GDT: Bedard vs Ovechkin. 7pm. Capital One Center

[CapitalsCupReality]

Point still stands, call those seasons whatever you want. We're not a cup contender for a decade without two top 5 picks in Ovi and Backstrom. Chicago wasn't Chicago without Kane and Towes. Pittsburgh wasn't Pittsburgh without Crosby and Malkin. It's just the way you build a dynasty unless you want to be mid forever.

I think when you’re suggesting they tank hard again because they did before, and that’s the only path to success now , it’s worth clarifying they did indeed tank hard….for one guy, not both, so maybe there are options now, at least for 2 more years…after that, tank away if it’s needed.

 

[bacchist]

Rebuilding is a totally different thing than tanking.

 

[stephenball]

Point still stands, call those seasons whatever you want. We're not a cup contender for a decade without two top 5 picks in Ovi and Backstrom. Chicago wasn't Chicago without Kane and Towes. Pittsburgh wasn't Pittsburgh without Crosby and Malkin. It's just the way you build a dynasty unless you want to be mid forever.

Yep, I’m trying to think of recent perennial contenders without at least one or two top picks playing a major role. Vegas is kind of an outlier here.

Colorado - multiple top 5 picks
Chicago - Kane and Toews
Pittsburgh - Crosby and Malkin
Tampa Bay - Stamkos and Hedman

There for sure have been teams that have won without multiple top 3 picks. Los Angeles had Doughty but I’m struggling to remember others off the top of my head (Kopitar was a high pick), St Louis broke through. Detroit were always amazing at finding great players with low draft picks.

It takes more than just drafting high, there’s just a lot of factors. You can’t just get handed a bunch of first overall picks like Edmonton and immediately win the cup, you have to develop and build a proper team. Top end talent is hard to come by though, and there is a best way to get it. Nobody wants the Caps to just tank every year, we just don’t want the Caps to end up as the Wild or something.

 

[Kalopsia]

Yep, I’m trying to think of recent perennial contenders without at least one or two top picks playing a major role. Vegas is kind of an outlier here.

Colorado - multiple top 5 picks
Chicago - Kane and Toews
Pittsburgh - Crosby and Malkin
Tampa Bay - Stamkos and Hedman

There for sure have been teams that have won without multiple top 3 picks. Los Angeles had Doughty but I’m struggling to remember others off the top of my head (Kopitar was a high pick), St Louis broke through. Detroit were always amazing at finding great players with low draft picks.

It takes more than just drafting high, there’s just a lot of factors. You can’t just get handed a bunch of first overall picks like Edmonton and immediately win the cup, you have to develop and build a proper team. Top end talent is hard to come by though, and there is a best way to get it. Nobody wants the Caps to just tank every year, we just don’t want the Caps to end up as the Wild or something.

The Kings had 3 straight top 5 picks from 07-09. The whiffed big time with Thomas Hickey at 4th overall in 07, hit with Doughty at 2nd overall in 08, and hit well enough with Brayden Schenn at 5th overall in 09 to use him as the main piece for Mike Richards. The Blues got Erik Johnson with the 1st overall in 06, though he was long gone by the time they won the cup, and Pietrangelo with the 4th overall in 08.

Since the 05 lockout, only two teams have won a Cup without having multiple top 5 picks in the previous decade and a half - Vegas and Detroit. It's not impossible to win without a period of bottom dwelling, but it's pretty damn hard.

 

[HTFN]

The Kings had 3 straight top 5 picks from 07-09. The whiffed big time with Thomas Hickey at 4th overall in 07, hit with Doughty at 2nd overall in 08, and hit well enough with Brayden Schenn at 5th overall in 09 to use him as the main piece for Mike Richards. The Blues got Erik Johnson with the 1st overall in 06, though he was long gone by the time they won the cup, and Pietrangelo with the 4th overall in 08.

Since the 05 lockout, only two teams have won a Cup without having multiple top 5 picks in the previous decade and a half - Vegas and Detroit. It's not impossible to win without a period of bottom dwelling, but it's pretty damn hard.

Are we only counting top 5 picks made by the organization? Detroit should be waived due to the way they got those picks that were prime aged by 05...

But Vegas also won the cup with Eichel and Pietrangelo, two top 5 picks they admittedly acquired but didn't naturally draft as the core of their team (since both came into the league before their existence), alongside being given the opportunity to start fresh and only acquire contributing, competitive players not very long ago.

They still did an amazing thing but they also moved to acquire pedigree and it helped them break the barrier. At this stage with so many teams in varieties of "contract peril" being given an expansion team is basically an "here, don't f*** it up" starter package to being one of the half-good teams in the league, just don't f*** it up and you can be Minnesota or Columbus tomorrow at minimum, and likely better.

 

[Kalopsia]

Are we only counting top 5 picks made by the organization? Detroit should be waived due to the way they got those picks that were prime aged by 05...

But Vegas also won the cup with Eichel and Pietrangelo, two top 5 picks they admittedly acquired but didn't naturally draft as the core of their team (since both came into the league before their existence), alongside being given the opportunity to start fresh and only acquire contributing, competitive players not very long ago.

They still did an amazing thing but they also moved to acquire pedigree and it helped them break the barrier. At this stage with so many teams in varieties of "contract peril" being given an expansion team is basically an "here, don't f*** it up" starter package to being one of the half-good teams in the league, just don't f*** it up and you can be Minnesota or Columbus tomorrow at minimum, and likely better.

Yeah, I was specifically checking for top 5 picks by the organization, since the conversation was about tanking and whether or not it’s required to win a Cup nowadays. Obviously Detroit’s roster construction was mostly pre-salary cap and isn’t really relevant to what the Caps are trying to do. Vegas is also arguably irrelevant since they got the triple advantage of A) incredibly charitable expansion rules, B) a city that’s attractive to young guys, and C) no state income tax. I doubt they would’ve been able to attract guys like Eichel (he didn’t have a NTC but I remember him being given a say in where Buffalo traded him) and Pietrangelo if they’d been in Salt Lake City, for example. So I’m not sure there’s a repeatable blueprint here for the Caps, but it is technically possible to get back to that level without spending several years in the bottom five of the league.

 

[DWGie26]

Yeah, I was specifically checking for top 5 picks by the organization, since the conversation was about tanking and whether or not it’s required to win a Cup nowadays. Obviously Detroit’s roster construction was mostly pre-salary cap and isn’t really relevant to what the Caps are trying to do. Vegas is also arguably irrelevant since they got the triple advantage of A) incredibly charitable expansion rules, B) a city that’s attractive to young guys, and C) no state income tax. I doubt they would’ve been able to attract guys like Eichel (he didn’t have a NTC but I remember him being given a say in where Buffalo traded him) and Pietrangelo if they’d been in Salt Lake City, for example. So I’m not sure there’s a repeatable blueprint here for the Caps, but it is technically possible to get back to that level without spending several years in the bottom five of the league.

This is really good data. Thanks for pulling.

I do think FA is a bit different today. And overall, more talent available in drafts (although this year is thin compared to 2023 and even 2022.

I think there are a couple of new strategies than can be applied. I wonder if we’ll see more people going after RFA or trading for them (ala Sandin). There are several teams that will need to move some players because they just can’t sign them all. The Cap is going up so that helps teams and Caps may be a year late to do that again, but I do think there will be some options this year. This will be the time to do it.

 

[Praetorian Caps]

It takes more than just drafting high, there’s just a lot of factors. You can’t just get handed a bunch of first overall picks like Edmonton and immediately win the cup, you have to develop and build a proper team. Top end talent is hard to come by though, and there is a best way to get it. Nobody wants the Caps to just tank every year, we just don’t want the Caps to end up as the Wild or something.

 

[Neil Racki]

Caps WERE the Wild before Ovi.

We celebrated like we won the Cup if we got a guy like Joe Juneau back in the day.

We need to tank .. but we suck at it and the East sucks and the loser points keep everyone bunched up. We are 3rd in scoring but then journeyman AHLer Charlie Lindgren starts standing on his head and now we arent even in the lottery.

C'est la vie ... all we can do is enjoy Carlson back hand wrap arounds and Ovi lasers.

 

[sycamore]

Caps WERE the Wild before Ovi.

We celebrated like we won the Cup if we got a guy like Joe Juneau back in the day.

We need to tank .. but we suck at it and the East sucks and the loser points keep everyone bunched up. We are 3rd in scoring but then journeyman AHLer Charlie Lindgren starts standing on his head and now we arent even in the lottery.

C'est la vie ... all we can do is enjoy Carlson back hand wrap arounds and Ovi lasers.

One thing is I think the 2024 draft is going to be pretty thin. No standout talents like last year (again this is my understanding from what I've read so far, I could be wrong). If we get a nice solid top 20 pick-up I'll be happy.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Or we could just pull a late 90s Detroit Red Wings and draft Pavel Datsyuk in the 6th round in 1998 (171 OA) and Hendrik Zetterberg in the 7th round in 1999 (210 OA). That worked out well. Seems like every other team in the NHL (and even the Red Wings themselves) should have ended up firing their scouting departments to allow something as freakish as that to happen.

 

[g00n]

y'all postin in an old GDT

 

[Holtbyisms]

I think when you’re suggesting they tank hard again because they did before, and that’s the only path to success now , it’s worth clarifying they did indeed tank hard….for one guy, not both, so maybe there are options now, at least for 2 more years…after that, tank away if it’s needed.

I'm suggesting they tank hard because that's how almost every long term successful team becomes long term successful. The top five picks on teams who win aren't a coincidence. There are two options for the next two seasons. A slow painful decent where we waste valuable assets staying mid by overpaying for Sandin calibur guys or we go all in and tank. Only one of those paths leads to a successful future. The Rasmus Sandins of the world don't move the needle, especially not for 1st round draft picks. You're always going to have to overpay for young talent and that's not the way to build for the future.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm suggesting they tank hard because that's how almost every long term successful team becomes long term successful. The top five picks on teams who win aren't a coincidence. There are two options for the next two seasons. A slow painful decent where we waste valuable assets staying mid by overpaying for Sandin calibur guys or we go all in and tank. Only one of those paths leads to a successful future. The Rasmus Sandins of the world don't move the needle, especially not for 1st round draft picks. You're always going to have to overpay for young talent and that's not the way to build for the future.

Buckle up for slow decent until 8 is gone….

 

[DWGie26]

I'm suggesting they tank hard because that's how almost every long term successful team becomes long term successful. The top five picks on teams who win aren't a coincidence. There are two options for the next two seasons. A slow painful decent where we waste valuable assets staying mid by overpaying for Sandin calibur guys or we go all in and tank. Only one of those paths leads to a successful future. The Rasmus Sandins of the world don't move the needle, especially not for 1st round draft picks. You're always going to have to overpay for young talent and that's not the way to build for the future.

It’s not the only way.