Auston Matthews Scoring Peak (full season)
- Thread starter illpucks
- Start date
The Crypto Guy
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2017
- 26,577
- 33,819
If he hits 65 is he equal to Ovi (who is only other player to hit 65 since lockout)?
The Crypto Guy
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2017
- 26,577
- 33,819
Goal scoring ability? Yes. He should be a consistent 50 goal scorer in the league over the next bunch of seasons and i could see him hitting 65 in one of them.
For peak goal scoring only - Ovechkin hit 65 in a season where hitting 65 was more difficult. Id guess he'd have to surpass it slightly to match the goal scoring peak, maybe closer to 68-70.
Buck Naked
Can't-Stand-Ya
- Aug 18, 2016
- 3,762
- 5,672
lawrence
Registered User
- May 19, 2012
- 16,024
- 6,840
the answer I wanted to choose is not available, 50 goals as a centreman is hard to come by especially in a 82 game season where he's not facing the same 6 teams over and over again.
ovikovy817
Registered User
Eternal Leaf
Registered User
And it only took him 70 games.
If they had finished the final part of that season, he was on track for 55 goals.
I don't think it's a reach to say he could pot 60-65 at the height of his peak.
Most goal scorers like Matthews hit their peak in or before their 5th season. That’s not to say Matthews won’t score a lot of goals over the next decade, it’s just unlikely he’ll improve his goal scoring any further.
Given the state of the North Division, his shooting percentage falling back down to Earth a bit, and a longer season to even things out, I’m gonna go with 55 goals.
Given the state of the North Division, his shooting percentage falling back down to Earth a bit, and a longer season to even things out, I’m gonna go with 55 goals.
Subway Schenn
Registered User
Team Cozens
Registered User
The way the NHL is becoming a no contact sport and getting to play with Marner and Hyman? I’d say 60 fairly easy. Peak Ovechkin would have got 80 in this situation.
It’s hard to come by, but Matthews also doesn’t play the game like most centremen. He doesn’t see the ice as well, and doesn’t make those crisp passes to make his teammates better. He’s a shooting machine, he won’t look off a shot to pass, he’s probably not going to put up more than 40 assists in a season.
lawrence
Registered User
- May 19, 2012
- 16,024
- 6,840
You're out of your f in mind. how many players scored 60 goals in the past 10 years? Lets go back even further how many players hit 60 goals in the past 20 years?
silly discussion here.
Sundinisagod
****
Sundinisagod
****
- Jun 22, 2018
- 6,983
- 15,817
Last season he probably falls short, but this season even if it was a normal schedule he would've gone above 60 if he was atleast relatively healthy. I agree I think he could hit 70 if everything went right but I'll say 65. I think these next 2--3 seasons will be his last real opportunities for an all-time great goal scoring season.
I don't really think it was that much more difficult. If you look at the top 5-10-20-30 goal scorers there's like a 3-4 goal difference with the top 5 being ahead in 2007-08 compared to 2018-19 which is the last full season. Either way whether people like it or not the ice time and powerplay time each player gets compared to the rest of the top scorers is just as relevant in comparing their full season totals, and based on ability alone Matthews is already fairly equal to Ovechkin's peak in his past 90 or so games despite not being able to shoot the puck properly for about 20 games this season.
I'm hesitant to go much above 60. Granted, his production this year is crazy considering how inefficient the Leafs have been on the PP which seems like an outlier event.
Edit: Damn didn't realize given how horrific we've been on the PP the last 2 months we were still 10th in the league and Matthews was tied for 3rd in PP goals.
Edit: Damn didn't realize given how horrific we've been on the PP the last 2 months we were still 10th in the league and Matthews was tied for 3rd in PP goals.
Yeah that wrist injury doesn't help either. I think a normal schedule would maybe balance it out a little bit, but I think as long as he's able to use that shot I don't see him scoring much below 60 in a full season until he exits his prime.
Matthews is only 23 years old though. He started young, but I don't think that's necessarily the standard for goal-scoring peak. Here's a look at the age at which some of the best goal-scorers of all-time have peaked:
Bobby Hull goal-scoring peak - Age ~28-30
Brett Hull goal-scoring peak - Age ~25-27
Phil Esposito goal-scoring peak - Age ~28-31
Pavel Bure goal-scoring peak - Age ~28-39
Then you have some names at a younger age, but all have a bit of unique circumstances that impacted their primes:
Stamkos goal-scoring peak - Age ~21-23, but then injuries and he never really recovered. Who knows what he might have done at ages ~25+ without injuries.
Ovechkin goal-scoring peak ages ~22-24....but he's also a bit unique in that he fell off a cliff at age 25 for two seasons for whatever reason. He might have kept it up 1-2 years longer if not
Mario Lemieux Goal-Scoring peak....injuries....take your pick....age 23, 27, 30, or something else...Not a great comparable.
Wayne Gretzky Goal-scoring peak ages 21-23. But he's a bit unique, with ~200 points and being a playmaker first
I think based on all of this, there's a very good chance Auston Matthews might only be hitting his goal-scoring peak age over the next ~3-4 years or so
