I don't think that all or even most Ontario Sabre fans will just jump ship and become Hamilton fans. It's called loyalty.
Right, but you're talking about a long-tenure stay. If one percent of Sabres fans are would-be Hamilton fans, at $40 a ticket, it's $3.2 million a year the Sabres lose. Which doesn't seem like much. Even $3.2 million over 30 years is less than a $100 million fee (not counting any inflation! ha!)
Consider that the Islanders have been in the NY Rangers market for 37 years, are locked in another seven and could be there for another 100. Every single NY Islanders fan EVER probably would be a Rangers fan if the Isles never came along. I've spent
thousands on the Islanders in my life, and I didn't exist in 1972 when the Islanders paid a $4 million fee.
You are talking about generations of fans. Sure, some loyal fans in Canada have always rooted for the Sabres, and still will.
But what about their kids? A 20-year old in St Catherine's sticks with the Sabres, makes a trip there a year and buys a ticket.
In 10 years his son becomes a Hamilton fan, now for Christmas, they give the kid a Hamilton sweater instead of Sabres sweater. They make one trip a year, but now it to Hamilton instead of Buffalo.
They will feel the impact for generations.