Boy, this is a fun thread...
I'm pretty far from 'sky is falling' mode. With that said, I was lucky enough to only put about 20% of my attention into the 1st period because I was at dinner with some family. So I largely missed the worst of the game.
I'm not seeing a huge difference in our actual play between the last week of this team vs the stretches where the offense sputtered last year. We've buried a couple fewer chances than we were during rough patches last year, but simultaneous injuries to Buch and Saad is as big of a loss to the top 6 than we faced all season last year. Losing your #1 and #2 at any position at the same time throws your lineup into chaos. There is plenty of room for improvement and we certainly aren't playing well. But we had stretches of awful even strength play last year too.
From what I saw of the 1st, we looked awful. We only put in a 40 minute effort (and arguably less than that), but we did that all the time last year. At the end of the day, we put up 40 shots, had an xGF total of 3.55 and a 5 on 5 xGF total of 2.25. The team needs to play better than they have the last few days, but I'm not seeing a wholesale difference in our play from last year other than simply not finishing.
I fully and completely disagree that the loss of Perron is fueling the struggle to score at 5 on 5 right now. He was tied with Parayko for 10th on the team in 5 on 5 points last season with 27. His twelve 5 on 5 goals was tied for 8th and 6 primary assists was tied with Mikkola for 13th. By any metric, he just wasn't an offensive driver at 5 on 5 last year. He was an absolute stud on the PP and was really good at 4 on 4 and 3 on 3. He was a complete (offensive) passenger at 5 on 5. Coincidentally, he also has zero even strength production in his last 3 games.
I absolutely expect our D to continue contributing at or near their current level offensively. Faulk won't finish as a point per game player and he won't score 3 goals every 5 games. But he is going to keep activating offensively and putting up points. He'll cool down, but Krug will certainly improve on his zero point pace at 5 on 5 and I think we can expect Leddy to have a couple points every 5 games. I expect Parayko to score more than the 16 points he's on pace for. For all the talk about overpaying for D and their issues defensively, this group is specifically built to jump into the offensive zone. They aren't just ripping shots from the point and getting lucky. Leddy, Faulk, and Krug are consistently activating and playing like a 4th forward in the offensive zone. That will continue.
I'm far from panicking unless/until we get word that Buch and/or Saad are out long term. I've been a big supporter of the "Buch drives whatever line he's on" argument and Saad is a fantastic compliment to ROR. They are the two best defending wingers on the team and losing both at the same time forces everyone to take on new responsibilities. We need one back and are have to try to tread water until that happens.