Bryan Murray: Probably Not Going To Draft A Russian

[BonkTastic]

Using the math above for Murray's Russians:

- From 1995-2010, there were 335 Russians drafted.
- 4200 total players drafted
- Russians accounted for ~8% of all players drafted.
- If each team took an equal number of Russians, each team would have drafted ~11 Russians.

Murray drafted 4 Russians in that time period, which means he's drafted only about 1/3 of the league average number of Russian players.

 

[Xspyrit]

Not only Murray isn't inclined to draft Russians, but the Sens organization has a lot of history with Russians picks too... Here's a post I made in another trade :

Why was Tarasenko undraftable again Murray?

List of Russians drafted by Ottawa

2007 Entry 60 2 Ruslan Bashkirov L Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]
2005 Entry 70 3 Vitali Anikeyenko D Yaroslavl-2 (Russia)
2005 Entry 98 4 Ilya Zubov C Cherepovets Jr. (Russia) 11 0 2 2 0
2005 Entry 186 6 Dmitry Megalinsky D Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [Russia]
2004 Entry 58 2 Kirill Lyamin D CSKA Moscow [Russia]
2004 Entry 122 4 Alexander Nikulin C CSKA Jr. (Russia) 3 0 0 0 0
2003 Entry 67 2 Igor Mirnov F Moscow Dynamo [Russia]
2003 Entry 166 5 Sergei Gimayev D Cherepovets Severstal [Russia]
2002 Entry 47 2 Alexei Kaigorodov C Magnitogorsk Metallurg [Russia] 6 0 1 1 0
2002 Entry 276 9 Vitaly Atyushov D Perm Molot [Russia]
2000 Entry 21 1 Anton Volchenkov D CSKA Jr. (Russia) 558 18 95 113 367
1999 Entry 269 9 Konstantin Gorovikov R St. Petersburg SKA [Russia]
1998 Entry 101 4 Petr Schastlivy L Yaroslavl Torpedo [Russia] 129 18 22 40 30
1998 Entry 223 8 Sergei Verenkin F Torpedo-2 Yaroslavl (Russia)
1993 Entry 157 7 Sergei Polischuk D Krylja Sovetov [Russia]
1992 Entry 2 1 Alexei Yashin C Moscow Dynamo [Russia] 850 337 444 781 401

Many of those guys could have been stars or very solid NHL players (or just NHL players) but it never materialized outside of Volchenkov and Yashin... I find it silly to see some Sens fans still asking about that... maybe young guys who haven't been around for too long?

This organization has too much history with Russians and is biased against drafting them, particulary with a higher pick... Call it the Yashin/Kaigorodov expirement if you want. They prefer to sign them as UFAs (or could even trade for them) when they are proven commodities or spend a lower pick for a high potential young Russian (3rd for Filatov), but you won't see them spending a 1st round pick on a Russian. I would be extremely surprised to see that

EDIT : I worded a few things badly... I have edited my post in blue

Everyone knows Murray has no problem with Russian players, just his reluctance to draft them.

Best way to summarize the situation in a short sentencce

 

[SevenOfSpades]

So, just for clarity's sake, are we theorizing that Murray is unlikely to draft any Russians, or just Russians playing in the KHL?

For instance, he might stay away from Nichushkin due to the risk of losing him to the KHL, but could he potentially take a chance on Zadorov, who plays for London?

 

[Xspyrit]

So, just for clarity's sake, are we theorizing that Murray is unlikely to draft any Russians, or just Russians playing in the KHL?

For instance, he might stay away from Nichushkin due to the risk of losing him to the KHL, but could he potentially take a chance on Zadorov, who plays for London?

That's a very good question, but IMO Zadorov would have to be the BPA by far for Murray to draft him. There might be a russian bias factor, KHL or not.

 

[source]

That's a very good question, but IMO Zadorov would have to be the BPA by far for Murray to draft him. There might be a russian bias factor, KHL or not.

Russian bias could account for Grigorenko falling like he did in the last draft. In other words, it's not just Murray.

Basically I think the analysis is too simplistic.

What is the proportion of Russians drafted in the 1st round? Do they tend to go quite high? When did Murray pick?

I think it's right to assume a general aversion to draft Russians (primarily due to the high salaries offered in Russia) which is pervasive league-wide. However in particular, I think Murray is inclined NOT to draft Russians in later rounds.

The 3% figure offered by the OP likely overstates this bias as it applies to Murray simply because he has not had the opportunity to draft the cream of the crop when it comes to Russians. If Murray has the chance to draft Zadorov and he is the BPA, I expect him to take Zadorov.

But if you're up early on Day 2 of the draft and waiting to cream your pants for a 2nd-7th round Russian draft pick, best to hold your horses because THAT is where the bias is actually reflected.

 

[R2010]

Russian bias could account for Grigorenko falling like he did in the last draft. In other words, it's not just Murray.

Basically I think the analysis is too simplistic.

What is the proportion of Russians drafted in the 1st round? Do they tend to go quite high? When did Murray pick?

I think it's right to assume a general aversion to draft Russians (primarily due to the high salaries offered in Russia) which is pervasive league-wide. However in particular, I think Murray is inclined NOT to draft Russians in later rounds.

The 3% figure offered by the OP likely overstates this bias as it applies to Murray simply because he has not had the opportunity to draft the cream of the crop when it comes to Russians. If Murray has the chance to draft Zadorov and he is the BPA, I expect him to take Zadorov.

But if you're up early on Day 2 of the draft and waiting to cream your pants for a 2nd-7th round Russian draft pick, best to hold your horses because THAT is where the bias is actually reflected.

I think that had Grigorenko fallen to us last year that we would have taken him. I somewhat remember in the videos leading up to the draft they were arguing about a guy who sounded like Grigs and Either murray or Dorion says if he drops to us we're taking him.

 

[source]

I think that had Grigorenko fallen to us last year that we would have taken him. I somewhat remember in the videos leading up to the draft they were arguing about a guy who sounded like Grigs and Either murray or Dorion says if he drops to us we're taking him.

That guy was definitely not Ceci, for sure.

My take on all this is that:

(1) Murray won't be shy to draft top Russian talent.
(2) Murray will likely only pick Russians in later rounds if the scouts have ranked them well above whatever draft position we are in at the time.

 

[Caje]

It was clear when we traded away the first rounder that ended up being Tarasenko that Murray has no interest in drafting Russians. And I don't blame him. The Murray-Russian issue has been discussed to death on this forum and I'm not sure there's anything really to add to it.

 

[SNAPshot]

The Murrays have an awesome draft record so far, I trust they will maintain the best player available mentality, no matter the nationality. In the recent years, our picks have been in the mid range, where there are no sure bets. Of couse the lack of agreement with the russian leagues hasn't helped, but I wouldn't call this a conspiracy.

 

[Scrub*]

Maybe he's not willing to draft them anymore but we did trade for Filatov.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Maybe he's not willing to draft them anymore but we did trade for Filatov.

And signed Gonchar...

The issue at hand is specifically Murray, drafting and Russians. Filatov is a non factor in this discussion.

 

[BonkTastic]

Basically I think the analysis is too simplistic.

I purposely left the analysis fairly ambiguous so that discussions like the one you made could be had.

Kind of like: "Hey, here's a bunch of raw data, interpret this as you will".

 

[Scrub*]

And signed Gonchar...

The issue at hand is specifically Murray, drafting and Russians. Filatov is a non factor in this discussion.

Filatov isn't Russian or wasn't acquired by Murray ?

The issue is really drafting OR acquiring young Russians because they don't work out to NHL potential for us, but yet, after we decided to trade for Rundblad instead of draft Tarashenko, we still decided to trade for another unproven Russian player in Filatov a year later.

Gonchar was/is already an established NHL defenceman but we haven't given up on Russian players altogether since we just acquired another one last season.

It's pretty much the same thing weather we drafted or traded for the young guy and right now we gave up a 3rd round pick for nothing , it would seem.

 

[source]

I purposely left the analysis fairly ambiguous so that discussions like the one you made could be had.

Kind of like: "Hey, here's a bunch of raw data, interpret this as you will".

To be fair, you did admit to purposefully omitting details of Murray's drafting in Detroit.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Muckler's scouts wasted 10 picks on Russians, most of whom didn't even bother coming over the pond in an attempt to make the NHL.

I still don't understand how people can question this team's no-Russian policy when it comes to drafting.

 

[BonkTastic]

To be fair, you did admit to purposefully omitting details of Murray's drafting in Detroit.

Oh yes, absolutely. Not trying to hide that, either.

Admittedly, I thought those years were
a) too old to be considered, and more importantly:
b) I think the era, when discussing Russian draft picks, was unique: the Curtain had just fallen, and teams were drafting historic numbers of Russians because it was new and exiting... ESPECIALLY the Red Wings. Everyone wanted the next Bure or Fedorov, and were chasing ghosts at the draft because drafting Russian was a "trend" at the time, as evidenced by the record number of Russians drafted in 1992.

Also, IMO, the scouting in Russia was so sketchy in the early 90's, guys were getting drafted on a lot less information than they would be just a few years later, once proper communities were formed.

Also (part 2): I think that "Murray drafting more Russians for Detroit" was a product of a Red Wings organizational mandate, rather than a desire for Bryan to draft them. This point is strictly my opinion, which I am happy to put open to an honest debate, but I think the 15 years that follow his time with the Red Wings is enough statistical proof of this to at least entertain the idea that this is a legitimate possibility.

 

[Back in Black]

Muckler's scouts wasted 10 picks on Russians, most of whom didn't even bother coming over the pond in an attempt to make the NHL.

I still don't understand how people can question this team's no-Russian policy when it comes to drafting.

Can't say I blame him!

I'm no G.M. or expert but If I had the first draft pick, and a Russian was projected to go first, I would gladly package him up and see who offers what for his services, get rid of him, and thank god I wouldn't have to worry about the after-effects down the road!

Go ahead, call me Don Cherry!!!!

 

[aragorn]

There are a lot of reasons not to draft a Russian but if a Russian is the BPA as decided by the scouting staff, than why wouldn't he? If there are two players of equal skill or two players that the scouts like I would assume they would take the non- Russian because of the risks with drafting Russians & our history otherwise, I still think they take the BPA.

 

[backdoorpass]

only way they take a russian is if he is really special or very north american that you know he wont go to khl (burmistrov)