left in him.

 

[ozpensfan]

i think its great hes sitting out the world cup - let him come into the season 100% in the right mindset and come to training camp physically at his peak.

 

[TehDoak]

Looking like an average starter at 25 is actually very good

If you look at 5v5 Save % before a goalie turns 25, Lehner is right in the mix
T-1. Tuukka Rask .931
T-1. Braden Holtby .931
T-1. Jaroslav Halak .931
T-4. Petr Mrazek .929
T-4. Sergei Bobrovsky .929
6. Cory Schneider .926
7. Carey Price .925
8. Semyon Varlamov .925
T-9. Robin Lehner .921
T-9. Cam Ward .921
T-11. Jonathan Bernier .920
T-11. Ondrej Pavelec .920
T-11. Jonathan Quick .920
14. Michal Neuvirth .919
15. Devan Dubnyk .917
16. Jake Allen .916
17. Steve Mason .915

Guys like Miller, Talbot, Niemi, and Lundqvist never played in the NHL until they were 25. Pekka Rinne only had 2 GP and Ben Bishop only had 13 GP before their 25th birthdays.

This is really finding a stat to support your claims. Yes, several goalies take years in the AHL to develop and typically are on a long development curve. Buffalo isn't interested in how Lehner might be in 3-4 years....we need him to be ready NOW.

Isn't Ryan Miller's career save percentage around .914/.915?

I always felt he was average and overrated outside of two seasons, yet people on this board thought he was top 5.

Too early to decide on Lehner, but so far he has been solid when healthy.

I think most Sabres fans opinions of Miller we made during the 05/06 and 06/07 seasons when he had very strong teams in front of him, then were reinforced during the Vezina season. He'd been above average to average most years

How are we defining "starter quality" here, because if we're talking about guys who could be at least adequate starting in the NHL they're all over the place. Just the season before last, the Sabres kept trying and failing to pick up goalies who couldn't stop the puck. The Minnesota Wild picked some bum up off the the scrap heap who went on to finish third in Vezina voting and fourth in Hart voting (okay, technically the Coyotes picked him up off the scrap heap, but Minnesota got him for a 3rd).

Still, the underlying point is that if Lehner goes down, it's not Nilsson or bust. It's not even Nilsson or Ullmark or Kasdorf or bust. It's any of a number of options who could range from mediocre to a guy who can go on a run so you ride the hot hand. It's obviously not ideal if Lehner gets hurt, but it's not defcon one either.

Dubnyk had 1/2 a season of literally white hot goaltending. Andrew Hammond did something similar. Dubnyk is now in the same "average" realm of goalies. Hammond probably isn't even a starter.

If you're suggesting that IF Lehner goes down, our strategy SHOULD be to play goalie roulette between Nilsson, Ullmark, and Kasdorf until one of them gets insanely hot and leads us to the playoffs? If that doesn't work, pick up a random goalie off the scrap heap and hope THEY get hot?

That is the equivalent of picking up scratched off lotto tickets in the Tops Parking lot hoping whoever threw it out didn't notice it was a winner.

Just get some cheapo goalie that will save 91%+ of shots and I'm good. I don't care what he looks like.

Again, I'd love to see a list of these wonderful unicorns that will save us.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-goalie-robin-lehner-sporting-new-look-ive-done-life-changes/



It will be interesting to see how the new and improved Lehner does this year.

I was just coming here to post the WGR version of that article/interview.

Lehner seems highly motivated to lock down that #1 spot, and I like it.
People forget that he was unable to work out all last offseason pretty much, and even longer than that actually.
40+ pounds lost is no joke, especially for a goalie.

I also like that he stayed here instead of going to worlds. I took it as a positive at the time. The impression I got when he withdrew from the tournament was that he wanted to stay here because he felt it was more important to prepare for the upcoming Sabres season. But then media people started reacting negatively to him pulling out of the tournament and freaking out that he wasn't healed yet... then that started making me wonder if I misinterpreted things... So I was glad to read that my initial impression was right.

 

[OkimLom]

I was just coming here to post the WGR version of that article/interview.

Lehner seems highly motivated to lock down that #1 spot, and I like it.
People forget that he was unable to work out all last offseason pretty much, and even longer than that actually.
40+ pounds lost is no joke, especially for a goalie.

I also like that he stayed here instead of going to worlds. I took it as a positive at the time. The impression I got when he withdrew from the tournament was that he wanted to stay here because he felt it was more important to prepare for the upcoming Sabres season. But then media people started reacting negatively to him pulling out of the tournament and freaking out that he wasn't healed yet... then that started making me wonder if I misinterpreted things... So I was glad to read that my initial impression was right.

You have to consider the sources of who reports on those things.

If I remember correctly, those that were reporting negatively, were of Swedish connections. I could understand that.

Of course, people here jumped on pretty quickly that he withdrew because he's not 100%. This is why it's important to always have the facts before making assumptions.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

This is really finding a stat to support your claims. Yes, several goalies take years in the AHL to develop and typically are on a long development curve. Buffalo isn't interested in how Lehner might be in 3-4 years....we need him to be ready NOW.

Find me a better stat to determine a goalie's success than even strength save %

 

[Jacob582]

I thought he stayed in Buffalo to work with the Sabres training staff. I find it interesting that he only mentions WNY MMA.