Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 18-19 part X | Offseason Blues

[forsbergavs32]

Figured I'd get one going.

Click to read more...

 

[Balthazar]

Man that article didn't age well, have a good laugh:

Karlsson's 'a garbage pick,'

The interesting part is Erik Karlsson was listed as 5'10 157 lbs on draft day. That's smaller than Makar by a fair margin.

 

[Murzu]

Trade everyone for everyone

 

[MarkT]

I'll repost something from the last thread to get the conversation going again:

"How can anyone in their right mind be OK with possible regression?"
Because we're still a rebuilding team and the development of our young players and prospects is just as important as the results in the standings to me. I obviously want the Avs to win every game and make the playoffs, but I don't want to hinder the future development of the team in the process. I know you think signing Stastny wouldn't have hindered it, but that's already been discussed.

"What if Ottawa is not as bad as people think, and we end up with a mid first like 12-16 range?"
I think all the Jack Hughes talk isn't entirely serious. It's basically a meme at this point. The fact is, we've already won that trade and pretty much any player we draft with the Ottawa pick will be a great bonus. Nobody is banking the future of this team on Jack Hughes.

Let's say we regress, and miss the playoffs. Why would any potential good UFAs want to come to a middling team with no chance of winning the Cup?
Maybe we miss out on the top ones, but are you claiming that no free agents would ever want to sign here and play with MacKinnon and the rest of our young guys? If we can see that this team has a good future, then so can free agents. And if it genuinely looks like the team doesn't have a good future, then free agents aren't going to fix the problem.

"At some point or another you have to get better for a prolonged period of time."
Yes, and the way to do this is drafting well, developing from within, and filling holes carefully in free agency. I can't think of a single team that signed a top free agent and as a result went from being a rebuilding team to a contender. In fact, the majority of teams who sign top free agents end up regretting the deal.

Also, can everyone please remember that the offseason isn't over and Sakic may not be done making moves.
__________________________________________
Balthazar said:

Sounds like everyone's comments about Vegas last summer.

When will people learn that hockey games aren't won on paper? A tighter locker room after all the **** they got + a decent return for EK + young guys that are trying to prove their worth and that team could very well be a bubble team.

One thing you should keep in mind: Ottawa's management knows that it will look bad if they give us a top 5 pick and I'm pretty damn sure that they are tired of looking bad. Expect them to do everything they can to try to avoid it.​

To me, it all comes down to their goaltending. If Anderson sticks around and has one of his epic seasons, or if they get a good goalie in a trade or something, then they could very easily end up being much better than expected. They might also keep Karlsson, or as you say, get some good players in return for him.

The great thing though from our perspective is that it really doesn't matter. I honestly believe that you could take Ottawa's pick out of the Duchene deal and we still got amazing value for him considering everyone and their mother knew he wanted out of Colorado.

 

[McMetal]

Maybe we miss out on the top ones, but are you claiming that no free agents would ever want to sign here and play with MacKinnon and the rest of our young guys? If we can see that this team has a good future, then so can free agents. And if it genuinely looks like the team doesn't have a good future, then free agents aren't going to fix the problem.

Well, obviously SOME free agents want to sign here, we just added two a week ago. But we literally just learned that despite all the optimism on this board about the future (and Sakic's best efforts), Tavares had zero interest in coming here. And that's after a good season. What about a a bad one? Missing out on another wave of top free agents because we regressed wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would mean that teams around us in the standings will have more options to improve their squads than we will.

This team doesn't necessarily have to improve, but it cannot afford to regress either. Strange to say it but it would actually be easier if we hadn't made the playoffs because that expectation wouldn't be set so high for next year. I get that we're still building, but that doesn't mean taking a step backwards is OK.

 

[MarkT]

Well, obviously SOME free agents want to sign here, we just added two a week ago. But we literally just learned that despite all the optimism on this board about the future (and Sakic's best efforts), Tavares had zero interest in coming here. And that's after a good season. What about a a bad one? Missing out on another wave of top free agents because we regressed wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would mean that teams around us in the standings will have more options to improve their squads than we will.

This team doesn't necessarily have to improve, but it cannot afford to regress either. Strange to say it but it would actually be easier if we hadn't made the playoffs because that expectation wouldn't be set so high for next year. I get that we're still building, but that doesn't mean taking a step backwards is OK.

I think it depends on how you define a step backwards. If MacKinnon and Rantanen's play drops a little or they get injured for long stretches, but most of our young guys and prospects play much better, and we miss the playoffs by a small margin, does that count as a step backwards? I would say no. I would consider it a step forward in the development of what looks to again be the youngest team in the league. To me, a step backward would be if our young guys didn't develop *and* the team as a whole didn't perform. If we're fighting for a playoff spot all the way to the end and our young guys develop then I'll consider the season at least a step forward if not a success.

 

[Raucherhusten]

The Avs are walking on a thin line if you ask me. It's fine by me to have ONE MORE season to develop but that has to be it.

Looks like Sakic struck out on several FA's so he couldn't upgrade our biggest need and thankfully he refused to go full beast mode by signing a bunch of meh players to force things. Stastny still hurts but there is nothing we can do about it now.

The next 12 month will be cruical for the success of our beloved franchise and i really hope Joe is up for the task. He needs to bring in some outside talent if our prospects doesn't improve the way we hope they do. And he needs to have at least a couple of young guns to actually become impact players on this team.

We are still a 50/50 bubble team that can go both ways when circumstances change - way to many ??? still to be solved. We are trending in the right direction but these things can change in a heartbeat if we struggle to surround Mac with the talent he needs to be successful.

Interesting times for sure. Let's hope they don't blow it.

 

[flyfysher]

delete

 

[Ivan13]

I wouldn't mind Joe getting involved in the potential Tampa-Ottawa trade as the 3rd party to get some assets for eating some of the salary.

 

[flyfysher]

I take it you mean one more season of development before they should contend for the SC. I'm fine with the way Sakic has been developing the Avs the last couple of years. I see a SC window being set up, good scouting, good drafts, good cap management, good coaching, etc. No offense but I don't think a self-imposed deadline is necessary.

 

[CB Joe]

I have to disagree with the Avs having good scouting. I'd say the Avs scouting is mediocre at best. Who was the last depth player the Avs brought into the league and developed? Cody McLeod? I like Calvert a lot but having to spend so much in free agency to fill out the bottom six is going to cost the Avs in the long term. If you look over the roster it's easy to see the Avs have to rely on outside sources instead of the draft to get depth players. Soderberg, Calvert, Kerfoot, and Bourque had to be brought in through free agency. Nieto from waivers. Wilson, Andrighetto, Compher, and Kamenev had to be acquired through trade. Not a single forward outside of the top line was drafted and developed by the Avs. If the Avs want long term success they need to be able to continuously draft and develop these type of players to keep salary costs down.

 

[Murzu]

I'll list players that are the most notable UFAs in the summer of 2019 in my opinion. Underlined ones are the players that I believe will test free agency and the ones that are bolded are the ones that I believe will test free agency AND we should try to sign.

Forwards:

- Jordan Eberle

- Matt Duchene (Guess the bridges are burned?)

- Joe Pavelski

- Artemi Panarin

- Tyler Seguin

- Jeff Skinner

- Blake Wheeler

- Gustav Nyquist

- Mats Zuccarello (Well, depending on the cost, I like him even though I didn't bold him.)

- Max Pacioretty (Like him, won't like the years and cap hit I'd assume. If the deal is reasonable I'd bring him on.)

- Adam Henrique

- Jakob Silfverberg

- Anders Lee (Someone will pay too much for him, and I think Isles will trade him in trade deadline.)


Defensemen:

- Erik Karlsson (Well, he could be traded soon and I expect him to be signed too before UFA but I'd love him here.)

- Tyler Myers (Jets are in cap trouble.)

- Jay Bouwmeester

- Alex Edler

- Zdeno Chara

- Marc Methot

- Anton Strålman (Unless Yzer works magic with him. They have to get rid of salary and he might not be re-signed.)

- Jake Gardiner

- Ryan Ellis

- Nate Schmidt


Goalies:

- Sergei Bobrovsky (Columbus has to really pay up but I don't think they have a choice.)

- Pekka Rinne

- Semyon Varlamov (Well, if he plays very very well and Grubauer doesn't show that he is capable of playing as number 1 goalie, I bet we sign him. But average Varly season and/or good Grubs season and I believe he is goner)

- Marc-Andre Fleury

- Cam Talbot

Notes:

* I don't think it will be a good UFA year. I trust that most of the upcoming UFAs will be re-signed by their current teams
* However there could be multiple good forwards to choose from. Maybe we get a "free" Skinner/Silfverberg

What do you guys think? Any cases where you think differently?

 

[Tommy Shelby]

I have to disagree with the Avs having good scouting. I'd say the Avs scouting is mediocre at best. Who was the last depth player the Avs brought into the league and developed? Cody McLeod? I like Calvert a lot but having to spend so much in free agency to fill out the bottom six is going to cost the Avs in the long term. If you look over the roster it's easy to see the Avs have to rely on outside sources instead of the draft to get depth players. Soderberg, Calvert, Kerfoot, and Bourque had to be brought in through free agency. Nieto from waivers. Wilson, Andrighetto, Compher, and Kamenev had to be acquired through trade. Not a single forward outside of the top line was drafted and developed by the Avs. If the Avs want long term success they need to be able to continuously draft and develop these type of players to keep salary costs down.

What's even more alarming is that opening night roster will have a grand total of 5 homegrown players, and only one (!) of them was drafted after pick #10. Only Vegas will have less.

Greer or Meloche or Lindholm might make the team for game 1 and change that number, but it's still something to think about in a wtf way.

 

[Foppberg]

I think the scouting has improved though, we just have yet to have the crop of good prospects arrive to the NHL. Timmins, Makar, Meloche, Kaut. And even guys like Kamenev, Bowers, or Francouz. We might not have drafted them but we did target them

 

[Raucherhusten]

I'll list players that are the most notable UFAs in the summer of 2019 in my opinion. Underlined ones are the players that I believe will test free agency and the ones that are bolded are the ones that I believe will test free agency AND we should try to sign.

Forwards:

- Jordan Eberle

- Matt Duchene (Guess the bridges are burned?)

- Joe Pavelski

- Artemi Panarin

- Tyler Seguin

- Jeff Skinner

- Blake Wheeler

- Gustav Nyquist

- Mats Zuccarello (Well, depending on the cost, I like him even though I didn't bold him.)

- Max Pacioretty (Like him, won't like the years and cap hit I'd assume. If the deal is reasonable I'd bring him on.)

- Adam Henrique

- Jakob Silfverberg

- Anders Lee (Someone will pay too much for him, and I think Isles will trade him in trade deadline.)


Defensemen:

- Erik Karlsson (Well, he could be traded soon and I expect him to be signed too before UFA but I'd love him here.)

- Tyler Myers (Jets are in cap trouble.)

- Jay Bouwmeester

- Alex Edler

- Zdeno Chara

- Marc Methot

- Anton Strålman (Unless Yzer works magic with him. They have to get rid of salary and he might not be re-signed.)

- Jake Gardiner

- Ryan Ellis

- Nate Schmidt


Goalies:

- Sergei Bobrovsky (Columbus has to really pay up but I don't think they have a choice.)

- Pekka Rinne

- Semyon Varlamov (Well, if he plays very very well and Grubauer doesn't show that he is capable of playing as number 1 goalie, I bet we sign him. But average Varly season and/or good Grubs season and I believe he is goner)

- Marc-Andre Fleury

- Cam Talbot

Notes:

* I don't think it will be a good UFA year. I trust that most of the upcoming UFAs will be re-signed by their current teams
* However there could be multiple good forwards to choose from. Maybe we get a "free" Skinner/Silfverberg

What do you guys think? Any cases where you think differently?

Yeah people who still think the 2019 FA wil be stacked with talent simply doesn't follow the market at all. Sure, a few good ones will still be there but they also will cost a lot - and we all know that overpaying for FA's is something most of us are not comfortable with. Besides Joe have to convince them to join the Avs in the first place - something he seems to struggle with lately.

Silverberg/Stone/Panarin/Skinner - all would be great additions if Jost is our future 2C. Our goaltending situation looks much better now, so does our D. We need to focus on forwards, but i'm pretty sure Sakic is aware of that.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Duchene still feels bad about the way he left Colorado.

When he's an UFA, he's going to sign here, with the understanding that he gets traded to a team that's on his list.
He is going to do this because he knows we should have gotten more for him in the last trade.
It's his way of helping out the team he adored as a child.

 

[cooler]

Would you guys be interested in a 3-way trade with Sens and Pittsburgh involving Duchene and Brassard.
For argument's sake let's say Duchene informs Dorion he doesn't want to be a part of another rebuild (wow, where have I heard that before) and he looks like an ideal fit in PITT. So Brass becomes expendable on Pens roster and they ship him off to Avalanche. Now, I know Derrick has a modified NTC with a 8 team block list but just imagine how much fun it would be to see that much players gone from Ottawa in just one season (Brassard, Turris, Hoffman, EK, Duchene, Anderson maybe)

 

[CB Joe]

I think the scouting has improved though, we just have yet to have the crop of good prospects arrive to the NHL. Timmins, Makar, Meloche, Kaut. And even guys like Kamenev, Bowers, or Francouz. We might not have drafted them but we did target them

It's a nice crop of players but they are all early draft picks. The players listed are an early 1st, mid 1st, early 2nd, and mid 2nd round pick. The Avs really need to start pulling players out of the mid to late rounds. Even if those players are role players at best. Kamenev, Bowers, and Compher were nice players to target but the Avs traded stars player to get them. The Avs can't be doing that much anymore.

 

[Foppberg]

 

[agentblack]

It's a nice crop of players but they are all early draft picks. The players listed are an early 1st, mid 1st, early 2nd, and mid 2nd round pick. The Avs really need to start pulling players out of the mid to late rounds. Even if those players are role players at best. Kamenev, Bowers, and Compher were nice players to target but the Avs traded stars player to get them. The Avs can't be doing that much anymore.

Yeah they for sure need some late round gems like a Palat badly , its that kinda stuff that'll put em ahead of the pack

 

[Murzu]

Silverberg/Stone/Panarin/Skinner - all would be great additions if Jost is our future 2C. Our goaltending situation looks much better now, so does our D. We need to focus on forwards, but i'm pretty sure Sakic is aware of that.

Yeah, I'd like even one of those. Stone and Panarin are EASports level kind of dreams but Silfverberg and Skinner are realistic options IMO.

 

[Patagonia]

It's a nice crop of players but they are all early draft picks. The players listed are an early 1st, mid 1st, early 2nd, and mid 2nd round pick. The Avs really need to start pulling players out of the mid to late rounds. Even if those players are role players at best. Kamenev, Bowers, and Compher were nice players to target but the Avs traded stars player to get them. The Avs can't be doing that much anymore.

I really don't understand your point with these players. AVs are unlikely to have a bigger haul if they target players whereby their values are inflated, likely based on draft position. Sakic targeted the best available players and adds possible hidden gems/picks.

The players you mentioned were excellent choices:

Kamenev - excellent AHL career, difficulties in making the NSH lineup due to their depth;
Bowers - College Freshman season that exceeded Tkachuk 2018 - top 5 pick;
Compher - hard working defensive player with some offensive in a depth 3rd line role.
Sens 2019 1st RD - Projected high selection, surprise after nearly reaching the finals in 2017.

Too soon in judging they will be role players especially (except Compher) have not played in the NHL.

 

[Hasbro]

I wouldn't mind Joe getting involved in the potential Tampa-Ottawa trade as the 3rd party to get some assets for eating some of the salary.

Dorion might.

 

[LieutenantDangle]

This is going to be a brutal offseason

 

[chet1926]

I'll repost something from the last thread to get the conversation going again:

"How can anyone in their right mind be OK with possible regression?"
Because we're still a rebuilding team and the development of our young players and prospects is just as important as the results in the standings to me. I obviously want the Avs to win every game and make the playoffs, but I don't want to hinder the future development of the team in the process. I know you think signing Stastny wouldn't have hindered it, but that's already been discussed.

"What if Ottawa is not as bad as people think, and we end up with a mid first like 12-16 range?"
I think all the Jack Hughes talk isn't entirely serious. It's basically a meme at this point. The fact is, we've already won that trade and pretty much any player we draft with the Ottawa pick will be a great bonus. Nobody is banking the future of this team on Jack Hughes.

Let's say we regress, and miss the playoffs. Why would any potential good UFAs want to come to a middling team with no chance of winning the Cup?
Maybe we miss out on the top ones, but are you claiming that no free agents would ever want to sign here and play with MacKinnon and the rest of our young guys? If we can see that this team has a good future, then so can free agents. And if it genuinely looks like the team doesn't have a good future, then free agents aren't going to fix the problem.

"At some point or another you have to get better for a prolonged period of time."
Yes, and the way to do this is drafting well, developing from within, and filling holes carefully in free agency. I can't think of a single team that signed a top free agent and as a result went from being a rebuilding team to a contender. In fact, the majority of teams who sign top free agents end up regretting the deal.

Also, can everyone please remember that the offseason isn't over and Sakic may not be done making moves.

1. Being content with regression, is simply loser talk in my opinion. The goal of professional sports is to win not continually collect high draft picks. No one in here is talking about selling off the future to try and win a championship. I'm more so frustrated that we did absolutely nothing to address our weak points this offseason to try and remain a team that can fight for a playoff spot. It's like Sakic knew he had a weakness on the second line, but sat on his hands and couldn't get anything done to help it in the slightest. And now he is relying on the hope that certain young players continue to progress, and IMO that is just hope which may work it may not.

2. It sure seems like many posters in here are pretty damn sure we are going to be drafting a top tier player come next draft with Ottawa's pick. I wouldn't count on something like that happen. If it does great, but we shouldn't be counting on it.

3. Good UFAs don't want to come to teams that consistently lose. Sure we can get the Calvert/Cole's of the world to come, that's no big deal and they don't improve your team much if any. Name the last big name UFA to sign with the Avs. Don't say Iginla, because that was a guy well past his prime that not a ton of teams were interested in. It doesn't matter how much young talent you have, if you haven't proven that you can win on a consistent basis the likelihood of quality UFAs, that actually have an decent impact on the team, coming here is not particularly high as proven by Tavares not even giving us the time of day even though we clearly had interest.

4. There has never been a championship team that was solely built around the draft. But I will say that your statement is accurate as well. There does have to be a nice mixture of both drafting/developing, trading and UFA to build a contending team. We've been a poor team for over a decade now. Something has got to change. We can't continue in mediocrity, we finally have some good pieces in place but if we fail to address weak points via other methods we will continue to be a poor team with very little success. We don't have any prospects/players outside of Jost right now that have 2nd line potential, and who knows if he actually ever hits that potential. That is a problem that has to be addressed externally. We can't succeed as a 1 line team.