Post-Game Talk: Big win in the Big Apple.

[JT AM da real deal]

I think the team is better than the pre-TDL team from last year.

Before we get to the supporting cast, I think Matthews, Nylander and Rielly are much better than they were last year and Tavares and Marner are pretty close to what we got from them in the first 25 games of last year. A bit more from JT and maybe a bit less from MM...so far.

I do agree that age is taking something out of Brodie and Gio's games but that might be exposed by three too six dmen being hurt.

However,

Bertuzzi s better than Bunting
Domi is better than Kerfoot
Knies is better than Engvall
McCabe is better than Holl
Will is better than Murray
I think Lagesson or Benoit is at least equal to what Sandin gave us.

We do have cap space for a bit add, but you are right that we don't want to keep giving away too assets.

A second and Timmins could get us Tanev and (if he is healthy) that changes the D pairings.

Rielly Tanev
McCabe Liljegren
Giordano Brodie
Benoit Lagesson

(With the bottom four ensuring we load manage the two vets)

We still need to solve 3C but maybe the answer their is a bottom six of

Jarnkrok Kampf Gregor
Robertson Domi TDL pickup

Makes sense. We lean on the Kampf line more for matchups and d-zone starts and shelter the fourth line?

Not perfect, but I do think better than last year.

Very good analysis .. i see it pretty much same .. i do worry about gio and brodie on 3rd pair though but maybe we can give them big rests during season so they are as fresh as possible for playoffs .. and there is a risk that Lily won't develop into a 4 .. i think he will be at least a 4 based on his development as a D so far but progress is rarely linear with D so there is some risk still .. to me another D would alleviate things

 

[ICBM]

I see no reason to assume the core is any different than in previous years.

I like Woll but goaltending is a question mark, same as last season.

The defence is worse than it was, if for no other reason than the decline of our again warriors Brodie and Gio.

The forwards are perhaps slightly better overall when compared to the last season before the TDL.

You are mostly right, but there will be some x-factors:
- Woll is not elite, like Vasilevsky, or anywhere close to him, but he is young. Could he develop enough before the playoffs to carry this lazy core on his shoulders? We will know the answer.
- Domi, Bert, Robertson, Lily and many others are all still young and hungry. They could surprise us in the playoffs.
The second line will not work with Marner on it. Tavares is like Matthews. He needs two strong wingers to defend and deliver him the puck. With the Islanders, he had Lee and Nelson. Two big, hardworking dudes. And it worked. Marner gonna be moved to the third line in the playoffs. Or they get crushed again.
The Leafs could have limited playoff success with a lot of luck, but the team is still very fragile.

 

[Gary Nylund]

12th of of 32 teams is not mediocre. Plus you know full well that in OT during the playoffs anything can happem. They can get badly outplayed and win, just as easily as they can outplay someone and lose.

It's not? What would you call it then? Was there some reason to expect this team to take a step backwards and therefore 12th in regulation hockey is a positive outcome? IMHO they're underachieving which I've become used to in the playoffs, but for the regular season it's something new.

"Anything can happen in the playoffs" - what does that have to do with assessing how the team is playing so far this season?

You are mostly right, but there will be some x-factors:
- Woll is not elite, like Vasilevsky, or anywhere close to him, but he is young. Could he develop enough before the playoffs to carry this lazy core on his shoulders? We will know the answer.
- Domi, Bert, Robertson, Lily and many others are all still young and hungry. They could surprise us in the playoffs.
The second line will not work with Marner on it. Tavares is like Matthews. He needs two strong wingers to defend and deliver him the puck. With the Islanders, he had Lee and Nelson. Two big, hardworking dudes. And it worked. Marner gonna be moved to the third line in the playoffs. Or they get crushed again.
The Leafs could have limited playoff success with a lot of luck, but the team is still very fragile.

Yeah any time there's new blood there's always the hope, and the possibility that they will be amazing. Add Knies to the list, he's second on my list after Woll. And if Woll goes crazy, there is always that hope for sure.

I'm not saying this team can't win and of course there's always hope, I just don't have as much hope as I've had but that's neither here nor there. The team is playing below expectations is all we really know for sure, you used the word fragile and maybe that's accurate. Let's hope they can toughen up for the playoffs, I see little reason to expect that to happen but that's the beauty of sports - you just never know!

 

[Jojalu]

It's not? What would you call it then? Was there some reason to expect this team to take a step backwards and therefore 12th in regulation hockey is a positive outcome? IMHO they're underachieving which I've become used to in the playoffs, but for the regular season it's something new.

"Anything can happen in the playoffs" - what does that have to do with assessing how the team is playing so far this season?


Yeah any time there's new blood there's always the hope, and the possibility that they will be amazing. Add Knies to the list, he's second on my list after Woll. And if Woll goes crazy, there is always that hope for sure.

I'm not saying this team can't win and of course there's always hope, I just don't have as much hope as I've had but that's neither here nor there. The team is playing below expectations is all we really know for sure, you used the word fragile and maybe that's accurate. Let's hope they can toughen up for the playoffs, I see little reason to expect that to happen but that's the beauty of sports - you just never know!

It's a matter of how you view it. Obviously they could have played better. Yet losing only 6 games in regulation through 26 games is a good thing.

 

[kb]

Weird how "only the playoffs matter" is judging the team based on the regular season.

Pick a lane, it's a terrible look.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's a matter of how you view it. Obviously they could have played better. Yet losing only 6 games in regulation through 26 games is a good thing.

Indeed. Case in point - if you focus (as you just did) on how few games we've lost in regulation, you might say hey that's pretty good. If however you were to focus on how few games we've won in regulation, you might say hey that's pretty bad. I try to look at both the good and the bad and what I see is an underachieving team that's playing below their capabilities. Or to put it another way, their start to this season is ... mediocre.

Whatever. 26 down, 56 to go, then the real games begin and we'll see what happens.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Weird how "only the playoffs matter" is judging the team based on the regular season.

Pick a lane, it's a terrible look.

Who are you talking to, yelling at the clouds?

Every game matters, especially to those paying through the nose for tickets. For me personally, I care more about the playoffs but I still watch every game I can and every game matters to some degree.

When the season is done, I personally will judge the team mostly (but not entirely) on how they play in the playoffs. Is it OK with you that we discuss how the team has played so far, or should we shut down this place until the playoffs start?

 

[Jojalu]

Indeed. Case in point - if you focus (as you just did) on how few games we've lost in regulation, you might say hey that's pretty good. If however you were to focus on how few games we've won in regulation, you might say hey that's pretty bad. I try to look at both the good and the bad and what I see is an underachieving team that's playing below their capabilities. Or to put it another way, their start to this season is ... mediocre.

Whatever. 26 down, 56 to go, then the real games begin and we'll see what happens.

I can agree they underachieved to start the year. No question.

I would also say in the past 13 games, going 9-1-3 even if some were in OT is pretty high level

 

[Gary Nylund]

I can agree they underachieved to start the year. No question.

I would also say in the past 13 games, going 9-1-3 even if some were in OT is pretty high level

Agreed. They started pretty badly but lately they've been playing better and moving up in the standings, let's hope the trend continues!

I'm also happy that I made a small bet on them last night, just for fun. I figured we're playing one of the top teams in the league, we're on the road, 2nd night of a back to back when we played poprly the night before, 3rd string goalie in net, sounds like a game we win.

 

[ICBM]

going 9-1-3 even if some were in OT is pretty high level

Matthews and Co. can tell about their regular season success to the Panthers while being f***** up in the playoffs. Maybe this will help. Because nothing else from them worked.

 

[m1ker]

Matthews and Co. can tell about their regular season success to the Panthers while being f***** up in the playoffs. Maybe this will help. Because nothing else from them worked.

Leafs got saved last year because vasilevskiy shit the bed, Hedman was injured, and 2 other top D were injured.

 

[conFABulator]

12th overall so far. Why would they be mediocre in 5on5 when it's not OT, and great in 5on5 when it is OT?


If we're better than last year, why aren't we seeing it on the ice? IIRC we had a bunch of Dmen injured last November, and we were still winning like crazy. This season the only major blow is Liljegren. Gio's OK but he's nowhere near what he once was and Klinberg sucked anyway, Lagesson and Benoit have stepped in and played well, probably no worse than Gio/Klingberg would have played so our D is hardly decimated.

I don't really care that much, I've been saying the same thing I've been saying for years - we'll cruise to the playoffs, and see what happens then. I sure hope that if we are "better", we start showing it on the ice at some point because we're 12th overall in regulation hockey at this point which doesn't inspire confidence. It looks to me much the same team we've seen for many years, capable of playing with the best of them when they're on, but also capable of playing poorly and losing to inferior teams.

I think many people have a habit of overrating this team and it's players. I must have read hundreds of posts in the summer predicting 120 points for Marner and 1st overall for the team. I was one of the people saying neither is likely to happen and while I hope as I do every year that this is the season where we go deep in the playoffs, I don't see any reason to expect that to happen either. You never though, miracles do happen, we'll just have to wait and see.

It's not like they are NOT showing it on tb ice. This team might be one of the best teams in the NHL over the past 13 games, and they have the fifth best points percentage in the league.

After 26 games last year they were 15-5-6 and this year they are 15-6-5. They were really good last year and you make some good points. I guess I feel better about adding to a team that already has Bertuzzi, Domi, McCabe, and even Benoit/Lagesson. I was never a believer in Kerfoot, Engvall, and Sandin upping their games in the playoffs.

Very good analysis .. i see it pretty much same .. i do worry about gio and brodie on 3rd pair though but maybe we can give them big rests during season so they are as fresh as possible for playoffs .. and there is a risk that Lily won't develop into a 4 .. i think he will be at least a 4 based on his development as a D so far but progress is rarely linear with D so there is some risk still .. to me another D would alleviate things

Yeah, every team has things to worry about going into the PO. I feel better with Gio-Brodie as the third pairing rather than the second pairing, especially if rested more than last year.

Lily being a top 4 is a big if for sure. He was starting to look the part before he got hurt.

 

[Confucius]

12th of of 32 teams is not mediocre. Plus you know full well that in OT during the playoffs anything can happem. They can get badly outplayed and win, just as easily as they can outplay someone and lose.

What’s this 12th BS we are 5th… we’ve had this come up a few times over the years, it’s all about points %

 

[PromisedLand]

LMAO

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's not like they are NOT showing it on tb ice. This team might be one of the best teams in the NHL over the past 13 games, and they have the fifth best points percentage in the league.

After 26 games last year they were 15-5-6 and this year they are 15-6-5. They were really good last year and you make some good points. I guess I feel better about adding to a team that already has Bertuzzi, Domi, McCabe, and even Benoit/Lagesson. I was never a believer in Kerfoot, Engvall, and Sandin upping their games in the playoffs.

And 12th in regulation hockey PTS%. I'm more of a regulation PTS% guy myself though, there's no gimmicks in the playoffs and there's massive variance in gimmick hockey as well.

I kind of like the new guys too, we'll see how they do in the playoffs. The core guys really need to do better though, can't expect Domi to lead us to the promised land.

 

[mikeyz]

https://x.com/tmlfaninvan/status/1735005092007530715?s=20

OMG BOYS I AM f***ING DYING OF LAUGHTER!!!!

"Zip lock bag"

 

[notDatsyuk]

No question that the Leafs have sometimes tried to get by on their talent alone when playing much weaker opponents. At the same time, I think we are watching a different group this season. They are maturing as an actual team, in large part because of the additions that were made in the off-season. It is probably a weaker collection of talent than in past years, yet a stronger team.

This year we've lost in regulation to LA (4th), Florida (9th), Pittsburgh (21st), Ottawa (24th), Buffalo (25th), and Chicago (32nd).

We've lost in OT to Boston (2nd) twice, NYI (12th), Nashville (17th), and Chicago (32nd).

So of our 11 losses, more that half have come against the weaker half of the teams, five against the lower third, and two against the absolute worst.

Against the nine worst teams in the league, we are 5-3-1 - 11 of 18 possible points.

We may be "a different group" and "maturing" and "a stronger team", but we still seem to play our worst games against the worst teams.

 

[therealkoho]

Tanev FYI is day to day, if it were me he would be far, far down the list of people I'd expend assets on.

 

[Confucius]

This year we've lost in regulation to LA (4th), Florida (9th), Pittsburgh (21st), Ottawa (24th), Buffalo (25th), and Chicago (32nd).

We've lost in OT to Boston (2nd) twice, NYI (12th), Nashville (17th), and Chicago (32nd).

So of our 11 losses, more that half have come against the weaker half of the teams, five against the lower third, and two against the absolute worst.

Against the nine worst teams in the league, we are 5-3-1 - 11 of 18 possible points.

We may be "a different group" and "maturing" and "a stronger team", but we still seem to play our worst games against the worst teams.

Simpler way to look at it, only 3 teams in the entire league have less regulation losses than us and in all 3 cases it is only one less.

 

[therealkoho]

What’s this 12th BS we are 5th… we’ve had this come up a few times over the years, it’s all about points %

It's called Maths Outcomes for Negative Appearence, gathered together in a cave while grooving it with a Pict. Or sumpin like dat.

 

[conFABulator]

And 12th in regulation hockey PTS%. I'm more of a regulation PTS% guy myself though, there's no gimmicks in the playoffs and there's massive variance in gimmick hockey as well.

I kind of like the new guys too, we'll see how they do in the playoffs. The core guys really need to do better though, can't expect Domi to lead us to the promised land.

Sure. You could also look at their comeback wins, the fact that they don't lose in regulation and their record in one goal games. All of which also bode well for the playoffs.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Simpler way to look at it, only 3 teams in the entire league have less regulation losses than us and in all 3 cases it is only one less.

It's certainly a simpler way of hiding the facts.

There are only 5 teams with fewer regulation wins.

 

[Confucius]

It's certainly a simpler way of hiding the facts.

There are only 5 teams with fewer regulation wins.

Well it seems we don’t lose in regulation to often. We bring a good portion of games to OT

 

[therealkoho]

Sure. You could also look at their comeback wins, the fact that they don't lose in regulation and their record in one goal games. All of which also bode well for the playoffs.

Or, and I know this is probably going to sound really stupid, and even possibly to the point of meaningless moronic mindlessness, maybe just look up the standings. Like the bass it's all about the points ie if you have 107 points and the other team has 106, it's really simple you win. It's how many, and not how!

 

[Confucius]

Or, and I know this is probably going to sound really stupid, and even possibly to the point of meaningless moronic mindlessness, maybe just look up the standings. Like the bass it's all about the points ie if you have 107 points and the other team has 106, it's really simple you win. It's how many, and not how!

It would make total sense if we all played the same number of games