Half-Assed GDT: Blues vs Florida

[Linkens Mastery]

maybe he's using one of those plastic sticks we had as kids way back when..

anything heavier than a tennis ball and they flexed like crazy lol

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

I'm WAY older than that lol

ours weren't near as nice

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I'm WAY older than that lol

ours weren't near as nice

Hilarious enough, that's one of the new Bauer Sticks for ice hockey.

 

[Majorityof1]

I don't fully disagree about Perunovich, but I do think that you need to talk about the positives along with the negatives. He has been on the ice for 8 goals for and 2 against. Going into the Florida games, his xGF% was 50.8% and he was positive on every metric but high danger chances (which was still real bad). He isn't capable of defending well enough to prevent the other team's possessions from becoming dangerous. But I'm not sure whether he is at fault for the lack of high danger chances for. We generate a lot of medium danger chances with him on the ice, but few high danger chances. In an 11 game sample, I'm not sure how much of that is his lack of offensive ability vs the other 4 players not executing.

Again, I mostly agree. he has been a liability defensively lately and has lots to work on. But all of his underlying numbers besides high danger chances were very good before the entire team got cratered by the Panthers, so I want to see more before I say that he isn't good enough offensively at 5 on 5. The 8 goals for that he's been on the ice for at 5 on 5 is 4th on the team since he was called up. With the sample size at just 11 games, I'm not willing to abandon my eye test that tells me he is really good when we have possession of the puck.

FWIW, I thought Krug was much worse than Perunovich last night. Both were awful at defending when the Panthers had the puck, but Krug also seemed determined to give them the puck at every opportunity. I thought last night was Krug's worst game of the season by a mile.

In a vacuum, Perunovich's play could be excusable and he could be worth keeping up. However, the way our roster is constructed, he becomes problematic. We need to shelter both him and Krug, and cannot shelter both. Krug right now is better at generating offense 5v5. So if we have to sacrifice one, it should be Perunovich. Part of the reason Krug was worse last night was he was out in tougher situations. He was out in tougher situations because Perunovich took his sheltered role. Having 50% or even slightly better advanced stats isn't impressive when you are out there primarily in offensive opportunities.

If we have to risk having him out on defense where he is directly contributing to goals against, we need him to directly contribute to goals for as well. Just being on the ice for goals is not good enough. I don't remember any plays where he did something great and though, man that other player blew it. I remember several plays where he screwed up defensively and was bailed out though. To be fair, I do remember good defensive plays as well. But the bad ones far outweigh anything good I have seen him do 5v5. There may be some bias in that though so I could be focusing my memory on the bad. But the low HD chances and even possession stats when he is so heavily sheltered don't do much to convince me my eye test and memory are wrong

 

[ort]

Several kids on my son's hockey team are using those sticks now. What is that gap supposed to do? It feels very gimmicky and silly.

 

[ort]

SLINGTECH: A REVOLUTIONARY BLADE TECHNOLOGY

Featuring one of the most revolutionary innovations in the history of hockey sticks, the Bauer Nexus ADV features the new Slingtech Technology, a hole found in the stick’s blade. The basic principal of Slingtech Technology and the hole in the blade is to create a slingshot effect when releasing the puck. The hole in the blade separates the blade into two independent sections that work in conjunction with each other. The top section is still & rigid which keeps the blade stiff while the bottom section is flexible, allowing the blade to bend and spring, creating the slingshot effect. The edges along the hole as well as the outer edge of the blade has been reinforced to maximize durability to maintain an elite level feel, performance & durability.

Sounds like a bunch of poop to me. I guess we'll see if everyone is using them in a few years or if it's just a gimmick.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Sounds like a bunch of poop to me.

Haha, basically just a marketing ploy. Imho

 

[BlueMed]

I want to believe.

My only issue is their inconsistency.

They will have gutsy games against good teams (VGK, Avs, TBL, Panthers) and then implode against weak teams (Yotes, DET, Hawks).

It's hard to figure out this team. Maybe this is the process they need to go through to be a Cup worthy team. However, I don't think we will see another story like '18-'19 (from last to Cup). Because of this I'd like to see more consistency.

It's not that difficult though. The Blues look at their opposition beforehand (like any team does) and they play up or down to their competition. It's human nature. Unlike the Hitchcock Blues, this Blues team is talented enough to do it and still be a competitive team and they know that. Just like in school, most people don't start studying for a test scheduled 4 weeks away. People usually start studying 3-4 days in advance. It's a form of pacing that is engrained in our subconsciousness and psyche.

 

[Brian39]

In a vacuum, Perunovich's play could be excusable and he could be worth keeping up. However, the way our roster is constructed, he becomes problematic. We need to shelter both him and Krug, and cannot shelter both. Krug right now is better at generating offense 5v5. So if we have to sacrifice one, it should be Perunovich. Part of the reason Krug was worse last night was he was out in tougher situations. He was out in tougher situations because Perunovich took his sheltered role. Having 50% or even slightly better advanced stats isn't impressive when you are out there primarily in offensive opportunities.

If we have to risk having him out on defense where he is directly contributing to goals against, we need him to directly contribute to goals for as well. Just being on the ice for goals is not good enough. I don't remember any plays where he did something great and though, man that other player blew it. I remember several plays where he screwed up defensively and was bailed out though. To be fair, I do remember good defensive plays as well. But the bad ones far outweigh anything good I have seen him do 5v5. There may be some bias in that though so I could be focusing my memory on the bad. But the low HD chances and even possession stats when he is so heavily sheltered don't do much to convince me my eye test and memory are wrong

I don't see Krug generating any offense at 5 on 5. He has been completely lifeless offensively for well over a month now. His last point at 5 on 5 came in our 5th game of the season on 10/25/21. His lone even strength point since then came at 4 on 4. He's on a 10 game scoreless streak at even strength and a 15 game scoreless streak at 5 on 5. Perunovich isn't lighting it up at even strength (2 points in 11 games), but he's doing better than Krug and Krug's drought started well before Perunovich starting eating into his role.

Krug is going through a major cold streak. He has 2 total points in his last dozen games. There is a good case to be made that his body of work suggests he is better offensively at 5 on 5 than Perunovich, but he absolutely hasn't been in the time that both have been on our roster.

Discussing usage, Krug had two giveaways on the PP that were easily worse than anything Perunovich did last night. The bulk of Krug's missteps last night were fully unforced errors that had nothing to do with usage. I get what you're saying from a macro level, but last night was not a result of Krug having a tough assignment. He was dreadful in all situations.

Any discussion about sending down Perunovich at the moment is moot. We don't have enough healthy D to do so. With that said, I actually prefer our team running 11F and 7D when healthy. We have enough forward talent in the middle/bottom 6 to soak up the minutes and the 7 D allows us to use our numerous 1 dimensional D men to their strengths (Faulk and Parayko are the only D on the roster who I think are above-replacement level in all situations).

 

[Blueston]

I don't see Krug generating any offense at 5 on 5. He has been completely lifeless offensively for well over a month now. His last point at 5 on 5 came in our 5th game of the season on 10/25/21. His lone even strength point since then came at 4 on 4. He's on a 10 game scoreless streak at even strength and a 15 game scoreless streak at 5 on 5. Perunovich isn't lighting it up at even strength (2 points in 11 games), but he's doing better than Krug and Krug's drought started well before Perunovich starting eating into his role.

Krug is going through a major cold streak. He has 2 total points in his last dozen games. There is a good case to be made that his body of work suggests he is better offensively at 5 on 5 than Perunovich, but he absolutely hasn't been in the time that both have been on our roster.

Discussing usage, Krug had two giveaways on the PP that were easily worse than anything Perunovich did last night. The bulk of Krug's missteps last night were fully unforced errors that had nothing to do with usage. I get what you're saying from a macro level, but last night was not a result of Krug having a tough assignment. He was dreadful in all situations.

Any discussion about sending down Perunovich at the moment is moot. We don't have enough healthy D to do so. With that said, I actually prefer our team running 11F and 7D when healthy. We have enough forward talent in the middle/bottom 6 to soak up the minutes and the 7 D allows us to use our numerous 1 dimensional D men to their strengths (Faulk and Parayko are the only D on the roster who I think are above-replacement level in all situations).

He should have sat couple extra days after Covid while he built up energy and got back in synch. He scored first game back (likely running on adrenaline) and has just 1 pt since and generally been bad. He was playing much better before he got sick.

 

[Majorityof1]

I don't see Krug generating any offense at 5 on 5. He has been completely lifeless offensively for well over a month now. His last point at 5 on 5 came in our 5th game of the season on 10/25/21. His lone even strength point since then came at 4 on 4. He's on a 10 game scoreless streak at even strength and a 15 game scoreless streak at 5 on 5. Perunovich isn't lighting it up at even strength (2 points in 11 games), but he's doing better than Krug and Krug's drought started well before Perunovich starting eating into his role.

Krug is going through a major cold streak. He has 2 total points in his last dozen games. There is a good case to be made that his body of work suggests he is better offensively at 5 on 5 than Perunovich, but he absolutely hasn't been in the time that both have been on our roster.

Discussing usage, Krug had two giveaways on the PP that were easily worse than anything Perunovich did last night. The bulk of Krug's missteps last night were fully unforced errors that had nothing to do with usage. I get what you're saying from a macro level, but last night was not a result of Krug having a tough assignment. He was dreadful in all situations.

Any discussion about sending down Perunovich at the moment is moot. We don't have enough healthy D to do so. With that said, I actually prefer our team running 11F and 7D when healthy. We have enough forward talent in the middle/bottom 6 to soak up the minutes and the 7 D allows us to use our numerous 1 dimensional D men to their strengths (Faulk and Parayko are the only D on the roster who I think are above-replacement level in all situations).

Krug is slumping now, but we know he can be a lot better than anything Perunovich has shown. Granted Perunovich hasn't had as much opportunity, but I take the devil I know over the one I don't. Also Krug hasn't been near as sheltered since we called Peru up. He isn't producing as much because he hasn't gotten the good usage he is used to. We are giving it to Perunovich instead. If he has 2 5v5 points since Perunovich has gotten here, that is the same amount as Perunivich with less offensive opportunities.

And yes, the point is moot right now. I was just hoping we get healthy enough where it isn't moot. When that happens my vote is to send Perunovich down to develop a little more. Although you do name a very good point about running 7 d allowing them to be sheltered more easily. We can have Krug, Faulk, and Perunovich while still having Parakol, Scandella, Bortuzzo, and Mikkola capable of PK.

 

[Brian39]

Krug is slumping now, but we know he can be a lot better than anything Perunovich has shown. Granted Perunovich hasn't had as much opportunity, but I take the devil I know over the one I don't. Also Krug hasn't been near as sheltered since we called Peru up. He isn't producing as much because he hasn't gotten the good usage he is used to. We are giving it to Perunovich instead. If he has 2 5v5 points since Perunovich has gotten here, that is the same amount as Perunivich with less offensive opportunities.

And yes, the point is moot right now. I was just hoping we get healthy enough where it isn't moot. When that happens my vote is to send Perunovich down to develop a little more. Although you do name a very good point about running 7 d allowing them to be sheltered more easily. We can have Krug, Faulk, and Perunovich while still having Parakol, Scandella, Bortuzzo, and Mikkola capable of PK.

But he doesn't. He has zero. All three of his 5 on 5 points this year came in October. He has 2 total points since Perunovich got here (a PP assist and a 4 on 4 goal). Perunovich has 5 total points in that span (2 assists at 5 on 5 and 3 assists on the PP). They don't have similar 5 on 5 production since Perunovich got here. This isn't a situation where they have similar production while Perunovich has more favorable usage. Krug has fully stopped producing at 5 on 5 while Perunovich is producing just slightly behind Krug's pace in his time as a Blue. Krug has scored at a .24 point per game pace at 5 on 5 in his 71 games as a Blue. Perunovich has scored at a .18 point per game pace at 5 on 5 in his 11 games as a Blue. Given the exceedingly small sample size for Perunovich and the fact that it came in his first 11 NHL games, I don't see a .06 point per game pace difference as enough to say that Krug is a lot better offensively at 5 on 5.

I'm also going to push back on the notion that all of Krug's offensive usage is going to Perunovich. Krug's offensive start ratio has decreased, he is still getting a huge amount of offensive opportunities. Since Perunovich got here, Krug is still 2nd on the team in offensive zone starts (42 for Perunovich and 35 for Krug) and Krug is 1st on the team in offensive zone faceoffs (79 for Krug and 75 for Perunovich). Krug's offensive start rate is 61.4% and his offensive faceoff rate is 63.2% since Perunovich got here. They were 71.4% and 68.9% before Perunovich got here. A decrease to be sure, but not a night and day difference that justifies zero production. Krug and Perunovich are about dead even in offensive opportunities since the call up. The big difference in their start rates comes from Krug's additional 33 minutes of 5 on 5 usage that is skewing toward defensive responsibilities. We aren't running Krug into the ground. He's getting less than 21 minutes a night. I'm fine attributing his dip in percentage stats to the increased defensive responsibilities. I'm not fine with attributing his complete drop off in production to it. The two of them are pretty evenly splitting offensive deployment and Perunovich is outscoring Krug. It could absolutely be a blip due to a small sample, COVID recovery, etc. But it absolutely isn't evidence that Krug is on another level than Perunovich.

Krug is not an elite offensive producer at 5 on 5. He's pretty damn good, but not elite. He's 23rd among all D men in even strength scoring since he broke out as a 50+ point player in 2016/17. Tied for 31st last year and tied for 48th in his overall time with the Blues. Perunovich also hasn't been amazing at 5 on 5, but his 5 on 5 points per 60 is .81 so far. Krug was at .91 last season and is at .54 this season. I just don't see this offensive gap that you're seeing. In the 11 games since Perunovich got here, he is outscoring Krug 5-2 in all situations and 2-0 at 5 on 5. Krug has a greater defensive responsibility (with mixed results) but they have been splitting offensive opportunities almost exactly 50/50.

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

Now that I’m no longer hungover or frozen. Just wanted to comment before this thread was locked how awesome and unexpected this win was.

Hopefully this team can build on this win just like 2009 when we beat Boston and went on a run!