Value of: Bryan Rust

[Sidney the Kidney]

No better strategy than buying high on a 28 year old coming off a career year with a high shooting percentage. Definitely no buyer beware in flashing neon lights to be seen here.

If the asking price is that of a point per game winger, then sure, that would be a case of buyer beware. But I'm not sure how gauging interest in a winger capable of being a 20-ish goal, 45-ish point two-way player would fall under the buyer beware category.

 

[Boondock]

You'll never get any good offers on here for Rust because HF thinks any player that plays with Crosby or Malkin sucks and is just carried by them.

He's at worst about equal to Zucker right now, and he'll jump past Zucker if he repeats what he did last year. I'd consider him a 50-60 point 2-way top-6 winger right now, same as Zucker and similar trade value (1st and B+ prospect) to Zucker. Here's how Rust's 2016-2020 compare to Zucker's 2016-2020:

Rust: 73 goals and 157 points in 253 games (pace of 24 goals and 51 points per 82 games)
Zucker: 96 goals and 194 points in 302 games (pace of 26 goals and 53 points per 82 games)

I can see the comparison between the 2 and don't really watch either one enough to give a confident break down, but where I see the difference is that Rust was a 35 point player until this season and then jumped to over a ppg in his 28 year old season. This seems like an outlier season, not the norm so if the Pens expect top line winger return for Rust it won't happen. At 28 a player isn't expected to improve their offensive output. Zucker has had success outside of this single season and has produced over 40 pts for 4 consecutive seasons so teams will feel that Zucker's floor is higher than Rust's so his value would seem to be greater. Ray Ferraro (whom I like as a hockey broadcaster) has said many times when discussing players "there's a difference between being a 30 goal scorer and having a 30 goal season" I tend to agree - Jonathan Cheechoo wasn't a 50 goal scorer, he had 56 goals one season. I know that is an extreme example, but it would take at least one more year of similar production before Rust has the value of a 50-60 point winger.

 

[Boondock]

Rust was still over a half PPG player before this year, so I don't know why you're acting like he only has 1 year of being a great contributor. He was a 2nd/3rd line tweener before this year and has elevated to a 1st/2nd line tweener now.

Only because of his career stats being hugely bumped up by this season. If you take out this season he averages 37 pts per 82 games over the rest of his career.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Only because of his career stats being hugely bumped up by this season. If you take out this season he averages 37 pts per 82 games over the rest of his career.

Taking out his 2019-2020 but leaving in his 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 is insanely dishonest.

From 2016-2019, Rust had a 42 point pace. That's a 2nd/3rd line tweener.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Only because of his career stats being hugely bumped up by this season. If you take out this season he averages 37 pts per 82 games over the rest of his career.

Why would you leave in his 41 game rookie season and his 14 injury call-up season, yet take out his most recent season?

 

[Jerkbait]

Curious how HFBoards feels about this.

Also 15th overall and Hallander amirite?

Easily a better player than kapp and more offensive punch. He would surely get a same return or more. He would look great in Edmonton but doubt pens are trading him

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why would you leave in his 41 game rookie season and his 14 injury call-up season, yet take out his most recent season?

Because they have an opinion and he's massaging the numbers to match their opinion, instead of looking at the numbers to evaluate a player.

 

[Boondock]

Taking out his 2019-2020 but leaving in his 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 is insanely dishonest.

Sure, so from 2016-2019 he has 28pts, 38 pts and 35 pts which is an average of 33pts per season and I would be concerned with his inability to stay on the ice. No season with more than 72 games is concerning from a health standpoint. 3 different stints on LTIR is worrisome and would negatively impact his value - No?

 

[Boondock]

Why would you leave in his 41 game rookie season and his 14 injury call-up season, yet take out his most recent season?

fair point, response is above.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sure, so from 2016-2019 he has 28pts, 38 pts and 35 pts which is an average of 33pts per season and I would be concerned with his inability to stay on the ice. No season with more than 72 games is concerning from a health standpoint. 3 different stints on LTIR is worrisome and would negatively impact his value - No?

If injury is a concern, have at it. But listing those totals as though that's what he produced over a full 82 games is really misleading about what kind of production you get from him even prior to his breakout season.

That's like someone arguing Crosby has never been below point per game in his career and someone else pointing out his seasons when he was injured when he scored below 82 points to somehow prove the point that he's not really been point per game his entire career.

 

[Boondock]

If injury is a concern, have at it. But listing those totals as though that's what he produced over a full 82 games is really misleading about what kind of production you get from him even prior to his breakout season.

That's like someone arguing Crosby has never been below point per game in his career and someone else pointing out his seasons when he was injured when he scored below 82 points to somehow prove the point that he's not really been point per game his entire career.

A few points:
1: My response was to this quote by Empolean8771

"Rust was still over a half PPG player before this year, so I don't know why you're acting like he only has 1 year of being a great contributor. He was a 2nd/3rd line tweener before this year and has elevated to a 1st/2nd line tweener now."

So I responded using stats from Rust's career before this year. It wasn't disingenuous or misleading, it was a response to a quote. If you do the math without this year (as the post stated) Rust is 0.45 pts/gm - not over half point per game, just under and that equates to 36.9 pts per 82 games.

2: How would you know that this is misleading ( see highlighted sentence)? No one knows what Rust would do over 82 games, it has never happened. All we have are his actual numbers and from 2016-2019 Rust went 28pts, 38 pts and 35 points meaning his average points per season in his top 3 years before this season was 33pts per year.

3: Terrible example with Crosby - Crosby didn't have pts per game of 0.14, 0.27, 0.49, 0.55, 0.49 and then jump up to 1+ pts per game. Crosby regardless of how many games he plays still produces at a similar level, Rust increased his production by 100%, that comes off as being the exception not the standard.

 

[Halla]

Curious how HFBoards feels about this.

Also 15th overall and Hallander amirite?

well rutherford cant trade with himself so they dont get that kinda return

 

[Syckle78]

If the asking price is that of a point per game winger, then sure, that would be a case of buyer beware. But I'm not sure how gauging interest in a winger capable of being a 20-ish goal, 45-ish point two-way player would fall under the buyer beware category.

Not even talking about valuing him as a ppg winger. I'm saying even as a 50-60 point winger as someone earlier tried to label him as I would have giant buyer beware tag attached to him. No matter what anyone wants to argue otherwise trading real value for a 28 year old that put up his numbers for the first time in his career with his shooting percentage is a risky move. If he were a free agent he'd be a major candidate for the worst contract given out. There's very very few examples of guys like this working out going forward.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Rust was often paired with the 3rd and 4th line centers versus the top line centers in the regular season which is why we saw his production uptick this year when he was played pretty much solely with Malkin.

If that’s the case then we will se who produces more next season. My money is on Zucker. But it should be close.

 

[Syckle78]

Buyer beware signs never stop NHL GM’s from making moves.

Even if Rust’s shooting percentage regresses(it almost certainly will) we are still talking about a fast 35-40 point player that has shown he can excel in the bottom 6 and also produce with skill players in the top 6.

Ok and that's fine if that's what the value traded for him is. My entire point is some gm would be buying high and that is something to be wary of. He definitely comes with a ton of risk if you're paying for what he was this past year or trying to pass him off as a 50-60 point two way winger.

 

[McJedi]

Eh. I think the intention of moving Rust would be Pitt to shave cap and get a solid young forward that can step into the top nine next season and has top six upside.

If that is the case, Avs offer Kaut. No adds. Just one for one hockey trade. He’s got 3 years on his elc.

 

[Gurglesons]

If that is the case, Avs offer Kaut. No adds. Just one for one hockey trade. He’s got 3 years on his elc.

I feel like that may work. I think PIT would ask for a pick too though.

Would Avs do Timmins straight up for Rust?

 

[McJedi]

I feel like that may work. I think PIT would ask for a pick too though.

Would Avs do Timmins straight up for Rust?

F no. Timmins will be playing top 4 minutes next year. And Pitt doesn’t have a pick to add to that offer either.

 

[Gurglesons]

F no. Timmins will be playing top 4 minutes next year. And Pitt doesn’t have a pick to add to that offer either.

Avs are getting a playoff performer who has shown to connect with elite talent and has speed to match. To be honest, Kaut is a solid prospect, but I don’t think he’s proven enough for the Pens to dish Rust.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

2: How would you know that this is misleading ( see highlighted sentence)? No one knows what Rust would do over 82 games, it has never happened. All we have are his actual numbers and from 2016-2019 Rust went 28pts, 38 pts and 35 points meaning his average points per season in his top 3 years before this season was 33pts per year.

Common sense? Being realistic? Assuming he plays 82 games instead of 57, for example, is it realistic to expect him to not score a single point in those extra games and he'll end up with 28 points in 82 games? Saying "no one knows what Rust would do over 82 games" seems a bit simplistic when you know what he did in 57 games, and unless you believe he'll get zero points in 25 games, an educated guess suggests he won't end up with just 28 games over a full 82.

I'm not saying he'll end up with a huge point total, but common sense suggests that if he can pace for what he did in 55-71 games in those seasons, then he'd probably pace for similar in the games he missed.

3: Terrible example with Crosby - Crosby didn't have pts per game of 0.14, 0.27, 0.49, 0.55, 0.49 and then jump up to 1+ pts per game. Crosby regardless of how many games he plays still produces at a similar level, Rust increased his production by 100%, that comes off as being the exception not the standard.

The point was that if you don't take into account the games missed and just paint the picture of a player based on his point totals, you don't paint a proper picture of how much he actually produced in the games he played that year.

 

[McJedi]

Avs are getting a playoff performer who has shown to connect with elite talent and has speed to match. To be honest, Kaut is a solid prospect, but I don’t think he’s proven enough for the Pens to dish Rust.

Fair enough. Pens probably get other offers on Rust. Not sure they help your cap situation, but he’s a nice player. Avs have several fall backs. UFA and cap dump trades like Killorn or Johnsson that will be skewed in the Avs favor sending back middling picks or B level prospects like Sampo Ranta so the other side can clear cap space without taking back AAV.

The Avs won’t need to lose a trade this offseason to address middle six winger. They’ll have better alternatives.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Not even talking about valuing him as a ppg winger. I'm saying even as a 50-60 point winger as someone earlier tried to label him as I would have giant buyer beware tag attached to him. No matter what anyone wants to argue otherwise trading real value for a 28 year old that put up his numbers for the first time in his career with his shooting percentage is a risky move. If he were a free agent he'd be a major candidate for the worst contract given out. There's very very few examples of guys like this working out going forward.

If you don't include his rookie season where he played 41 games and assume he's closer to the player he is since then, he's averaged 42 points per 82 games in the three years prior to his breakout. So even if you think last year was a mirage, he's good for around 42 points to go along with his two way play and PK skills.

So putting his value at around a 50 point guy (taking into account his jump in production this past year on top of what he was prior) seems fair because even if he "regresses" you're getting a 42 point guy instead of a 50 point guy you paid for. That's hardly the kind of drop off where it would be in contention for worst contract given out.

 

[Dr Quincy]

If you don't include his rookie season where he played 41 games and assume he's closer to the player he is since then, he's averaged 42 points per 82 games in the three years prior to his breakout. So even if you think last year was a mirage, he's good for around 42 points to go along with his two way play and PK skills.

So putting his value at around a 50 point guy (taking into account his jump in production this past year on top of what he was prior) seems fair because even if he "regresses" you're getting a 42 point guy instead of a 50 point guy you paid for. That's hardly the kind of drop off where it would be in contention for worst contract given out.

You are missing the point. As the other poster said, why prorate the pts for 82 games, when he's never played 82 games? These hypothetical pts he might've scored don't appear on the score sheet, because he didn't play the games.

He has played 253 out of the last 315 Penguins games. Prorated to an 82 game schedule, it means he plays at a rate of 66 (rounded up) games a year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It should be noted that JR has made the indication that he doesn't care about picks and prospects and is only focused on maximizing the next 2 years of the window, since Malkin's deal is done after that. He'll probably re-sign, but it's also possible he leaves to go back to Russia if the team doesn't look like a contender like Datsyuk did.

I don't think JR would do Rust for either an unproven prospect or picks. He wants win-now help. I could see him doing Rust for another Kapanen type of winger (young middle-6 winger with speed and upside), but I can't see him being okay with someone like Kaut or Timmins as a centerpiece. If they weren't in the same division, I could actually see Rust to Columbus for Bjorkstrand working. Columbus tried to pay Vegas in 2017 to draft Rust and trade him to Columbus, so they've shown interest in him in the past. Being in the same division complicates that greatly though, because I don't think either team would want to see their current player on the other team.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

It should be noted that JR has made the indication that he doesn't care about picks and prospects and is only focused on maximizing the next 2 years of the window, since Malkin's deal is done after that. He'll probably re-sign, but it's also possible he leaves to go back to Russia if the team doesn't look like a contender like Datsyuk did.

I don't think JR would do Rust for either an unproven prospect or picks. He wants win-now help. I could see him doing Rust for another Kapanen type of winger (young middle-6 winger with speed and upside), but I can't see him being okay with someone like Kaut or Timmins as a centerpiece. If they weren't in the same division, I could actually see Rust to Columbus for Bjorkstrand working. Columbus tried to pay Vegas in 2017 to draft Rust and trade him to Columbus, so they've shown interest in him in the past. Being in the same division complicates that greatly though, because I don't think either team would want to see their current player on the other team.

I would absolutely want a deal around Josh Anderson if he goes to Columbus. But yeah, very unlikely he is dealt to a rival.

Even though I wouldn’t mind. Rust isn’t a star player like if we dealt Malkin to Columbus that would bite us in the ass way more than a Rust trade would.