Benefit to Buffalo of CAD$ Crashing?

[MayDay]

Interesting to think about.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...eams-in-panic--trending-topics-143555287.html

And I've said this before, but it's obviously the teams deeper down the payroll scale that stand to benefit. Buffalo, for instance, had just $35.89 million committed to 13 players for next season, and cornucopia of picks and prospects with which they can dupe desperate teams into giving them useful NHL veterans. Teams like Dallas, Arizona, the Islanders, the Flames, and so on are in much the same boat. That could serve to significantly speed up any rebuilding efforts being made in those cities.

The idea is that the crashing CAD$ is going to sharply limit league revenues, which will constrain the cap, which will put a major squeeze on the teams that are up against the cap right now and have to worry about re-signing their own players.

This could give teams like Buffalo with so much cap space a ton of leverage in dealing with those teams. Perhaps (as Lambert suggests) we could add veterans that other teams might not normally consider trading, but cap issues force their hand. Or maybe we could take on other teams' salary dumps at the trade deadline when we deal Stewart/Stafford/Neuvirth/whoever, and that could help us increase the return in picks/prospects.

Thoughts?

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[BloFan4Life]

I will need to see it to believe in regards to salary cap going down.

 

[TehDoak]

It's honestly impossible to tell at this point.

The price of a barrel of oil is really at the whim of OPEC still, how can open and close the valve as they see fit. The struggling Canadian dollar could easily be overcome by massive expansion fees and relocation of struggling franchises like Arizona.

To sit here and look even more than 1 year out is futile. UFAs are going to be re-signed, players are going to get bought out, and contracts are going to move. The only real situation we can realistically look at is this summer. We know Chicago, Boston, Philly, LA and St Louis are looking at potential cap issues. And yes, with a ton of draft picks and assets, t here will be room to add some great players in there.

 

[Jim Bob]

Teams have gotten pretty good at knowing who to lock up and keep and who to cut loose when they get in cap trouble.

I wouldn't expect the Sabres to get some big time difference maker due to another team feeling the cap crunch.

 

[Eram]

Teams have gotten pretty good at knowing who to lock up and keep and who to cut loose when they get in cap trouble.

I wouldn't expect the Sabres to get some big time difference maker due to another team feeling the cap crunch.

No, but we'll still need some sort of small impact difference makers to pull out of the historically bad play

 

[JThorne]

It's honestly impossible to tell at this point.

The price of a barrel of oil is really at the whim of OPEC still, how can open and close the valve as they see fit. The struggling Canadian dollar could easily be overcome by massive expansion fees and relocation of struggling franchises like Arizona.

To sit here and look even more than 1 year out is futile. UFAs are going to be re-signed, players are going to get bought out, and contracts are going to move. The only real situation we can realistically look at is this summer. We know Chicago, Boston, Philly, LA and St Louis are looking at potential cap issues. And yes, with a ton of draft picks and assets, t here will be room to add some great players in there.

Not sure about that. There were expansion fees and relocation the last time the Canadian dollar crashed. Granted, it is a different economic world now, but that is more of a bandaid on a gushing wound.

 

[Jacob582]

I really think the TM is going to do a lot to improve the team this summer. I'll say it again: I think we will be closer to the salary cap than the floor next season.

Islanders traded for their #1 D last summer from a cap crunched team. So yes, teams may have to give up players they don't want to.

 

[Paxon]

I really think the TM is going to do a lot to improve the team this summer. I'll say it again: I think we will be closer to the salary cap than the floor next season.

Islanders traded for their #1 D last summer from a cap crunched team. So yes, teams may have to give up players they don't want to.

4.150 Stewart
4.125 Meszaros (LOL!)
4.000 Stafford
2.500 Neuvirth
1.900 Mitchell
1.250 Enroth
0.800 Benoit
0.650 Strachan
0.308 Gerbe's buyout
= $19.683m coming off the books from these players.

Yes, we'll likely be spending more total caphit on whichever two goalies are playing for us, but that's a lot of money to add just to get back to where we are, especially just considering Stewart + Meszaros + Stafford. How many free agents do you expect Murray to sign exactly? We can't be tying ourselves up with too many bad value free agent contracts if we want to maintain a sane salary structure. We already have commitments to veterans like Moulson, Gionta, Gorges, and McCormick for a few years.

 

[Husko]

4.150 Stewart
4.125 Meszaros (LOL!)
4.000 Stafford
2.500 Neuvirth
1.900 Mitchell
1.250 Enroth
0.800 Benoit
0.650 Strachan
0.308 Gerbe's buyout
= $19.683m coming off the books from these players.

Yes, we'll likely be spending more total caphit on whichever two goalies are playing for us, but that's a lot of money to add just to get back to where we are, especially just considering Stewart + Meszaros + Stafford. How many free agents do you expect Murray to sign exactly? We can't be tying ourselves up with too many bad value free agent contracts if we want to maintain a sane salary structure. We already have commitments to veterans like Moulson, Gionta, Gorges, and McCormick for a few years.

Jagr, 1 year 10 million

 

[LottoPlease]

jagr, 1 year 10 million

yes.

 

[Jim Bob]

No, but we'll still need some sort of small impact difference makers to pull out of the historically bad play

I really think the TM is going to do a lot to improve the team this summer. I'll say it again: I think we will be closer to the salary cap than the floor next season.

Islanders traded for their #1 D last summer from a cap crunched team. So yes, teams may have to give up players they don't want to.

Boychuk and Leddy are the type of guys that one would hope would pop loose and that Murray could nab.

There will definitely be a number of spots that the Sabres will have to fill and if they can get better fits via trade from cap crunched teams, then so be it.

 

[Jacob582]

4.150 Stewart
4.125 Meszaros (LOL!)
4.000 Stafford
2.500 Neuvirth
1.900 Mitchell
1.250 Enroth
0.800 Benoit
0.650 Strachan
0.308 Gerbe's buyout
= $19.683m coming off the books from these players.

Yes, we'll likely be spending more total caphit on whichever two goalies are playing for us, but that's a lot of money to add just to get back to where we are, especially just considering Stewart + Meszaros + Stafford. How many free agents do you expect Murray to sign exactly? We can't be tying ourselves up with too many bad value free agent contracts if we want to maintain a sane salary structure. We already have commitments to veterans like Moulson, Gionta, Gorges, and McCormick for a few years.

I think TM will be active with trades and about as active as he was last summer with free agency. He can project how many rookies he wants to add each year and when he will need the cap space so he won't add too much future salary. I know most of the good UFA's want longer term, but I'm hoping he can add some good players on short contacts. I just want to be competitive next year while allowing our prospects to develop in their proper league.

 

[MayDay]

I will need to see it to believe in regards to salary cap going down.

Wouldn't even have to go down. Even if it just stayed the same or even had a very minor increase, it would put a lot of teams in big trouble, since they will be faced with giving all their key free agents raises if they want to keep them to a contract extension.

And I'm not even thinking in terms of getting quality vets necessarily. I'm thinking that when we sell some of our vets at the deadline (say Stafford or Stewart) we could sweeten the pot a lot by accepting the other team's salary dump (player they don't want with big cap number) - and by doing that we can get a better return of picks/prospects.

 

[yahhockey]

Estimates peg Canadian revenue accounting for upwards of 25-33% of total revenue. The good news is that the gradual slide of the loonie affects this season's revenue monthly versus being a sudden 10 cent drop applied to the yearly revenues. Plus depending on how ticket sales are attributed the season ticket holders would have paid for their tickets in the late spring/early summer when the dollar was slightly higher. However if that is the case then the following season's cap would also be impacted by the lower season ticket renewals from the spring/summer of 2015. One article today suggested the cap may end up closer to $70 million than the $73 previously thought. The following year's cap may be stagnant if the dollar doesn't rebound.

There's no question teams will be forced to potentially accept lessor trade offers since the other GMs know that some players will need to be bought out or waived in order to be under the salary cap. The GMs may have a list of players they would prefer to part with but if the choice is to buyout or waive Player A or keep Player A, trade Player B and acquire Player C and/or draft picks it may be better to trade the player and get something in return. You won't be able to acquire any player you want from a cap stricken team but there may be a few surprises out there.

 

[krt88]

The Sabres will be in a situation like they were a few years ago, when the acquired Jordan Leopold for a 3rd from Calgary. The Flames had to move a player because of the cap and Buffalo got a quality player for not a big price.

I could see the same thing happening this summer with Chicago being forced to move a guy or two. The Sabres also could benefit this year at the trade deadline, taking big useless salaries off of teams roster and getting something back for doing it. It's the benefit of having tons of cap room.

 

[joshjull]

It's honestly impossible to tell at this point.

The price of a barrel of oil is really at the whim of OPEC still, how can open and close the valve as they see fit. The struggling Canadian dollar could easily be overcome by massive expansion fees and relocation of struggling franchises like Arizona.

Its not impossible at all.

Next year's cap numbers are estimates/projections based off this seasons revenues. Most of this years revenues are known so the league can start giving teams rough projections of next year's cap. The reason they are talking about the Canadian dollar right now is because its directly impact the league's revenues this year. Thus it will impact the league's estimates/projections for the cap next year.

The final revenue numbers will come in by June. Then the NHL can calculate the exact final numbers for next seasons cap. Its announced late June before free agency begins. Teams pretty much know roughly what the numbers are before the official announcement since the league keeps them updated as the season moves along.

Unless relocation fees or expansion fees come in before June they will not be part of next year's cap. And who would know better than the league if that was going to be the case. If during next season (15/16) those fees are paid to the league. Then they will count towards the next seasons (15/16) revenue and the following season's (16/17) cap numbers.

To sit here and look even more than 1 year out is futile. UFAs are going to be re-signed, players are going to get bought out, and contracts are going to move. The only real situation we can realistically look at is this summer. We know Chicago, Boston, Philly, LA and St Louis are looking at potential cap issues. And yes, with a ton of draft picks and assets, t here will be room to add some great players in there.

No one is doing that. The NHL is looking out over the next few months and estimating the possible final revenues for this season. They are basing that on revenues already earned, estimated revenue left to be earned and how the CAD may impact that. 73mil upper limit is based on the CAD staying where it is for the rest of this season. We can also use that number or the range given of 70-73 mil with the cap hits for players already signed for next year to make rough guesses as to which teams will be in rough shape this offseason.

 

[Eram]

The Sabres will be in a situation like they were a few years ago, when the acquired Jordan Leopold for a 3rd from Calgary. The Flames had to move a player because of the cap and Buffalo got a quality player for not a big price.

I could see the same thing happening this summer with Chicago being forced to move a guy or two. The Sabres also could benefit this year at the trade deadline, taking big useless salaries off of teams roster and getting something back for doing it. It's the benefit of having tons of cap room.

I could live with Bryan Bickell for a 3rd.

 

[drew5580]

Shanahan came out and said worst case scenario, cap goes down less than 1 million from projected 73.

 

[Beerz]

Shanahan came out and said worst case scenario, cap goes down less than 1 million from projected 73.

Bettman just backed that uppp...saying they expect it to be around 72 million.

 

[Djp]

Its not impossible at all.

Next year's cap numbers are estimates/projections based off this seasons revenues. Most of this years revenues are known so the league can start giving teams rough projections of next year's cap. The reason they are talking about the Canadian dollar right now is because its directly impact the league's revenues this year. Thus it will impact the league's estimates/projections for the cap next year.

The final revenue numbers will come in by June. Then the NHL can calculate the exact final numbers for next seasons cap. Its announced late June before free agency begins. Teams pretty much know roughly what the numbers are before the official announcement since the league keeps them updated as the season moves along.

Unless relocation fees or expansion fees come in before June they will not be part of next year's cap. And who would know better than the league if that was going to be the case. If during next season (15/16) those fees are paid to the league. Then they will count towards the next seasons (15/16) revenue and the following season's (16/17) cap numbers.




No one is doing that. The NHL is looking out over the next few months and estimating the possible final revenues for this season. They are basing that on revenues already earned, estimated revenue left to be earned and how the CAD may impact that. 73mil upper limit is based on the CAD staying where it is for the rest of this season. We can also use that number or the range given of 70-73 mil with the cap hits for players already signed for next year to make rough guesses as to which teams will be in rough shape this offseason.

If they were to get expansion fees ( don't see it happening before July 1) I don't think the money would kick into the cap calculation until the teams start being teams.

 

[Paxon]

If they were to get expansion fees ( don't see it happening before July 1) I don't think the money would kick into the cap calculation until the teams start being teams.

As far as I know, expansion fees are not part of the revenue the cap is calculated from. They go only to the owners.

 

[Djp]

I will need to see it to believe in regards to salary cap going down.

The factor isn't revenue...it's the Canadian dollar vs American dollar.

Candian dollar drops that lessens the Canadian tv contract revenue to each team as well as the revenue generated in Canada.

4.150 Stewart
4.125 Meszaros (LOL!)
4.000 Stafford
2.500 Neuvirth
1.900 Mitchell
1.250 Enroth
0.800 Benoit
0.650 Strachan
0.308 Gerbe's buyout
= $19.683m coming off the books from these players.

Yes, we'll likely be spending more total caphit on whichever two goalies are playing for us, but that's a lot of money to add just to get back to where we are, especially just considering Stewart + Meszaros + Stafford. How many free agents do you expect Murray to sign exactly? We can't be tying ourselves up with too many bad value free agent contracts if we want to maintain a sane salary structure. We already have commitments to veterans like Moulson, Gionta, Gorges, and McCormick for a few years.

Assume the floor is $52.5M
Buffalo is at $36?5 or so thus they need to spend $16M fir the cap floor
Projected open spots to fill...

2 G
1 D
5 F

8 player that will have to cost $16M

Larsson, grigirenko, Reinhart, and Armia part of team with contracts costing total $5M
Resign Neuvirth/Enroth for $4M
UFA/acquire forward for $4M
Backup goalie $1M
Vet Dman for $3M

What I'm not sure on is with ELC bonus money..if they earn it after the season foes it count against 14/15 or could buffalo have the option to ill that bonus over against the 15/16 season cap floor.

I'd like to acquire Semin or Sharp.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

How about demand for tickets falling off a cliff. Any benefit there?

 

[MayDay]

How about demand for tickets falling off a cliff. Any benefit there?

Afraid I'm not following you.

Demand for tickets has been remarkably high even during these last two seasons of suck. I expect it will only increase substantially once we have both McEichel and Reinhart on the roster and start getting better.

Don't see demand decreasing any time soon, much less "falling off a cliff."

 

[Vito_81]

One could also argue that Buffalo may be hit the hardest out of all the American teams with a declining CDN dollar.

Buffalo relies quite a bit on Canadians crossing the boarder and coming to home games. Not only those who come to see the Leafs and Habs but the Canadian Sabres fans, some of whom, are season ticket and flex pack holders.

So while perhaps the Sabres may gain an advantage based on capitalizing on the cap constraints of some teams, they may in fact take a hit in terms of generating the same revenue from Canadians compared to what they have in the past few years.