Confirmed with Link: Briere to Colorado for PAP + 2015 5th

[Freudian]

http://flamesnation.ca/2014/6/27/nhl-draft-pick-value-review

This graph is using some different methodologies the regressions on draft pick value. It illustrates my point. As you get further back in the draft, it become much harder to find these diamonds in the rough. The difference between 15-30 is much greater than the difference between 45-90 and in some methodologies than 120/150...

The difference between a late 2nd and a 3rd is definitely there, but the difference between an early 2nd and a late 2nd is a larger difference.

I think you can read that in different ways. My view is that a late second is worth more than half of a mid first round pick means second rounders are very valuable.

 

[henchman21]

I think you can read that in different ways. My view is that a late second is worth more than half of a mid first round pick means second rounders are very valuable.

You could also say that late 1sts are just not worth much, and that moving into the top 10 using a combo is picks is the real way to get value, or to move back and gain as many picks in the ~40/50-90/120 range as you can. It is a very interesting look at historical draft pick value.

 

[Freudian]

You could also say that late 1sts are just not worth much, and that moving into the top 10 using a combo is picks is the real way to get value, or to move back and gain as many picks in the ~40/50-90/120 range as you can. It is a very interesting look at historical draft pick value.

Basically pick 1-5 are very valuable and there isn't that much difference in NHL production between pick 6-10 and pick 15-30 in the long run.

I can't remember where I read a breakdown of the value of picks from between 2001-09 or something like that. I was surprised how little value, relatively speaking, picks 6-10 had. Of course it might be a bit of randomness too, since there are a lot of unusually bad picks in that range in that decade.

 

[henchman21]

Basically pick 1-5 are very valuable and there isn't that much difference in NHL production between pick 6-10 and pick 15-30 in the long run.

I can't remember where I read a breakdown of the value of picks from between 2001-09 or something like that. I was surprised how little value, relatively speaking, picks 6-10 had. Of course it might be a bit of randomness too, since there are a lot of unusually bad picks in that range in that decade.

GMs tend to start reaching once the first tier of players is off the board and going for players they like. There are countless examples throughout history with every team. This leads to a lot of boom or bust types.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Asset management IS very important and we shouldn't give away 2nd round pick easily however people here seem to forget two very important facts about the Bera trade:

1. He was not on the market. Therefore you usually have to pay a bit more if you are after a specific player not on the market because you are dealing in a position of weakness compared to the other GM.

2. By the time we made the trade CAL already knew it was going to be a late 2nd round pick. I don't think many people here would be happy if Sakic/Roy traded Aitto or Pickard for a late 3rd. I'm ok with the late 2nd for Bera considering he had NHL experience and Allaire obviously wanted him having worked with him before.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Can I add a third? Aittokallio was out with a head injury at that time too and Jiggy was very questionable. We were one Varly groin pull away from looking at Pickard/Patterson in the playoffs. So maybe they acted in desperation because they were at the time fairly desperate.

 

[Foppa2118]

Can I add a third? Aittokallio was out with a head injury at that time too and Jiggy was very questionable. We were one Varly groin pull away from looking at Pickard/Patterson in the playoffs. So maybe they acted in desperation because they were at the time fairly desperate.

I still haven't found much reason that made sense. Was there any way the Avs were making it anywhere if something happened to Varly? You could put a shoe in the goal crease and the outcome would have been the same.

They were concerned about injuries but not with regard to forward depth, which was a clear issue at the deadline, and ultimately was a big reason they lost in the 1st round.

Plus, how often do pending UFA backup/prospect goalies (whatever you want to call his status at the time) re-sign with their club. I still think Burke swindled them and acted as if they were going to re-sign him.

That's more the reason for the trade, because Allaire was high on him, and they didn't want to lose him after Edmonton got Scrivins. I really doubt the Flames would have preferred Berra and Ramo to Hiller and Ramo.

 

[tigervixxxen]

At the time PA and Mitchell were healthy but yes in hindsight they should have brought in forward depth.

I'm not defending the trade entirely, just that they were a bit desperate. They didn't want to trade for a guy they couldn't sign, which is why it's my theory that Scrivens said he wasn't interested more than LA wouldn't trade him to us. But they felt like they needed someone at the time. They absolutely were screwed without Varly but when selling the "we are trying to win" image to the fans potentially having your 4th string goalie handle the load doesn't send the right message either. Should they have traded a lesser pick for someone cheaper and then went after a FA for free, yeah in hindsight that's probably a better idea. But they wanted to go after Berra in FA anyway so if they could pay up to get him right away and solve two problems at once then they were ready to do that.

 

[InjuredChoker]

At the time PA and Mitchell were healthy but yes in hindsight they should have brought in forward depth.

depth was medicore at best even when they were. anytime someone like cliche is regular, you know you don't have good depth.

but what is done is done.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

At the time PA and Mitchell were healthy but yes in hindsight they should have brought in forward depth.

I'm not defending the trade entirely, just that they were a bit desperate. They didn't want to trade for a guy they couldn't sign, which is why it's my theory that Scrivens said he wasn't interested more than LA wouldn't trade him to us. But they felt like they needed someone at the time. They absolutely were screwed without Varly but when selling the "we are trying to win" image to the fans potentially having your 4th string goalie handle the load doesn't send the right message either. Should they have traded a lesser pick for someone cheaper and then went after a FA for free, yeah in hindsight that's probably a better idea. But they wanted to go after Berra in FA anyway so if they could pay up to get him right away and solve two problems at once then they were ready to do that.

They were planning on picking a bust in the 2nd round anyway, so trading that pick for Berra is no big deal.

 

[Foppa2118]

At the time PA and Mitchell were healthy but yes in hindsight they should have brought in forward depth.

I'm not defending the trade entirely, just that they were a bit desperate. They didn't want to trade for a guy they couldn't sign, which is why it's my theory that Scrivens said he wasn't interested more than LA wouldn't trade him to us. But they felt like they needed someone at the time. They absolutely were screwed without Varly but when selling the "we are trying to win" image to the fans potentially having your 4th string goalie handle the load doesn't send the right message either. Should they have traded a lesser pick for someone cheaper and then went after a FA for free, yeah in hindsight that's probably a better idea. But they wanted to go after Berra in FA anyway so if they could pay up to get him right away and solve two problems at once then they were ready to do that.

Don't even need hindsight. A few of us were yelling for some forward depth at the deadline, but they got a depth goaltender. It was obvious they needed depth up front, and that there would be more options for a backup later in the summer.

They had been relatively lucky most of the year. They never had multiple guys out for long periods of time. Then they lost two of their centers in the top 9, and PAP still wasn't 100%.

 

[freeboy]

Well its " he looked good to our scouts in past training ", that seemd to pull wieght for the trade. That is goalie trade, not pap trade.
In regard to pap going away, it seems that the brass are looking to model the team into something they where not last year and pap did not fit... or maybe Im all wet.
Breire certainly looks small, lets hope he does not fail to survive the meat grinder our conference has become.

 

[Steerpike]

Can this conversation depart from euligies about 5th round picks and return to Briere perhaps?

The last time this guy was up for a contract he put up up 95 points. This is his last chance to cash in on free agency so he better damn well perform. The Avs trading for his last year is genius. He also scored 30 points in 23 playoff games just 4 years ago.

 

[the_fan]

I like Briere, and if nothing else, he can still be clutch in the playoffs

 

[Flanagan]

Can this conversation depart from euligies about 5th round picks and return to Briere perhaps?

The last time this guy was up for a contract he put up up 95 points. This is his last chance to cash in on free agency so he better damn well perform. The Avs trading for his last year is genius. He also scored 30 points in 23 playoff games just 4 years ago.

And that same season, Sakic put up 100 points. That was a long time ago and he hasn't played at anything close to that level in years.

I think the most we can expect out of him is ~45 points, and I'm being optimistic.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Can this conversation depart from euligies about 5th round picks and return to Briere perhaps?

The last time this guy was up for a contract he put up up 95 points. This is his last chance to cash in on free agency so he better damn well perform. The Avs trading for his last year is genius. He also scored 30 points in 23 playoff games just 4 years ago.

I didn't mind the trade one bit although, I'm not quite as optimistic as you.

As for the bolded part though...I used to be able to touch my toes just 4 years ago. Time's a ***** and I'm not sure I would ever use a 4 year old stat to back up a hockey player's projected performance (especially a player who is already 36.)

 

[Foppa2118]

If the Avs trade O'Reilly for a D man, and don't get a top 6 forward back, he'll probably play a top 6 role.

Tangs will likely shift to Dutchy's line with Iginla, and Briere would play on the right side with Mack and Landy. I actually think there's a chance he could put up some good numbers with those two, it seems like a good fit for some reason.

 

[Steerpike]

When was Parenteau an alternate!?

 

[tigervixxxen]

probably preseason

 

[Foppa2118]

When was Parenteau an alternate!?

I don't remember it in the regular season. Might have been pre season when they don't dress everyone. Tanguay wore an A in the pre season for this reason.

 

[InjuredChoker]

roy doesn't look happy with PAP wearing an 'A'.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Feel bad for PA. He simply didn't fit the system and looked like a bad hockey player because of it. He has all the offensive talent in the world and I think it will show in Montreal next year.

But man is he ever bad in his own end. He has to be one of the worst in the league.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Feel bad for PA. He simply didn't fit the system and looked like a bad hockey player because of it. He has all the offensive talent in the world and I think it will show in Montreal next year.

But man is he ever bad in his own end. He has to be one of the worst in the league.

He will do well in Montreal. If Healthy I can see him posting 60 points.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think there's a pretty strong correlation between the Sacco era of no identity and sloppy two way play vs Roy's ability to get the forwards to play a strong committed two way game.

PA looked great under Sacco who let him do whatever he wanted in the 125 feet leading up to the blueline as long as he was scoring in the offensive zone. As soon as Roy made a point to teach his team how to "track" and had a veteran that didn't seem too interested, he became a much different player.

Also I wonder how good PA's conditioning was. He's an average skater on his best days, so I wouldn't be surprised if the extra skating he was having to do trying to backcheck, led to his turnovers, and poor play in the offensive zone too. May be a reason why he plays more of a one way style. He might not get himself in the kind of condition needed to have to legs to play that way.

 

[henchman21]

Also I wonder how good PA's conditioning was. He's an average skater on his best days, so I wouldn't be surprised if the extra skating he was having to do trying to backcheck, led to his turnovers, and poor play in the offensive zone too. May be a reason why he plays more of a one way style. He might not get himself in the kind of condition needed to have to legs to play that way.

I don't think it is conditioning so much as pure skating ability (or lack of it). PAP worked his ass off to get back after a couple knee injuries this year ahead of schedule. Somebody who doesn't put in the work off the ice doesn't do that. PAP is just naturally a very poor skater and has no defensive hockey sense.