Betting on hockey

[6ix]

Basketball is MUCH more consistent for betting and draft kings IMO, but I will throw in an NHL game every now and then if I'm feeling a team.

 

[Jussi]

I've bet on hockey and football for over 20 years. NHL used to be so unpredictable that it was considered easier to ein on lottery but over the last couple of seasons I think've won more from NHL games than Finnish league games. Though last season was a bit quiet on that front. I play with low risk/high reward mentality so I won't be running into problems. My biggest wins have come via the Finnish national betting agency game where you have to predict the score for two to four games(latter more in football). Just yesterday I got the scores right for SWE-FIN and USA-CAN and won 140 euros with a ticket that cost me 3,20 euros.

 

[theaub]

NHL betting is the best value of the Big 4 sports but also the least fun to bet on IMO

 

[Number 57]

A good place to start is with those guys http://www.betnhl.ca/

They've been going for a coupe of years and offer a lot of tips on their website. They make 2-3 bets every day and disclose them for free on their website (everything is free) with explanations. Last year, they finished with +22.85 units, which is pretty good but not astonishing. Historically, they are +144.82.

Also, a good personnal system to start with is EV (expected value). To explain this in simple terms, you assign how much chance you think teams have to win their games (in %) and compare your own opinion against the bookie. Depending on how much difference there is, you may want to take advantage of the bookie's odds. The full formula is: (Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)

For exemple, suppose a CAR vs PIT game.

CAR is +200
PIT is -110

Crosby is injured, and Carolina has been playing well, so you dont expect it to be easy for Pittsburgh. You think Carolina has 40% of chance of winning and Pittsburgh 60%.

So if you're betting 100$ -- on Carolina you would win $200, on Pittsburgh you would win 91$.

Now apply the formula for each team;
(PIT probability of winning 0.6 x amount won per bet 91) - (probability of losing 0.4 x amount lost per bet 100) = 14.06

(CAR probability of winning 0.4 x amount won per bet 200) - (probability of losing 0.6 x amount lost per bet 100) = 20

These results suggest that for this very bet, with the chances you have assigned to the teams, and the odds of the bookie, in the long run you would win on average $14.06 by betting on Pittsburgh and $20 by betting on Carolina. Of course those are totally random and made-up by me (I don't think the numbers are usually this high) but you get the drift. At this point it would probably be wise to bet on Carolina.

 

[Sniper99]

I bet online I cant say where but I bet on hockey quite often. To one of the posters that says not to bet on regular season hockey, thats pretty bogus to me. I used to win $150-200 on betting Over's in hockey quite a bit. I dont go to the store and bet with Sports Select their rules are really stupid. A Tie ruins everything when it goes to a shootout. Why not let us win Outright like the online sites.

I bet on baseball about a month ago with Sports select. Other than that I cant remember the last time I bet anything with Sports Select.

A tie in football is won by 3 points or less? give me a break. A win on sports select in football is won by 4 points or more. Sorry I'd rather just goto my computer at home and bet ML where you can actually bet a team to win outright regardless of shootouts. I also like being able to bet on NHL futures/props. I bet Keith to win the Norris and he won that year. I bet Rask to win the Vezina he won.

 

[ybnvs]

Talk to Daniel Negreanu.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Does anyone bet real money on the NHL? I was checking it out, I don't know how betting world, don't know squat about, if anyone has the time, can you please what + and - mean? I tried researching online but nothing that is easy to understand comes up.

That's the american system to display the odds (which is quite confusing to be honest, I will never get why they do it that way, if you can choose how to display, do it with decimal odds). Anyway, some posters have already explained what means the +/-.

What you must do to achieve constant winnings is find the value. That is done by breaking down the probability of an event. For example:

FIN @ RUS
The ML (winner including OT/SO) is:
@3 for FIN and @1.4 for Russia... that in probabilities translates to:

1. First of all we must divide 1 by each probability:
1/3 = 0.3333 + 1/1.4 = 0.7142
And we add both = 0.333+0.7142 = 1.0472
Now we do the following formula: ((1/1.0472)*100)=95.49%
This is the percentage that the betting house pays, therefore they gain an extra 4.5%

Now we multiply each probability by the payment percentage (95.49) to get the percentage the house gives to each team.

Finland = 0.333*95.49 = 31.78%
Russia = 0.7142*95.49 = 68.19%

Next step you breakdown the percentage you give to each team... for example: I give Russia a 75% of winning and Finland a 25%.

So, since I believe Russia has more than 68.19% chance of winning the game, I go for it and back it.

In the long term if you do it this way (and you place your probabilities better than the betting house) you will win money.
It is much easier to calculate percentages in hockey than in horse racing for example, though of course more mistakes are maken in horse racing than in hockey.

The spread as said previously is an interesting market but a lot of times they depend on the empty net and that is just like throwing a coin.

Some markets I find interesting are the individual team over/under goals (or even by period) and the players over/under in points... it's easier to find there wrong placed probabilities.

Never bet money that you need, and always stay calm and stick to this system, or else you are going to give your money to the betting house.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Don't.

 

[JuniorNelson]

"Game management" as described by the league precludes any serious betting.

 

[Esq]

You can explain it as many times as you'd like; it's still called the gambler's fallacy for a reason.

It doesn't stand up to statistical scrutiny.

It doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.

It is also the reason why they show the most recent number hits on roulette boards.

 

[Sniper99]

Don't.

Dont what?

 

[tarheelhockey]

You can explain it as many times as you'd like; it's still called the gambler's fallacy for a reason.

It doesn't stand up to statistical scrutiny.

But if it's been working for him so far, he should probably stick with it.

 

[Twist and Shout]

I do. And I make a fair bit consistently. Singles and parlays (2-3 games usually).

But I'm very picky about my bets. Previously if I won a chunk of money, I would bet on even very tight games the following night assuming that I couldn't lose (or at least that I couldn't lose more than I would win), regardless of the matchups. Don't do this. Look at schedules on a weekly basis and earmark games which interest you (ie. what I do is look at games where there is a clear favourite). Then track lineups/injuries throughout the week and wait for the odds to get released. If you see that you can double your bet or more, go for it - I don't bet on matchups where I bet $100 to win $50 because really anything can happen and what I count on doing is winning more bets than I lose on the select games that I choose.

An example (ignore the teams)..
Bet 1: Penguins over Columbus - $100 to win $100
Bet 2: Minnesota over Detroit - $100 to win $100
Bet 3: NYR over Winnipeg - $100 to win $100
Bet 4: Dallas over Ottawa - $100 to win $100
Bet 5: Calgary over Toronto - $100 to win $100
where i would need to win 3 of the 5 to come out with a profit of $100. If I win 4, I am up $300. If I win 2, I am down $100. If I win 1, I am down $300.

I would also be looking at goalie starts because odds often aren't corrected until a couple of hours after the morning skate reveals that a starter is getting a rest, for example.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I prefer using Draft Kings and doing the 50/50. I have a bit of a system in place that has been successful over the last two years. While most people look to pick players who are hot I look for players who are due.

The most sage advice in the thread so far.

Do your research, pick a strategy, and don't deviate from it.

I bet all the time. But never on Canucks games.

I find my heart gets in the way and you aren't a fan if you bet against your team. So I just bet on other teams.

Second most important piece of advice, never bet on your team for the reason stated in the OP.

I personally don't bet on regular season games because it's difficult to be profitable in the long-run. Instead, I throw a couple bets on who I think will win the Cup and then again on who I think will win Conn Smythe.

When betting on the Cup I tend to pick one of the teams that's seen as a favourite with odds ranging from 8-12/1, a middle-of-the-road team with odds in the teens, and another dark-horse that I'll pick because they play in a division that is weak (for example's sake) and then, you know, when you get to the playoffs anything can happen. The Conn Smythe bets just hedge my Cup bet a little. For example, I had the Kings in the 2013/14 season to win the Cup, had Doughty and Kopitar to win the Conn Smythe (thought Doughty had it in the bag but they gave it to Williams due to his GWGs), but also had Lundqvist to win the Conn Smythe as well, so had the Rangers won the Cup I still had a good chance of still taking in a profit because a Lundqvist Conn Smythe win would have covered all my losses and provided me with a little extra. It's a cheaper way to stay in the action if you love to bet and also lowers your risk.

I just personally think it's wayy too difficult to bet parlays throughout the season and be profitable at the end of game 82 so I stay away from that. If you do decide to bet on a lot of regular season games then I would suggest you follow a lot of beat reporters on Twitter, look at www.dailyfaceoff.com everyday, and pick a selection of "indicators" that will drive your positions. An indicator, for example, could be something like when an away team lands at the home teams city the same day they play, they may not play well that day due to jet-lag or something, regardless of matchup (david vs. goliath).

 

[tarheelhockey]

I have to admit, it would be a hell of a thrill to bet my entire net worth on the outcome of a single, regular season game.

That would be some edge-of-your-seat action for sure!

 

[Not So Mighty]

I bet all the time. But never on Canucks games.

I find my heart gets in the way and you aren't a fan if you bet against your team. So I just bet on other teams.

While I do agree with that, I just want to detail a situation in which I did bet against my team and feel completely justified.

I'm a massive Ducks fan. That cannot be questioned. I've been in attendance to each one of their four consecutive Game 7 losses. It has been extremely frustrating, somewhat embarrassing, and very painful. So last year, after watching them get beaten by Chicago in Game 7 and tossing a ticket stub in the trash that was worth hundreds, I told myself if they went to another Game 7 I would buy another game ticket but this time bet against the Ducks enough to cover the price of the ticket.

So there were two outcomes possible. Ducks win and the price of my ticket essentially doubles or Ducks lose and my ticket is essentially refunded thanks to betting on the Predators. Trust me when I say I was rooting against my bet 1000% but at least my ticket was free this year.

The idea here is that some victories are worth far more than their ticket price. At this point as a Ducks fan, I'm more than happy to pay out the *** to see them win a Game 7 but I'm sick and tired of paying to see them lose them. I will make this bet again if given the opportunity.

 

[Drake744]

I bet on hockey a lot but I'm more successful doing so in college football and NFL. The only time I bet on my team (Nashville) is when I'm at the game, I can get the full sense of how things are going and I pull up the site on my phone and I'll "live bet" the game (betting the updated odds once the game has started). I've won decent money a few times by live betting Preds games during a second intermission when I feel like we're outplaying the opponent despite losing, and getting the sense that it's just a matter of time before we tie or win a game. After 17 seasons of having Preds tickets I feel like I have magical instincts during certain home games.....

 

[Boyon90]

ive bet money on hockey

if I win, im buying a ****ing boat