Buffalo Bills: 7-5 – at Denver

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

here I'll lay it all out

3/10 attempts = sure win (charitable to marrone)
5/10 attempts = Need 70 yard td drive
2/10 attempts = sure loss

7/10 FG = need 40 yard FG drive
2/10 FG = Sure loss
1/10 FG = need 70 yard TD drive


we take out those which cancel

attempts: 3 sure wins, 4 70 yard td drives
fg: 7 40 yard FG drives, 1 70 yard td drive

ya thats what im seeing, but im not seeing anything about your odds of converting that second drive into points

 

[enthusiast]

found your link, your going to need to point where your odds of the chiefs doing whatever you have them doing because I dont see anything in the pdf that talks about the odds of KC giving the ball back

It's based off of their performance today, 2/8 3rd down conversions and understood assumption of a run/run/run playcall

you may say this is not a fair assumption but three runs is stock esp for the chiefs


note that I'm being charitable to Marrone twice already, once with the percentage likelihood of 4th and 10 (rounding up from 25% to 30% for simplicity) and the sure wins (which don't account for any chiefs scoring)

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

It's based off of their performance today, 2/8 3rd down conversions and understood assumption of a run/run/run playcall

you may say this is not a fair assumption but three runs is stock esp for the chiefs

except that they got the ball back and went...

run

run

pass for first down

run the clock to 16 secs, im saying its not a fair assumption because I got to see their play calling on a last drive and it doesnt match what you say would have happened

so far all I see is someone with a fancy pdf and then saying their assumptions are better then someone elses assumptions

 

[26CornerBlitz]

This is the Bills as of today.

 

[enthusiast]

except that they got the ball back and went...

run

run

pass for first down

run the clock to 16 secs

so far all I see is someone with a fancy pdf and then saying their assumptions are better then someone elses assumptions

No, I'm saying it's what Marrone would be thinking rationally when he made his decision. It doesn't matter what happened or even what would happen, just what could happen when he made that decision

regardless the 3rd down % holds in that scenario because there was a third down

 

[enthusiast]

also the dolphins caved late to the lions, come back on thursday with a win and they're suddenly 6-4 with jets/browns/raiders/pack all winnable

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

No, I'm saying it's what Marrone would be thinking rationally when he made his decision. It doesn't matter what happened or even what would happen, just what could happen when he made that decision

regardless the 3rd down % holds in that scenario because there was a third down

stats are only stats, what happened is what actually happened

what happened was they converted the third down

we disagree on what a coach should have been thinking there, a coach should be thinking I can win it here, or I can hope i get the ball back, either way its in the offenses hands lets do it now

 

[enthusiast]

we disagree on what a coach should have been thinking there, a coach should be thinking I can win it here, or I can hope i get the ball back, either way its in the offenses hands lets do it now

I agree with you, and yes it was a disappointment. But he's not playing the odds well, he's gambling under pressure

more satisfying than superconservative jauron but he's not picking his spots rationally

like that 4th and 1 earlier in the quarter. If he went for it on that and also on the 4th and 10, whatever, but he went against probability both times and that's just not a recipe for success

 

[whiplash]

This is a pointless conversation considering they lost chiefly because Hackett doesn't know how to run on 2nd and 2 from the 3 yard line, not because of some obscure odds and what ifs. Flat out. He's a ****in moron. McKelvin's fumble is obviously the second reason and throwing 4 times after getting a first at the opp. 25 is the third. Brown's fumble is 4 and down the line a bit is this silly conversation of whether they should have kicked a FG on 4th and 10 (a position they shouldn't have been in in the first place)

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I agree with you, and yes it was a disappointment. But he's not playing the odds well, he's gambling under pressure

more satisfying than superconservative jauron but he's not picking his spots rationally

like that 4th and 1 earlier in the quarter. If he went for it on that and also on the 4th and 10, whatever, but he went against probability both times and that's just not a recipe for success

the probabilities you listed are only considering the odds of getting points out of that drive, not enough points to win, just getting some points

 

[enthusiast]

they said marrone was calling the plays this week. C/D anyone?

 

[Chad Thundercock]

4th down conversion rates are anything but obscure today. It's common knowledge that old NFL clods don't bother to know.

 

[enthusiast]

the probabilities you listed are only considering the odds of getting points out that drive, not enough points to win, just getting some points

well when it's much more likely that they get 0 points than any it's important to consider the rest

by bare virtue of 4th down conversions marrone made the wrong decision in terms of probability both on 4th and 1 and 4th and 10

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

well when it's much more likely that they get 0 points than any it's important to consider the rest

by bare virtue of 4th down conversions marrone made the wrong decision in terms of probability both on 4th and 1 and 4th and 10

you can abuse a statistic to get it to say whatever you want it to, doesnt make your argument any more correct

 

[enthusiast]

you can abuse a statistic to get it to say whatever you want it to, doesnt make your argument any more correct

lol


"the accumulation of hundreds of similar examples has the conversion rates at X and Y, Marrone chose to attempt an improbable conversion and punt on a probable scenario"

"That's abusing the statistic!"

 

[missingmika]

you can abuse a statistic to get it to say whatever you want it to, doesnt make your argument any more correct

Speaking of odds...congrats to KC for beating the odds and having (i think) 0 holding calls all game vs the Bills D-Line.....Almost a statistical improbability.

And if that was PI on Chandler for a push off, then Jordy Nelson has like 5 catches a year....because thats about how many catches he gets without a similar push.

 

[Woodman19]

I am sorry, but Brown and McKelvin fumbling the ball in the 2nd half is the reason the Bills lost. At some point you have to blame players for failing to execute. Up to that point the Bills defense was in full control of the game and those turnovers gave the Chiefs life.

 

[Chad Thundercock]

Brown's fumble was inexcusable, he has to protect the ball. McKelvin's was a football play that happens sometimes.

That's where you need a good offense that puts the game away when the defense is dominating the line of scrimmage and they didn't. And some of that goes on Marrone for willingly punting in foolish situations.

 

[misterchainsaw]

According to the win probability calculator at advanced football analytics, the Bills win probability was 13% when they went for it on 4th and 10.

Assuming 6 seconds off of the clock for the FG then a TB on the kickoff (pretty much the best they could hope for, as no time ran would run off), their win percentage would be 12% with the Chiefs taking over if they kicked the FG.

Kicking the field goal would have lowered their win expectancy by 1%. As I expected, it was a very close decision that would have been justifiable either way, but the numbers showed that going for it was just slightly the correct decision.

 

[enthusiast]

What really stings about Brown's fumble is Chandler mishandling it after

 

[kirby11]

This is a pointless conversation considering they lost chiefly because Hackett doesn't know how to run on 2nd and 2 from the 3 yard line, not because of some obscure odds and what ifs. Flat out. He's a ****in moron. McKelvin's fumble is obviously the second reason and throwing 4 times after getting a first at the opp. 25 is the third. Brown's fumble is 4 and down the line a bit is this silly conversation of whether they should have kicked a FG on 4th and 10 (a position they shouldn't have been in in the first place)

This killed me. How to goal line: Run. If the run doesn't work, call a play action, roll out and toss to the wide open TE. Easy...for everyone except the Bills.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

lol


"the accumulation of hundreds of similar examples has the conversion rates at X and Y, Marrone chose to attempt an improbable conversion and punt on a probable scenario"

"That's abusing the statistic!"

this is like the underwear pants gnome argument

step 1 kick fg
step 2 let the defense play
step 3 ...
step 4 kick another fg

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

According to the win probability calculator at advanced football analytics, the Bills win probability was 13% when they went for it on 4th and 10.

Assuming 6 seconds off of the clock for the FG then a TB on the kickoff (pretty much the best they could hope for, as no time ran would run off), their win percentage would be 12% with the Chiefs taking over if they kicked the FG.

Kicking the field goal would have lowered their win expectancy by 1%. As I expected, it was a very close decision that would have been justifiable either way, but the numbers showed that going for it was just slightly the correct decision.

hey look something that takes into account more then the 1 fg that wouldnt have won the game, interesting

 

[enthusiast]

According to the win probability calculator at advanced football analytics, the Bills win probability was 13% when they went for it on 4th and 10.

Assuming 6 seconds off of the clock for the FG then a TB on the kickoff (pretty much the best they could hope for, as no time ran would run off), their win percentage would be 12% with the Chiefs taking over.

Kicking the field goal would have lowered their win expectancy by 1%. As I expected, it was a very close decision that would have been justifiable either way, but the numbers showed that going for it was just slightly the correct decision.

the WP calc doesn't account for timeouts stopping the clock, playcalling tendencies, defensive matchups, etc

like it literally doesn't factor in how often the clock can be stopped

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

the WP calc doesn't account for timeouts stopping the clock, playcalling tendencies, defensive matchups, etc

it takes into account a hell of a lot more then you are