My take as someone who still pays for tickets in this city and still wants Melnyk gone.
1. Ottawa isn't one of the top hockey markets in Canada. The reasons are obvious and have already been identified multiple times.
-We have a relatively small metro population compared with the big three cities and most US markets.
-We don't have a large corporate season ticket base.
-Government clients cannot receive tickets as gifts, or attend games on the dime of businesses.
-Ottawa is not a dynamic blue-collar type town, but rather a white-collar buttoned down town. I believe (but I admit I don't have the stats) that team sports resonate more with blue collar folks - at least as far as sports fanaticism is concerned. (I am not judging - I'm a white collar guy who is a Sens nut, but all of my friends think I'm crazy and don't really watch or attend games.).
2. The arena location does have an impact on fan support.
-The arena is not centrally located and does not provide a lot of immediate external options for pre and post-game entertainment. It would be nice if hockey was a sufficient draw but in today's crowded entertainment market, you need to appeal to people in lots of different ways.
-The traffic situation sucks.
-People's behaviour responds to incentives. One issue that Mrs_NyQuil and I are passionate about is 7:30 PM start-times on weeknight games. We both work relatively late, so it's always frantic to try and make a 7:00 PM game, and the commuting traffic is worse. We have given away tickets (or simply abandoned tickets) to 7:00 PM games in the past because we just didn't want to go. Judge me all you want, we made a decision about attendance based on that fact alone. The move to 7:30 PM games has resulted in us giving away fewer tickets.
3. The cost of operating a hockey team has ballooned.
-I do feel sympathy for Eugene Melnyk with respect to the fact that salaries have gone up exponentially (~37M when the cap was first introduced - now past ~80M) while Ottawa fans have either seen ticket costs go down or have refused to pay more for tickets. The media deal has helped keep the team afloat but it's hard to compete with the same ticket structure when the expected outlay for players has doubled.
-Costs for a family to go to a game are high but comparably low. The irony is that a night out at the game is very expensive as a 3 hour entertainment option but extremely cheap when compared with most hockey markets around the league.
4. The lack of organizational stability, questionable comments by ownership and string of exits by players and staff has an impact on fan confidence.
-In the game of brinksmanship between ownership and fans, the fans will not blink first. I truly believe that if push comes to shove, the vast majority of the Ottawa fanbase would wave goodbye to the Senators as opposed to being held hostage by its owner. Trust in Eugene Melnyk is at an all-time low.
-It's hard to build confidence and excitement about the next generation of Senators players on the heels of seeing a parade of superstars walk out the door in their (relative) primes. Heatley, Alfredsson, Karlsson, Stone. It's hard to sell a rebuild when it looks like more of a sell-off, regardless of how smart some of those moves are individually.
-I know more than a few people in that "wait and see" mode because it's painful to attach loyalty to a group of players only to see them walk out the door.
5. Ottawa can be a successful NHL market.
-Of course it can. We outdrew the Toronto Maple Leafs for a time when we were competitive and successful, and that was relying a fair degree on same-day tickets and walk-ups. People in this town will cheer for a good product on the ice. The challenge is being able to fill the stands when we aren't competitive or rebuilding.
-Even if we are a weak hockey market in Canada, it's still hockey and it's still Canada.
-A new arena would spark renewed interest in the team. It's a shame that this has gone on hold, because it's an easy (if temporary) surge.
-Our team competing and winning a lot more games inevitably sparks more interest and attendance.
-The right star or star players could inspire more fans to go to the games. This is why the loss of the #1 pick hits me a little harder than usual - I think he was the perfect player to give attendance a bump.
6. The team would have to be pried from Melnyk's iron-clad grip, and it won't.
-I don't think Melnyk is what we might call a "rational actor" meaning that anticipating his reactions to any boycotts or fan uprisings or whatever is a wasted effort.
-I believe that he will die on the hill of owning the Senators, and I think the NHL has a vested interest in not interfering with ownership.
-I know I bug some of the boycott crowd because I'm so anti-Melnyk and yet buy tickets, but I really don't think it's going to make a difference. He will beg, borrow, steal, cheat and lie to keep his team.