Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019 - Part VII

[MortiestOfMortys]

Yeah. He was an upgrade over Lapierre.

That isn’t saying much!

I agree that Goc was an upgrade over Lapierre, but I think that was a case of a trade deadline mistake. For his many faults, Lappy fit in really well on that Ott-Reaves line. They played for each other, and were greater than the sum of their parts. Goc, while technically the better player, just didn’t have the same fit, didn’t mesh as well with Reaver or Otter9. And I say that as a person who is a big-time believer in doing what the analytics tell you to do, and that every % improvement counts.

My attitude towards the trade deadline is just totally changed from where it used to be. Messing with locker-room chemistry and having a former regular sulking around bc some guy was brought in to replace him doesn’t seem to work as planned frequently enough to make the swap worth it. At the TDL, you are what you are, and you should just “dance with the one you came with,” so to speak. Make your changes during the offseason, and if you have success, don’t mess with it because you think you may have been too conservative earlier.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Trotz and Berube both have really convincing cases. I’d love to see Berube win but I wouldn’t be upset if Trotz did.

It has to be Trotz in my opinion. But even the nomination is a huge recognition for Berube, and well deserved.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

That isn’t saying much!

I agree that Goc was an upgrade over Lapierre, but I think that was a case of a trade deadline mistake. For his many faults, Lappy fit in really well on that Ott-Reaves line. They played for each other, and were greater than the sum of their parts. Goc, while technically the better player, just didn’t have the same fit, didn’t mesh as well with Reaver or Otter9. And I say that as a person who is a big-time believer in doing what the analytics tell you to do, and that every % improvement counts.

My attitude towards the trade deadline is just totally changed from where it used to be. Messing with locker-room chemistry and having a former regular sulking around bc some guy was brought in to replace him doesn’t seem to work as planned frequently enough to make the swap worth it. At the TDL, you are what you are, and you should just “dance with the one you came with,” so to speak. Make your changes during the offseason, and if you have success, don’t mess with it because you think you may have been too conservative earlier.

I agree, and that was definitely the joke with Lapierre.

However, look at Columbus. Bringing in Duchene and co. really madea difference I. Their ability to run more than one scoring line and now have a lethal roster. And TBL didn’t add anything. Not saying there’s causation here, but I do think that it’s not a binary.

I think marginal upgrades are at best marginal, ocassionally neutral, and more often than not negative.

High-talent players can make a difference though. It’s all about fit. Stastny made a big difference last year for WPG, for example.

I think there’s a lot to be said about fit and time of adjustment. Numbers rarely translate.

 

[Blueston]

I agree, and that was definitely the joke with Lapierre.

However, look at Columbus. Bringing in Duchene and co. really madea difference I. Their ability to run more than one scoring line and now have a lethal roster. And TBL didn’t add anything. Not saying there’s causation here, but I do think that it’s not a binary.

I think marginal upgrades are at best marginal, ocassionally neutral, and more often than not negative.

High-talent players can make a difference though. It’s all about fit. Stastny made a big difference last year for WPG, for example.

I think there’s a lot to be said about fit and time of adjustment. Numbers rarely translate.

Fit is so important. I think if you have specific need and can fill it you should. But just general idea that you want better players can cause more harm than good.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I agree, and that was definitely the joke with Lapierre.

However, look at Columbus. Bringing in Duchene and co. really madea difference I. Their ability to run more than one scoring line and now have a lethal roster. And TBL didn’t add anything. Not saying there’s causation here, but I do think that it’s not a binary.

I think marginal upgrades are at best marginal, ocassionally neutral, and more often than not negative.

High-talent players can make a difference though. It’s all about fit. Stastny made a big difference last year for WPG, for example.

I think there’s a lot to be said about fit and time of adjustment. Numbers rarely translate.

They did bring one of Dutchy’s linemates along with him though. I know they put Panarin with him at first and it absolutely didn’t work for some reason.

 

[Note Worthy]

I really wish we had another writer at The Athletic for the Blues who could break games down. If you go to the Blues page now there's NOTHING about the game Saturday or nothing about tonight's game. I mean, really? JR does a lot of fluff pieces, some of which are interesting, but lets save those for the off-season or All-Star break! I want to read a breakdown from each playoff game! Not about Bobby Plager watching playoff games. Again, I wouldn't mind reading that piece over the summer but we're in the middle of the damn playoffs!

Ugh. Rant over.

 

[542365]

I really wish we had another writer at The Athletic for the Blues who could break games down. If you go to the Blues page now there's NOTHING about the game Saturday or nothing about tonight's game. I mean, really? JR does a lot of fluff pieces, some of which are interesting, but lets save those for the off-season or All-Star break! I want to read a breakdown from each playoff game! Not about Bobby Plager watching playoff games. Again, I wouldn't mind reading that piece over the summer but we're in the middle of the damn playoffs!

Ugh. Rant over.

I'm with you, and I don't think we're in the minority. Stories like the one JR posted today about Plager are nice stories, but people subscribe to The Athletic with the idea that it's one of the most in-depth, comprehensive sources for sporting news. That story easily could've been covered by Jim Thomas at the PD. I wish we had someone who could provide that analysis on top of fluff that JR provides(for instance that story about the guy who donated bone marrow through the drive held during a Blues game in honor of Mandi Schwartz). That was an awesome story and I loved reading it, but it's not really a hockey story. Or a sports story, even, for that matter. The Blues are really lacking in coverage overall.

 

[MissouriMook]

I loved the article, but we do deserve some better Xs and Os coverage.

I really hope that when we finally win it all Bobby is still with us. And if he's able to make it down to ice level, I hope he gets down to the bench and Petro (or whoever happens to be the captain at that time) hands the Cup to him first. No one deserves that more than Ol' #5.

 

[Brian39]

I'm pretty quick to pile on JR and I agree that the Blues coverage is below the standard I expect from the Athletic.

With that said, 3 of his last 4 articles are breakdowns. There was a post-game-1 article about the top line shutting down the Stars top line and Tarasenko's goals. His article before that was a deep, deep dive in to the 3rd line (specifically breaking down a single shift that exemplified their success against Winnipeg). And before that one was a write up on the series win as a whole.

I'm a little perturbed that a puff piece was written in place of a game 2 breakdown or game 3 preview, but JR has been pumping out some pretty good analysis pieces for the last couple weeks before this piece.

 

[Blueston]

I'm with you, and I don't think we're in the minority. Stories like the one JR posted today about Plager are nice stories, but people subscribe to The Athletic with the idea that it's one of the most in-depth, comprehensive sources for sporting news. That story easily could've been covered by Jim Thomas at the PD. I wish we had someone who could provide that analysis on top of fluff that JR provides(for instance that story about the guy who donated bone marrow through the drive held during a Blues game in honor of Mandi Schwartz). That was an awesome story and I loved reading it, but it's not really a hockey story. Or a sports story, even, for that matter. The Blues are really lacking in coverage overall.

Stories like this are what JR excels at. He isn’t strong on the analytical or deep dive on games or why team is struggling or surging. Need someone else for that.

 

[Dbrownss]

Has JR ever presented himself as an advanced stats guy? I've always noticed he brings someone in to help him with that or at least in the past

 

[Note Worthy]

Has JR ever presented himself as an advanced stats guy? I've always noticed he brings someone in to help him with that or at least in the past

I never said it had to be advanced stats. It could be 5 things the Blues need to watch for against Dallas for game 3, etc.

Personally, I think it's annoying that in the middle of a round 2 playoff run that there isn't a story about game 2 or game 3 but instead a story that could be written at any time. I don't need advanced stats and algebra. I'm just looking for some insight before and after major playoff games.

 

[Dbrownss]

I never said it had to be advanced stats. It could be 5 things the Blues need to watch for against Dallas for game 3, etc.

Personally, I think it's annoying that in the middle of a round 2 playoff run that there isn't a story about game 2 or game 3 but instead a story that could be written at any time. I don't need advanced stats and algebra. I'm just looking for some insight before and after major playoff games.

I dont really learn anything from those generic game stories

 

[Note Worthy]

I dont really learn anything from those generic game stories

At least it's relevant to what's happening right now since it's the playoffs. I don't expect breakdowns or anything for every regular season game so if this were the regular season, whatever. But we're in round 2 of the playoffs. I think that makes a difference.

 

[Dbrownss]

At least it's relevant to what's happening right now since it's the playoffs. I don't expect breakdowns or anything for every regular season game so if this were the regular season, whatever. But we're in round 2 of the playoffs. I think that makes a difference.

That's writing that I expect from the post dispatch. Difference in expectations I guess.

 

[Note Worthy]

That's writing that I expect from the post dispatch. Difference in expectations I guess.

I enjoyed the stories he did when he spoke with the Dallas and Winnipeg writers and they went back and forth discussing the games. Something like that is good.

I'm sure he can think of something pertaining to the current affairs.

 

[Renard]

I'm happy for Doug Armstrong these days. He was viewed by many as being outdone by his fellow general managers in recent years. Especially Poile in Nashville.

Doug made a lot of changes to the Blues in the offseason, and most of them have paid off. The acquisition of O'Reilly was terrific for the team, but Perron, Bozek and Maroon have all contributed too.

And lets not forget the deal that wasn't made. When Jake Allen was struggling, Armstrong could have made a deal to acquire a goalie. It would have cost us prospects or draft choices or roster players. But up came Binnington from the minors and our goalie problem was solved at no cost to the organization.

 

[Dbrownss]

I'm happy for Doug Armstrong these days. He was viewed by many as being outdone by his fellow general managers in recent years. Especially Poile in Nashville.

Doug made a lot of changes to the Blues in the offseason, and most of them have paid off. The acquisition of O'Reilly was terrific for the team, but Perron, Bozek and Maroon have all contributed too.

And lets not forget the deal that wasn't made. When Jake Allen was struggling, Armstrong could have made a deal to acquire a goalie. It would have cost us prospects or draft choices or roster players. But up came Binnington from the minors and our goalie problem was solved at no cost to the organization.

Ones view of a GM can change on a dime. I never bought into the Poile hype.

 

[Stealth JD]

I'm happy for Doug Armstrong these days. He was viewed by many as being outdone by his fellow general managers in recent years. Especially Poile in Nashville.

Doug made a lot of changes to the Blues in the offseason, and most of them have paid off. The acquisition of O'Reilly was terrific for the team, but Perron, Bozek and Maroon have all contributed too.

And lets not forget the deal that wasn't made. When Jake Allen was struggling, Armstrong could have made a deal to acquire a goalie. It would have cost us prospects or draft choices or roster players. But up came Binnington from the minors and our goalie problem was solved at no cost to the organization.

What a difference a year makes. Nashville got old in a hurry and those Turris, Ellis, Subban & Bonino contracts look like albatrosses. When you look at ROR @ $7.5M, Schenn @ $5.1M, Bozak @ $5M with Barbashev, Thomas & Sundqvist all capable and under $1M/year, that destroys Nashville down the middle. Armstrong has so much more flexibility than does Poile, has minimal exposure to bad contracts and has a team that frankly looks much stronger moving forward. Armstrong has absolutely done a hell of a job of getting the Blues back to the "glory days", when a 2nd round appearance was the norm. Hopefully he's rewarded for his efforts because he's been able to reload on the fly much better than many of his counter-parts.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

What a difference a year makes. Nashville got old in a hurry and those Turris, Ellis, Subban & Bonino contracts look like albatrosses. When you look at ROR @ $7.5M, Schenn @ $5.1M, Bozak @ $5M with Barbashev, Thomas & Sundqvist all capable and under $1M/year, that destroys Nashville down the middle. Armstrong has so much more flexibility than does Poile, has minimal exposure to bad contracts and has a team that frankly looks much stronger moving forward. Armstrong has absolutely done a hell of a job of getting the Blues back to the "glory days", when a 2nd round appearance was the norm. Hopefully he's rewarded for his efforts because he's been able to reload on the fly much better than many of his counter-parts.

And frankly much better than most of us have given him credit for.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

And frankly much better than most of us have given him credit for.

Binnington was a hell of a lot of luck. If we don’t get Binnington up here, we are drafting top-15, Schenn likely gets traded, and we are in limbo with Petro, and Schwartz never redeems himself.

Armstrong even admits he had no idea about Binnington.

Credit where credit is due, but I think a good bit of that credit should go to luck.

 

[Eldon Reid]

What a difference a year makes. Nashville got old in a hurry and those Turris, Ellis, Subban & Bonino contracts look like albatrosses. When you look at ROR @ $7.5M, Schenn @ $5.1M, Bozak @ $5M with Barbashev, Thomas & Sundqvist all capable and under $1M/year, that destroys Nashville down the middle. Armstrong has so much more flexibility than does Poile, has minimal exposure to bad contracts and has a team that frankly looks much stronger moving forward. Armstrong has absolutely done a hell of a job of getting the Blues back to the "glory days", when a 2nd round appearance was the norm. Hopefully he's rewarded for his efforts because he's been able to reload on the fly much better than many of his counter-parts.

IMO Poile isn't as good as they give him credit for.

Has he given out some good contracts? Oh yeah for sure.

Forsberg 6/36
Josi 7/28
Ekholm 6/22.5
Ellis 5/12.5
Arvidsson 7/29.5
Jarnkrok 6/12

Then the last few years he has given out some god awful deals.

Turris 6/36 looks bad & they traded Girard away for him.
Ellis 8/50 Too early to judge on that one since year 1 starts next year. But I think the last few years of that deal will be bad.


Bonino 4/16.4 It hasn't been great, but it hasn't been good either. I would give this an average deal grade. He did have 17 goal 18 assists which isn't outrageous for his price this year.


Subban I don't think it is bad deal per say, but it CAN become real bad real quick especially if Weber retires early and they have to face the penalty on that contract.


Nashville will be an interesting team to watch this off-season for sure.

 

[Note Worthy]

Can we take solace in knowing that no matter what happens this series that we have most likely found our starting goalie for the future?

 

[WeWentBlues]

Can we take solace in knowing that no matter what happens this series that we have most likely found our starting goalie for the future?

Small moral victory. I will be more disappointed given how wide open it is.

 

[Note Worthy]

Small moral victory. I will be more disappointed given how wide open it is.

I'd say it's more than just a small moral victory. If not for Binnington where would we be for the future? Hope Husso works out? Roll with Allen again next year? Sounds like a grim outlook.