Speculation: Braden Holtby

[Asheville]

Do the Caps extend Holtby past '19-'20? Do they trade him? Does he make it to free agency? Which teams would go after him?

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[solidprospect]

Could be difficult re-signing both Backstrom and Holtby. They also have to re-sign their entire bottom 6 before Holtby is ufa,or vice versa. Maybe they could move a 2nd line forward or defenceman if they need cap space.

Holtby would be the best goalie available that ufa year.

 

[Il Mediano]

If Ilya Samsonov is all he's hyped up to be, then yeah, they'll likely look to move Holtby.

 

[cupface52]

Two years is quite a bit of time for a goalie. Very, very few goalies remain elite for a long time. Lundqvist, Brodeur, Luongo, and possibly Rinne, are the only ones I can think of post lockout. The other top goalies tend to be at the top of their game for 5 or so years, then become average.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Can’t see the Caps giving Holtby term past this contract. He’ll be 30 when this contract expires and the organization is very high on Ilya Samsonov.

 

[Taytro]

Two years is quite a bit of time for a goalie. Very, very few goalies remain elite for a long time. Lundqvist, Brodeur, Luongo, and possibly Rinne, are the only ones I can think of post lockout. The other top goalies tend to be at the top of their game for 5 or so years, then become average.

I think were actually seeing the start of him becoming average. He had a statistical fall from grace last year in the regular season with dramatic changes to his GAA and save%. Even his playoff numbers fell off the last couple years.

Hes still a great goalie and no doubt someone would pay a premium to have him but I dont think he had too many more elite years ahead of him.

 

[Asheville]

I think were actually seeing the start of him becoming average. He had a statistical fall from grace last year in the regular season with dramatic changes to his GAA and save%. Even his playoff numbers fell off the last couple years.

Hes still a great goalie and no doubt someone would pay a premium to have him but I dont think he had too many more elite years ahead of him.

What's the reasoning? His acrobatic style? Just curious.

 

[txpd]

If Ilya Samsonov is all he's hyped up to be, then yeah, they'll likely look to move Holtby.

Both Varlamov and Nuevirth were drafted higher and supposed to be better than Holtby. If Samsanov is all he is cracked up to be, I am not sure he is better than Varlamov.

Look at the NHL.com stats breakdown for NHL goalies in the playoffs from Holtby's first playoffs. I believe has the best GAA and SV% of any goalie in that time period. He now has a cup to go with the stats and no one would suggest he was just a passenger on that run.

If he has another playoffs at his career norms, why would a team move on to an unproven player? If last regular season was the anomaly that his playoffs suggest and he is a Vezina finalist again. Why would a team move on to an unproven player?

 

[Il Mediano]

Why are you using their draft position as some kind of metric? That means nothing.

I know Holtby is great, but they need to save money where they can- that's why they'd do it. If you can get similar production in a position that only requires one quality player and save 5m (or whatever it would be) , you do it.

 

[txpd]

Can’t see the Caps giving Holtby term past this contract. He’ll be 30 when this contract expires and the organization is very high on Ilya Samsonov.

What about the Caps organEYEzation tells you that they will walk away from a core player in his prime? When was the last time they did that?

 

[txpd]

Why are you using their draft position as some kind of metric? That means nothing.

I know Holtby is great, but they need to save money where they can- that's why they'd do it. If you can get similar production in a position that only requires one quality player and save 5m (or whatever it would be) , you do it.

Why? He is a first round draft pick. The all he is cracked up to be is generated from that draft position. Much as it was with Varlamov.

The Caps salary cap guru has always found a way to keep the core of the team together. They traded Johansson and let Mike Green and Karl Alzner go. That's about it.

All things being equal to what they are now, I suggest the Caps will make their cap adjustments elsewhere.

 

[Il Mediano]

Why? He is a first round draft pick. The all he is cracked up to be is generated from that draft position. Much as it was with Varlamov.

No, it's not. Watch the guy play.

All things being equal to what they are now, I suggest the Caps will make their cap adjustments elsewhere.

That's fine. I think you're dead wrong. We'll see happens.

If I'm wrong, quote me sometime and I'll happily give you kudos.

 

[DrewGl]

Sans Ovi and Backstrom, depending on this years run, I think they have got what they wanted out of this core group. If he's asking for a ton of cash I can see them letting him go.

 

[txpd]

Sans Ovi and Backstrom, depending on this years run, I think they have got what they wanted out of this core group. If he's asking for a ton of cash I can see them letting him go.

Not sure I see this as the end of a core group.

 

[txpd]

No, it's not. Watch the guy play.



That's fine. I think you're dead wrong. We'll see happens.

If I'm wrong, quote me sometime and I'll happily give you kudos.

No need. Ive watched him play. Ive also gone thru lots of offseasons where people were convinced that the Caps would have to trade off RFA's that want a big contract or trade off others to make room for them. Same with pending UFA's. The Caps have found a way to keep Oshie and Carlson. The doom that people say is coming doesn't happen.

Maybe you are right this time.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think they keep him until he's somewhere around 34-40. The other thing that might likely happen is that Washington likes whoever is their new starter, for now we say Ilya Samsonov, is their new starter and Holtby wants to play more, then he gets traded or signs with a team in desperate need of a goaltender. But Holtby is the kind of goalie who could play till he's 40.

 

[Taytro]

What's the reasoning? His acrobatic style? Just curious.

No clue. I said statistically, just looking at his numbers. Nothing to do with his play (I only watch him when he comes to Ottawa).

 

[StreetHawk]

If they trust that sammy will be ready when holtbys deal ends they won’t lock themselves down to him. You’re aso looking at some type of ntc for a few years on any Holt by extension.

Question is when is Sammy ready for a 55 game regular season. He’s 21 now. I think he’s set to be their starter in the AHL right? So, really can’t be trading holtby in 2019 with Sammy having no experience in the NHL. Probably the best option is to ride out holtby in 19-20 with Sammy as his backup and then let Sammy have the reigns in 20-21.

Ovy turned 33 back in September. He’s under contract for 3 more years right? Might as well swing for the fences while you have him. And that means passing up on the assets for holtby in 2019-2020 season to ensure you have experienced goaltending.

 

[Holtbyisms]

All depends on what happens with samsonov and just howbgood he actually is. That and the team success. Be hard to move on from him of they win again in the next couple years considering he's already the franchises best goaltender in their history. And I expect to see his number go up one day.

 

[StreetHawk]

All depends on what happens with samsonov and just howbgood he actually is. That and the team success. Be hard to move on from him of they win again in the next couple years considering he's already the franchises best goaltender in their history. And I expect to see his number go up one day.

With samsonov they have an option to move On rather than locking themselves to a guy who would be will 31 when the regular season begins on his next contract. And that deal will be for like 6 years or longer. The remainder of his contract and samsonov development likely to not align where they can deal holtby. Sets up more of a passing of the torch once holtbys deal expires.

 

[habsgirl5000]

Do the Caps extend Holtby past '19-'20? Do they trade him? Does he make it to free agency? Which teams would go after him?

We should go after him and let price sit on the bench where he belongs

 

[StephenPeat]

I’m missing something here. Is Holtby an UFA today? Why are we even worrying about this. It’s pretty simple actually; the Caps keep Holtby until they have a better option at the NHL level. Samsonov is not that today and it remains to be seen if he ever will be. OV, Backstrom, Niskanen, and Orpik are all getting close to turning the page. There may be an Expansion Draft. Why is this thread a thing? It’s premature and there are ~100 things that could impact that decision that we simply cannot predict. So what’s the value in attempting so much projection? This exercise isn’t even academic, it’s asinine. Call us back in a minimum of 1 year.

 

[StephenPeat]

The facts are Tx is absolutely correct about the Caps management keeping the band together and maintaining the core at all costs. (Though I would add Semin to the list of those core players that were let go) I mean look at Holtby’s contract and the foresight that had to have coincidentallly worked out in the Caps favor. Holtby is signed not only for the season at hand but also for the next season. Samsonov is expected to break his teeth in the AHL this season with spot duty at the NHL level and possibly split-time as early as next season so why even consider this contingency until reality forces the Caps hand? The Caps have set themselves up for the perfect “passing of the torch” situation and if Samsonov is not the Real Deal they’ll simply resign Holtby and let Samsonov go his own way. I think losing trade value on Holtby or Samsonov two years down the line is approximately the farthest thing from Caps management’s priorities today.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I’m missing something here. Is Holtby an UFA today? Why are we even worrying about this. It’s pretty simple actuallly; the Caps keep Holtby until they have a better option at the NHL level. Samsonov is not that today and it remains to be seen if he ever will be. OV, Backstrom, Niskanen, and Orpik are all getting close to turning the page. There may be an Expansion Draft. Why is this thread a thing? It’s premature and there are ~100 things that could impact that decision that we simply cannot predict. So what’s the value in attempting so much projection? This exercise isn’t even academic, it’s asinine. Call us back in a minimum of 1 year.

I smell urine.....and breakfast cereal?

 

[StephenPeat]

I smell urine.....and breakfast cereal?

Some of us choose to live our lives on Earth while others will perpetually explore Uranus. I’ll stay grounded for now if you please.