Believe me, Nylander is a way more talented player than Ehlers. I haven't seen Kapanen play since the U17's last year where he was decent.
Pulled this interesting post from the Vancouver draft forum. I really think Ehlers is a steal anywhere beyond top 5 in ths year's draft
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Wanted to ask some of the posters here who may have regularly watch the Q about the following 3 players:
Nathan Mackinnon
Draft stats:
Size: 6'0
Weight: 180 lbs
Birthdate: 1995-09-01
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
GPG: 0.73
APG: 0.98
PPG: 1.71
Going into the draft: Universally considered a top 2 pick leading up to a strong 2013, ultimately went 1st and is having a tremendous NHL campaign. Would have been a slam-dunk, no-brainer 1st OA in 2014.
Jonathan Drouin
Draft stats:
Size: 5'11
Weight: 185 lbs
Birthdate: 1995-03-28
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
GPG: 0.84
APG: 1.31
PPG: 2.14
Going into the draft: Widely considered the most purely skilled player in the stacked 2013 draft, some size and minor skating questions but was always expected to be one of the top 3-4 players taken. Would have also been a slam-dunk consensus #1 OA in 2014.
Nikolaj Ehlers
Draft stats:
Size: 6'0
Weight: 163 lbs
Birthdate: 1996-02-14
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
GPG: 0.78
APG: 0.87
PPG: 1.66
Going into the draft: General consensus is he will be taken in the #6-8 range with a modest chance of breaking into the top 5 and an equally modest chance of slipping to #9 or 10.
So my question is why the huge gap between these 3 players? Whenever Ehlers is discussed, the most common concerns are his size and inflated stats from playing in the QMJHL. Yet the #1 and #3 OA picks in a very strong 2013 draft both play for the same team and in the same inflated league and neither are significantly bigger (though both were heavier at the same age). In terms of age, Mackinnon was about 6 months younger than either Drouin and Ehlers which is a plus, but Mackinnon was also in his second season in the Q. In terms of skills, Mackinnon had off-the-charts skating and high end vision, hands, and compete. Ehlers is described as also having elite skating (not quite as explosive) and comparable vision and hands. In terms of production, Ehlers is very close to Mackinnon's draft year though a good notch below Drouin. It is worth noting though that Mackinnon and Drouin played together while Ehlers and Drouin generally do not.
So my question is not why Ehlers is ranked below Mackinnon and Drouin; it is fairly clear that both players are at a higher level than he is. But is the gap _THAT_ large that these two players went #1 and #3 in a strong 2013 draft and Ehlers is widely considered to go #6-#8 in a draft that is widely considered much weaker than 2013, especially at the top?
Maybe I am overrating Ehlers or underrating his size/weight concern (163 lbs is light) but it just _seems_ to me that he should be given more consideration as a top pick in 2014 given how well he has produced in similar circumstances (team, league) to the previous #1 and #3 picks.
Hopefully someone who has watched all 3 play in the Q can shed some light on this gap for me. Mea culpa, my viewings of Mackinnon are limited to the Mem Cup last year (he was amazing) and Drouin to the same tournament and this year's WJC. I've not seen Ehlers play live and have only seen highlight vids.