Speculation: Braden Holtby

[txpd]

No... others and I are saying we wouldn't be surprised if the Caps choose the less expensive option in two years. Others and I are saying we'd be surprised if the Caps choose to extend Holtby with a long-term deal when he turns 30 years old because historically that hasn't worked out for teams. Others and I are saying who knows if Holtby is a Vezina-level goalie in two years.

Let me try this. If Holtby plays at career norms this season(Vezina finalist/strong playoffs), do you extend him or let him walk?

 

[StreetHawk]

Let me try this. If Holtby plays at career norms this season(Vezina finalist/strong playoffs), do you extend him or let him walk?

OVY in 202o turns 35 that September. How good he is then along with samsonovs development over these 2 years likely dictates what the caps do. If samsonov is developing well kind of hard to lock yourself for 6 years with holtby.

It’s more that they let him walk than trade him. Timing just doesn’t line up for samsonovs to have taken the job from holtby before his contract runs out.

 

[txpd]

OVY in 202o turns 35 that September. How good he is then along with samsonovs development over these 2 years likely dictates what the caps do. If samsonov is developing well kind of hard to lock yourself for 6 years with holtby.

It’s more that they let him walk than trade him. Timing just doesn’t line up for samsonovs to have taken the job from holtby before his contract runs out.

Coming off a 42 goal 34 year old season for Ovechkin and the team still a cup challenger with Kuznetsov and Backstrom at center, you walk away from a vezina level goalie at the top of his game? Would you sign that goalie for 6 years if it meant winning a cup in that first year?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Let me try this. If Holtby plays at career norms this season(Vezina finalist/strong playoffs), do you extend him or let him walk?

You keep asking questions like there aren't a ton of variables to consider. I would want to know what he's looking for in terms of $$ and length for his next deal. Is he looking for a 3 year deal or an 8 year deal? How many games did Samsonov play in this season, and how did he do? Does he look ready to be a bonafide #1 in 2020? What does Holtby's trade value look like with one year left on his contract? These situations aren't as black and white as you're making them out to be.

 

[Hivemind]

fine. Crawford is good. Better than Bryz or Howard or Schneider. Lets start with Crawford. Whats wrong with him? Jonathan Quick. Fleury to an extent. How many Vezina level cup winning goalies are there? How many have been allowed to walk in their prime?

First off, Crawford. Have you paid any attention to Chicago over the past year? He hasn't played since December and there's pretty significant questions regarding exactly when he will be able to play again (just returned to practice today) and if he can ever be that goaltender again. Ultimately, though, you're right in that this is one of the better long deals for a goaltender in the NHL, as it expires after next season and only takes him until age 36.

Jonathan Quick is about the best case scenario for a long contract, and even his has involved him fading from his Conn Smythe-form and a season basically lost to injury. He also still has five more years on his contract, all the way up to age 37, so there's significant concern it could go poorly later. Not to mention it's also a contract that is no longer legal under the current CBA, since it used its length to suppress the total cap hit.

Fleury's contract was such an albatross that Pittsburgh had to pay to guarantee that Vegas would pick him in the expansion draft. For the bulk of his contract he was a sieve and the biggest individual reason the Penguins didn't win more Stanley Cups. He had five different playoff campaigns with save percentages under 90%It wasn't until Matt Murray entered the picture that they were able to return to winning championships.

So we have Quick and Crawford as relative success stories (both involving a season lost to injury and with Quick's deal barely half over and plenty of time to change into another cautionary tale) and Fleury as another example of long-term investing in a goalie going poorly. It's pretty clear at this point that the bulk of the goalie deals over the past coupld decades have shown that signing up long-term to a goalie is not a wise investment and it has huge potential to backfire.

Also, peak Schneider was better than Crawford and arguably Holtby. The fact you're diminishing him isn't helping your argument.

 

[txpd]

You keep asking questions like there aren't a ton of variables to consider. I would want to know what he's looking for in terms of $$ and length for his next deal. Is he looking for a 3 year deal or an 8 year deal? How many games did Samsonov play in this season, and how did he do? Does he look ready to be a bonafide #1 in 2020? What does Holtby's trade value look like with one year left on his contract? These situations aren't as black and white as you're making them out to be.

I keep asking questions based on what we can talk about in this venue. Lets wait and see then. Done

 

[StreetHawk]

Coming off a 42 goal 34 year old season for Ovechkin and the team still a cup challenger with Kuznetsov and Backstrom at center, you walk away from a vezina level goalie at the top of his game? Would you sign that goalie for 6 years if it meant winning a cup in that first year?

That will be the decision won’t it...

What will the best decision be based on what the team is in 2020 to win another cup. Is their best shot in 2021-2022 or will it be later than that? Combination of how guys age and which new guys step up their games.

 

[Stuzchuk]

If Ilya Samsonov is all he's hyped up to be, then yeah, they'll likely look to move Holtby.

I also remember J. Markstrom & J. Bernier being hyped AF... top 25 prospect and all, mean while P. Rinne was a nobody

 

[txpd]

That will be the decision won’t it...

What will the best decision be based on what the team is in 2020 to win another cup. Is their best shot in 2021-2022 or will it be later than that? Combination of how guys age and which new guys step up their games.

Every year has a set of circumstances that you have to use to make decisions. They said the Oprik contract was bad. They said the Oshie contract was bad. They don't win the cup without Oshie. They are now saying the Carlson deal is bad. I am sure they will say the Holtby deal will be bad.

MacLellan and Fishman are pretty consistently good with the salary cap

 

[Silky mitts]

You keep asking questions like there aren't a ton of variables to consider. I would want to know what he's looking for in terms of $$ and length for his next deal. Is he looking for a 3 year deal or an 8 year deal? How many games did Samsonov play in this season, and how did he do? Does he look ready to be a bonafide #1 in 2020? What does Holtby's trade value look like with one year left on his contract? These situations aren't as black and white as you're making them out to be.

Also is there a work stoppage and does Seattle end up taking a guy that fixes a cap crunch.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Considering Holtby lost the starting job (at least temporarily) just a few months ago, I wouldn't rule anything out.

Maybe he'll never falter again and earn a long extension. Maybe Samsonov is a savant from the start and the Caps part with Holtby to save money.

If I had to guess today, I'd say he gets extended. But that's a pretty worthless guess since so much is up in the air for the medium term future of this team.

 

[Oddbob]

Do the Caps extend Holtby past '19-'20? Do they trade him? Does he make it to free agency? Which teams would go after him?

Seeing as they traded Grubauer, I can't imagine them not keeping Holtby, now!