Buffalo Bills: 7-5 – at Denver

[enthusiast]

Orton's worst day for us thus far

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[misterchainsaw]

no, kicking the fg is the only logical move in that scenario

Laughable.

 

[Takeo]

I'm thinking 7-9 finish.

I said 5-11 before the year. Took my bye week mulligan at 8-8. Predicted 2-2 for the season's third quarter and that still looks reasonable. As far as this "playoffs" thing, I don't see the point of debating whether a bad team can stay statistically alive. It's a futile consideration.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

you make it all the way down the field, you go for it

maybe you dont run 4 consecutive plays to the end zone and you try for a 1st down at some point, but you dont wuss it out

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

wow harbaugh

makes a comment live, then looks at the camera and says make sure that doesnt go on air

nvm he didnt say anything good

 

[enthusiast]

Laughable.

4th and 10 % vs short fg % * fg %

 

[Takeo]

I didn't have a strong preference between going for it or kicking the field goal. Either decision had merit. My issue was chucking the ball 4 times into the end zone. They were moving the ball all half. They should have kept plugging away and running the clock. Chop their way inside the 10 and go from there. 4 throws in a row weren't even close.

 

[misterchainsaw]

4th and 10 % vs short fg % * fg %

You can't be serious

So kicking the field goal automatically results them in getting the ball back and in field goal range again? Because that's what you imply with your moronic comparison there.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I didn't have a strong preference between going for it or kicking the field goal. Either decision had merit. My issue was chucking the ball 4 times into the end zone. They were moving the ball all half. They should have kept plugging away and running the clock. Chop their way inside the 10 and go from there. 4 throws in a row weren't even close.

I agree. Orton's decision making and execution was awful in the red zone today. Even with that, he had Hogan on that 3rd down throw (which was the only one he just didn't throw it up to a covered receiver.)

 

[Chad Thundercock]

I think going on 4th and 10 is the easy decision.

Odds on getting that are ~20%.

If you kick the FG, ~85% of Carpenter making it to begin with in a decent wind. Then you need a 3 and out, which years of NFL conservative thinking makes sound way easier than it really is. Then you still need to drive roughly 30 yards to get in FG range with no time outs and ~2 minutes left.

I can listen to debate on that one, but I think Marrone was right.

The 4th and inches, you have to go for those, but I'm tired arguing it. People will never value possession enough.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

4th and 10 % vs short fg % * fg % * odds of getting a stop * field position after the punt * another drive down to field goal range * time left after you get the ball back

theres the rest of that for you

odds of getting a stop - took us 2 sets of downs to get the ball back
field position after the punt - 30 something yard line
time left after you get the ball back - we got the ball back with 8 secs left and no time outs

 

[Myllz]

Coaching staff is still the main reason this team isn't better than they are.

 

[Clock]

That was a gut wrencher.

 

[Zman5778]

Coaching staff is still the main reason this team isn't better than they are.

Between sketchy playcalling and inconsistent/crappy coaching decisions, I completely agree.

Oh, and they're still maddeningly undisciplined at times.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Coaching staff is still the main reason this team isn't better than they are.

Yup, they're totally coaching the team to fumble the ball in critical situations. Fact is they solidly outplayed a good football team. Ran 20 more plays, gained more than 100 more yards. Just Bills'd it up twice. Those two plays were a 10 point swing (Brown's TD and the McKelvin fumble started the Chiefs in FG range). So, so enraging.

 

[Ralonzo]

I keep hearing how Bills fans are angry at this loss, which makes me ask: Have you watched this team play in this century? If so, you know what to expect.

 

[enthusiast]

NFL 4th and 10 conversion rate averages out to 30% here

let's be generous and assume that those 3/10 are guaranteed wins. We'll come back to the 7/10 later

From the same source, FG% roughly 90. 9/10 scenarios are made field goal, 1/10 scenarios is equal to the 7/10 above


Ok, what does that mean?

For the decision to make a field goal to be better, the overall percentage chance to win has to be better than equal.

The benefit, of course, lies in only needing a FG to win in those 9/10 scenarios.


For all scenarios ending with a FG score/no score, we assume the Chiefs begin possession between the 15-25.

Assume Bills force a 3-and-out, which must have been a consideration in Marrone's decision to take a low-percentage play. Average a 40 yard punt, and the Bills get the ball on their ~30 with 2:00.

In 9/10 FG scenarios, approximately 40 yards and a FG are needed to win.
In 1/10 FG scenarios, 70 yards and a touchdown are needed to win.
In 7/10 Attempt scenarios, 70 yards and a touchdown are needed to win.



What you must believe, then, is that it is likelier that the Bills would score fewer than 3 more FGs than TDs in these scenarios

 

[enthusiast]

theres the rest of that for you

odds of getting a stop - took us 2 sets of downs to get the ball back
field position after the punt - 30 something yard line
time left after you get the ball back - we got the ball back with 8 secs left and no time outs

yeah i was putting in an effort post because assuming people consider these things isn't safe I guess

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

NFL 4th and 10 conversion rate averages out to 30% here

let's be generous and assume that those 3/10 are guaranteed wins. We'll come back to the 7/10 later

From the same source, FG% roughly 90. 9/10 scenarios are made field goal, 1/10 scenarios is equal to the 7/10 above


Ok, what does that mean?

For the decision to make a field goal to be better, the overall percentage chance to win has to be better than equal.

The benefit, of course, lies in only needing a FG to win in those 9/10 scenarios.


For all scenarios ending with a FG score/no score, we assume the Chiefs begin possession between the 15-25.

Assume Bills force a 3-and-out, which must have been a consideration in Marrone's decision to take a low-percentage play. Average a 40 yard punt, and the Bills get the ball on their ~30 with 2:00.

In 9/10 FG scenarios, approximately 40 yards and a FG are needed to win.
In 1/10 FG scenarios, 70 yards and a touchdown are needed to win.
In 7/10 Attempt scenarios, 70 yards and a touchdown are needed to win.



What you must believe, then, is that it is likelier that the Bills would score fewer than 3 more FGs than TDs in these scenarios

which in non-fantasy hypothetical land didnt happen

 

[misterchainsaw]

NFL 4th and 10 conversion rate averages out to 30% here

let's be generous and assume that those 3/10 are guaranteed wins. We'll come back to the 7/10 later

From the same source, FG% roughly 90. 9/10 scenarios are made field goal, 1/10 scenarios is equal to the 7/10 above


Ok, what does that mean?

For the decision to make a field goal to be better, the overall percentage chance to win has to be better than equal.

The benefit, of course, lies in only needing a FG to win in those 9/10 scenarios.


For all scenarios ending with a FG score/no score, we assume the Chiefs begin possession between the 15-25.

Assume Bills force a 3-and-out, which must have been a consideration in Marrone's decision to take a low-percentage play. Average a 40 yard punt, and the Bills get the ball on their ~30 with 2:00.

In 9/10 FG scenarios, approximately 40 yards and a FG are needed to win.
In 1/10 FG scenarios, 70 yards and a touchdown are needed to win.
In 7/10 Attempt scenarios, 70 yards and a touchdown are needed to win.



What you must believe, then, is that it is likelier that the Bills would score fewer than 3 more FGs than TDs in these scenarios

Assume the Bills force a 3 and out?? How convenient. Your statistical analysis skills are yet again pathetic.

If Marrone thought a 3 and out was guaranteed, yes, you probably kick the field goal. It's not. At all. And suggesting he thought it was because he went for it is laughably moronic.

 

[enthusiast]

Regardless they shouldn't have passed three times in a row to get to that point, running game was working

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

4 consecutive passes in the red zone and Orton didnt give his receiver a chance on any of them

 

[enthusiast]

Assume the Bills force a 3 and out?? How convenient. Your statistical analysis skills are yet again pathetic.

I guess Marrone is just ignorant, then ?

How else would you explain him taking a 30% chance

I'm not arguing what would have happened, I'm arguing his decision

 

[whiplash]

I ****ing hate this team. I ****ing hate Hackett. 2nd and 2 at the 3 with the recent running game doing gangbusters and two passes are called. **** that guy to the ****ing moon. **** McKelvin for fumbling after a massive D stand, **** Brown for fumbling on the 5 and **** people who say "LOLZ WHY SUPRIZED, BILLZ". A halfway competent offense wins that game 10 out of 10 times. **** Orton for not even giving his receivers a chance on the last meaningful drive and once again, **** Hackett for calling 4 passes with 1st and 10 at the 25. ****ing gross

 

[enthusiast]

Also I love how the reaction to "this is a compilation of modern nfl data as a summary of what has occurred in similar situations" is "fantasy land"