Better contract? Stutzle or Suzuki?

[Miller Time]

There is a crazy stigma in hockey that “X player is on the PK, they’re a good two way forward” then if said player is also a decent point producer, that conversation leads to “x player is a Selke level player”.

Ottawa fans are guilt of this with Stützle when he started PKing. But if you actually watch him play, he is terrible at defending 5on5 and often cheats up the ice.

Now Suzuki is a better 5v5 defender than Stützle, That’s pretty obvious , but in reality, league wide he is an average two-way forward, but fans prop him up in conversations like this because it’s difficult for the average fan to quantify defensive contributions because there aren’t many stats that support that. You have to actually watch the games to know who is, and who isn’t a good defensive presence on the ice.

So no, Suzuki isn’t a Selke level talent.

Again, you'd have to watch the player, & know what to look for, to make that assessment. Your empty comments suggests that neither apply to your assessment.

 

[Bourdon101]

There is a crazy stigma in hockey that “X player is on the PK, they’re a good two way forward” then if said player is also a decent point producer, that conversation leads to “x player is a Selke level player”.

Ottawa fans are guilt of this with Stützle when he started PKing. But if you actually watch him play, he is terrible at defending 5on5 and often cheats up the ice.

Now Suzuki is a better 5v5 defender than Stützle, That’s pretty obvious , but in reality, league wide he is an average two-way forward, but fans prop him up in conversations like this because it’s difficult for the average fan to quantify defensive contributions because there aren’t many stats that support that. You have to actually watch the games to know who is, and who isn’t a good defensive presence on the ice.

So no, Suzuki isn’t a Selke level talent.

Do you think you are more astute at evaluating two-way play than an actual Selke winner? Because Ryan O'Reilly disagrees with you. It's not just 'fans'.

https://x.com/Antho_Martineau/status/1765124121807962208?s=20

Stats also seem to back up the fact that Suzuki has played like one of the better two-way forward in the world in 23-24.

I'm not going to weigh in on the Stutzle or Suzuki debate, but I think it's bad faith analysis to dismiss the strides Suzuki has made in his defensive game. He may not produce like Stutzle, but until Stutzle shows the same level of two-way play, we can safely say Suzuki's got him beat there.

 

[Korpse]

it’s really too bad this isn’t a poll.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Any posts implying that the answer is player X and that its not even close has to be dismissed. Clearly they haven't watched player Y.

How I see it is Stutlze might be a bit better offensively while Suzuki is matched against the opposing teams' top line more (he is like 4th in the league) and has less support offensively because Montreal only has one good line.

Stutlze proved he can make 90 points, was that a career year and this year is a down year? I doubt his career year already happened at only 21 years old.

Suzuki, since Slafkoski is on his line, i think is on pace for about 90 points as well, maybe even more.

The next year will be interesting for both players as their teams are supposed to take a leap forward (Ottawa was supposed to this year but it didn't happen, it will probly happen next year, when older, aging teams will get worse).

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And last year, it was Stutzle who was enjoying a career high in shooting%.

Yeah, and he paced for 95 points as a 20-21 year old.

Suzuki is pacing for 78 as a 24 year old (with an even higher shooting percentage).

Even in a down year, Stutzle has 43 5v5 points vs Suzuki's 30.

These two players aren't comparable.

 

[bud12]

Yeah, and he paced for 95 points as a 20-21 year old.

Suzuki is pacing for 78 as a 24 year old (with an even higher shooting percentage).

Even in a down year, Stutzle has 43 5v5 points vs Suzuki's 30.

These two players aren't comparable.

Using 5v5 stats to compare players that are not even on the same teams is pointless. Too much factor going on. And for the record, I think Stutzle is the more valuable player because of the age gap and is edge offensivly

 

[NyQuil]

Using 5v5 stats to compare players that are not even on the same teams is pointless.

Well, I keep hearing in this thread is about how much Suzuki is better at even-strength and as a two-way forward and yet Stutzle scores 50% more at 5v5 yet he only has 30 seconds more EV TOI per game and they are relatively similar in plus/minus (-11 for Suzuki vs. -14 for Stutzle).

Ironically, where Suzuki is ahead of Stutzle is with PP points.

 

[AvroArrow]

You can't win with guys like Stutzle. No heart, extremely soft and dives 24/7, that won't get you by. Suzuki on the other hand has helped his team reach a cup final already, he might not pad stats but he's the more complete player and a significantly better leader. That kind of softness will just never get you anywhere, it's legitimately worse than the '11 Canucks.

 

[NyQuil]

That kind of softness will just never get you anywhere, it's legitimately worse than the '11 Canucks.

The 2011 Canucks made it to the Stanley Cup finals and took it to 7 games against a quality opponent in the Boston Bruins.

Softness and not getting anywhere is a franchise player winning one series in 7 tries or a team captain winning 2 in 8 tries.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Very close right now but Stutzle has a higher ceiling and the potential to be a 100+ point physical forward.

You can't win with guys like Stutzle. No heart, extremely soft and dives 24/7, that won't get you by. Suzuki on the other hand has helped his team reach a cup final already, he might not pad stats but he's the more complete player and a significantly better leader. That kind of softness will just never get you anywhere, it's legitimately worse than the '11 Canucks.

Uh Stutzle will have put up back-to-back 100+ hit seasons?

 

[Forge]

Give me stutzle

 

[ijuka]

People think Suzuki is a “Selke type”?

I’ve seen it all.

Huh? He's been a defensive specialist for like, 5 years already. If he's not a selke type, who is? Confusing post.

 

[bud12]

Well, I keep hearing in this thread is about how much Suzuki is better at even-strength and as a two-way forward and yet Stutzle scores 50% more at 5v5 yet he only has 30 seconds more EV TOI per game and they are relatively similar in plus/minus (-11 for Suzuki vs. -14 for Stutzle).

Ironically, where Suzuki is ahead of Stutzle is with PP points.

So you juste prove my point. 5v5 and pp stats mean nothing out of context. Is caufield a better 2way foward than Slaf because he have more pts 5v5?

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Stützle is a 2 sport athlete, I’ll take that value.

 

[AvroArrow]

The 2011 Canucks made it to the Stanley Cup finals and took it to 7 games against a quality opponent in the Boston Bruins.

Softness and not getting anywhere is a franchise player winning one series in 7 tries or a team captain winning 2 in 8 tries.

Because that team was absolutely stacked and the skill gap isn't even close to being comparable. The Sedins were both Art Ross winners, Kesler was a 40 goal scoring shutdown 2C, they had a blue line and an elite goalie.

And like I said, Stutzle is SOFTER than that team, even though the Canucks were soft they were tremendously talented and had good depth. Stutzle is nowhere near the level of player either of the Sedins were.

My team got eliminated by Suzuki and I hate both the Habs and Sens equally, gimmie Suzuki alllll day.

 

[ijuka]

There is a crazy stigma in hockey that “X player is on the PK, they’re a good two way forward” then if said player is also a decent point producer, that conversation leads to “x player is a Selke level player”.

Ottawa fans are guilt of this with Stützle when he started PKing. But if you actually watch him play, he is terrible at defending 5on5 and often cheats up the ice.

Now Suzuki is a better 5v5 defender than Stützle, That’s pretty obvious , but in reality, league wide he is an average two-way forward, but fans prop him up in conversations like this because it’s difficult for the average fan to quantify defensive contributions because there aren’t many stats that support that. You have to actually watch the games to know who is, and who isn’t a good defensive presence on the ice.

So no, Suzuki isn’t a Selke level talent.

He definitely isn't average.

And advanced stats help with determining who is a defensive presence and who is not.

For example, Stützle's relative xGA/60 is 0.25 while Suzuki's is -0.45(lower number is better). And for CA/60 relative, Suzuki's is -9.33 while Stützle's is -0.64

And saying someone is a Selke-type center isn't the same thing as saying that they should win the Selke. It's an archetype.

 

[NyQuil]

Because that team was absolutely stacked and the skill gap isn't even close to being comparable. The Sedins were both Art Ross winners, Kesler was a 40 goal scoring shutdown 2C, they had a blue line and an elite goalie.

And like I said, Stutzle is SOFTER than that team, even though the Canucks were soft they were tremendously talented and had good depth. Stutzle is nowhere near the level of player either of the Sedins were.

My team got eliminated by Suzuki and I hate both the Habs and Sens equally, gimmie Suzuki alllll day.

Boston had a Norris winner on defence and a Vezina and Conn Smythe winner in net.

How many future HHoFers on that team?

I never thought I’d see a Leaf fan putting down the Bruins.

Vancouver wasn’t soft - they were just softer than the Bruins, like a lot of teams.

 

[AvroArrow]

Very close right now but Stutzle has a higher ceiling and the potential to be a 100+ point physical forward.


Uh Stutzle will have put up back-to-back 100+ hit seasons?

100+ points in 2011 was significantly more difficult than today

Also LOL at calling Stutzle a physical forward

 

[Golden_Jet]

No heart, extremely soft

obviously don’t watch the Senators, you must really find Matthews, Nylander and Marner ultra soft then.

 

[AvroArrow]

Boston had a Norris winner on defence and a Vezina and Conn Smythe winner in net.

How many future HHoFers on that team?

I never thought I’d see a Leaf fan putting down the Bruins.

Vancouver wasn’t soft - they were just softer than the Bruins, like a lot of teams.

K I don't really wanna talk about the Canucks or Bruins, I was just using the 2011 Canucks teams softness as an example to state that Stutzle is softer than the team that many consider as the softest of all time.

Regardless that is my stance, guys that soft who dive on every other shift just won't get it done.

 

[Essenege]

Yeah, and he paced for 95 points as a 20-21 year old.

Suzuki is pacing for 78 as a 24 year old (with an even higher shooting percentage).

Even in a down year, Stutzle has 43 5v5 points vs Suzuki's 30.

These two players aren't comparable.

Suzuki has 3-5 goals over what he should have but if we play the game of S% Caufield is missing like 15-20 goals which his a much higher impact.

Also big difference in production and scoring chances since Slaf joined the first line.

Production wise we haven’t seen Suzuki’s ceiling. I’d wager he’ll have a few 90 points season when it’s all said and done.

Stutzle might as well, I don’t watch him nearly enough to make a definitive answer.

I take Suzuki for his all around play. Both contracts are great bargain though especially 3-4 years from now

 

[NyQuil]

K I don't really wanna talk about the Canucks or Bruins, I was just using the 2011 Canucks teams softness as an example to state that Stutzle is softer than the team that many consider as the softest of all time.

Regardless that is my stance, guys that soft who dive on every other shift just won't get it done.

I know what team I consider the softest of all time, but that’s not for this thread.

 

[AvroArrow]

obviously don’t watch the Senators, you must really find Matthews, Nylander and Marner ultra soft then.

Stutzle is widely regarded as the biggest diver in the NHL, I know he's on your favorite team but it's a fact lol. Leafs guys are soft true but they don't dive and whine and cry like Stutzle, that's the difference. Anyways that's just my opinion no need to get so rattled by it, it's fine if you disagree. But as someone who hates both players and teams equally, I'll take Suzuki all day here.

 

[Cas]

Do you think you are more astute at evaluating two-way play than an actual Selke winner? Because Ryan O'Reilly disagrees with you. It's not just 'fans'.

As a general rule, I think many astute fans and other external observers are better evaluators of player value than players themselves. Players in most sports are historically awful at judging their peers - not every player, but it's pretty common.

 

[Korpse]

Leafs guys are soft true but they don't dive and whine and cry like Stutzle, that's the difference.

Nah they just avoid scrums and contact. That is the difference, and a big difference.