Speculation: Baertschi to Montreal

[HuGo Sham]

sven is much better than kovalchuk. this guy should be on an NHL team. it's ridiculous how he's toiling in the AHL.

and you're never wrong!

 

[StreetHawk]

sven is much better than kovalchuk. this guy should be on an NHL team. it's ridiculous how he's toiling in the AHL.

It’s his contract keeping him there. Tarasenko and Geuntzal are out til the end of the season and no calls coming from the Blues or Pens. They don’t want the extra year left.
If Sven pulled a Kovy and terminated his contract he would get signed shortly after but like Kovy at a discounted rate from what he is currently making.

 

[Captain Mountain]

The bolded makes no sense.

Of course a team would prefer a free asset (Kovalchuk as a free agent) over giving up something in a trade. That has no bearing on the latter's value. I really am having a difficult time following your logic because it makes no sense.

The bolded is not true. Teams tend to prefer better players over freer players. Cost matters as well, but if teams prioritized free assets, then trades would be nearly non-existent and most teams would load up by going after players in other leagues.

So unless Vancouver was overvaluing Baertschi (and I find that hard to believe), then he probably doesn't have the value of a free player like Kovalchuk (down to his contract likely) or isn't seen as good as Kovalchuk.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The bolded is not true. Teams tend to prefer better players over freer players. Cost matters as well, but if teams prioritized free assets, then trades would be nearly non-existent and most teams would load up by going after players in other leagues.

So unless Vancouver was overvaluing Baertschi (and I find that hard to believe), then he probably doesn't have the value of a free player like Kovalchuk (down to his contract likely) or isn't seen as good as Kovalchuk.

I guess we fundamentally disagree on the bolded. Look at how many free agents are signed on July 1st vs. how many players are traded over the course of a year. Free agents are a much more popular and favourable route than making trades.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I guess we fundamentally disagree on the bolded. Look at how many free agents are signed on July 1st vs. how many players are traded over the course of a year. Free agents are a much more popular and favourable route than making trades.

Free Agency is inherently more common as a result of how the league and contracts work. Signing free agents is easier than making trades. And teams still make a lot of trades moves to acquire players they think will make their team better. Hell, this offseason your favourite team traded for a winger when they could have waited a week and gotten a winger on free agency.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Baertschi is untradeable this season, but I think he *might* garner interest in September or October of this year (ie when teams have signed the players that they have needed to sign, and can better project what their needs are and if they can accommodate more cap).

I could see Baertschi going to Detroit next season.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Free Agency is inherently more common as a result of how the league and contracts work. Signing free agents is easier than making trades. And teams still make a lot of trades moves to acquire players they think will make their team better. Hell, this offseason your favourite team traded for a winger when they could have waited a week and gotten a winger on free agency.

It doesn't change the fact that free agent signings are probably close to 10 times more prevalent than trades are. It's because teams prefer not to give up assets, that is the number one reason.

Bringing up the Miller trade is anecdotal evidence. Trades happen, they just happen far less often than free agent signings since there is a much greater risk to teams making trades.

 

[Captain Mountain]

It doesn't change the fact that free agent signings are probably close to 10 times more prevalent than trades are. It's because teams prefer not to give up assets, that is the number one reason.

Bringing up the Miller trade is anecdotal evidence. Trades happen, they just happen far less often than free agent signings since there is a much greater risk to teams making trades.

Minor trades usually have no real risk. A day before signing Kovalchuk Montreal essentially swapped a 4th and Reilly for Scandella, a 5th and an AHLer. That's basically no risk. And major signings have serious risk (and downsides) too (see Alzner, Karl and Eriksson, Loui).

Signings are more common because of how they work. Players are clearly available and are very highly motivated to sign. Trades are less common because valuation varies and there isn't nearly the same sort of pressure to make a trade as there is to sign a contract. Its not all that complicated.

 

[ImNeverWrong]

It’s his contract keeping him there. Tarasenko and Geuntzal are out til the end of the season and no calls coming from the Blues or Pens. They don’t want the extra year left.
If Sven pulled a Kovy and terminated his contract he would get signed shortly after but like Kovy at a discounted rate from what he is currently making.

I think sven is a 40 to 55 pt player (pro rated to 82 games)...making him a pretty decent scoring 2nd liner. 3.3 million is totally fine especially when scoring should be a premium. The guy maybe injury prone but hes talented and puts up pts. But I digress.

 

[FreeMcdavid]

Baertschi's contract may not be as desirable as a free agent Kovalchuk but there is no way Kovalchuk is better than Baertschi at this point in their career.

Baertschi is still capable of putting up 40-50 pts as in an 82 games. id be surprised if Kovy can do 30 pts.

 

[Bankerguy]

He's an NHL caliber player right now.

Just no space for him as Pearson, Leivo and Virtanen does what he does better.
I think that playing on a 2nd line or even 3rd line, he'd easily be good for 30 - 40 points.

Problem is the fact that he's a 3.3M cap hit NEXT year too....

Canucks should keep him... later in the season or in the playoffs, he may come in very handy. He has established chemistry with Horvat.

It's nice to know that once playoffs roll around, if you lose two middle 6 wingers that combined for 100 points in the regular season ( say Tanner Pearson and Josh Leivo), you can call up Baertschi & Goldobin who would likely replace 80 of those 100 points.

Depth is key in the playoffs. If the Canucks are NOT cap strapped next year, they should hold on to Sven at least until the end of the season

 

[Captain Mountain]

Baertschi's contract may not be as desirable as a free agent Kovalchuk but there is no way Kovalchuk is better than Baertschi at this point in their career.

Baertschi is still capable of putting up 40-50 pts as in an 82 games. id be surprised if Kovy can do 30 pts.

Even if points were the be-all-end-all, the idea that Baertschi is still capable of doing something he's never actually achieved in his entire career, but Kovalchuk is incapable of achieving what he was on pace for before he was benched/had his contract terminated is one hell of a hot take.

 

[FreeMcdavid]

Even if points were the be-all-end-all, the idea that Baertschi is still capable of doing something he's never actually achieved in his entire career, but Kovalchuk is incapable of achieving what he was on pace for before he was benched/had his contract terminated is one hell of a hot take.

If points isnt the end all be all then youre going to be very disappointed with Kovy because the reason he got benched was his lack of effort or desire when he or his team did not have the puck.

MTL signed Kovy for point, period.

and i stand by my point that if both Kovy and Baertschi had the same contract then all NHL GMs would choose Baertschi over Kovi today.

i dont even think Kovy can do what Baertschi is doing in the AHL right now which is 31 pts in 24 games

 

[Captain Mountain]

If points isnt the end all be all then youre going to be very disappointed with Kovy because the reason he got benched was his lack of effort or desire when he or his team did not have the puck.

MTL signed Kovy for point, period.

and i stand by my point that if both Kovy and Baertschi had the same contract then all NHL GMs would choose Baertschi over Kovi today.

i dont even think Kovy can do what Baertschi is doing in the AHL right now which is 31 pts in 24 games

I expect Kovy to play on the powerplay. Nothing else.

But the idea that a 27 year old winger that has had injury problems and generally lousy NHL numbers (especially beyond points) is more valuable than Kovalchuk because he's putting up numbers in the AHL seems pretty crazy.

 

[4Twenty]

Elliotte Friedmen mentioned on headlines that Montreal considered Baertschi before signing Kovalchuk.

Obviously its unlikely to happen now but I guess what it proves is that other teams still consider Baertschi an NHL.

He’s dominated the AHL and now doubt that he could contribute somewhere. Hopefully the Canucks can find a partner and retain some salary. Hate seeing quality players playing below their ability.

Any offers or thoughts? If you think the thread is a bad idea then just click the back button.

Eliotte also mentioned that it didn't get beyond mentioning his name. He was available for free last month when they waived him without even recalling him. It's very likely the Canucks would have to sweeten the pot to get rid of him.

They should just play him in the NHL.

 

[Mike Jones]

Are the Canucks in a position to retain salary? Would Baertschi be more attractive at something around $1.7Million cap hit?

 

[FreeMcdavid]

I expect Kovy to play on the powerplay. Nothing else.

But the idea that a 27 year old winger that has had injury problems and generally lousy NHL numbers (especially beyond points) is more valuable than Kovalchuk because he's putting up numbers in the AHL seems pretty crazy.

Right so Kovy is a PP specialist and a liability .

Baertschi can put up points as well if he was to just play the PP as you put that Kovy will be doing and Beartschi is definitely not a liability defensively.

we can argue all day long about the extra handful of points that Baertschi or Kovy would have more than the other but that doesnt change the fact that Beartschi would still be chosen by almost all GMs if everything was the same contact wise to Kovy.

For the sake of argument, in 82 games today :

Kovy 45 pts , -20
Baertschi 35 pts -5

contracts the same, who would you choose ?

 

[YP44]

Kovalchuk > Baertschi

Kovalchuk @ 1yr $700K > Beartschi @ 2yr $3.4M

 

[FreeMcdavid]

Kovalchuk @ 1yr $700K > Beartschi @ 2yr $3.4M

you dont say?

 

[ole ole]

you dont say?

He does say and he's 100%correct.

 

[ole ole]

Right so Kovy is a PP specialist and a liability .

Baertschi can put up points as well if he was to just play the PP as you put that Kovy will be doing and Beartschi is definitely not a liability defensively.

we can argue all day long about the extra handful of points that Baertschi or Kovy would have more than the other but that doesnt change the fact that Beartschi would still be chosen by almost all GMs if everything was the same contact wise to Kovy.

For the sake of argument, in 82 games today :

Kovy 45 pts , -20
Baertschi 35 pts -5

contracts the same, who would you choose ?

Contracts not the same so your point is moot.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Right so Kovy is a PP specialist and a liability .

Baertschi can put up points as well if he was to just play the PP as you put that Kovy will be doing and Beartschi is definitely not a liability defensively.

we can argue all day long about the extra handful of points that Baertschi or Kovy would have more than the other but that doesnt change the fact that Beartschi would still be chosen by almost all GMs if everything was the same contact wise to Kovy.

For the sake of argument, in 82 games today :

Kovy 45 pts , -20
Baertschi 35 pts -5

contracts the same, who would you choose ?

Kovy. For one, because +/- is a garbage stat that is incredibly misleading at best. For another, because Kovy and Baertschi have pretty similar on-ice defensive impacts.

45 points for Kovy means he's being utilized well and probably playing more motivated. Even at 36 the upside of a guy that Hall of Fame numbers is better than a veteran that never established himself in the NHL.

And even then it doesn't matter, since the contracts aren't even. And when talking about guys who are replacement level players, that's a big deal.

 

[FreeMcdavid]

Kovy. For one, because +/- is a garbage stat that is incredibly misleading at best. For another, because Kovy and Baertschi have pretty similar on-ice defensive impacts.

45 points for Kovy means he's being utilized well and probably playing more motivated. Even at 36 the upside of a guy that Hall of Fame numbers is better than a veteran that never established himself in the NHL.

+/- is not a garbage stat. Its just a stat that is not end all be all but also should not considered garbage.

The biggest defence of why this is a garbage stat is because people always defer to the arguement

"well what if he just stepped on the ice and the other team scores"

From experience both playing and watching, this doesnt happen often. As most knows its a cardinal sin to go for a line change when your team doesnt have the puck or more specifically is back checking. so very rarely will a player just come on and the other scores.

The other side of that too is what about when you get a plus when your team scores when you just touched the ice and had nothing to do with the play, a scenario i find happens more than the vica versa.



either way, +/- tends to balance out and its not a great stat but its also not a garbage stat. its just a stat.

 

[Nucker42]

Eliotte also mentioned that it didn't get beyond mentioning his name. He was available for free last month when they waived him without even recalling him. It's very likely the Canucks would have to sweeten the pot to get rid of him.

They should just play him in the NHL.

I agree, he should be in the nhl..

 

[Captain Mountain]

+/- is not a garbage stat. Its just a stat that is not end all be all but also should not considered garbage.

The biggest defence of why this is a garbage stat is because people always defer to the arguement

"well what if he just stepped on the ice and the other team scores"

From experience both playing and watching, this doesnt happen often. As most knows its a cardinal sin to go for a line change when your team doesnt have the puck or more specifically is back checking. so very rarely will a player just come on and the other scores.

The other side of that too is what about when you get a plus when your team scores when you just touched the ice and had nothing to do with the play, a scenario i find happens more than the vica versa.



either way, +/- tends to balance out and its not a great stat but its also not a garbage stat. its just a stat.

No, the biggest reason that +/- is that it is not coherent and other stats express what its trying to express better.

Its not because of a potential scenario, its that its on-ice goals differential, but only in specific, different game states unevenly distributed.

Just use on ice goal differential at 5v5 or ES.