GDT: Blues @ Ducks| Giving up and scoring lots of goals| NBCSN, 8:30pm

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The Note

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When: Wednesday, March 3 at 8:30pm
Where: Honda Center in Anaheim
Watch: NBC Sports Network, NBC Sports App
Listen: 101 ESPN, NHL App


:blues
Projected lineup

Sanford - O'Reilly - Kyrou
Walker - Schenn - Perron
Blais - Sundqvist - Hoffman
Clifford - Joshua - MacEachern

Krug - Faulk
Dunn-Scandella
Mikkola-Bortuzzo


Binnington

Vs.

:ducks

Milano-Getzlaf-Jones
Comtois-Lundestrom-Rakell
Zegras-Henrique-Silvferberg
Grant-Steel-Deslauriers

Lindholm-Shattenkirk
Fowler-Hakanpaa
Hutton-Larsson

Gibson
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Need to win tonight.

My guess is we are without Tarasenko for 2 more games. I’m thinking he returns Saturday.
I'm sure they won't disrupt the line-up in the 2nd of a back to back where they won the first game, its not Berube's style. I think maybe he displaces Kyrou when he returns and bumps Kyrou to replace Walker in the line-up? JR said who he was practicing with, but I can't remember or find exactly where that was reported.
 

CaliforniaBlues310

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Tarasenko doesn't play with ROR. It's Schenn he wil play with.

He has before though and it was pretty successful. They were running the Schenn-O’Reilly-Tarasenko line down the stretch of the Cup winning season when the team was on fire. He went back with 17/10 during the playoffs when Chief switched the lines back to the popular ones we remember. (12-90-57/7-21-18/49-70-20)
 
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DeuceNine

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He has before though and it was pretty successful. They were running the Schenn-O’Reilly-Tarasenko line down the stretch of the Cup winning season when the team was on fire. He went back with 17/10 during the playoffs when Chief switched the lines back to the popular ones we remember. (12-90-57/7-21-18/49-70-20)
:yo:
 
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Stealth JD

Don't condescend me, man.
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Ducks are still trash...better get the two points you need. Playing .500 versus Vegas, Colorado and Minnesota may not be enough to clinch a playoff spot if you're losing the season series versus LAK and ARZ. Games like tonight are the ones you can least afford to lose if you can't handle business against the actual competition. Games get tougher after tonight.
 

Xerloris

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He has before though and it was pretty successful. They were running the Schenn-O’Reilly-Tarasenko line down the stretch of the Cup winning season when the team was on fire. He went back with 17/10 during the playoffs when Chief switched the lines back to the popular ones we remember. (12-90-57/7-21-18/49-70-20)

So even when he did play with ROR he was also with Schenn.

That's also when Schwartz was a blackhole and made anyone he was on the ice with suck. It made sense to get Schenn and Tarasenko away from him.
 
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Brian39

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Ducks are still trash...better get the two points you need. Playing .500 versus Vegas, Colorado and Minnesota may not be enough to clinch a playoff spot if you're losing the season series versus LAK and ARZ. Games like tonight are the ones you can least afford to lose if you can't handle business against the actual competition. Games get tougher after tonight.
I still have absolutely zero concern about Arizona. They are playing at a .500 points percentage while we are at a .591. Exclude their games against us and they are 5-7-2. They only get to play us once more, so why should we believe that they will suddenly start playing .550+ hockey against the teams that they have so far been .429 against? That's what it is going to take if we play .500 hockey from here on out. LA is still the worst 5 on 5 team in the league by pretty much every single underlying metric and they are riding .917 goaltending to .550 hockey. They are the 23rd best team in the league at 5 on 5 by actual goals for percentage and 21st in goals for per 60 at 5 on 5. They have riden Petersen's .928 SV%, a 25% PP and an 86% PK to a pretty mediocre record and I don't see much room for improvement above their current .550 pace.

Despite all the injuries, we're at .591 points percentage on the season so far. The hand wringing about how every game is seemingly a "can't afford to lose" night is getting tiresome.
 

Stealth JD

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I still have absolutely zero concern about Arizona. They are playing at a .500 points percentage while we are at a .591. Exclude their games against us and they are 5-7-2. They only get to play us once more, so why should we believe that they will suddenly start playing .550+ hockey against the teams that they have so far been .429 against? That's what it is going to take if we play .500 hockey from here on out. LA is still the worst 5 on 5 team in the league by pretty much every single underlying metric and they are riding .917 goaltending to .550 hockey. They are the 23rd best team in the league at 5 on 5 by actual goals for percentage and 21st in goals for per 60 at 5 on 5. They have riden Petersen's .928 SV%, a 25% PP and an 86% PK to a pretty mediocre record and I don't see much room for improvement above their current .550 pace.

Despite all the injuries, we're at .591 points percentage on the season so far. The hand wringing about how every game is seemingly a "can't afford to lose" night is getting tiresome.

Kings are really only losing to the Knights and Wild. That's a formidable club despite what analytics say. They've taken the Blues lunch money three times out of four. If they take the next 2 vs. a banged up Blues club, will that be enough to get your attention and have you acknowledge that it's tough to finish top-4 if you're losing season series to clubs like LA and AZ? Suddenly you need to come out ahead in match-ups with the top of the division; otherwise you're hoping your competition for a top-4 spot happens to shit the bed against MIN/COL/VGK even more than STL did. The only teams to really beat up on are the Ducks and the Sharks. You lose winnable games against them, and proceed to give points to the Kings, Wild and Coyotes in a head-to-head situation, and suddenly you've run out of runway in which to make up games in a shortened season. This season could produce a 5th place finish, despite nobody being particularly impressed by the way in which MIN/ARZ/LA won games. Blues still have to beat 2 of those 3 teams for a spot, assuming COL and VGK qualify.
 

LetsGoBLUES91

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I still have absolutely zero concern about Arizona. They are playing at a .500 points percentage while we are at a .591. Exclude their games against us and they are 5-7-2. They only get to play us once more, so why should we believe that they will suddenly start playing .550+ hockey against the teams that they have so far been .429 against? That's what it is going to take if we play .500 hockey from here on out. LA is still the worst 5 on 5 team in the league by pretty much every single underlying metric and they are riding .917 goaltending to .550 hockey. They are the 23rd best team in the league at 5 on 5 by actual goals for percentage and 21st in goals for per 60 at 5 on 5. They have riden Petersen's .928 SV%, a 25% PP and an 86% PK to a pretty mediocre record and I don't see much room for improvement above their current .550 pace.

Despite all the injuries, we're at .591 points percentage on the season so far. The hand wringing about how every game is seemingly a "can't afford to lose" night is getting tiresome.

The Blues are an abysmal 7-4-1 against the awful Ducks, Kings, and Sharks this year. I don't know if Minnesota can keep up their pace, but if they can, with the schedule we have coming up, you have to be better against the SoCal teams. You just have to be.

It may not be a "must-win". Far from it. But a .625 point percentage against those 3 teams is rough if you want to be anything but scraping into a playoff spot on the last day of the season. We only have 12 more games against those teams. The other 22 are against Vegas, Colorado, Arizona (which for us is scary) and Minnesota. You have to expect a .750 clip against the bad teams if you want to stay comfortably in the playoff mix. We should expect that, even with some injuries.

Because in the other 22, I'd be happy to play at a .500 clip right now.
 
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Brian39

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Kings are really only losing to the Knights and Wild. That's a formidable club despite what analytics say. They've taken the Blues lunch money three times out of four. If they take the next 2 vs. a banged up Blues club, will that be enough to get your attention and have you acknowledge that it's tough to finish top-4 if you're losing season series to clubs like LA and AZ? Suddenly you need to come out ahead in match-ups with the top of the division; otherwise you're hoping your competition for a top-4 spot happens to shit the bed against MIN/COL/VGK even more than STL did. The only teams to really beat up on are the Ducks and the Sharks. You lose winnable games against them, and proceed to give points to the Kings, Wild and Coyotes in a head-to-head situation, and suddenly you've run out of runway in which to make up games in a shortened season. This season could produce a 5th place finish, despite nobody being particularly impressed by the way in which MIN/ARZ/LA won games. Blues still have to beat 2 of those 3 teams for a spot, assuming COL and VGK qualify.
And they lost their only game to the Ducks. And they went 1-1 with the Avs. And a shootout loss to the Sharks.

The Kings still have 12 games vs the Avs and Knights (we have 13), so I'm not sure why we expect them to outpace their current record when they struggle against good teams but we're in trouble if we just go .500 against those teams. I also disagree that they "took our lunch money" in 3 of 4. The most recent loss was a 2-1 final where we outshot them 36-20. The game before, we lost 3-0 with one of them being an empty netter and shots pretty even at 31-30. Across 4 games this year their goaltenders have a .946 SV% against us, so let's not act like they blew us out of the water.

I don't think anyone is saying that we are a 100% lock to make the playoffs no matter what. You are correct that we need to beat out 2 of ARZ/MIN/LA. And we are currently doing that despite LA "taking our lunch money" and the Yotes beating us in a 7 game series. We are 3-0 vs the Ducks so far this year and 3-1-1 vs the Sharks. If we view those two as the two clear non-playoff teams, then we have been doing exactly what you say we need to be doing against those teams. We're banking the points we need to bank. We're fine if we "only" play at a 118 point pace vs the bottom feeders.
 
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Brian39

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The Blues are an abysmal 7-4-1 against the awful Ducks, Kings, and Sharks this year. I don't know if Minnesota can keep up their pace, but if they can, with the schedule we have coming up, you have to be better against the SoCal teams. You just have to be.

It may not be a "must-win". Far from it. But a .625 point percentage against those 3 teams is rough if you want to be anything but scraping into a playoff spot on the last day of the season. We only have 12 more games against those teams. The other 22 are against Vegas, Colorado, Arizona (which for us is scary) and Minnesota. You have to expect a .750 clip against the bad teams if you want to stay comfortably in the playoff mix. We should expect that, even with some injuries.

Because in the other 22, I'd be happy to play at a .500 clip right now.
You have to include Arizona in the "awful team" category if LA is in there, which means that you have 4 clear non playoff teams in a division where only 4 teams miss the playoffs.

Colorado is 4-3 vs the SoCal teams. They have a .605 P% on the year while we are at a .591. Turn one of their wins into an OT loss and their points percentage would be down to .579. That's how close things are between us and the Avs right now and no one seems to think the Avs are about to be outside the playoff bubble.

You absolutely don't have to go .750 against the bad teams to stay comfortably in the playoff mix if you define bad teams as those who are .550 or worse. That is a wildly unreal expectation, especially with injuries.
 
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WATTAGE4451

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I'm sure they won't disrupt the line-up in the 2nd of a back to back where they won the first game, its not Berube's style. I think maybe he displaces Kyrou when he returns and bumps Kyrou to replace Walker in the line-up? JR said who he was practicing with, but I can't remember or find exactly where that was reported.
Id think joshua sits before walker.
 

Xerloris

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When there are teams like Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa, it makes me wonder how anyone can sit here and say the Kings and Coyotes and even Sharks are awful.
 

Ted Hoffman

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Despite all the injuries, we're at .591 points percentage on the season so far. The hand wringing about how every game is seemingly a "can't afford to lose" night is getting tiresome.
I want to buy this, and then I think back to December 2003 when we had games in hand on Detroit and were only a couple points back, and it was don't worry, we've got games in hand. Even as late as January 19 when
the Red Wings were 4 points up and had played 3 more games, it was
don't worry, we've got games in hand.

By the time we got the next 4 points, it was February 14. We'd gone 2-9-1, scratched out an OT win over a last-place Pittsburgh squad who was 13 points back of the next-worst team in the league, and we were now 3rd in the Central, 12 points back of Detroit, tied with Nashville and the Predators had a game in hand. We never got any closer the rest of the season. I think we all remember how that ended.

Is tonight "must win?" No, but when you're playing the last-place team in your division and you're hanging your hat on a .591 point percentage, you better bury them when you've got the chance. Bottom line: never think of games in terms of "don't worry, this isn't a game we can afford to lose." Get your points at every chance, the sooner the better. Don't ever pin hopes on if it doesn't work now, don't worry - we'll get it later. Don't plan on we'll eventually get everyone back, and then everything will be fine and then we'll get our points.
 

ezcreepin

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Dec 5, 2016
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You have to include Arizona in the "awful team" category if LA is in there, which means that you have 4 clear non playoff teams in a division where only 4 teams miss the playoffs.

Colorado is 4-3 vs the SoCal teams. They have a .605 P% on the year while we are at a .591. Turn one of their wins into an OT loss and their points percentage would be down to .579. That's how close things are between us and the Avs right now and no one seems to think the Avs are about to be outside the playoff bubble.

You absolutely don't have to go .750 against the bad teams to stay comfortably in the playoff mix if you define bad teams as those who are .550 or worse. That is a wildly unreal expectation, especially with injuries.
I don't think anyone really worries about Colorado missing because they have enough talent to will them into the post season. Shit, Mackinnon could do it alone himself. It also doesn't feel like they have any particular trouble with bad teams, but they haven't played the amount of games against them that we have (Aves - 6-3-0, Blues - 10-7-2). Now you could say that we are banged up and losing more games than we would because we dont have the talent to sustain a good points %, but honestly I dont buy that. I haven't felt comfortable with any of the Blues' wins in weeks now. They will look good for stretches and completely break down and let bad teams right back into the game, hence the high scoring close games. Not to mention that Arizona gives us an extremely hard time as well as LA. It could be the case that once we get guys back, we wont have to worry about how we're playing because it'll be business as usual, but by that point we'll be playing the top 3 teams in our division and it's going to be much harder to win those games. These are games you should win handedly and if you're barely squeaking out 2 points every other game, you've got more problems than just injuries.
 
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