Confirmed with Link: Barbashev re-signs 2yr/ 2.25 AAV

[Memento]

I'm fine with Barbashev on the fourth line, and I'm fine with this signing.

 

[Tyler Durden]

What is everyone's thoughts on Barbashev so far this year? 5 games. 3 goals. 2 assists! Not bad!

 

[shpongle falls]

What is everyone's thoughts on Barbashev so far this year? 5 games. 3 goals. 2 assists! Not bad!

He's in the zone right now for sure, playing great hockey with Thomas and Tarasenko.

 

[Tyler Durden]

He's in the zone right now for sure, playing great hockey with Thomas and Tarasenko.

I really like that line!

 

[HighNote]

It's crazy to think that when Barbashev is "filling in" on the 3rd line, he's actually playing where he belongs. The guy is a solid to high end 3rd liner playing on the 4th line. I don't think he could keep up this production over a full year in the middle 6, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 20+ goals and 40-50 points. Our forward depth is absolutely insane.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Soooo. What are our thoughts on the deal currently? Seems pretty good value atm.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Soooo. What are our thoughts on the deal currently? Seems pretty good value atm.

More term please

 

[BuLLeT1291]

At this rate he is going to pot 30 and price himself right on out of here in 2 years lol

 

[bleedblue1223]

If he produces at a top 6 rate away from Buchnevich and Tarasenko, then he forces Perron out, and makes things interesting as his deal expires the same time as O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Thomas, and Kyrou. Tarasenko is probably traded or walks.

I'm trying to think of some historical comps that breakout like this after years of quality 3rd/4th line production. It's not like he's gone from bad to good, just a good bottom 6 to a good top 6. Can be be a 50+ point winger/center in the top 6 moving forward, that's a key question. We could probably keep him for around what Saad costs, which if Barbie maintains close to this production, that would be great value.

Marchand was already a good 2nd line player before his later explosion elite status, so not sure if that's a great comp. Maybe Tom Wilson, but not sure on that one either. Maybe Rust in Pittsburgh, that one feels a little better. So, maybe his development this year isn't as outlandish as I previously thought.

 

[Stealth JD]

He got better.
He's easily exceeding his contract at this point; partly because of usage and partly because he found another gear to his game that he had previously never shown. Great for him.
It still doesn't mean he had a great two seasons following the Cup-win. He didn't. But he's lining himself up for a very nice payday after next season if he can keep this level of play up for 1.5 more years. Easy-peasy, right? If that happens, not sure the Blues will be able to afford him, but it's certainly a good problem to have.

Nice on the organization for finding top-6 production at a bottom-6 salary. That helps teams win Cups.

 

[MissouriMook]

I see Sean Couturier's expiring deal as a comp for Barbashev, adjusting for cap inflation. The timing is a little different as Couts was a couple years younger at the time he signed his deal and didn't really have his offensive breakout until a couple of years after the deal was signed, but it feels like a similar transformation if the trend continues.

I could see Barby getting 5-6 years in term and close to $5M AAV if he continues to roll, but I don't think he breaks the bank even if he continues to be a 50-60 point player.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I see Sean Couturier's expiring deal as a comp for Barbashev, adjusting for cap inflation. The timing is a little different as Couts was a couple years younger at the time he signed his deal and didn't really have his offensive breakout until a couple of years after the deal was signed, but it feels like a similar transformation if the trend continues.

I could see Barby getting 5-6 years in term and close to $5M AAV if he continues to roll, but I don't think he breaks the bank even if he continues to be a 50-60 point player.

Couturier was always an elite shutdown center though, and a higher draft pedigree, where Philly was making a calculated decision giving him a long-term deal before a breakout thinking they'd get a great value at some point in it.

 

[Brian39]

Can be be a 50+ point winger/center in the top 6 moving forward, that's a key question. We could probably keep him for around what Saad costs, which if Barbie maintains close to this production, that would be great value.

I could see Barby getting 5-6 years in term and close to $5M AAV if he continues to roll, but I don't think he breaks the bank even if he continues to be a 50-60 point player.

It's time to recalibrate our thoughts about what Barby is doing (again). He's not playing like a 50-60 point player. He's been well above that. The question is no longer whether he can be a 50-60 point guy with top 6 usage. It's whether he can be a 65+ point guy with that usage.

He's currently on pace for 73 points. Take out Monday's 4 point night and he's on pace for 66 points. You have to take out his last 10 games to get him below a 59 point pace. You have to take out his last 15 games to get him below a 50 point pace (49.9 points). Taking out these games essentially removes his entire sample size of top 6 usage. Because for the first 19 games of the year he was playing just under 16 minutes a night. He had a few nights in the top 6, but was pretty much a 3rd line guy. He was 9th among Blues forwards in TOI per game, 6th in even strength TOI per game, and 10th in PP time per game. This was achieved getting some 2nd line deployment as injuries hit, but it is very difficult to say that he was getting top 6 usage. Arguably middle 6 at even strength, but with a clear lean toward 3rd line usage and with almost no PP time (6:30 total). He was on pace for 43 points in this 3rd line usage.

In the last 19 games since then, he is playing 18:21 a night and he has 24 points. 4th in TOI per game, 5th in even strength TOI per game and 3rd in PP TOI per game. This is his top 6 usage and he's put in a 103 point pace over these last 19 games. A 91 point pace if you want to remove the 4 point night. This is obviously not sustainable. I don't think he's a 100 point player if he gets consistent top 6 usage. But I point it out because there is a pretty clear cutoff point from the time he was used as a 3rd liner to the time he was given a top 6 shot AND that cutoff point is at about the midway point of the season. He's at a 65-75 point pace with mixed top/middle 6 usage and he's dominated in the top 6.

The question of whether he can continue to be a 50-60 point player or maintain his play as a 50+ point guy in the top 6 doesn't accurately capture what he's doing. The question is whether he can continue to be a 65+ point top 6 player. I'm not sold that he's a driver of a top 6 line. I'm not sold that he will be worth whatever next contract he gets. And I think there is a decent chance that the best thing the Blues could do this summer is to trade him for a boatload to a team that can and does extend him.

But for now, we simply need to reset our opinions on him. He's not looking like a 50-60 point guy this year. He's looking like a 65+ point player.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It's time to recalibrate our thoughts about what Barby is doing (again). He's not playing like a 50-60 point player. He's been well above that. The question is no longer whether he can be a 50-60 point guy with top 6 usage. It's whether he can be a 65+ point guy with that usage.

He's currently on pace for 73 points. Take out Monday's 4 point night and he's on pace for 66 points. You have to take out his last 10 games to get him below a 59 point pace. You have to take out his last 15 games to get him below a 50 point pace (49.9 points). Taking out these games essentially removes his entire sample size of top 6 usage. Because for the first 19 games of the year he was playing just under 16 minutes a night. He had a few nights in the top 6, but was pretty much a 3rd line guy. He was 9th among Blues forwards in TOI per game, 6th in even strength TOI per game, and and 10th in PP time per game. This was achieved getting some 2nd line deployment as injuries hit, but it is very difficult to say that he was getting top 6 usage. Arguably middle 6, but leaning toward 3rd line usage and barely getting on the 2nd PP unit. He was on pace for 43 points in this 3rd line usage.

In the last 19 games since then, he is playing 18:21 a night and he has 24 points. This is his top 6 usage and he's put in a 103 point pace over these last 19 games. This is obviously not sustainable. I don't think he's a 100 point player if he gets consistent top 6 usage. But I point it out because there is a pretty clear cutoff point from the time he was used as a 3rd liner to the time he was given a top 6 shot AND that cutoff point is at about the midway point of the season. He's at a 65-75 point pace with mixed top/middle 6 usage and he's dominated in the top 6.

The question of whether he can continue to be a 50-60 point player or maintain his play as a 50+ point guy in the top 6 doesn't accurately capture what he's doing. The question is whether he can continue to be a 65+ point top 6 player. I'm not sold that he's a driver of a top 6 line. I'm not sold that he will be worth whatever next contract he gets. And I think there is a decent chance that the best thing the Blues could do this summer is to trade him for a boatload to a team that can and does extend him.

But for now, we simply need to reset our opinions on him. He's not looking like a 50-60 point guy this year. He's looking like a 65+ point player.

I don't even know how to respond to this because you are completely missing the point of what we posted. We aren't idiots, we know exactly what he is on pace for this season. What we are doing is projecting a reasonable total for next season that represents him still hitting that next level, but coming back down to earth a bit. A 50-60 point range is pretty reasonable for that.

Since he has another season on his deal, we will know for sure if this is a wildly unsustainable season where everything just went right, or if he's hit that next level and can stay in the top 6 and produce solid numbers. The question Army has to ask for next season, is if Barbashev's development is enough to move on from Perron, trade Tarasenko, and use Barbashev as one of their replacements without looking outside of the organization. If he sustains the success, then we'll be fine, but if he drops down somewhat significantly, then we'll be hurting a bit.

 

[joe galiba]

It's time to recalibrate our thoughts about what Barby is doing (again). He's not playing like a 50-60 point player. He's been well above that. The question is no longer whether he can be a 50-60 point guy with top 6 usage. It's whether he can be a 65+ point guy with that usage.

He's currently on pace for 73 points. Take out Monday's 4 point night and he's on pace for 66 points. You have to take out his last 10 games to get him below a 59 point pace. You have to take out his last 15 games to get him below a 50 point pace (49.9 points). Taking out these games essentially removes his entire sample size of top 6 usage. Because for the first 19 games of the year he was playing just under 16 minutes a night. He had a few nights in the top 6, but was pretty much a 3rd line guy. He was 9th among Blues forwards in TOI per game, 6th in even strength TOI per game, and 10th in PP time per game. This was achieved getting some 2nd line deployment as injuries hit, but it is very difficult to say that he was getting top 6 usage. Arguably middle 6 at even strength, but with a clear lean toward 3rd line usage and with almost no PP time (6:30 total). He was on pace for 43 points in this 3rd line usage.

In the last 19 games since then, he is playing 18:21 a night and he has 24 points. 4th in TOI per game, 5th in even strength TOI per game and 3rd in PP TOI per game. This is his top 6 usage and he's put in a 103 point pace over these last 19 games. A 91 point pace if you want to remove the 4 point night. This is obviously not sustainable. I don't think he's a 100 point player if he gets consistent top 6 usage. But I point it out because there is a pretty clear cutoff point from the time he was used as a 3rd liner to the time he was given a top 6 shot AND that cutoff point is at about the midway point of the season. He's at a 65-75 point pace with mixed top/middle 6 usage and he's dominated in the top 6.

The question of whether he can continue to be a 50-60 point player or maintain his play as a 50+ point guy in the top 6 doesn't accurately capture what he's doing. The question is whether he can continue to be a 65+ point top 6 player. I'm not sold that he's a driver of a top 6 line. I'm not sold that he will be worth whatever next contract he gets. And I think there is a decent chance that the best thing the Blues could do this summer is to trade him for a boatload to a team that can and does extend him.

But for now, we simply need to reset our opinions on him. He's not looking like a 50-60 point guy this year. He's looking like a 65+ point player.

some guys thrive as the wingman, and guys who do drive the play need someone who can fit with them
barby's skill set is letting him shine as the complementary piece this year

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Well I'm glad there are two years on his deal so any decision isn't immediate. Can't say I expect him to sustain anything over 40 point pace after this year. I'm having fun for now and that's all I need from him.

Although Barbeshev is pure chaos on the ice and I can't help but laugh. I saw an Instagram post/story about three weeks ago showing his evolving hockey metrics. At the time, he was in the 98th percentile at generating offense and yet was in the 2nd percentile in defensive metrics. To me, that's just hilarious.

 

[Brian39]

I don't even know how to respond to this because you are completely missing the point of what we posted. We aren't idiots, we know exactly what he is on pace for this season. What we are doing is projecting a reasonable total for next season that represents him still hitting that next level, but coming back down to earth a bit. A 50-60 point range is pretty reasonable for that.

Since he has another season on his deal, we will know for sure if this is a wildly unsustainable season where everything just went right, or if he's hit that next level and can stay in the top 6 and produce solid numbers. The question Army has to ask for next season, is if Barbashev's development is enough to move on from Perron, trade Tarasenko, and use Barbashev as one of their replacements without looking outside of the organization. If he sustains the success, then we'll be fine, but if he drops down somewhat significantly, then we'll be hurting a bit.

Both of you were talking about re-signing him for Saad money if maintains/continues a level slightly below his current play. Both of you are talking about 50-60 points as if that is the reasonable outlook if comes down to Earth a bit. My entire point is that 50-60 points would be him crashing back down to Earth. Coming down to Earth a bit from what he's done in a top 6 role sees him as still easily exceeding 50-60 points and Brandon Saad money.

He's played 15+ minutes in 31 games this year and has 32 points in those games. He has been a point per game player when we have deployed him as a top 6 player. Coming back down to Earth a bit would be going down to a 65-70 point player in that role, not a 50-60 point guy. I don't know how sustainable his play is. I'm very confident that he's not the 95+ point guy he's been over the last 2 months. I'm confident that he's not a point per game guy. But we've reached a point where anything less than a 60 point pace would be massive regression. It's absolutely possible (and might be likely).

All I'm saying is that his play this year is top 50 in the league and that a regression to a 50-60 point guy would be substantial. When we're talking about "can he keep this up (even with a slight dip in play and the expected regression in shooting percentage)," that would put him as a top line forward, not a middle 6 forward. One step back from where he's been at this season is a $6M+ player as a 27 year old UFA.

Barby is the team's leading scorer (by goals and points) since Thanksgiving. He's 12th league wide in both of those categories over that stretch. We're still talking about him like he's been a good complimentary top 6 player even though he has been elite for 2 months. I don't think he's an elite player, my point is simply that we are largely overlooking just how damn good he's been.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Both of you were talking about re-signing him for Saad money if maintains/continues a level slightly below his current play. Both of you are talking about 50-60 points as if that is the reasonable outlook if comes down to Earth a bit. My entire point is that 50-60 points would be him crashing back down to Earth. Coming down to Earth a bit from what he's done in a top 6 role sees him as still easily exceeding 50-60 points and Brandon Saad money.

He's played 15+ minutes in 31 games this year and has 32 points in those games. He has been a point per game player when we have deployed him as a top 6 player. Coming back down to Earth a bit would be going down to a 65-70 point player in that role, not a 50-60 point guy. I don't know how sustainable his play is. I'm very confident that he's not the 95+ point guy he's been over the last 2 months. I'm confident that he's not a point per game guy. But we've reached a point where anything less than a 60 point pace would be massive regression. It's absolutely possible (and might be likely).

All I'm saying is that his play this year is top 50 in the league and that a regression to a 50-60 point guy would be substantial. When we're talking about "can he keep this up (even with a slight dip in play and the expected regression in shooting percentage)," that would put him as a top line forward, not a middle 6 forward. One step back from where he's been at this season is a $6M+ player as a 27 year old UFA.

Barby is the team's leading scorer (by goals and points) since Thanksgiving. He's 12th league wide in both of those categories over that stretch. We're still talking about him like he's been a good complimentary top 6 player even though he has been elite for 2 months. I don't think he's an elite player, my point is simply that we are largely overlooking just how damn good he's been.

His career 82 game pace prior to this season was 27 points. Our version of him coming back down to earth is still doubling his career production prior to this season. If you want to act like this 38 game version of Barbashev is permanently the new version going forward and characterize doubling his previous career production as crashing back down to earth, then I have some bridges to sell you.

He has a PDO of 105.8%, that is going to come crashing down, maybe not this season, but that's not a sustainable number. If you are going to pencil him in for ~70 points next season, then you are mostly likely going to be very disappointed.

I even feel very optimistic that he produces at a 50-60 point level.

 

[MissouriMook]

... My entire point is that 50-60 points would be him crashing back down to Earth...

Come on, really? I just took a simple approach and broke down his season to date into 10-10-10-8 game stretches. In the first 10 games he scored 7 points, a 57.4 points per 82 game pace. Games 11-20 he had 4 points, a 32.8 point pace. Games 21-30 he scored 12 points, a 98.4 point pace. Games 31-38 he scored 11 points, a 112.75 point pace. Prior to this season his most prolific output was a 31 point pace two season ago. I know that prior to this season, and in fact prior to his recent stretch of 18 games, he was not used in a Top 6 role. I just don't know how you expect me to believe that his failure to sustain his results from the last 18 games and a regression to 6-7 points every 10 games is "crashing down to Earth." There were 73 forwards in the entire league last season that played 30 or more games and averaged a pace of more than 60 points per 82 games. A guy who puts up 50-60 points a year is a solid NHL forward.

"Crashing down to Earth?"

 

[Brian39]

His career 82 game pace prior to this season was 27 points. Our version of him coming back down to earth is still doubling his career production prior to this season. If you want to act like this 38 game version of Barbashev is permanently the new version going forward and characterize doubling his previous career production as crashing back down to earth, then I have some bridges to sell you.

That is a completely different discussion than what he will cost "if he maintains close to this production" or "continues to be a 50-60 point player."

 

[Brian39]

Come on, really? I just took a simple approach and broke down his season to date into 10-10-10-8 game stretches. In the first 10 games he scored 7 points, a 57.4 points per 82 game pace. Games 11-20 he had 4 points, a 32.8 point pace. Games 21-30 he scored 12 points, a 98.4 point pace. Games 31-38 he scored 11 points, a 112.75 point pace. Prior to this season his most prolific output was a 31 point pace two season ago. I know that prior to this season, and in fact prior to his recent stretch of 18 games, he was not used in a Top 6 role. I just don't know how you expect me to believe that his failure to sustain his results from the last 18 games and a regression to 6-7 points every 10 games is "crashing down to Earth." There were 73 forwards in the entire league last season that played 30 or more games and averaged a pace of more than 60 points per 82 games. A guy who puts up 50-60 points a year is a solid NHL forward.

"Crashing down to Earth?"

My point is not that a 50-60 point forward isn't a good player. My point is not that I would be let down if that is what Barby is. My point is not that Barby is unlikely to come crashing down to Earth.

My point is that going from his current level of play to a 50-60 point guy would be a substantial (if not expected) regression. He wouldn't "continue being a 50-60 point guy" he woulf be (expectedly) regressing substantially to a 50-60 point guy. Such a dropoff, while expected, would be substantial. My point is that through the last 2 months we have continued talking about Barby's current play as that of a top 6 forward when the reality is that he has been playing like a borderline superstar.

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid both came crashing back down to Earth about 10 games ago. That doesn't make them anything less than still elite players that every team would love to have. It just means that their still-superstar level play isn't close to what they were doing for the previous 50 games.

Kyrou came crashing down to Earth in the second half of last season.

I think it is more likely than not that Barby will in fact come crashing down to Earth.

My only point is that we are still talking about what Barby has been doing in the context of a good top 6 forward, when the reality is that he's been the teams best offensive player for 2 months.

 

[Bluesguru]

Bargainshev——- That’s what this deal has turned into!

 

[BlueDream]

Remember that one year when Steen scored at a 40-goal clip and then never came close ever again?

Yeah, that’s what this is. Steen was a way smarter and better player than Barbashev, too. I’d be absolutely shocked if Barbashev ever became a consistent 50-point player.

If in a year from now his camp is mentioning a number than begins with a 5, or even a 4, he should be shipped out immediately. That would be a disgusting contract.

 

[Stealth JD]

Blues are going to have to do with Barbashev what the Rangers did with Buchnevich; they simply won't be able to give him $5M+/year that he'll command if he proves himself as top-6 caliber. The irony will be amusing.

 

[BlueMed]

The good thing is, I view this team's window to be definitely open this season and the next if we can upgrade our defense by the deadline. Barby is signed for 2.25 M for these 2 seasons. If he can hit 50+ points next season, maybe he'll be worth resigning afterwards at the right price.