Pre-Game Talk: boscar g3

[HisIceness]

Tomorrows siren sounders are Luke Kuechly, Christian McCaffery, and Rasheed Wallace

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

Tomorrows siren sounders are Luke Kuechly, Christian McCaffery, and Rasheed Wallace

Puck don't lie, baby!

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Not trolling, just a hockey fan. Appreciate that I didn't have to read the BS most fan bases throw out there. Stay classy Carolina!
You guys have at least half a dozen players I'd take any day of the week.

 

[barrykent]

I think we should go with Mac tomorrow - we've basically alternated between him and Petr all season (40 starts vs 33). We had a successful routine going - why not go back to it. While I don't hang either of these 2 L's on Peter, he did give up a few that you just can't (and he normally doesn't) give up. A score here and there often drives huge momentum changes. However, I haven't seen us look this bad on D in a long long time. We're turning the puck over and failing to clear the zone at the blink of an eye over and over - just things we haven't done. Get back to our game and we can play ourselves back into a series.

 

[tarheelhockey]

This doesn't make much sense. 89,9% is very good against Washington...especially considering how much of a joke the Canes PK is. Goalies averaged just 89% saves against Washington this season. Mrazek only allowed one weak goal all series long...the Backstrom goal in game 1.

I was unable to watch game 2. Wanted to watch it afterwards but didn't feel like it given the result.
In game 1 though, Mrazek was very good. The Canes lost because of the Refs and because McGinn covered nobody on the PK leading to two PP-goals for the Bruins. So even if the game 2 loss was Mrazeks fault, you don't change your goalie because of one bad game.
Also, let's not forget that McElhinney let in a very weak goal against the Isle. Granted, the series was pretty much over by then...but still.

.899 isn’t good against anyone. Holtby posted a .914 while losing the series. A goalie flying under .900 over seven games is a huge red flag, even if he’s finding ways to pull off wins. One of those things, the sv% or the Ws, is going to give.

But the point isn’t that Petr needed to be pulled. The point is that he was successful all season in a rotation. As soon as we hit the playoffs, the rotation stopped. His numbers plunged immediately. Within two weeks he was injured. Now he’s starting to fall completely apart, back to where he was a year ago. I would get it if McElhinney had been bad. But he was fantastic. There was no reason to stop giving him his turn, especially for Game 2 of this series.

It doesn’t make sense to me that as soon as we hit the playoffs we anointed Mrazek a straight-up #1. That’s not what has worked for this team to date, and it sure has the appearance of derailing him individually. It’s maybe a coaching lesson for RBA, don’t get to the playoffs and start trying to imitate other teams.

 

[Primetime8]

.899 isn’t good against anyone. Holtby posted a .914 while losing the series. A goalie flying under .900 over seven games is a huge red flag, even if he’s finding ways to pull off wins. One of those things, the sv% or the Ws, is going to give.

But the point isn’t that Petr needed to be pulled. The point is that he was successful all season in a rotation. As soon as we hit the playoffs, the rotation stopped. His numbers plunged immediately. Within two weeks he was injured. Now he’s starting to fall completely apart, back to where he was a year ago. I would get it if McElhinney had been bad. But he was fantastic. There was no reason to stop giving him his turn, especially for Game 2 of this series.

It doesn’t make sense to me that as soon as we hit the playoffs we anointed Mrazek a straight-up #1. That’s not what has worked for this team to date, and it sure has the appearance of derailing him individually. It’s maybe a coaching lesson for RBA, don’t get to the playoffs and start trying to imitate other teams.

Hindsite is always 20/20. Mrazek established himself as the clear number 1 the second half of the year while Curtis appeared to hit the "backup goalie playing too many games" wall.

From Feburary 1st through the end of the year Mrazek went 13-4 with a .938 save percentage. McElhinney went 9-5-1 with a .910 save percentage in the same timeframe

Also, it's not like Mrazek wasn't coming off of a huge game 7 win and then a shutout before he got hurt. Mrazek had a great 1.5 games to start the Islander series (.976 sv%) and Curtis had a great 2.5 games to end it (.947 sv%).

You also say his numbers "plunged" which is true now due to his struggles against Boston, but he was 5-1 over his last 7 starts with a .928 Save Percentage before this series. I'm not saying he should or should not start going forward, but with your theory the Canes don't beat the Caps.

Edit: Islanders scored the least amount of goals of any team to make the playoffs - Caps were 5th in the league in scoring.

 

[Drivebytrucker]

.899 isn’t good against anyone. Holtby posted a .914 while losing the series. A goalie flying under .900 over seven games is a huge red flag, even if he’s finding ways to pull off wins. One of those things, the sv% or the Ws, is going to give.

But the point isn’t that Petr needed to be pulled. The point is that he was successful all season in a rotation. As soon as we hit the playoffs, the rotation stopped. His numbers plunged immediately. Within two weeks he was injured. Now he’s starting to fall completely apart, back to where he was a year ago. I would get it if McElhinney had been bad. But he was fantastic. There was no reason to stop giving him his turn, especially for Game 2 of this series.

It doesn’t make sense to me that as soon as we hit the playoffs we anointed Mrazek a straight-up #1. That’s not what has worked for this team to date, and it sure has the appearance of derailing him individually. It’s maybe a coaching lesson for RBA, don’t get to the playoffs and start trying to imitate other teams.

CMAC was great in Game 2 coming off the bench no doubt.

Games 3 and 4 the Islanders were just shit.

Scott Darling could have won those games

 

[tarheelhockey]

Hindsite is always 20/20.

It’s not hindsight. That decision was pretty clearly questionable the second it was announced.

Mrazek established himself as the clear number 1 the second half of the year while Curtis appeared to hit the "backup goalie playing too many games" wall.

Mrazek had a stronger finish, but he absolutely did not establish himself as a clear #1 in any conventional sense of that term. At no point was he given the crease to own, it was a steady platoon rotation the entire time.

The entire season, only one Canes goalie started 4 games in a row. That goalie was Scott Darling. The last time Mrazek took 3 starts was when Mac was injured. Once he returned, it was a clockwork rotation. Then we got to the playoffs and we’re a one-goalie team. If Petr hadn’t been injured we would likely have still not yet seen Mac in this playoffs. That makes no sense to me.

You also say his numbers "plunged" which is true now due to his struggles against Boston, but he was 5-1 over his last 7 starts with a .928 Save Percentage before this series.

You could also look at it as: he had 2 shaky games, then 2 great games, then a nightmare, then 3 good games, then got hurt, then came back with 2 shaky games.

That’s the kind of inconsistency that’s dogged him since Detroit. The solution was to stop over-feeding him games, take some pressure off, and keep his job simple. It worked splendidly until we stopped doing it, and here’s the inconsistency again. It’s a self inflicted wound at this point.

I'm not saying he should or should not start going forward, but with your theory the Canes don't beat the Caps.

Based on what? Maybe Mac wins an extra game early and we close out the series in 6, who the hell knows.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Scott Darling could have won those games

Now you're just being ridiculous.

 

[bleedgreen]

It’s not hindsight. That decision was pretty clearly questionable the second it was announced.



Mrazek had a stronger finish, but he absolutely did not establish himself as a clear #1 in any conventional sense of that term. At no point was he given the crease to own, it was a steady platoon rotation the entire time.

The entire season, only one Canes goalie started 4 games in a row. That goalie was Scott Darling. The last time Mrazek took 3 starts was when Mac was injured. Once he returned, it was a clockwork rotation. Then we got to the playoffs and we’re a one-goalie team. If Petr hadn’t been injured we would likely have still not yet seen Mac in this playoffs. That makes no sense to me.



You could also look at it as: he had 2 shaky games, then 2 great games, then a nightmare, then 3 good games, then got hurt, then came back with 2 shaky games.

That’s the kind of inconsistency that’s dogged him since Detroit. The solution was to stop over-feeding him games, take some pressure off, and keep his job simple. It worked splendidly until we stopped doing it, and here’s the inconsistency again. It’s a self inflicted wound at this point.



Based on what? Maybe Mac wins an extra game early and we close out the series in 6, who the hell knows.

I agree. I never thought Mrazek really distanced himself over Mac or became a true number one. He got hotter towards the end, but to me Mac never dropped off.

Mrazek at his worst is too aggressive and comes way too far out. That means he’s at his worst right now. When he was at his hottest he was able to rein it in, and this was his most consistent year for that. Last game looked like classic Mrazek. I think they need the calmness that Mac brings. I view them as close to equal, and when we are in panic mode he’s the top choice for me.

 

[DougieSmash]

Making the switch from Mrazek to McElhinney won’t solve the Hurricanes’ problems - TheHockeyNews

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Making the switch from Mrazek to McElhinney won’t solve the Hurricanes’ problems - TheHockeyNews

It might be the deciding factor, but it doesn’t solve the mammoth problem called special teams.

 

[raynman]

For those that have been going to games this postseason is parking still $20?

 

[Primetime8]

For those that have been going to games this postseason is parking still $20?

Yes, and they even charge to park now in the lot that used to be free across the street. The closest free parking now is in that NC State parking area on the corner of Trinity and Blue Ridge.

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

I agree. I never thought Mrazek really distanced himself over Mac or became a true number one. He got hotter towards the end, but to me Mac never dropped off.

Mrazek at his worst is too aggressive and comes way too far out. That means he’s at his worst right now. When he was at his hottest he was able to rein it in, and this was his most consistent year for that. Last game looked like classic Mrazek. I think they need the calmness that Mac brings. I view them as close to equal, and when we are in panic mode he’s the top choice for me.

I guess the issue is if Rod sees us as "in panic mode".

We'll see soon enough. I'll be fine with either decision.


ETA: In his post-practice interview, Rod said something to the effect of "if we switch it might not be for the reason you think."

This could be complete mind--f-ery lol or maybe he's hinting that the public reason for Mrazek not starting would be injury or rest. We'll see.

 

[Hinterland]

.899 isn’t good against anyone. Holtby posted a .914 while losing the series. A goalie flying under .900 over seven games is a huge red flag, even if he’s finding ways to pull off wins. One of those things, the sv% or the Ws, is going to give.

But the point isn’t that Petr needed to be pulled. The point is that he was successful all season in a rotation. As soon as we hit the playoffs, the rotation stopped. His numbers plunged immediately. Within two weeks he was injured. Now he’s starting to fall completely apart, back to where he was a year ago. I would get it if McElhinney had been bad. But he was fantastic. There was no reason to stop giving him his turn, especially for Game 2 of this series.

It doesn’t make sense to me that as soon as we hit the playoffs we anointed Mrazek a straight-up #1. That’s not what has worked for this team to date, and it sure has the appearance of derailing him individually. It’s maybe a coaching lesson for RBA, don’t get to the playoffs and start trying to imitate other teams.

It's very good because it's better than the regular season average against Washington. Mrazek did it in a playoff series and despite a horrific PK.
Holtby's 91,4% are exactly what Goalies averaged against the Canes. Since he did it in a playoff series we can say that he was good, too but unlike Mrazek he didn't beat the goalies regular season numbers.

Mrazek's numbers dropped because he played a series against Washington not because he played badly. The only goalie with good numbers against the Caps this season is Bob and he did it for the first time in his career. As a goalie it's almost impossible to have good numbers against the Caps unless your teams PK is epic. Canes PK isn't even average. It's bad and it's only getting worse the more McGinn plays. Mrazek hasn't made a simple mistake ever since game 1 against the Caps. Maybe he did in game 2 against Boston...I haven't seen it. But I wouldn't turn to MacElhinney because of one bad game.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

It might be the deciding factor, but it doesn’t solve the mammoth problem called special teams.

The Canes had a good year. Went farther than anyone imagined they would. But special teams crippled the season and post season. And whoever is in charge of that powerplay should be fired. I don't care who it is.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's very good because it's better than the regular season average against Washington. Mrazek did it in a playoff series and despite a horrific PK.
Holtby's 91,4% are exactly what Goalies averaged against the Canes. Since he did it in a playoff series we can say that he was good, too but unlike Mrazek he didn't beat the goalies regular season numbers.

Mrazek's numbers dropped because he played a series against Washington not because he played badly. The only goalie with good numbers against the Caps this season is Bob and he did it for the first time in his career. As a goalie it's almost impossible to have good numbers against the Caps unless your teams PK is epic. Canes PK isn't even average. It's bad and it's only getting worse the more McGinn plays. Mrazek hasn't made a simple mistake ever since game 1 against the Caps. Maybe he did in game 2 against Boston...I haven't seen it. But I wouldn't turn to MacElhinney because of one bad game.

The regular season average includes 15 teams that didn't make the playoffs. That's not where you set the bar for a playoff performance. In May, we aren't holding our goalies against the standard of Chad Johnson and Aaron Dell.

Here are the starting goalies from this year's playoffs:

Tuukka Rask .937
Robin Lehner .936
Ben Bishop .933
Sergei Bobrovsky .925
Philipp Grubauer .925
Frederik Andersen .922
Mike Smith .917
Connor Hellebuyck .913
Jordan Binnington .909
Marc-Andre Fleury .909
Matt Murray .906
Martin Jones .905
Pekke Rinne .905
Petr Mrazek .894
Andrei Vasilevskiy .856

Every one of those goalies also played against good teams. Most of their numbers are stained by a losing effort resulting in elimination. Aside from the guy who was on the receiving end of a nightmarish first-round sweep, Mrazek's numbers are easily the worst.

That's not acceptable. I don't know how it can possibly be spun as acceptable. It's some Cam Ward type logic to get from a .894 to "oh he's overperforming expectations, let's blame the PK". Our goalie has to be better than that to win consistently, and he was better than that right up until he was given 8 straight starts after not having more than 3 straight all season long.

 

[Hinterland]

The regular season average includes 15 teams that didn't make the playoffs. That's not where you set the bar for a playoff performance. In May, we aren't holding our goalies against the standard of Chad Johnson and Aaron Dell.

Here are the starting goalies from this year's playoffs:

Tuukka Rask .937
Robin Lehner .936
Ben Bishop .933
Sergei Bobrovsky .925
Philipp Grubauer .925
Frederik Andersen .922
Mike Smith .917
Connor Hellebuyck .913
Jordan Binnington .909
Marc-Andre Fleury .909
Matt Murray .906
Martin Jones .905
Pekke Rinne .905
Petr Mrazek .894
Andrei Vasilevskiy .856

Every one of those goalies also played against good teams. Most of their numbers are stained by a losing effort resulting in elimination. Aside from the guy who was on the receiving end of a nightmarish first-round sweep, Mrazek's numbers are easily the worst.

That's not acceptable. I don't know how it can possibly be spun as acceptable. It's some Cam Ward type logic to get from a .894 to "oh he's overperforming expectations, let's blame the PK". Our goalie has to be better than that to win consistently, and he was better than that right up until he was given 8 straight starts after not having more than 3 straight all season long.

These numbers are irrelevant and you know it. Each of those goalies (with exactly one exception only for this season...Bob's career numbers are bad, too) has bad numbers against Washington not just this season but way beyond. They would have had bad numbers against Washington in a playoff series this year, too.

The Canes had a very good PK and I believe it once was near the top of the league. Then they started to lean on McGinn and the number started to drop. They still finished the regular season 8th with 81,6%. During the playoff the number came down to 69,8%...despite fixing the PK temporarily when they took off McGinn for a while. When your team sucks on the PK, there's nothing you can do as a goalie. Especially against top powerplays like Boston's or Washington's. Game 1 was a typical showing by McGinn who gave up two goals himself. Mrazek had zero chance to make a save in those situations. Until the last game that I haven't watched, Mrazek really only gave up one bad goal. Most goals he allowed happened because of individual mistakes by guys in front of him.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Guaranteed 5-1 loss.

 

[tarheelhockey]

These numbers are irrelevant and you know it. Each of those goalies (with exactly one exception only for this season...Bob's career numbers are bad, too) has bad numbers against Washington not just this season but way beyond. They would have had bad numbers against Washington in a playoff series this year, too.

The Canes had a very good PK and I believe it once was near the top of the league. Then they started to lean on McGinn and the number started to drop. They still finished the regular season 8th with 81,6%. During the playoff the number came down to 69,8%...despite fixing the PK temporarily when they took off McGinn for a while. When your team sucks on the PK, there's nothing you can do as a goalie. Especially against top powerplays like Boston's or Washington's. Game 1 was a typical showing by McGinn who gave up two goals himself. Mrazek had zero chance to make a save in those situations. Until the last game that I haven't watched, Mrazek really only gave up one bad goal. Most goals he allowed happened because of individual mistakes by guys in front of him.

Let me get this straight.

You believe, in total seriousness, that Brock McGinn's PK positioning is a more important factor in this team's outcomes than the goaltender's overall save percentage?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Until the last game that I haven't watched, Mrazek really only gave up one bad goal. Most goals he allowed happened because of individual mistakes by guys in front of him.

Addressing this, because it is important.

Saves Mrazek reasonably could have made with solid positioning and play-reading:

Washington, Game 1, 1st period
Straight-up sniped from a distance

Washington, Game 1, 1st period
Launches a huge rebound into the slot, opens up his body trying to get back in position

Washington, Game 2, 1st period
Not a bad goal per se, but he played it very poorly and you expect that save the majority of the time

Washington, Game 4, 2nd period Ovechkin buries one-timer for PPG
Watch his footwork on this goal. Particularly the behind-the-net angle.

Washington, Game 5, 2nd period Backstrom nets second goal
Again not a bad goal because of the defensive breakdown. But sweet jesus did he ever just give Backstrom the entire net there. He turned a 50% save opportunity into a 0% chance of making it happen.

Washington, Game 5, 3rd period Ovechkin's blistering PPG
I mean, it's that Ovie shot so no big deal to write it off. But give that behind-the-net angle a pause and look at where he sets himself for the save. This was the second time Ovechkin shot the puck into a half-empty net because Mrazek was lined up off-center.

Boston, Game 1, 1st period Kampfer nets first playoff goal
Granted it's a good scoring opportunity. Petr lines up slightly off-angle, and Kampfer still manages to shoot it directly at him. The puck goes right through. That's a "we need that save in a playoff game" situation.

Boston, Game 1, 3rd period Johansson ties game with PPG
Again, not a terrible goal against or anything like that. But any goalie coach will tell you, Petr's over-reliant on his athleticism here. The choice of a kick-save on the first shot costs him his mobility, and rather than keep his torso upright he chooses to lay out with a prayer. That's the goalie equivalent of the defenseman making a lunging poke-check on a 2-on-1. He might still have given up a goal in any case, but he's not even giving himself a chance with this save selection.

Boston, Game 2, 1st period Grzelcyk opens the scoring
This is just a rotten goal, no way around it. Mrazek got ripped on national TV because of this.

Boston, Game 2, 2nd period Clifton scores first NHL goal
Let's grant that somehow, this would have been a goal in any case. Not holding the outcome against him. But watch Mrazek on this play. That's a guy who has completely lost his net, maybe on more than one level. An NHL goaltender should never look like this in the year 2019, this is some 80's style Reggie Lemelin action.

Boston, Game 2, 2nd period Grzelcyk scores PPG on backhand
This shot looks a lot more dangerous than it actually is. Again, poor footwork and losing his angle give Grzelcyk a whole bunch of unearned net to shoot at.

Do I expect a goalie to make all of these saves? Not realistically. But a good goalie absolutely makes most of these saves. Allowing about one "coulda had" goal per game is a serious handicap on the team and a sign of underperformance.

So no, I don't buy that he's only really had 1 goal marked against him the whole playoffs. It's been a steady drip of plays that leave you saying "wellllllll, I guess that's not a bad goal, he was only a little off his angle but look at what the defense was doing, it would be nice if he'd tighten up and make that save but it's not really his fault because so-and-so wasn't quite in the right position on defense...".

You know who else we said that about? Cam Ward. Every other day for about a decade. And it cost this franchise dearly, because there were too many people (including me) who were slow to call it for what it was: a goalie with broken fundamentals, taking wild risks to make the highlight reel but producing an overall poor body of work because even a moderately good scoring opportunity would open him up for a disproportionate chance of a goal.

With all of that, I'm still not saying he shouldn't play. I'm saying he had already been badly overplayed by the end of the Washington series and was showing the effects of that; that it was a risk to go with him for Boston Game 1 over Mac, but I get it; and that it was outright foolish to stick him back in there for Boston Game 2. This one-goalie system isn't how we got great performances out of him this spring, he didn't perform at a level that forced Rod's hand after Game 1, and Mac had more than earned the opportunity. Putting Petr back out there was dumb, both from a team standpoint and an individual standpoint. We needed to steal a game in Boston and that wasn't a step in the right direction.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Forslund is of the opinion Mrazek is gonna be the starter but thinks it should McE, as does everyone else.

The Wake Up Call – John Forslund – Time is now for a goalie switch. – 730 The Game ESPN Charlotte

 

[FreshSeabass]

For the bulk of you here ready to fire Mrazek to hell i think this is a pretty good break down of the goals scored and how things could be fixed.
Bourne: Why Carolina skaters are trying to do too much and...

I'm not against changing the goalie for tonight. I'm just not of the opinion that its because Mrazek is bad or is the reason we lost game 1 or 2 and RBA is of the same opinion.

Also looking forward to watching everyone turn on mac in .5 seconds if the same team play for games 1 and 2 continues.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I'll be surprised if Mac gets the start after hearing Forslund.