Confirmed with Link: Briere to Colorado for PAP + 2015 5th

[AslanRH]

Outside of O'Reilly, what success have they had with 2nd rounders? Bigras looks good, but still has a ways to go. Elliott may be on his last breath with this team. Pickard looks to be the 4th or 5th goalie on the depth chart. Gaunce went backwards and got dealt. Delmas...yeah.

I don't think it's going to be hard to get that 2nd rounder back if they really want too.

Someone above said that the success from this last season has eliminated people's patience and it's true. Last year we were picking 1st overall and at rock bottom. It usually doesn't happen this quickly.

Getting that 2nd back will cost something, and Stuart was not worth a 2nd in just about everyone's eyes. Berra was a soon to be FA (and I supported that move, but said they overpaid)

Avs notable 2nd round picks outside of the "limited" success of ROR. Elliott, Pickard, etc are not even at the age where players of their age make an impact.

Stastny, Budaj (quality backup), Steve Moore (would have been a staple on the bottom 6). Factor in Boychuck and the fact that 2nds or the players taken in the 2nd can and have been be used in trades continually. Just because my dime is not worth your Quarter, I shouldn't just give my dime away thinking I can find a quarter on the street later if I need one.

 

[AslanRH]

There is an obvious direction. They are getting stop-gap vets to allow time for the kids to grow up and take over the team. While at the same time the vets mentor the kids currently on the team. The Avs are still rebuilding, but at the stage where they can gain playoff experience.

2nds are not nearly as valuable as people want to think they are. Last offseason Setoguchi was traded for a 2nd (now can't get a UFA deal). Tyler Kennedy was traded for a 2nd. Clowe was traded for a 2nd + 3rd + 5th (was conditional 2nd). Regehr was traded for 2 2nds. Murray was traded for 2 2nds. The value there is all over the board.

Gorges was traded for a 2nd. Vanek, a 2nd + minimal prospect. How many 2nds have been used to move up in the 1st?

They may not be gold, but they still have value and offer much more flexibility than a 1 year stopgap who could have likely gone for less.

 

[CB Joe]

The defense needed some help. If not Stuart, what other option would you be willing to take.

 

[henchman21]

Gorges was traded for a 2nd. Vanek, a 2nd + minimal prospect. How many 2nds have been used to move up in the 1st?

They may not be gold, but they still have value and offer much more flexibility than a 1 year stopgap who could have likely gone for less.

The value is all over the map. This last deadline was a buyer's market. Beyond that, you see 2nds being thrown around wildly all over the map. Gorges' contact was a big reason his value was down. For every 'good' trade that involves a 2nd round pick, you can find a 'bad' trade.

I'm not saying they don't have value, but that people overestimate the value of a late 2nd round pick. You can point to late 2nd round success that the Avs have had, but that was with a different scouting head. Pracey has yet to do well in the 2nd round past pick #33. He has only had moderate success past pick 33 in general. Barrie and to some extent Bournival are the only 2 real success stories. In order for the Avs to take the next step, they need to get better in the later rounds of the draft. IMO the last two years have been a big step in the right direction, but it is early.

This post done years ago illustrates my point: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=25218501&postcount=3

Once you get to about pick 45, it levels off quite a bit and the draft enters the hit or miss stage. One big reason teams are willing to throw around 2nd and 3rd picks like candy is that they are a relatively small risk compared to a 1st round pick, but still hold enough value to get deals done.

We simply don't know if Stuart could have gone for less, but he does offer maximum flexibility. He is only signed for 1 year on a deal that doesn't hurt the Avs cap wise and fits what they need. If he does well, they can re-sign him. If he does poorly, they can send him packing at the deadline or let him go in free agency.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

The best part of this thread is the people absolutely LOSING THEIR MINDS over the loss of a 5th round pick

 

[ABasin]

Outside of O'Reilly, what success have they had with 2nd rounders? Bigras looks good, but still has a ways to go. Elliott may be on his last breath with this team. Pickard looks to be the 4th or 5th goalie on the depth chart. Gaunce went backwards and got dealt. Delmas...yeah.

I don't think it's going to be hard to get that 2nd rounder back if they really want too.

Someone above said that the success from this last season has eliminated people's patience and it's true. Last year we were picking 1st overall and at rock bottom. It usually doesn't happen this quickly.

I believe when we discuss this topic, the gating factor isn't which 2nd round picks the Avs nailed, but which 2nd round picks could have reasonably been nailed as well. In other words, if the Avs missed with pick #50, but picks #52 and #55 turned out great, that 2nd round pick was still very valuable, but the Avs just blew the pick. The success of picks close to the actual pick are indicative of the value of the pick, IMO.

 

[JoemAvs]

I believe when we discuss this topic, the gating factor isn't which 2nd round picks the Avs nailed, but which 2nd round picks could have reasonably been nailed as well. In other words, if the Avs missed with pick #50, but picks #52 and #55 turned out great, that 2nd round pick was still very valuable, but the Avs just blew the pick. The success of picks close to the actual pick are indicative of the value of the pick, IMO.

For me it is asset value. I know people hate the term asset on here but it is what it is. I view future draft picks as currency. That turns into lottery tickets with different odds if unused.

Our prospect pool is pretty bad. Especially compared to cupcontenders like Chicago, LA and Anaheim. If you want to get to or stay at the top in the cap world, you need to manage the cap and your assets properly.

How does that work best? You identify your core, pay those guys what they are worth and try your best to create a good supporting cast year after year. If one of those non-core players is due to a raise you can not accomodate, you trade him for futures and replace him with cheap young talent from your prospect pool.

That is how you manage the cap nowadays. LA, Chicago, Boston (to some extent) and Anaheim have been doing this for years.

And come deadline you usually can easily afford to trade off some youth and talent for rentals or needed vets.
Remember. Picks (and to some extent) prospects are currency. If you are rich, you can afford to take a hit and pay up for the cup without it ruining your future chances.
If you are poor, you are screwed.

The Avs are rather poor right now. And trading off "currency" for vets that you will lose for nothing or at least see a decrease in value is not wise. Especially not when you pay more than sticker price for almost all of those guys.

Just does not bode well for the future.

 

[ABasin]

For me it is asset value. I know people hate the term asset on here but it is what it is. I view future draft picks as currency. That turns into lottery tickets with different odds if unused.

Our prospect pool is pretty bad. Especially compared to cupcontenders like Chicago, LA and Anaheim. If you want to get to or stay at the top in the cap world, you need to manage the cap and your assets properly.

How does that work best? You identify your core, pay those guys what they are worth and try your best to create a good supporting cast year after year. If one of those non-core players is due to a raise you can not accomodate, you trade him for futures and replace him with cheap young talent from your prospect pool.

That is how you manage the cap nowadays. LA, Chicago, Boston (to some extent) and Anaheim have been doing this for years.

And come deadline you usually can easily afford to trade off some youth and talent for rentals or needed vets.
Remember. Picks (and to some extent) prospects are currency. If you are rich, you can afford to take a hit and pay up for the cup without it ruining your future chances.
If you are poor, you are screwed.

The Avs are rather poor right now. And trading off "currency" for vets that you will lose for nothing or at least see a decrease in value is not wise. Especially not when you pay more than sticker price for almost all of those guys.

Just does not bode well for the future.

Absolutely agree. Great post.

Asset management most certainly matters. A lot, in fact.

 

[bohlmeister]

The best part of this thread is the people absolutely LOSING THEIR MINDS over the loss of a 5th round pick

Jamie Benn was a 5th round pick. So it is basically Briere for PAP and Jamie Benn.


Roy is such a moron.

 

[henchman21]

What team really has a great prospect pool at the end of a rebuild when the best players are graduating or have already graduated? The Avs best 'prospects' are established NHL players. If you looked at prospects as players 23 and under, the Avs would have one of the very best groups in the NHL (IMO it is at least top 3).

The Avs have taken a very large step forward in their prospect pool since Roy and Sakic have taken over. The 2013 draft is going to be very friendly to the Avs and I think the 2014 draft was filled with some safe players who may not be the most spectacular players, but a number will be in the NHL in some capacity. Along with that, they have made some decent UFA signings that are addressing needs in the organization. The Avs are at a point where they don't need top flight elite talent in the wings (except a top pairing potential defensemen... which they think they have in Bigras, so maybe they have that), they need talent that is safe to contribute in a middle 6/bottom 4 role. It takes time to re-stock the system, and IMO they have done a very solid job of that the past two seasons.

 

[AslanRH]

For me it is asset value. I know people hate the term asset on here but it is what it is. I view future draft picks as currency. That turns into lottery tickets with different odds if unused.

Our prospect pool is pretty bad. Especially compared to cupcontenders like Chicago, LA and Anaheim. If you want to get to or stay at the top in the cap world, you need to manage the cap and your assets properly.

How does that work best? You identify your core, pay those guys what they are worth and try your best to create a good supporting cast year after year. If one of those non-core players is due to a raise you can not accomodate, you trade him for futures and replace him with cheap young talent from your prospect pool.

That is how you manage the cap nowadays. LA, Chicago, Boston (to some extent) and Anaheim have been doing this for years.

And come deadline you usually can easily afford to trade off some youth and talent for rentals or needed vets.
Remember. Picks (and to some extent) prospects are currency. If you are rich, you can afford to take a hit and pay up for the cup without it ruining your future chances.
If you are poor, you are screwed.

The Avs are rather poor right now. And trading off "currency" for vets that you will lose for nothing or at least see a decrease in value is not wise. Especially not when you pay more than sticker price for almost all of those guys.

Just does not bode well for the future.

Agree, good post.

IMO the Avs should be using vets that are not in the long term plan to try and acquire picks, not the reverse.

This season if they are on the outside looking in (which I think they will be) I hope they can move the non-long term guys for something with future value. Maybe a team will want a Stuart, Briere, Hejda, McLeod, etc (if they wont be re-signed). Last year it couldn't be done due to their surprising success, so I don't blame them there (Stastny). Sign the stop gap vets through FA if needed to fill around the core is fine, and there seem to be a lot more 1 year deals being made now than in the past for those types of players so the flexibility remains. Avoiding giving up assets for them would seem reasonable.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

People do realize that this is just the start of Roy/Sakic's SECOND SEASON? They are slowly turning over the roster to what it needs to become in order to compete. People look at Jim Nill as the best GM this off-season but his defence is still full of holes and Lindback is a worse back up then Berra.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Yeah the prospect pool looks a lot better than it did this time last year. And I think Iggy will be total rental bait in year 3 of that deal. Could easily get some picks back that way.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

The Avs have looked to Europe more in the last 6 months than they have in the last 6 years. Let's not act like Roy and Sakic don't know the prospect pool and depth in the organization needs to be improved.

 

[Avs71]

Yeah the prospect pool looks a lot better than it did this time last year. And I think Iggy will be total rental bait in year 3 of that deal. Could easily get some picks back that way.

There is no way. The Avs are winning the Cup that season, and Landeskog is handing the Cup right to Iginla.

 

[tigervixxxen]

That too ^

Redmond is a player the Avs could have easily traded for and nobody would have been mad to give up picks for a NHL ready prospect with upside. Think about that.

 

[henchman21]

There is no way. The Avs are winning the Cup that season, and Landeskog is handing the Cup right to Iginla.

Along with the prior two seasons as well.

 

[Freudian]

On a pick by pick basis, it's not the end of the world but when you have a habit of starting to throw in extra picks in every trade suddenly you will have consecutive drafts with 4-5 picks instead of 7. That will leave a mark in your prospect pool.

 

[henchman21]

That too ^

Redmond is a player the Avs could have easily traded for and nobody would have been mad to give up picks for a NHL ready prospect with upside. Think about that.

If it was a 2nd people would be rioting.











Just giving some of you a hard time.

 

[JoemAvs]

On a pick by pick basis, it's not the end of the world but when you have a habit of starting to throw in extra picks in every trade suddenly you will have consecutive drafts with 4-5 picks instead of 7. That will leave a mark in your prospect pool.

Yup. That is why the Leafs have been the Leafs for the last decade. They just don't value draft picks enough and hand them out like candy and they never take a longterm approach.

Losing PAP and Stastny + 2 2nds and bringing in Iginla, Stuart, Berra and Briere is not a trade off that will look good in 2-3 years (when our contending window is supposed to open).

It might not be a downgrade right now. But it certainly will be a waste of assets down the road (unless we somehow win the Cup next year).

Assets that would eventually come in very handily in the future in a trade for the final piece we need to get over the hump (likely a top 4 LD).

We will have to hit a few homeruns in UFA or with our prospects to make up for it.

I like the Redmond signing. It was about the only thing they did so far that I appreciated. But we will see how this one turns out.
Redmond could very well take Elliotts spot and force us to lose him on waivers. And I believe that Elliott has more potential.

Hard to judge. Only time will tell.

 

[Foppa2118]

The value is all over the map. This last deadline was a buyer's market. Beyond that, you see 2nds being thrown around wildly all over the map. Gorges' contact was a big reason his value was down. For every 'good' trade that involves a 2nd round pick, you can find a 'bad' trade.

I'm not saying they don't have value, but that people overestimate the value of a late 2nd round pick. You can point to late 2nd round success that the Avs have had, but that was with a different scouting head. Pracey has yet to do well in the 2nd round past pick #33. He has only had moderate success past pick 33 in general. Barrie and to some extent Bournival are the only 2 real success stories. In order for the Avs to take the next step, they need to get better in the later rounds of the draft. IMO the last two years have been a big step in the right direction, but it is early.

This post done years ago illustrates my point: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=25218501&postcount=3

Once you get to about pick 45, it levels off quite a bit and the draft enters the hit or miss stage. One big reason teams are willing to throw around 2nd and 3rd picks like candy is that they are a relatively small risk compared to a 1st round pick, but still hold enough value to get deals done.

We simply don't know if Stuart could have gone for less, but he does offer maximum flexibility. He is only signed for 1 year on a deal that doesn't hurt the Avs cap wise and fits what they need. If he does well, they can re-sign him. If he does poorly, they can send him packing at the deadline or let him go in free agency.

I don't think it's fair to exclude picks like O'Reilly and Bigras as evidence of what kind of player Pracey can find just because they were early in the second.

If you're going to do that you have to include Barrie and Bournival who he found in the 3rd. Not to mention the jury is still out on Elliott as a mid 2nd rounder.

 

[henchman21]

I don't think it's fair to exclude picks like O'Reilly and Bigras as evidence of what kind of player Pracey can find just because they were early in the second.

If you're going to do that you have to include Barrie and Bournival who he found in the 3rd. Not to mention the jury is still out on Elliott as a mid 2nd rounder.

The jury is still out on the majority of Pracey's picks. Truth be told, we won't know how good the organization does at drafting in the late rounds for 3-4+ more years.

IMO it is fair because in the very top of the 2nd round, you can typically get players you grade out as 1st round sorts of players. On top of that, the tipping point of a draft where the talent levels you and you have to dig to find gems is normally in the 40-50 range. Finding quality players after that is fairly difficult. From 09 (when Pracey took over IIRC, either that or 08) it would be 2 hits out of 16 picks 09-11 after pick ~40. Not a bad track record, but not stellar either. You can dig back, but I have been saying for a long time that the Avs need to improve their late round drafting.

 

[Avs For Life]

The Avs have looked to Europe more in the last 6 months than they have in the last 6 years. Let's not act like Roy and Sakic don't know the prospect pool and depth in the organization needs to be improved.

This is true but for some reason they seem okay with throwing away 2nds like they are candy...

Thats my biggest issue so far. I will let the players we have picked up play out but I think dealing our seconds will hurt the depth of our prospect pool.

 

[henchman21]

http://flamesnation.ca/2014/6/27/nhl-draft-pick-value-review

This graph is using some different methodologies for the regressions on draft pick value. It illustrates my point. As you get further back in the draft, it become much harder to find these diamonds in the rough. The difference between 15-30 is much greater than the difference between 45-90 and in some methodologies than 120/150...

The difference between a late 2nd and a 3rd is definitely there, but the difference between an early 2nd and a late 2nd is a larger difference.

 

[DanishAvsfan]

For me it is asset value. I know people hate the term asset on here but it is what it is. I view future draft picks as currency. That turns into lottery tickets with different odds if unused.

Our prospect pool is pretty bad. Especially compared to cupcontenders like Chicago, LA and Anaheim. If you want to get to or stay at the top in the cap world, you need to manage the cap and your assets properly.

How does that work best? You identify your core, pay those guys what they are worth and try your best to create a good supporting cast year after year. If one of those non-core players is due to a raise you can not accomodate, you trade him for futures and replace him with cheap young talent from your prospect pool.

That is how you manage the cap nowadays. LA, Chicago, Boston (to some extent) and Anaheim have been doing this for years.

And come deadline you usually can easily afford to trade off some youth and talent for rentals or needed vets.
Remember. Picks (and to some extent) prospects are currency. If you are rich, you can afford to take a hit and pay up for the cup without it ruining your future chances.
If you are poor, you are screwed.

The Avs are rather poor right now. And trading off "currency" for vets that you will lose for nothing or at least see a decrease in value is not wise. Especially not when you pay more than sticker price for almost all of those guys.

Just does not bode well for the future.

Yes I absolutely agree with everything being said here.