NFL: Bills-Bengals postponement impact on schedule discussion (UPD: Game cancelled)

[BB88]

If they lose to the Ravens, then using the logic of head to head games being the most important tiebreaker, they should lose the division and drop out down to #5 or 6 seed. Instead, they are locked in at #3.

IMO, the Bengals losing their last two was more probable than the Chiefs losing to the Raiders therefore arguing the lost opportunity for #1 goes lower on the list of unfairness.

The issue with game 18 is that normally Bengals would have been major major favourites against the Ravens but right now we have zero idea on how the players will react and look.
We have no idea, they could be playing a game while their heads and hearts are somewhere else totally.

& again you are putting way too much focus on the Bengals missing the chance at 1 seed, that was like the 3rd on the list.

& the Bills where taken the #1 and handed to the Chiefs while Bills held the cards regarding that

Chiefs won massively and Bengals lost

 

[misterchainsaw]

What was more likely? The Bills losing to either Cincy or to the Patriots or the Chiefs losing to the Raiders?



What was the chance the Bills were getting #1 seed going into the Bengals/Bills game?

And whatever the seeds %'s are now, a neutral site game needs to be factored into the value of the #1 seed.

I already told you what the Bills odds were and dropped to. 43% to 16%. A huge drop.

And the difference in value in the cases where the AFCCG gets moved to a different site is not even close to the advantage of having the #1 seed and not having to play the Bills/Bengals til the AFCCG. It's not even close to the same ballpark. Again, not even debatable if you have any background in the probability theory behind all this.

 

[daver]

The issue with game 18 is that normally Bengals would have been major major favourites against the Ravens but right now we have zero idea on how the players will react and look.
We have no idea, they could be playing a game while their heads and hearts are somewhere else totally.

Let's not bring in player reactions to this discussion. That just muddies the waters.

 

[BB88]

Let's not bring in player reactions to this discussion. That just muddies the waters.

We can’t ignore it on not having an affect on this weekend.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Home teams win 55.6% of the time in the playoffs. Even if you take that at face value (which is generous, because home teams are also almost always the higher seeded, thus theoretically better, team), the difference in win % between KC playing the AFCCG championship game at home and at a neutral site would be ~5.6%. The odds of that provision coming into play in a case where the #1 seed was flipped by the game cancellation is also a bit under 50%. So KC loses a little less than 3% of their win probability in the CCG in the event they make the CCG as the #1 seed due to the cancelation.

That number is absolutely dwarfed by the increased chance KC has of making it to that game with a bye and avoiding BUF/CIN in the 2nd round.

 

[GKJ]

 

[daver]

Home teams win 55.6% of the time in the playoffs. Even if you take that at face value (which is generous, because home teams are also almost always the higher seeded, thus theoretically better, team), the difference in win % between KC playing the AFCCG championship game at home and at a neutral site would be ~5.6%. The odds of that provision coming into play in a case where the #1 seed was flipped by the game cancellation is also a bit under 50%. So KC loses a little less than 3% of their win probability in the CCG in the event they make the CCG as the #1 seed due to the cancelation.

That number is absolutely dwarfed by the increased chance KC has of making it to that game with a bye and avoiding BUF/CIN in the 2nd round.

Source?

Here is what I found: How Much is Home-field Advantage Worth in the NFL Playoffs?

"Home teams in conference championships won 68.2% of the time, with an average margin of 8.2 points per game."

So you can reduce KC's win probability by 9%.

What else do they propose to make up for the lost opportunity for the Ravens to win the division?

We can’t ignore it on not having an affect on this weekend.

So what do you propose is done to even the playing field?

 

[GKJ]

Source?

Here is what I found: How Much is Home-field Advantage Worth in the NFL Playoffs?

"Home teams in conference championships won 68.2% of the time, with an average margin of 8.2 points per game."

So you can reduce KC's win probability by 9%.



What else do they propose to make up for the lost opportunity for the Ravens to win the division?

Doesn’t say, but for one, they lost their home game already. Also the whole purpose of being a division champion is getting the home playoff game.

 

[daver]

At the end of the day, what was most likely to happen going into the Bills/Bengals games is still most likely going to happen after Week 18:

Chiefs #1
Bills #2
Bengals #3

I don't see what else could be done to consider all of the scenarios in a more fair fashion. I don't think too many people will be upset with a Chiefs loss to the Raiders.

 

[daver]

Doesn’t say, but for one, they lost their home game already. Also the whole purpose of being a division champion is getting the home playoff game.

It is still in their hands to secure the home game. I think it would be unfair to the Ravens to have lost the chance to win the division without any consideration in return especially if they beat them twice. Seems like a fair trade for the Bengals being locked at #3 regardless of the outcome.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

At the end of the day, what was most likely to happen going into the Bills/Bengals games is still most likely going to happen after Week 18:

Chiefs #1
Bills #2
Bengals #3

I don't see what else could be done to consider all of the scenarios in a more fair fashion. I don't think too many people will be upset with a Chiefs loss to the Raiders.?

?? You might have missed the newsbreak but the game has been cancelled, it's not getting resumed or replayed.

 

[daver]

?? You might have missed the newsbreak but the game has been cancelled, it's not getting resumed or replayed.

I know.

 

[BB88]

At the end of the day, what was most likely to happen going into the Bills/Bengals games is still most likely going to happen after Week 18:

Chiefs #1
Bills #2
Bengals #3

I don't see what else could be done to consider all of the scenarios in a more fair fashion. I don't think too many people will be upset with a Chiefs loss to the Raiders.

That list wasn’t possible.

Either Bills beat the Bengals and get 1 or Bengals beat the Bills and are 2

So no what was most likely is not going to happen, it’s the exact opposite

 

[daver]

That list wasn’t possible.

Either Bills beat the Bengals and get 1 or Bengals beat the Bills and are 2

So no what was most likely is not going to happen

The Bengals could have lost to the Ravens and dropped back to #3.

The primary point is that the highest chances for #1, #2 and #3 were Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and are still that going into Week 18.

 

[The Note]

Not overly surprised by that, at first glance and even today it seems like Cincy was the team that got hosed the most in the situation. I'm sure they're arguing that if the NFL declared them AFC North Champs they want the home game flat out, no coin toss.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Look at what the NFLPA executive director is saying:



Soooo stupid!!!

Extra work for the players?

Um, wouldn't the 8th seed team feel fortunate that they got to play in the playoffs?

Wouldn't (or shouldn't) they gladly accept the idea of an 8th seed team being added, even if it means "extra work"?

Isn't making the playoffs what all teams strive for?

AP sources: NFL will not resume Bills-Bengals game

The NFL will not resume the Bills-Bengals game that was suspended Monday night after Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin collapsed and went into cardiac arrest on the field, two people familiar with the decision told The Associated Press on Thursday.

www.cp24.com

He's just bargaining, that's his job. If the players "give" on an extra playoff game, they want to "take" something.

That said, the result of a canceled game is just that, one less game was played. Theoretically, ESPN is owed a game, or they can ask for millions back. There's a guaranteed revenue split in the CBA, if the league has to refund ESPN the players would take a hit there. So, the 1st & 8th teams should play the game, if that were to be the route they go, for the good of the other 30 teams of players.

 

[daver]

Not overly surprised by that, at first glance and even today it seems like Cincy was the team that got hosed the most in the situation. I'm sure they're arguing that if the NFL declared them AFC North Champs they want the home game flat out, no coin toss.

Then they should also accept that the Chiefs are the #1 Seed and get the home game in the CCG flat out.

 

[Troy McClure]

And I get this one. The Brown family is one of the "poorest" of NFL owners. Losing a home playoff game is a significant amount of money gone.

 

[The Note]

Then they should also accept that the Chiefs are the #1 Seed and get the home game in the CCG flat out.

Why? I'm a Chiefs fan but I think the AFCCG on a neutral site if it comes to that is fine. CIN won their division, they should get the home game. Also the Chiefs still need to beat Vegas tomorrow, none of this is set in stone.

 

[GKJ]

Then they should also accept that the Chiefs are the #1 Seed and get the home game in the CCG flat out.

That’s not their contention according to the report. They’re saying the rules previously established are being deviated from. It’s never come into play, this is the first time since 1935 that everybody did not play the same amount of games.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

And I get this one. The Brown family is one of the "poorest" of NFL owners. Losing a home playoff game is a significant amount of money gone.

NFL Playoffs Generate No Financial Windfall for Individual Teams

Stadiums will be packed, and the TV audiences will be massive as the NFL playoffs kick off this weekend, but for the teams in the Super Bowl hunt, the playoffs offer little financial upside this season. The NFL’s economic model spreads the wealth. Its massive media contracts, along with a large...

sports.yahoo.com

The NFL’s economic model spreads the wealth. Its massive media contracts, along with a large chunk of gate receipts, are divided equally among the 32 teams. The playoffs are no different. The league collects almost all ticket revenue from playoff games and simply provides a stipend for home and away teams that cover costs for travel and stadium operations. Home teams keep their share of concession and parking revenue, which typically ranges from $1 million to $2 million combined, per game, but it is a rounding error for teams who can expect a check next season from the NFL for shared revenue of roughly $400 million. A Super Bowl run boosts merchandise sales for teams, but much of that revenue is shared equally, as well.

As a Bengals fan, my only objection is the coin flip for home field for a potential Ravens/Bengals playoff game even if the Bengals win the week 18 game. That doesn't seem right. Other than that, there is no perfect solution and the league is trying to do the best that they can.

 

[Voight]

Yea, this is a clusterf.....

 

[daver]

Why? I'm a Chiefs fan but I think the AFCCG on a neutral site if it comes to that is fine. CIN won their division, they should get the home game. Also the Chiefs still need to beat Vegas tomorrow, none of this is set in stone.

Based on points %; the same way that the Chiefs will win the #1 seed. It would be consistent to either include some caveats for all teams affected, including the Ravens or not include them at all.

 

[BB88]

The Bengals could have lost to the Ravens and dropped back to #3.

The primary point is that the highest chances for #1, #2 and #3 were Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and are still that going into Week 18.

Not in that order

 

[misterchainsaw]

Not in that order

The Bengals could have lost to the Ravens and dropped back to #3.

The primary point is that the highest chances for #1, #2 and #3 were Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and are still that going into Week 18

There's 6 permutations of 1,2,3 between the 6 teams. The most likely was 1)BUF, 2)KC 3) CIN despite the fact that KC had a slight edge on the race for 1 overall.

BTW my mistake on the the home field advantage number, I was fooled by a headline on a search. There's still the issue of "the best team is usually at home and likely had the advantage of rest with a bye", so the actual home field percentage is still likely a little less than that. But 9% is still dwarfed by not having to play an extra game (even against an inferior seed) and not having to play either of the other two best teams in round 2.