I think you still have to be right in tune with what's up in the other NHL team camps to be able to make the decision. I'm not following closely enough and don't have the requisite connections.
One bottom line for me is that I want to retain Tokarski. All things being equal, I'd pick Budaj as backup for this season, and Tokarski as my backup for next season. But to get away with that, I have to know what the real risks are of losing Tokarski on waivers if I send him down. I would normally not expect him to be claimed. But I'd really have to know what's going on around the league a little better than I've had the time to. It's Bergevin's full-time job, so I expect him to know. Then the decision becomes easy.
If you KNOW/are 99% sure Tokarski will clear waivers, send him down.
If you believe there's a real chance he gets claimed, keep him up.
It's about as simple as that, and I just don't think any of us would be in a good enough position to judge the odds on him clearing. There are a lot of goalies kicking around, so my default expectation is that he would clear, but I'm not following injuries, all the pre-season game action, etc. You'd really have to do your homework and have a lot of connections to be able to really make an informed decision.