BonkTastic
ಠ_ಠ
Hey guys, I made this post in another thread, but thought if it might generate some discussion, it could warrant it's own thread? At least at the next draft, when someone asks why we didn't take "that particular Russian" player, someone can necro-bump this thread as a starter FAQ of Bryan Murray's draft trends concerning Russian players.
Hypothesis:
Bryan Murray does not draft Russian players. Like, at all. Almost ever.
Proof:
Bryan Murray has been an NHL GM of three teams over the past 19 years. Their drafting records, under Murray, are as follows-
Murray with Ottawa
2007 - Ruslan Bashkirov (2nd round) - Was still using Muckler's scouts, he had only been GM for 4 days when the draft happened.
Result in Ottawa, 2007-present: 6 years of drafting, 41 players selected, ONE Russian (that he probably wouldn't have even taken if "his guys" had been around.)
Murray with Anaheim, 2002-2004
no Russians drafted
Result with Anaheim: 3 years of drafting, 25 players selected, zero Russians.
In fact, you need to go back to Murray's Florida days (1994-2000) before you have evidence of even a single Russian guy Murray wanted himself... and looking at Florida's track there over 7 drafts, you can even see back then evidence of Murray eschewing Russian picks, even during the 90's mentality of "let's draft Russians because the Iron Curtain is down and every pick is the next Fedorov!!!1":
Murray with Florida, 1995-2000
- Vladimir Sapozhnikov, 2nd round (2000)
- Ivan Novoseltsev, 4th round (1997)
- Oleg Kvasha, 3rd round (1996)
Result in Florida, 1995-2000: 7 years of drafting, 64 players selected, 3 Russians.
So, what's our final tally for Bryan Murray as a GM Since 1995?
- 15 years as an NHL GM
- 130 players selected
- 4 Russians (or, ~3% of Murray's total picks)
- Of those 4 Russians, NONE were 1st rounders.
Conclusions/ What we have learned: We have, as we can best extrapolate from existing data (and assuming Murray has established enough of a sample size to assume that his drafting trends will continue), a ~3% chance of drafting a Russian player in Ottawa while Murray is here. Even less of a chance of taking a Russian in the first round.
*NOTE*
This post ignores Murray's draft record with Detroit, which includes the following Russians:
- Vyacheslav Kozlov (3rd round, 1990)
- Dmitri Motkov (5th round, 1991)
- Igor Malykhin (7th round, 1991)
- Yuri Yeresko (7th round, 1993)
- Yan Golubovsky (1st round, 1994)
- Pavel Agarkov (6th round, 1994)
Why Murray has drafted a higher number of Russians in Detroit is a good question to ask. Was he more apt to be influenced by the Red Wings scouts because of their past successes in Russia? Did the team force Murray to draft more Rusians to appease the at-the-time UNHEARD of wealth of Russian talent? Did he just simply back off of drafting Russians slowly, over time? Tough to say, and even harder to prove any of those theories.
Hypothesis:
Bryan Murray does not draft Russian players. Like, at all. Almost ever.
Proof:
Bryan Murray has been an NHL GM of three teams over the past 19 years. Their drafting records, under Murray, are as follows-
Murray with Ottawa
2007 - Ruslan Bashkirov (2nd round) - Was still using Muckler's scouts, he had only been GM for 4 days when the draft happened.
Result in Ottawa, 2007-present: 6 years of drafting, 41 players selected, ONE Russian (that he probably wouldn't have even taken if "his guys" had been around.)
Murray with Anaheim, 2002-2004
no Russians drafted
Result with Anaheim: 3 years of drafting, 25 players selected, zero Russians.
In fact, you need to go back to Murray's Florida days (1994-2000) before you have evidence of even a single Russian guy Murray wanted himself... and looking at Florida's track there over 7 drafts, you can even see back then evidence of Murray eschewing Russian picks, even during the 90's mentality of "let's draft Russians because the Iron Curtain is down and every pick is the next Fedorov!!!1":
Murray with Florida, 1995-2000
- Vladimir Sapozhnikov, 2nd round (2000)
- Ivan Novoseltsev, 4th round (1997)
- Oleg Kvasha, 3rd round (1996)
Result in Florida, 1995-2000: 7 years of drafting, 64 players selected, 3 Russians.
So, what's our final tally for Bryan Murray as a GM Since 1995?
- 15 years as an NHL GM
- 130 players selected
- 4 Russians (or, ~3% of Murray's total picks)
- Of those 4 Russians, NONE were 1st rounders.
Conclusions/ What we have learned: We have, as we can best extrapolate from existing data (and assuming Murray has established enough of a sample size to assume that his drafting trends will continue), a ~3% chance of drafting a Russian player in Ottawa while Murray is here. Even less of a chance of taking a Russian in the first round.
*NOTE*
This post ignores Murray's draft record with Detroit, which includes the following Russians:
- Vyacheslav Kozlov (3rd round, 1990)
- Dmitri Motkov (5th round, 1991)
- Igor Malykhin (7th round, 1991)
- Yuri Yeresko (7th round, 1993)
- Yan Golubovsky (1st round, 1994)
- Pavel Agarkov (6th round, 1994)
Why Murray has drafted a higher number of Russians in Detroit is a good question to ask. Was he more apt to be influenced by the Red Wings scouts because of their past successes in Russia? Did the team force Murray to draft more Rusians to appease the at-the-time UNHEARD of wealth of Russian talent? Did he just simply back off of drafting Russians slowly, over time? Tough to say, and even harder to prove any of those theories.
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