Prospect Info: "Because it's never too early" - 2014 NHL Draft discussion

[JC Numminen]

1st: 25.0%
2nd: 18.8%
3rd: 14.2%
4th: 10.7%
5th: 8.1%
6th: 6.2%
7th: 4.7%
8th: 3.6%
9th: 2.7%
10th: 2.1%
11th: 1.5%
12th: 1.1%
13th: 0.8%
14th: 0.5%

So if we finish 8th last, we'd have a 3.6% chance.

I think I may explode if we managed to win the lottery. It would be awesome to argue about whether or not we want Ekblad, Draisaitl or Reinhart.

 

[drumzan]

Jets are still technically on pace to draft 6th. Have to go second decimal place...

Jets = 83.06493506
Hurricanes = 83.07894737
Predators = 83.07894737

The one thing the Jets have going for themselves is ROW. I believe it's first tiebreaker. Jets have 27. All the other teams ahead of their slot have more, except they're tied with the Sens (Sens have 2 less games played).

Jets average just barely over 5 points per 5 games, so law of averages says they'll go 2-2-1 over final 5 games.

 

[Whileee]

Jets are still technically on pace to draft 6th. Have to go second decimal place...

Jets = 83.06493506
Hurricanes = 83.07894737
Predators = 83.07894737

The one thing the Jets have going for themselves is ROW. I believe it's first tiebreaker. Jets have 27. All the other teams ahead of their slot have more, except they're tied with the Sens (Sens have 2 less games played).

Jets average just barely over 5 points per 5 games, so law of averages says they'll go 2-2-1 over final 5 games.

I'd be fine if the Jets went 2-2-1 like this....

Home: Pens (SOL) (not attending)
Away: Leafs (W) (schadenfreude)
Home: Wild (L) (not attending)
Home: Bruins (W) (attending)
Away: Flames (L) (who cares? let the kids play)

 

[CaptainChef]

Believe me, Nylander is a way more talented player than Ehlers. I haven't seen Kapanen play since the U17's last year where he was decent.

Pulled this interesting post from the Vancouver draft forum. I really think Ehlers is a steal anywhere beyond top 5 in ths year's draft

********
Wanted to ask some of the posters here who may have regularly watch the Q about the following 3 players:

Nathan Mackinnon
Draft stats:
Size: 6'0
Weight: 180 lbs
Birthdate: 1995-09-01
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
GPG: 0.73
APG: 0.98
PPG: 1.71

Going into the draft: Universally considered a top 2 pick leading up to a strong 2013, ultimately went 1st and is having a tremendous NHL campaign. Would have been a slam-dunk, no-brainer 1st OA in 2014.

Jonathan Drouin
Draft stats:
Size: 5'11
Weight: 185 lbs
Birthdate: 1995-03-28
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
GPG: 0.84
APG: 1.31
PPG: 2.14

Going into the draft: Widely considered the most purely skilled player in the stacked 2013 draft, some size and minor skating questions but was always expected to be one of the top 3-4 players taken. Would have also been a slam-dunk consensus #1 OA in 2014.

Nikolaj Ehlers
Draft stats:
Size: 6'0
Weight: 163 lbs
Birthdate: 1996-02-14
Team: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)
GPG: 0.78
APG: 0.87
PPG: 1.66

Going into the draft: General consensus is he will be taken in the #6-8 range with a modest chance of breaking into the top 5 and an equally modest chance of slipping to #9 or 10.



So my question is why the huge gap between these 3 players? Whenever Ehlers is discussed, the most common concerns are his size and inflated stats from playing in the QMJHL. Yet the #1 and #3 OA picks in a very strong 2013 draft both play for the same team and in the same inflated league and neither are significantly bigger (though both were heavier at the same age). In terms of age, Mackinnon was about 6 months younger than either Drouin and Ehlers which is a plus, but Mackinnon was also in his second season in the Q. In terms of skills, Mackinnon had off-the-charts skating and high end vision, hands, and compete. Ehlers is described as also having elite skating (not quite as explosive) and comparable vision and hands. In terms of production, Ehlers is very close to Mackinnon's draft year though a good notch below Drouin. It is worth noting though that Mackinnon and Drouin played together while Ehlers and Drouin generally do not.

So my question is not why Ehlers is ranked below Mackinnon and Drouin; it is fairly clear that both players are at a higher level than he is. But is the gap _THAT_ large that these two players went #1 and #3 in a strong 2013 draft and Ehlers is widely considered to go #6-#8 in a draft that is widely considered much weaker than 2013, especially at the top?

Maybe I am overrating Ehlers or underrating his size/weight concern (163 lbs is light) but it just _seems_ to me that he should be given more consideration as a top pick in 2014 given how well he has produced in similar circumstances (team, league) to the previous #1 and #3 picks.

Hopefully someone who has watched all 3 play in the Q can shed some light on this gap for me. Mea culpa, my viewings of Mackinnon are limited to the Mem Cup last year (he was amazing) and Drouin to the same tournament and this year's WJC. I've not seen Ehlers play live and have only seen highlight vids.

 

[StronGeer]

I'd be fine if the Jets went 2-2-1 like this....

Home: Pens (SOL) (not attending)
Away: Leafs (W) (schadenfreude)
Home: Wild (L) (not attending)
Home: Bruins (W) (attending)
Away: Flames (L) (who cares? let the kids play)

And I'll be at the Flames game. Looking forward to a very apathetic atmosphere, and just wanting to see some fun hockey. Defence out the window.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Yes the gap is larger and here is why

1. His size. He is a slight player right now. He uses his speed and skill to beat junior players. The question is if he doesn't get bigger quickly is will he be able to do what he does in junior and have it translate to pro.

2. Is Ehlers a product of playing with Drouin? Possibly. You always need to watch players closely when they play with guys who are top end like Drouin when they put up numbers that Ehlers did.

3. He comes from a non traditional hockey nation. While this is becoming less important it is still a factor in how good he will become.


I have Ehlers in my top 10. I have him going after Ekblad,Reinahart,Bennett,Dal Colle and Draisaitl. He reminds me alot like fellow Dane Michael Boedker.

 

[QuietContrarian]

Im not going to get into this whole discussion

I was just trying to lay some facts..

I get to watch Ehlers regularly on tv. And Nylander too.. I have watched both live.
And all im going to say, is that anyone saying Nylander is waaay more talented, I could not disagree more.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I hear Nylander is quite the prima donna from a few scouts. They say he might be the most talented player in the draft but he will fall draft day because of his attitude

 

[Whileee]

I hear Nylander is quite the prima donna from a few scouts. They say he might be the most talented player in the draft but he will fall draft day because of his attitude

... thoughts on Kapanen? Ritchie? Perlini?

 

[ps241]

I hear Nylander is quite the prima donna from a few scouts. They say he might be the most talented player in the draft but he will fall draft day because of his attitude

That's disappointing I will add him to my talented but toxic pile with Virtanen.

 

[CaptainChef]

Yes the gap is larger and here is why

1. His size. He is a slight player right now. He uses his speed and skill to beat junior players. The question is if he doesn't get bigger quickly is will he be able to do what he does in junior and have it translate to pro.

2. Is Ehlers a product of playing with Drouin? Possibly. You always need to watch players closely when they play with guys who are top end like Drouin when they put up numbers that Ehlers did.

3. He comes from a non traditional hockey nation. While this is becoming less important it is still a factor in how good he will become.


I have Ehlers in my top 10. I have him going after Ekblad,Reinahart,Bennett,Dal Colle and Draisaitl. He reminds me alot like fellow Dane Michael Boedker.

If you read the long post above, I found the line below interesting in regards to your second point. Also in regards to size, he is very close to 6 feet tall and may get there. I'm sure as he matures he will easily put on 15 lbs to get to 180. I'd far rather take my chances on a guy like that than on those tall, 220-230 lb guys who can dominate in juniors because of their size advantage but fail to dominate in the NHL.
**********
It is worth noting though that Mackinnon and Drouin played together while Ehlers and Drouin generally do not.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

... thoughts on Kapanen? Ritchie? Perlini?

I like Kapanen a lot. I was able to watch a few of his games this year. Lots of talent and just a great work ethic like his dad. He is a more skilled version of his old man.

I am Ritchie fan too. I think there is a question of his upside. Is he more Milan Lucic or is he more Zach Kassian?

Perlini is a real solid player. Reminds of Jeff Carter. Really good size and a great skater, very effortless. He can hold on to the puck for a long time and comes back hard to his own zone

 

[Joe Hallenback]

If you read the long post above, I found this interesting in regards to your second point
**********
It is worth noting though that Mackinnon and Drouin played together while Ehlers and Drouin generally do not.

Yes, but it means that he won't see the quality of defenders that Drouin does then. Does he excel because he plays against weaker competition?

 

[Huffer]

I like Kapanen a lot. I was able to watch a few of his games this year. Lots of talent and just a great work ethic like his dad. He is a more skilled version of his old man.

I am Ritchie fan too. I think there is a question of his upside. Is he more Milan Lucic or is he more Zach Kassian?

Perlini is a real solid player. Reminds of Jeff Carter. Really good size and a great skater, very effortless. He can hold on to the puck for a long time and comes back hard to his own zone

Any concerns from scouts about Perlini's second half, and disappointing playoffs?

 

[Boreal]

I do not want Nylander in a Jets uniform. I'd prefer to watch another team try to develop him into a top tier player. I'll probably sound crazy in five years, but I'd much rather have Kapanen or Ritchie over Nylander.

 

[mondo3]

Let's save our lottery "luck" for next draft

 

[QuietContrarian]

Yes, but it means that he won't see the quality of defenders that Drouin does then. Does he excel because he plays against weaker competition?

When Drouin has been injured or out for the WJC, ehlers has been put on the 1st line and has played some of his best hockey. Really stepped up.

They have also played a few times on the 1st line together.

 

[untouchable21]

Yes the gap is larger and here is why

1. His size. He is a slight player right now. He uses his speed and skill to beat junior players. The question is if he doesn't get bigger quickly is will he be able to do what he does in junior and have it translate to pro.

2. Is Ehlers a product of playing with Drouin? Possibly. You always need to watch players closely when they play with guys who are top end like Drouin when they put up numbers that Ehlers did.

3. He comes from a non traditional hockey nation. While this is becoming less important it is still a factor in how good he will become.


I have Ehlers in my top 10. I have him going after Ekblad,Reinahart,Bennett,Dal Colle and Draisaitl. He reminds me alot like fellow Dane Michael Boedker.

I see Ehlers as having a lot more natural skill than Boedker and I am a Boedker fan. Boedker's game in junior was a little more well rounded due in part to being a 200lb player, but he was not as offensively gifted or as dangerous on a shift to shift basis.

That's not to say Boedker wasn't dangerous because he was very good for that Kitchener team.

Either way, I'd be thrilled to have a Boedker type on the JETS.

 

[ps241]

I wonder with Zinger spending a good chunk of time in St. John's if he might have had a chance to get a good long look at Ehlers (Scouting). I know St John's and Halifax are separated by a large body of water but do flights from St John's connect in Halifax regularly? I would think with such a hot prospect that is a riser like Ehlers Craig would spend some time overlapping with TNSE's scouting team in the Maritimes.

 

[truck]

Any concerns from scouts about Perlini's second half, and disappointing playoffs?

Perlini's first half was a huge surprise to a lot of people.

I wonder with him how much a hot first half could inflate his value beyond the story of the 2nd half and every year previous.

 

[Boreal]

I wouldn't hate to have Perlini...

Reinhart
Draisaitl
Bennett
Ekblad
Dal Colle
Ritchie
Kapanen
Ehlers
Fleury
Nylander**
Goldobin***

But the above 11 are all players based on ability that I would take over Perlini. I might take Perlini over Nylander on attitude and ability to engage at a physical level beyond pee wee, as well as over Goldobin based on KHL concerns.

 

[drumzan]

Canes won, Leafs winning...things going well for draft positioning.

 

[Channelcat]

Canes won, Leafs winning...things going well for draft positioning.

We should end up 6th. You would think Nashville should pass us. They better, we are following the Nashville model afterall.

 

[ps241]

This was an important night for us....clutch loss at the right time. If we actually get the 6th pick and land a beaut it will be owed in large part to Pavs. The irony is not lost on me.

 

[Channelcat]

This was an important night for us....clutch loss at the right time. If we actually get the 6th pick and land a beaut it will be owed in large part to Pavs. The irony is not lost on me.

He is totally clutch. Just when things were looking positive and our backs were to the wall.........he comes through like a champ. I will never doubt him again.