Post-Game Talk: @boxcar65

[BlackDogg]

Oilers need to keep improving fast - the pacific is finally getting their legs under them.

 

[TKB21]

classic McJadedog...always seeing the worst in the team

In his Defence we’ve all seen how putrid the oilers have been the last two games. We’ve seen the exact same team with the same gutless efforts a lot in the last 10 years and I don’t blame a single person for shitting their pants when we string together a few stinkers in a row.

 

[joestevens29]

In his Defence we’ve all seen how putrid the oilers have been the last two games. We’ve seen the exact same team with the same gutless efforts a lot in the last 10 years and I don’t blame a single person for ****ting their pants when we string together a few stinkers in a row.

Except in that past we would've broken and probably lost 6-3 not won.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Except in that past we would've broken and probably lost 6-3 not won.

McDavid is really good.

What happens in games where he's not all world? Or when the goaltending doesn't put up stellar numbers?

At some point we need some secondary scoring.

 

[OldManBouchard]

I was very surprised at how many empty seats there were last night. Especially when the Oilers have been winning this season.

 

[snipes]

McDavid is really good.

What happens in games where he's not all world? Or when the goaltending doesn't put up stellar numbers?

At some point we need some secondary scoring.

Hall-Nuge-Neal

Dare to dream.

 

[Weitz]

4?!

Yeah but considering we scored 6 goals one has to figure the total of 4 HDSC for the OIlers is entirely whacked. How can the goals scored EXCEED the amount of scoring chances. Some of these metrics are just complete garbage in garbage out. Any bean counter that is tabulating less scoring chances than goals for a team is a flat out biased troll. Probably somebody from Toronto doing the math..

I don't doubt that Philly had around 16 scoring chances but the Oilers had closer to 10.

But the Oilers lineup shows why Corsi metrics of any kind don't tell the complete story and that is that talent scores better than anybody else. It doesn't matter how many shots or scoring chances, it matters who is getting them. For the Oilers all of Drai, McD, Nuge were looking dangerous last night and had several looks. The only Flyer feeling it last night was Voracek.

In anycase the Oilers had plenty of premium scoring chances in Chicago and got beat not being able to buy a goal. This game balances that out. It happens.

Getting outshot 52-23 is obviously a bad idea. But the team had played a fair amount of games over the last week and a half and basically a game every 2nd night. With injuries, new schemes, new coach learning and relearning their game it takes a while. This was a limited roster to begin with and its getting hammered with injuries. Its impressive that the team now has the savvy to be winning smart.

For instance the Oilers knew they didn't have their sea legs last night. You could see it. They were getting beat to pucks, and even our better players. But they were pouncing and thriving any chance they got. What the Oilers did do well is run some succesful counters and we're definitely gold in scoring against the flow goals.

But the first 5mins was pretty much all Oilers. We could have scored 3 in that span. By the time Philly found their game it could have been over and fairly ridiculous penalty calls gave Philly lots of chances in this game.

HDSC are defined as a shot or attempt that comes from a certain area.

Goals do not count.

Its simple counting.

 

[joestevens29]

McDavid is really good.

What happens in games where he's not all world? Or when the goaltending doesn't put up stellar numbers?

At some point we need some secondary scoring.

Oh I don't disagree, just saying they are somehow winning some games that they never could in the past.

I have to think around game 10-15 if things aren't panning out with our bottom 6 that we see changes.

Tippett and Holland didn't want to risk losing anyone on waivers until getting a better look at them. Sooner rather than later they will be looking at bringing someone up from the AHL. It's rather unfortunate that the Condors only play 1 game in 7 days, as I think 3 games in 4 days like next week would give the organization a real nice look to see what is happening down there.

 

[joestevens29]

HDSC are defined as a shot or attempt that comes from a certain area.

Goals do not count.

Its simple counting.

Seems kind of stupid, no? You can win the game by 5 goals, but lose the HDSC battle by 5 if the other team couldn't score.

 

[Weitz]

Seems kind of stupid, no? You can win the game by 5 goals, but lose the HDSC battle by 5 if the other team couldn't score.

So look at the high danger goals scored then?

Its a good measure to show how effective you are at limiting high quality chances. It can be used to help you determine how well you are doing.

None of these advanced stats are be all end all but they can all be combined to get a picture of how your team is doing.

 

[Fourier]

Yeah, this might be the "worst 6-1 team" that I can remember in a long, long time. Team needs to get their game together really fast here, otherwise we are going to get destroyed every night once we start playing playoff teams

Our schedule has been ridiculously easy so far. RIDICULOUSLY so. We haven't played a single game against a team that is in the top-15 of the league standings as of October 17th. The best team we've played is Vancouver, who is currently in 16th place. If we don't turn our game around really fast, we are going to get caved in really fast here.

This needs some context. The Rangers have played 3 games and are 2-1 with a goal differential of +5 in their other two games. The Islanders are 3-2 vs other opposition and they just beat the defending champs. Philly was 2-1-1 with a goal differential of +2 going into last nights game. Vancouver is 3-1 against teams not named Edmonton.

 

[Anarchism]

McDavid is really good.

What happens in games where he's not all world? Or when the goaltending doesn't put up stellar numbers?

At some point we need some secondary scoring.

Yep ...but your not likely to be happy soon...Holland looking for pieces from what we have now and will start playing guys from the farm after christmas ....maybe he will make one trade at the deadline....
If your thinking he will go out and buy a winger for the second line...or the fourth line even.....i wouldnt hold my breath....
If some team gets desperate enough....like the oil 2 years ago....

 

[Snowpants]

C'mon man, do you think Auston Matthews chose to have a large nose or have the genetics for premature balding? There's enough things that he did have a choice on to be mad at him for.

You would think with such big holes to get air to get his brain he would make smarter decisions but no

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Our echo chamber is the best echo chamber

 

[Drivesaitl]

HDSC are defined as a shot or attempt that comes from a certain area.

Goals do not count.

Its simple counting.

Its illogical that goals would not count among scoring chances in a tabulation of the same. Perhaps the stat should come with an * and large grain of salt in stating exactly what the metric is.

WHY minus the scoring chances that actually succeeded. To create statistical noise?

Would love to hear the explanation on how goals dont count. They are of course the results barometer of what occurs in a game.

It strikes me that not counting goals is asinine.

 

[Weitz]

Its illogical that goals would not count among scoring chances in a tabulation of the same. Perhaps the stat should come with an * and large grain of salt in stating exactly what the metric is.

WHY minus the scoring chances that actually succeeded. To create statistical noise?

Would love to hear the explanation on how goals dont count. They are of course the results barometer of what occurs in a game.

It strikes me that not counting goals is asinine.

Is a scoring chance a goal? Would you have had a chance if you were successful?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Seems kind of stupid, no? You can win the game by 5 goals, but lose the HDSC battle by 5 if the other team couldn't score.

Its incredibly stupid. Almost purposely so. The analytics community forever telling us theres more that goes on than goals, is excluding goals in metrics. lololol all day.

There is no reasonable explanation to exclude goals. If one pictures a Venn diagram of all HDSC some of those go in, most do not, but they are all WITHIN the circle. To say that actual goals are not HDSC is using a system of logic that hasn't been invented.

 

[joestevens29]

Its illogical that goals would not count among scoring chances in a tabulation of the same. Perhaps the stat should come with an * and large grain of salt in stating exactly what the metric is.

WHY minus the scoring chances that actually succeeded. To create statistical noise?

Would love to hear the explanation on how goals dont count. They are of course the results barometer of what occurs in a game.

It strikes me that not counting goals is asinine.

Seems stupid to me as well. Would I rather a guy with 50g and 20HDSC or would I want a guy with 20g, but 50 HDSC?

 

[joestevens29]

Its incredibly stupid. Almost purposely so. The analytics community forever telling us theres more that goes on than goals, is excluding goals in metrics. lololol all day.

There is no reasonable explanation to exclude goals. If one pictures a Venn diagram of all HDSC some of those go in, most do not, but they are all WITHIN the circle. To say that actual goals are not HDSC is using a system of logic that hasn't been invented.

Seems like a stat used by teams that are bad that can't score goals.

Oh don't worry we have a ton of HDSC, who cares that we can't score.

 

[oXo Cube]

Its illogical that goals would not count among scoring chances in a tabulation of the same. Perhaps the stat should come with an * and large grain of salt in stating exactly what the metric is.

WHY minus the scoring chances that actually succeeded. To create statistical noise?

Would love to hear the explanation on how goals dont count. They are of course the results barometer of what occurs in a game.

It strikes me that not counting goals is asinine.

HDSC are an objective measurement of shot distance. You have to be within a certain distance of the goal to record one. That's it.

They're worth tracking as statistically you are far far more likely to score from this range than anywhere else, but the name really needs a change because confusion like yours is incredibly common.

 

[snipes]

I’ve become more and more skeptical of analytics as the years have gone by.

Are they are an important tool you can use? Sure, there is utility in them.

But those spreadsheet nerds that think hockey is like baseball and they can moneypuck their way to understanding the nuances without actually watching the game are lying to themselves. Hockey is a fluid and transitional sport, baseball is a static sport its completely different.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Mikko Koskinen let in 3 goals and still improved his save percentage to .927

I'm going to agree with Tippett that Kosko was the main reason the Oilers won that game, especially with how he played in the first half of the game. If the Oilers are down 4-2 instead of up 2-1 early in the second, do they even score all those goals they did to go up 5-1?

 

[joestevens29]

I’ve become more and more skeptical of analytics as the years have gone by.

Are they are an important tool you can use? Sure, there is utility in them.

But those spreadsheet nerds that think hockey is like baseball and they can moneypuck their way to understanding the nuances without actually watching the game are lying to themselves. Hockey is a fluid and transitional sport, baseball is a static sport its completely different.

The real problem is there is a stat to prove anything you really want to.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Is a scoring chance a goal? Would you have had a chance if you were successful?

I can't comprehend your reply. Logically follow along with me. How can the vast majority of goals be scored without first being HDSC? Think about it. Of course goals are typically HDSC. There is no other logical conclusion. Not all goals arise from HDSC, but they typically do. Excluding all goals scored from the data collection creates more stat noise than including them would.

Are the analytics people over thinking this?

 

[Snowpants]

Its incredibly stupid. Almost purposely so. The analytics community forever telling us theres more that goes on than goals, is excluding goals in metrics. lololol all day.

There is no reasonable explanation to exclude goals. If one pictures a Venn diagram of all HDSC some of those go in, most do not, but they are all WITHIN the circle. To say that actual goals are not HDSC is using a system of logic that hasn't been invented.

That there is some one trying to tell you HSBC or whatever > actual goals and wins should tell you all you need to know

Garbage in indeed I will take the actual win over more scoring chances any say