News Article: Bruins #1 in Contract Efficiency

[Dr Hook]

From The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn :

Here’s how each team stacks up in regard to the efficiency of all the contracts they currently have signed.
1. Boston Bruins

Last year: 5th

The team with the two best deals in the league naturally comes out on top. It wasn’t all that close. David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand provide Boston with immense surplus value, but the team has three other deals in the “A” range that help too. Patrice Bergeron’s deal is right there in value and only in a lesser standing due to a shorter term. Ditto Charlie McAvoy, the team’s top defender. Matt Grzelcyk isn’t a household name, but he can provide immense value if he’s moved up the lineup, especially if he gets a crack on the top power play in the absence of Torey Krug. Add Craig Smith’s excellent deal to that and the Bruins are getting a lot for a low price.

After moving David Backes, the team is also low on millstones, with only a couple of problematic contracts. That’s something nearly every team has, and when a team is getting such immense surplus value at the top of the lineup it certainly matters a lot less. The Bruins were best in surplus value and cost per win and second in positive value probability. Elite.

Click to read more...

 

[UncleRico]

I was told Charlie coyle contract was a steal. Why is it in red?

 

[BlackFrancis]

The odder thing to me is 40 games of Par Lindholm being worth $1.1M.

 

[Dr Hook]

I was told Charlie coyle contract was a steal. Why is it in red?

His metrics- you'd have to read the whole thing to see the methodology (I didn't post because of fair use)

 

[Dr Hook]

@UncleRico Here is the snippet which I think is okay to post:

Each team was graded based on the surplus value they bring in per player (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

From The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn :

Here’s how each team stacks up in regard to the efficiency of all the contracts they currently have signed.
1. Boston Bruins

Last year: 5th

The team with the two best deals in the league naturally comes out on top. It wasn’t all that close. David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand provide Boston with immense surplus value, but the team has three other deals in the “A” range that help too. Patrice Bergeron’s deal is right there in value and only in a lesser standing due to a shorter term. Ditto Charlie McAvoy, the team’s top defender. Matt Grzelcyk isn’t a household name, but he can provide immense value if he’s moved up the lineup, especially if he gets a crack on the top power play in the absence of Torey Krug. Add Craig Smith’s excellent deal to that and the Bruins are getting a lot for a low price.

After moving David Backes, the team is also low on millstones, with only a couple of problematic contracts. That’s something nearly every team has, and when a team is getting such immense surplus value at the top of the lineup it certainly matters a lot less. The Bruins were best in surplus value and cost per win and second in positive value probability. Elite.

That guy's name can't be real.

 

[BruinDust]

I don't know. How much stock can you put in a ranking that basically says Charlie Coyle's contract stinks, while giving positive results to Ander Bjork, Nick Ritchie and Par Lindholm.

 

[Bumper]

Par Lindholm is an extremely effective player. the casual fan not grasping this is understandable, but it shouldn't lead to lashing out against those that see it for what it is.

 

[HustleB]

How does Wagner come out at -6.3 M on a contract that only pays 4.2 M. I mean he’s not my favorite player and he might be getting 30-40% more then fair value but sheesh seems like he must of kicked someones dog right before stealing his lunch money and girlfriend.

 

[Bumper]

I would probably have only picked Moore and Wagner to put in red, but this thing makes lots of sense to me. maybe Kuraly, too, as he has fallen off quite a bit. I think it overrates Pastrnak enough to point it out, which makes me wonder how it would have shown Krug. it really bothers me to keep seeing such things without Chara mentioned. I would think it'd be time to show Lauzon, too.

 

[BruinDust]

Par Lindholm is an extremely effective player. the casual fan not grasping this is understandable, but it shouldn't lead to lashing out against those that see it for what it is.

Yeah, that's why Cassidy healthy scratches him half the time.

A lot of die-hard fans can see what Par Lindholm is. A marginal NHL player.

 

[BruinDust]

How does Wagner come out at -6.3 M on a contract that only pays 4.2 M. I mean he’s not my favorite player and he might be getting 30-40% more then fair value but sheesh seems like he must of kicked someones dog right before stealing his lunch money and girlfriend.

I don't know exactly what the authored used to develop his metrics, but looks like a lot of drivel to me upon first glance.

 

[Dr Hook]

Here is the further breakdown of the numbers, which partially answers why Coyle was given a C:

"The main goal is looking at what teams have on the books. What a player has already done holds no merit. They may have been worth their deal as a whole and been excellent value prior, but that may not matter going forward. Future value means age is exceptionally important in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more years left offer a larger opportunity to compound value, good or bad. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection, which depends on the size of the sample the projection. Longer term means that uncertainty increases too.

Each contract was graded based on where a player’s combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of Nov. 3."


Obviously there are problems with this, just like anything that purports to rate or value players based on advanced metrics.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Unpopular reality, Coyle is a slightly better Chris Kelly who like Kelly cashed in and is overpaid.

Like Kelly he's a good mismatch at 3C, but if he's your 2C you're in trouble

 

[BlackFrancis]

Par Lindholm is an extremely effective player. the casual fan not grasping this is understandable, but it shouldn't lead to lashing out against those that see it for what it is.

Not a whole of lashing out going on that I can see, but then I'm a life-long champion of internet violence, so I can see things the proles might miss.

 

[bruins19]

Unpopular reality, Coyle is a slightly better Chris Kelly who like Kelly cashed in and is overpaid.

Like Kelly he's a good mismatch at 3C, but if he's your 2C you're in trouble

Two different players in different roles. Coyle is much better offensively, carrying and protecting the puck, and I think there is more to come in terms of improvement. I liked Kelly, and think he brought a lot more value in terms of his defensive skill. Kelly also had tons of heart. Any guy who keeps playing with a broken leg is all in for his team.

 

[Kegs]

Two different players in different roles. Coyle is much better offensively, carrying and protecting the puck, and I think there is more to come in terms of improvement. I liked Kelly, and think he brought a lot more value in terms of his defensive skill. Kelly also had tons of heart. Any guy who keeps playing with a broken leg is all in for his team.

I think it was Campbell that broke his leg and finished the shift.

 

[Gordon Lightfoot]

This is great, can't wait for the parade!

Edit: to be clear, I'm just messing around. This is a good thing.

 

[PlayMakers]

Unpopular reality, Coyle is a slightly better Chris Kelly who like Kelly cashed in and is overpaid.

Like Kelly he's a good mismatch at 3C, but if he's your 2C you're in trouble

That’s like saying Grzelcyk and McQuaid are similar simply because they had similar points in a similar role.

I did not like Kelly, I thought of him as a great fourth and center but always felt he was playing above his station when they used him at 3c.

On the other hand, I’m a big fan of Coyle, I think he is a 2C who’s numbers are deflated by playing with guys who are either struggling or finding their way; Bjork, Kuhlman, Richie... Every time he is on the ice he does something positive and is terrific at creating offensive zone time. He also steps up his game in the playoffs.

 

[neelynugs]

contract efficiency: A
drafting: D
pro scouting/trades: D
scouring NCAA for free wallets: A

 

[bruins19]

I think it was Campbell that broke his leg and finished the shift.

Thanks, Kegs. I stand corrected. It was Campbell who finished the shift. Kelly broke his leg, but did it going down in a heap vs Dallas. Still think Kelly was a character guy, but Campbell - also a character guy - playing with a broken leg takes the cake.

 

[ON3M4N]

That’s like saying Grzelcyk and McQuaid are similar simply because they had similar points in a similar role.

I did not like Kelly, I thought of him as a great fourth and center but always felt he was playing above his station when they used him at 3c.

On the other hand, I’m a big fan of Coyle, I think he is a 2C who’s numbers are deflated by playing with guys players who are either struggling or finding their way; Bjork, Kuhlman, Richie... Every time he is on the ice he does something positive and is terrific at creating offensive zone time. He also steps up his game in the playoffs.

Coyle just turned 28yr old and entering his 9th season. His career production puts him at at 40pt center. Even when you look at him in MIN vs BOS, his PGP is close:

MIN - 0.51 PGP
BOS - 0.47 PGP

Seeing as the numbers are close, would that imply that Coyle's career production is deflated because he's never had good linemates? or could it just be that Coyle is a 40pt center? I personally think he's just a 40pt center, whose an great #3C and a serviceable #2C in a pinch.

 

[loosemoose]

Coyle is a good player, but he's definitely not a 2C on a serious cup contending roster. I'm happy that they have him, since they need every bit of secondary scoring they can get, but if he has a fairly typical aging curve his contract isn't going to look pretty in 3-4 years. The fact that his contract is the "worst" they have right now says more about the rest of the team. Well aside from John Moore, whose contract was a head scratcher for me from day one.

 

[BruinDust]

Coyle just turned 28yr old and entering his 9th season. His career production puts him at at 40pt center. Even when you look at him in MIN vs BOS, his PGP is close:

MIN - 0.51 PGP
BOS - 0.47 PGP

Seeing as the numbers are close, would that imply that Coyle's career production is deflated because he's never had good linemates? or could it just be that Coyle is a 40pt center? I personally think he's just a 40pt center, whose an great #3C and a serviceable #2C in a pinch.

Depends on your definition of #2 Center. Looking at Coyle's production, half-a-ppg puts him solidly among the Top 60 centers. If you took all the centers league wide and distributed them evenly he's a No.2 guy. But we (fans) have come to think of a No.2 center as a guy who could be a No.1 on some teams because a lot of the best teams have historically had essentially two No.1 centers production wise.

 

[ON3M4N]

Depends on your definition of #2 Center. Looking at Coyle's production, half-a-ppg puts him solidly among the Top 60 centers. If you took all the centers league wide and distributed them evenly he's a No.2 guy. But we (fans) have come to think of a No.2 center as a guy who could be a No.1 on some teams because a lot of the best teams have historically had essentially two No.1 centers production wise.

Right he's a number 2 on a bad team, not a cup contender. A #2 on a serious cup contender is usually is normally closer to a top 30 scorer.

And interesting name I saw around Coyle when I looked up Coyles numbers over the last 3 years is a former Bruin. In fact Coyle has 1 more points than this former Bruin, however Coyle played roughly 400 more minutes. Now I dont think anyone would call this former Bruin a 2nd liner......


That player is Danton Heinen