News Article: Big changes coming in for next season

[Wondercarrot]

This proves that EM is spending exactly what he should be based on his revenues. The richest guy is the league is spending $10 million more than the poorest. I'd say he is doing pretty well to hang in that company. We also don't know how the debt/ lease agreements compare etc. If Ottawa want's to spend like Calgary they should simply supply the same revenue as Calgary.

It’s like you are wishing that $72 million number to be true when it’s been demonstrated any number of times that it’s $10 million (so $20 million) less than than that in 2018 and $20 million (so $30 million) less in 2019 due to them specifically targeting LTIR players that they don’t have to pay but count against the cap.
It’s so weird given that’s the entire basis of your argument.

 

[Sweatred]

It’s like you are wishing that $72 million number to be true when it’s been demonstrated any number of times that it’s $10 million (so $20 million) less than than that in 2018 and $20 million (so $30 million) less in 2019 due to them specifically targeting LTIR players that they don’t have to pay but count against the cap.
It’s so weird given that’s the entire basis of your argument.

The Sens aren't the only team with dead cap money. Secondly, its very possible that the delta in debt payment + lease arrangements exceeds the dead cap space the Sens use vs Winnipeg or whoever the comp is.

We could add dead cap money into the equation fairly easily but how Forbes and co have reported debt repayments, arena lease arrangements, government subsidies, etc is a relative unknown. We are only talking about a few million here, so how a $5 million scoreboard or free arena rights are listed is fairly significant.

 

[coladin]

The team still being in Kanata is still a huge problem. You would probably see a 30% increase in gate revenues simply by moving it downtown. Buuuuuuuut we can't have nice things.

...and won't be going anytime soon. Best, best case scenario is maybe 3-5 years if they announced some sort of blockbuster deal.

 

[coladin]

There's no real sense circling the wagon with you guys. If you can't see how having an arena in a central location will increase attendance, and not in bumf*** Kanata where no one wants to go on even the nicest day, then I can't help you.

If they will not pay for tickets in Kanata, what makes you think that people will pay regular NHL prices at Lebreton with this owner? I just don't see how that is possible. He is despised and the principled people in Ottawa, will they just all of a sudden consider everything water under the bridge? They have shown great resistance to turning the page.

 

[NyQuil]

If they will not pay for tickets in Kanata, what makes you think that people will pay regular NHL prices at Lebreton with this owner? I just don't see how that is possible. He is despised and the principled people in Ottawa, will they just all of a sudden consider everything water under the bridge? They have shown great resistance to turning the page.

They could build a brand new arena in Kanata and you'd still see a bump in attendance just from the novelty.

However, I think an arena more centrally located is more sustainable over the long-term.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Fans shouldn't need to interpret anything. If Melnyk makes a bad decicion and put them in that position then he had the predictable "overreaction" coming. Wouldn't have been any different elsewhere had he had the same reputation in any other city. You really seem to be reaching to try to spin that event as anything but a bad decision by Melnyk.

 

[thinkwild]

I remember making the case myself a few years ago that it is unlikely Euge would sign EK, but that since we were almost in last place even with EK, Stone, et al, that a case could be made we would be smart to tear down and rebuild anew. If you are a championship team then go ahead and sign your ufa’s. But a basement team shouldn’t. Im not saying I agreed with it, i'd have liked to give them more chances, but I can see the logic behind that thinking.

However that’s not the story that was coming from Euge. He was saying they were going to sign all these players. I guess he downplayed the rebuild at that time as he didn’t want the fans to panic and stop buying tickets. How’d that plan work for ya Euge? A lot of his issues are communication related. Hopefully a new owner will be given an Owner PR for dummies handbook.

So now its unbelievable when he tries to maintain that this rebuild was part of the plan. If it was, he would have done things differently. But everything done seems done for cost cutting purposes, not team building. So im not buying into F.You’s. When he was lobbying for a casino and threatening that if he doesn’t get it that Ottawa fans would be used to developing players for the rest of the league, he played that foolish hand. Just like the Rough Riders. Hence my avatar.

And if somehow we were to play in a new downtown arena with no parking, we will need a robust public transit to get all those people there. Talking to current lite rail users, im gonna suggest we are a long way from that.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I remember making the case myself a few years ago that it is unlikely Euge would sign EK, but that since we were almost in last place even with EK, Stone, et al, that a case could be made we would be smart to tear down and rebuild anew. If you are a championship team then go ahead and sign your ufa’s. But a basement team shouldn’t. Im not saying I agreed with it, i'd have liked to give them more chances, but I can see the logic behind that thinking.

However that’s not the story that was coming from Euge. He was saying they were going to sign all these players. I guess he downplayed the rebuild at that time as he didn’t want the fans to panic and stop buying tickets. How’d that plan work for ya Euge? A lot of his issues are communication related. Hopefully a new owner will be given an Owner PR for dummies handbook.

So now its unbelievable when he tries to maintain that this rebuild was part of the plan. If it was, he would have done things differently. But everything done seems done for cost cutting purposes, not team building. So im not buying into F.You’s. When he was lobbying for a casino and threatening that if he doesn’t get it that Ottawa fans would be used to developing players for the rest of the league, he played that foolish hand. Just like the Rough Riders. Hence my avatar.

And if somehow we were to play in a new downtown arena with no parking, we will need a robust public transit to get all those people there. Talking to current lite rail users, im gonna suggest we are a long way from that.

They pretty much wrote the book on how not to handle the situation of trading everyone and rebuilding and their communication along the way. Baffling that they thought it was a good idea to talk confidently about everyone being signed until the bitter end.

If over the last 4 years everything had been handled properly from a pr perspective, it would be mostly business as usual by now.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

My take as someone who still pays for tickets in this city and still wants Melnyk gone.

1. Ottawa isn't one of the top hockey markets in Canada. The reasons are obvious and have already been identified multiple times.

-We have a relatively small metro population compared with the big three cities and most US markets.
-We don't have a large corporate season ticket base.
-Government clients cannot receive tickets as gifts, or attend games on the dime of businesses.
-Ottawa is not a dynamic blue-collar type town, but rather a white-collar buttoned down town. I believe (but I admit I don't have the stats) that team sports resonate more with blue collar folks - at least as far as sports fanaticism is concerned. (I am not judging - I'm a white collar guy who is a Sens nut, but all of my friends think I'm crazy and don't really watch or attend games.).

2. The arena location does have an impact on fan support.

-The arena is not centrally located and does not provide a lot of immediate external options for pre and post-game entertainment. It would be nice if hockey was a sufficient draw but in today's crowded entertainment market, you need to appeal to people in lots of different ways.
-The traffic situation sucks.
-People's behaviour responds to incentives. One issue that Mrs_NyQuil and I are passionate about is 7:30 PM start-times on weeknight games. We both work relatively late, so it's always frantic to try and make a 7:00 PM game, and the commuting traffic is worse. We have given away tickets (or simply abandoned tickets) to 7:00 PM games in the past because we just didn't want to go. Judge me all you want, we made a decision about attendance based on that fact alone. The move to 7:30 PM games has resulted in us giving away fewer tickets.

3. The cost of operating a hockey team has ballooned.

-I do feel sympathy for Eugene Melnyk with respect to the fact that salaries have gone up exponentially (~37M when the cap was first introduced - now past ~80M) while Ottawa fans have either seen ticket costs go down or have refused to pay more for tickets. The media deal has helped keep the team afloat but it's hard to compete with the same ticket structure when the expected outlay for players has doubled.
-Costs for a family to go to a game are high but comparably low. The irony is that a night out at the game is very expensive as a 3 hour entertainment option but extremely cheap when compared with most hockey markets around the league.

4. The lack of organizational stability, questionable comments by ownership and string of exits by players and staff has an impact on fan confidence.

-In the game of brinksmanship between ownership and fans, the fans will not blink first. I truly believe that if push comes to shove, the vast majority of the Ottawa fanbase would wave goodbye to the Senators as opposed to being held hostage by its owner. Trust in Eugene Melnyk is at an all-time low.
-It's hard to build confidence and excitement about the next generation of Senators players on the heels of seeing a parade of superstars walk out the door in their (relative) primes. Heatley, Alfredsson, Karlsson, Stone. It's hard to sell a rebuild when it looks like more of a sell-off, regardless of how smart some of those moves are individually.
-I know more than a few people in that "wait and see" mode because it's painful to attach loyalty to a group of players only to see them walk out the door.

5. Ottawa can be a successful NHL market.

-Of course it can. We outdrew the Toronto Maple Leafs for a time when we were competitive and successful, and that was relying a fair degree on same-day tickets and walk-ups. People in this town will cheer for a good product on the ice. The challenge is being able to fill the stands when we aren't competitive or rebuilding.
-Even if we are a weak hockey market in Canada, it's still hockey and it's still Canada.
-A new arena would spark renewed interest in the team. It's a shame that this has gone on hold, because it's an easy (if temporary) surge.
-Our team competing and winning a lot more games inevitably sparks more interest and attendance.
-The right star or star players could inspire more fans to go to the games. This is why the loss of the #1 pick hits me a little harder than usual - I think he was the perfect player to give attendance a bump.

6. The team would have to be pried from Melnyk's iron-clad grip, and it won't.

-I don't think Melnyk is what we might call a "rational actor" meaning that anticipating his reactions to any boycotts or fan uprisings or whatever is a wasted effort.
-I believe that he will die on the hill of owning the Senators, and I think the NHL has a vested interest in not interfering with ownership.
-I know I bug some of the boycott crowd because I'm so anti-Melnyk and yet buy tickets, but I really don't think it's going to make a difference. He will beg, borrow, steal, cheat and lie to keep his team.

Excellent breakdown, but I think you oiled have added ........ revenues in CAD, and majority of expenses in USD, and the exchange rate hovering around a 75 cent dollar.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

If they will not pay for tickets in Kanata, what makes you think that people will pay regular NHL prices at Lebreton with this owner? I just don't see how that is possible. He is despised and the principled people in Ottawa, will they just all of a sudden consider everything water under the bridge? They have shown great resistance to turning the page.

Well a User of public transit that has a Monthly Pass is highly unlikely to take public transit to the CTC.... so has to add the extra costs of taking their Car, using gas and paying for parking........ this same person would leave there car at home, to attend games or events at a Lebreton Flys location

 

[IlTerrifico]

If it seems certain that there will be no fans or few fans at games this year, the Sens in theory could consider using all that cap room for signing top free agents to one year high dollar deals, knowing the HRR limits will see the player getting maybe 25 cents on the dollar.

If the free agents can get long term deals, they would not likely go for it, but are teams going to sign long term in this environment? If long term deals don't come, for this year, they might take the big dollar, short term deal to maximize their one year take home.

Sens could give guys like Taylor Hall, Tory Krug and Robin Lehner something like $11M for one year each, and wind up paying about $3M in actual money. This year, they wouldn't make more money elsewhere with HRR limits.

They could actually have a fun season to watch and get back some fan goodwill.

With no fans in the seats, Canadian teams should be among the tops in revenue due to the Sportsnet money. Cheapo could do this without losing actual money, with total salary costs possibly $30M or less, equivalent to his Sportsnet income alone.

 

[JD1]

There's no real sense circling the wagon with you guys. If you can't see how having an arena in a central location will increase attendance, and not in bumf*** Kanata where no one wants to go on even the nicest day, then I can't help you.

I completely agree with you on the need for a downtown arena

The issue is how it gets built and whether it can happen without public investment

 

[Micklebot]

If it seems certain that there will be no fans or few fans at games this year, the Sens in theory could consider using all that cap room for signing top free agents to one year high dollar deals, knowing the HRR limits will see the player getting maybe 25 cents on the dollar.

If the free agents can get long term deals, they would not likely go for it, but are teams going to sign long term in this environment? If long term deals don't come, for this year, they might take the big dollar, short term deal to maximize their one year take home.

Sens could give guys like Taylor Hall, Tory Krug and Robin Lehner something like $11M for one year each, and wind up paying about $3M in actual money. This year, they wouldn't make more money elsewhere with HRR limits.

They could actually have a fun season to watch and get back some fan goodwill.

With no fans in the seats, Canadian teams should be among the tops in revenue due to the Sportsnet money. Cheapo could do this without losing actual money, with total salary costs possibly $30M or less, equivalent to his Sportsnet income alone.

So, assuming HRR plummets and actual player shares are 25 cents on the dollar, because Escrow is set at 20% we'd still be paying 80% to the players (and i think the league might manage the other 20% centrally). The shortfall would be recouped over the following seasons. I think your plan would put this team into some serious solvency problems and likely result in bankrupting the team.

 

[Chabot84]

The population in Ottawa keeps getting bigger but the building doesn’t grow. Should be easier and easier to fill these seats

 

[IlTerrifico]

So, assuming HRR plummets and actual player shares are 25 cents on the dollar, because Escrow is set at 20% we'd still be paying 80% to the players (and i think the league might manage the other 20% centrally). The shortfall would be recouped over the following seasons. I think your plan would put this team into some serious solvency problems and likely result in bankrupting the team.

Accounting wise, it wouldn't matter, as you would have a giant recoverable at the end of the season for salary overpayment, and your actual net income would be calculated based on the real salary cost, not the outlay.

Would create a bit of a cash flow issue, but you would have to believe at some point they would set player payments = expected salaries, or you are creating a giant taxation hit for players on money they would eventually pay back.

 

[GCK]

I completely agree with you on the need for a downtown arena

The issue is how it gets built and whether it can happen without public investment

The answer to the bolded is no. There are very few examples in NA of venues being built with private funding only.

 

[ottawah]

The population in Ottawa keeps getting bigger but the building doesn’t grow. Should be easier and easier to fill these seats

Theoretically, but historically Ottawa was near the top of attendance in the league never once dropping below 18000 for 11 straight years from 05-16. In the last 5 years the building of houses in Kanta/Stittsville has been quite expansive, and has especially exploded within walking distance of the arena. And yet attendance has dropped 30+ per cent to dead last in the league.

Other issues are at play, and simply adding more population is not going to solve the attendance issues.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]